The Prospect of Five Stars after Trade War 2019

Kyaw Thu
9-4-2019

Objective of the study

To verify the forecast of the tickers from the article below https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-american-companies-benefit-end-064056998.html.

The tickers include

  • AAPL (Apple Inc);
  • TSLA ( Tesla Inc);
  • BA (Boeing);
  • SBUX (Starbucks);
  • ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland)

Getting Data from Yahoo Finance and GuruFocus


Running BatchGetSymbols for:
   tickers = AAPL, TSLA, BA, SBUX, ADM
   Downloading data for benchmark ticker | Not Cached
AAPL | yahoo (1|5) | Not Cached - Got 100% of valid prices | Got it!
TSLA | yahoo (2|5) | Not Cached - Got 100% of valid prices | You got it!
BA | yahoo (3|5) | Not Cached - Got 100% of valid prices | Feels good!
SBUX | yahoo (4|5) | Not Cached - Got 100% of valid prices | Nice!
ADM | yahoo (5|5) | Not Cached - Got 100% of valid prices | OK!
  ticker   src download.status total.obs perc.benchmark.dates
1   AAPL yahoo              OK        41                    1
2   TSLA yahoo              OK        41                    1
3     BA yahoo              OK        41                    1
4   SBUX yahoo              OK        41                    1
5    ADM yahoo              OK        41                    1
  threshold.decision
1               KEEP
2               KEEP
3               KEEP
4               KEEP
5               KEEP

Adjusted Close of the Five

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Current Outlook

Symbol LastPrice Change PerChge
AAPL 200.00 3.10 1.57
SBUX 75.20 0.17 0.23
BA 374.52 -17.41 -4.44
TSLA 273.20 -1.76 -0.64
ADM 43.09 0.16 0.37

Time Series of the Five

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It shows that

Except Boeing , the list of tickers are signaling up in the market.

TRUMP Comment about the Trade War on China

“It's going to be a great deal. If it's not a great deal, we're not doing it. It's going well.

  • We're very well along on the deal. It's a very complex deal. one of the biggest deals ever made, maybe the biggest deal ever made.

  • It will be a great deal for our farmers. Technology, intellectual property theft. Everything is covered.”

Why AAPL Survive from the Trade War

China is a big market for Apple products and due to the tariff, the import of iPhone from China could be more expensive to America.

The Boeing

Boeing is currently in crisis mode due to two Boeing 737 Max plane crashes within the last year. Although the company could potentially fix the problem with software and many airlines are still ordering the plane, Boeing could use any sort of lift from increased China demand. John Overdeck And David Siegel's Two Sigma Advisors raised its stake by 34% to just under 1 million shares at the end of December.

Archer Daniels Midland

AMDcould be a winner as American farmers will likely benefit from any sort of commodity tariff lowering on China’s part. Archer Daniels Midland is a big food processes and commodities trading company. Cliff Asness' AQR Capital Management owned over 3.2 million shares at the end of Q4.

Telsa

Tesla would benefit because it has a lot of intellectual property to protect. Tesla would also face less threat of Chinese government retaliation. Tesla previously got caught in the tariff battle due to increased Chinese tariffs and responded by accelerating the building of its Shanghai factory which hopefully will make around half a million vehicles per year in around five years. Many elite funds are short Tesla given its short float of around 20%.

Starbucks

Starbucks could be another winner in that it would face less retaliation if the trade war worsened. Starbucks has big expansion plans in China and the chain needs the necessary local approvals to make those plans a reality. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square established a new position of 11.75 million shares in Starbucks as of the end of December 2018. That position makes up 12.7% of Pershing Square's equity 13f portfolio.

Credit to the Insider Monkey Team for the fact findings.

Further Study: Detail Analysis in Financial Data

Symbol MktCap_B D2E PE PEG ProfitMar EBITDA_B DEPS ROA ROE IntCover WACC
AAPL 928.91 0.97 17.76 1.31 22.72 79.52 12.12 10.89 46.05 20.01 7.30
TSLA 47.19 2.43 NA 2.24 -4.55 1.63 -5.72 -0.54 -17.79 NA 1.99
BA 211.41 40.85 20.95 0.89 10.34 13.96 17.85 6.44 985.40 24.84 10.66
ADM 24.13 0.44 13.51 -1.41 2.81 2.86 3.19 2.98 9.70 5.54 6.81
SBUX 93.52 -3.17 33.44 2.25 11.98 5.13 2.25 12.17 210.29 17.06 4.79

Market Captitalisation :USD Billion

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Profitability

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Earning Before Interest and Tax

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Diluted EPS

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Capital Structure: Debt to Equity

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Return on Equity

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Liquidity

Symbol CurrentRatio Quick
AAPL 1.30 1.25
TSLA 0.83 0.52
BA 1.08 0.31
ADM 1.75 1.00
SBUX 1.41 1.16

Risk Measure

Symbol Beta A_Zscore Fscore
AAPL 0.91 3.92 6
TSLA -0.25 1.52 5
BA 1.43 3.08 8
ADM 0.86 3.32 5
SBUX 0.42 4.30 5

Conclusion and Comment

The verification of the Winner Stocks after the Trade War get satisfactory results. The stocks of BA and ADM are the negative percentage change at the moment that could wait and see in the future.

Financial analysis data shows that

  • Profit margin: TSLA is only symbol showing negative value
  • EBITDA: AAPL is the best profit maker in the group
  • ROE : Boeing and Starbucks have extreme return on equity among the group
  • Diluted EPS: TSLA shows negative impact on earning if securities are converted.

Capital Structure

  • Market Capitalisation: AAPL has huge market value compare to the group
  • Debt to Equity: BA is very high geared company. But BA shows well managed on its geared with pretty interest cover.

Liquidy and Risk Measure

Liquidity

  • TSLA shows the sign of insovent risk

Risk Measure

  • Beta: TSLA expressed as Negative beta and its Z score 1.52 means it is in the distress zone. Hope for the positive impact to TSLA if China make a good deal.