Purpose

We are still running into issues with solving for S and diff. Steve suggested that Magicc might not have had this problem because of the multiple temperature boxes and we thought that since we could easily test that capability with the recent developments in Hector!!

Methods

  1. Fit Hector global temp with diff of 2.5 to CESM1-CAM5 data.
  2. Used the fits from part 1 to generate “hector emulating cesm” land and ocean temp.
  3. Fit Hector land and ocean temp to hector emulating cesm" land and ocean temp at various diff ranging from 0.5 to 20 for S, alpha, and volscl.

What is the relationship between S and diff?

Hmm this is what we saw when we did a similar exercise but only git to global temperature.

How do the fits (land T, ocean T) compare to the comparison data?

So the pink global temp is the CESM1-CAM5 temperature data that we compared with in step 1. The blue is the Hector output we fit to in step 3. The black lines are the different Hector fits that range in S from 2 to 19 and diff from 0.5 to 20. I would like to stress that while we did not fit to heat flux or global temp in part 3 I wanted to see what was going on so I included them in this plot.

We do not see much of a different in the 21st century temperature time series (global, ocean, land) even though those runs use a wide range of S and diff combinations. But we do see large differences in the 21st century heat flux data!

Conclusions

  1. This exercise failed to resolve the S and diff unidentifiable problem. Leads us still to question how the MAGICC team got their results.
  2. future heat flux data is looking like a good option for resolving the issue but the historical data does not look like it will help us out…