Solving the Housing Crisis
J. Malone, Student Number 17215633
20/04/2019
Main Research Question: What if Ireland introduce the Housing First plan?
My project is about the recent housing crisis in Ireland, especially Dublin. More importantly how to reduce this figure and this is so important to prevent homeless levels rising also. Since ive started this project the number of people on the Dublin housing list has risen from the initial 17745 already with this number now exceeding 17800. [journal 18] With politicians, council and governments worldwide trying to reduce these numbers why has it not worked? First of all in these Dublin areas alone this was the amount of people sleeping rough recorded one night, with Dublin city the clear area where work is needed.[pmvtrust]
| Location | Number |
|---|---|
| Dublin City | 121 |
| Fingal | 5 |
| Dun Laoghaire Rathdown | 7 |
| South Dublin | 12 |
| Dublin Parks | 11 |
| Total | 156 |
On average these figures are increasing every year and unfortunately during the coldest parts of the year is when this number is the highest.
x <- c(1:12)
y <- c(148, 124, 116, 110, 108, 98, 90, 106, 112, 119, 145, 168)
plot(x, y, xlab = "Months", ylab = "Number of People", main = "Average Rough Sleepers in Dublin", type = "o", pch = 20,)
Ireland once had a lower homeless rate compared to Finland until the Finnish government introduced the Housing First plan. The number of people homeless in Finland was twice the amount compared to Ireland in 2008 but now in 2019 Ireland has over 5 times the number of homeless people.(Council to Homeless Persons, 2019) My main research question was if we introduced this plan how could we match the results of Finland, a country with a similar population. I based my models on what happens when this was introduced.
The first table shows the dcrease in the number of homeless people since it was introduced in Finland compared t Ireland.
| Ireland | Finland | Year |
|---|---|---|
| 1300 | 3200 | 2008 |
| 1500 | 3000 | 2009 |
| 1700 | 2600 | 2010 |
| 2100 | 2400 | 2011 |
| 2350 | 1800 | 2012 |
| 2800 | 1600 | 2013 |
| 2800 | 1650 | 2014 |
| 3800 | 1200 | 2015 |
| 4700 | 1100 | 2016 |
| 5600 | 800 | 2017 |
| 5900 | 400 | 2018 |
| 6100 | 100 | 2019 |
x1 <- c(1:12)
a <- c(3200, 3000, 2600, 2400, 1800, 1600, 1650, 1200, 1100, 800, 400, 100)
plot(x1,a, xlab = "First 12 Years", ylab = "Number of People", main = "Homeless People in Finland Since Housing First Plan", type = "o", pch = 20, col = "blue")
par(mfcol = c(2,2))With these incredible results this is the model I want the irish government to apply. Instead of putting all the funds into temporary housing, the idea is to offer permanent housing but also support and not temporary accomadation without support where people can fall into the same traps which led them to be without a home in the first place. AS i found before the number of vacant building in Dublin is said to be 1000.(Irish Times 2019)Your first reason against this would be funding but in 2016 in just the dublin region in 2016 alone 96,254,326 million was spent on providing services for the homeless.(homelessdublin.ie) I believe with these changes this is how our graph can change with these figures in the next 5 years.
x <- c(1:5)
y <- c(6100, 5500, 4500,3300,1800)
plot(x, y, xlab = "Years", ylab = "Number of People", main = "Homeless People in Ireland After Housing First Plan", type = "o", pch = 20, col = "green")
With my research these are the figures i believe best represent what we can do within the first 5 years and this will continue to drop and hopefully end up like Finland where we will have no rough sleepers on the streets.
Taking the similar popluations and economic situations into account. In the contrary during my research i feel if we do not act fast o think numbers could rise dramatically in the next 5 years and our graph coyld look like this.
x <- c(1:5)
y <- c(6100, 6900, 7750, 8680, 9700)
plot(x, y, xlab = "Years", ylab = "Number of People", main = "Homeless People in Ireland Without the Housing First Plan", type = "o", pch = 20, col = "red")
Terrifyingly nearly 10000 people without a home in Ireland.
I think with more time i would like to cost renovating these vacant buildings to turn them into accomadtation for the homeless. With this figure id like to compare it against what the government are spending now to show how worthwhile this plan is. Id also like to go into more depth on the cost of keeping constant support for these people until its seemed fit for them to be alone and not fall into the same traps. Lastly how the number of homeless initially would cahnge when all shelters are removed would this be a disaster as my last variable.
References: MacNamee, S. (2019). ‘If i apply for a house in Dublin today - I will be waiting 19 years’:17,745 on dublin housing list. [online] TheJournal.ie. Available at: https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-crisis-waiting-list-4490533-Fe2019/ [Acessed 11 Feb. 2019]. Peter Mc Verry Trust. (2019). Facts and Figures - Peter Mc Verry Trust. [Online] Available at: https://www.pmvtrust>ie/news-media/facts-and-figures/ [Accessed 13 Feb. 2019] Council to Homeless Persons. (2019). VHC Keynote Plenary Address: Ending Homelessness in Ireland, Denmark and Finland? - Council to Homeless Persons. [online] Available at: http://chp.org.au/vhc-keynote-plenary-address-ending-homelessness-ireland-denmark-finland/ [Accessed 20 Apr. 2019]. The Irish Times. (2019). Number of vacant homes in Dublin said to be between 900 and 1,000. [online] Available at: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/number-of-vacant-homes-in-dublin-said-to-be-between-900-and-1-000-1.3368771 [Accessed 20 Apr. 2019]. Homelessdublin.ie. (2019). Funding - Dublin Region Homeless Executive. [online] Available at: https://www.homelessdublin.ie/info/funding [Accessed 20 Apr. 2019]. Maguire, S. (2019). Fix it like Finland: ‘Nowadays there isn’t a single rough sleeper on Helsinki streets’. [online] TheJournal.ie. Available at: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/fix-it-like-finland-nowadays-there-isnt-a-single-rough-sleeper-on-helsinki-streets-3960600-Apr2018/ [Accessed 16 Mar. 2019].