Water Festival and MMK2USD Analysis

Kyaw Thu
4-4-2019

Objective of the study

To review the FX of USD and MMK between 2018 Q4 to 2019 Q1 (180 days exactly) It will include

  • Last week data
  • Plot of Chart series including RSI
  • Model precictions
  • Forecast plot

Last Week Data

[1] "USD/MMK"

            USD.MMK
2019-03-26 1519.211
2019-03-27 1520.668
2019-03-28 1519.883
2019-03-29 1516.096
2019-03-30 1513.250
2019-03-31 1513.250

Price Calendar 2018 Q4

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Price Calendar 2019 Q1

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Chart Series Plot

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Forecast Model Prediction

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Plot of Forecast ARIMA Model

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Daily AssetPrice Model for 180 days

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Comment and Conclusion

According to the data analysis, we found that

  • USD to MMK rate is declined after second week of March
  • RSI 37.5 shows that the demand of USD is slightly weak in the end of Q1
  • Due to Myanmar water festival season in April
  • Prediction model forecasted that the random walk between 1508 - 1540.