Background

• Instituition : Portugese Banking Instituition

• Product : Term Deposit

• Campaign: Direct Marketing

• Means : Phone Calls

• Research Question : What makes a client subscribe for Term Deposit ?

Relation Between Age and Subscription

• At Alpha 0.05, the p-value is less than our choosen alpha, hence we conclude that age has a significant effect on subscription.

• Mean age of customers who subscribed to the term deposit is significantly different from the mean age of customers who did not subscribe to the term deposit and Age is positively skewed.

• As seen in the graph below customers aged between 25 and 40 seemed to have subscribed more for a term deposit.

• We could conclude that mid aged customers is more concerened with savings for their future than other age groups.

            - Graph plotting age of the customers who subscribed to the Term Desposit 

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$age by bank$Subscription
## t = -4.7795, df = 5258.5, p-value = 1.805e-06
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -1.4129336 -0.5909889
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##          39.91119          40.91315

Dependency between Job and Subscription

            -  Admin: (29.1%)
            -  Blue collar : (13.8%)
            -  Technician : (15.7%)  

• Customers from the above job role have subscribed more for the term deposit.As against ,

           - unemployed (3.1%)
           - student (5.9%) 

who have not subscribed much to the term deposit.

• p-value being significant, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is dependency between job and subscription.

• Self-employed, management and entrepreneur have not subscribed to the term deposit in large proportions, one of the reasons may be that they would like to invest more in shares or bonds which helps them make more money than term deposit

• Hence we conclude that the salaried class subscribe more to term deposits.

## 
##  
##    Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## |                       N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## |           N / Row Total |
## |           N / Col Total |
## |         N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
## 
##  
## Total Observations in Table:  41188 
## 
##  
##               | bank$Subscription 
##      bank$job |        no |       yes | Row Total | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##        admin. |      9070 |      1352 |     10422 | 
##               |     3.423 |    26.961 |           | 
##               |     0.870 |     0.130 |     0.253 | 
##               |     0.248 |     0.291 |           | 
##               |     0.220 |     0.033 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##   blue-collar |      8616 |       638 |      9254 | 
##               |    19.926 |   156.951 |           | 
##               |     0.931 |     0.069 |     0.225 | 
##               |     0.236 |     0.138 |           | 
##               |     0.209 |     0.015 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##  entrepreneur |      1332 |       124 |      1456 | 
##               |     1.240 |     9.767 |           | 
##               |     0.915 |     0.085 |     0.035 | 
##               |     0.036 |     0.027 |           | 
##               |     0.032 |     0.003 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##     housemaid |       954 |       106 |      1060 | 
##               |     0.191 |     1.507 |           | 
##               |     0.900 |     0.100 |     0.026 | 
##               |     0.026 |     0.023 |           | 
##               |     0.023 |     0.003 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##    management |      2596 |       328 |      2924 | 
##               |     0.001 |     0.006 |           | 
##               |     0.888 |     0.112 |     0.071 | 
##               |     0.071 |     0.071 |           | 
##               |     0.063 |     0.008 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       retired |      1286 |       434 |      1720 | 
##               |    37.814 |   297.849 |           | 
##               |     0.748 |     0.252 |     0.042 | 
##               |     0.035 |     0.094 |           | 
##               |     0.031 |     0.011 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## self-employed |      1272 |       149 |      1421 | 
##               |     0.097 |     0.767 |           | 
##               |     0.895 |     0.105 |     0.035 | 
##               |     0.035 |     0.032 |           | 
##               |     0.031 |     0.004 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##      services |      3646 |       323 |      3969 | 
##               |     4.375 |    34.458 |           | 
##               |     0.919 |     0.081 |     0.096 | 
##               |     0.100 |     0.070 |           | 
##               |     0.089 |     0.008 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       student |       600 |       275 |       875 | 
##               |    40.090 |   315.775 |           | 
##               |     0.686 |     0.314 |     0.021 | 
##               |     0.016 |     0.059 |           | 
##               |     0.015 |     0.007 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##    technician |      6013 |       730 |      6743 | 
##               |     0.147 |     1.156 |           | 
##               |     0.892 |     0.108 |     0.164 | 
##               |     0.165 |     0.157 |           | 
##               |     0.146 |     0.018 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##    unemployed |       870 |       144 |      1014 | 
##               |     0.985 |     7.758 |           | 
##               |     0.858 |     0.142 |     0.025 | 
##               |     0.024 |     0.031 |           | 
##               |     0.021 |     0.003 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       unknown |       293 |        37 |       330 | 
##               |     0.000 |     0.001 |           | 
##               |     0.888 |     0.112 |     0.008 | 
##               |     0.008 |     0.008 |           | 
##               |     0.007 |     0.001 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##  Column Total |     36548 |      4640 |     41188 | 
##               |     0.887 |     0.113 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## 
##  
## Statistics for All Table Factors
## 
## 
## Pearson's Chi-squared test 
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 =  961.2424     d.f. =  11     p =  4.189763e-199 
## 
## 
## 

Factors - Contact Type, Contact Month and Contact Day

   - Graph plotting Contact Type, Month and Day for customers who subscribed to the Term Deposit

##               P-value       Significance      
## Contact Type  9.481264e-190 significant       
## Contact Month 0             highly significant
## Contact Day   2.958482e-05  significant

• During the Campaign program, 63.5% of the customers were contacted through cellular out of which 14.7% subscribed to the term deposit and rest 36.5% of the customers were contacted through telephone 5.2% subscribed to the term deposit.

• Out of the customers who subscribed to the term deposit 83% were contacted through cellular, hence we conclude that bank customers who are contacted through cellular tend to subscribe to term deposit

• There is high dependency between Month contacted and subscription, 33.4% of the customers have been contacted in May, out of which 6.4% of the customers subscribed to the term deposit. However, it has been a good month since 19.1% of the customers who subscribed to the term deposit were contacted in May

• While only 1.3% of the customers were contacted in the month of March, 50.5% out of them subscribed to term deposit

• During the campaign program, 22.5% of the customers who subscribed to the term deposit were contacted on Thursday.

Relation Between Duration and Subscription

• p-value is less than our choosen alpha 0.05, hence we conclude that Last contact duration has significant effect on subscription.

• Mean Duration of call with customers who subscribed the term deposit is significantly different from mean duration of call with customers who did not subscribe the term deposit.

• Duration of last call is positively skewed

• Higher the duration spoken to the customers, more is the posibility of them subscribing to the term deposit.

• As per the below graph, maximum positive subscription results have been obtained when the call duration was between 400 and 600 seconds.

          - Graph of Last contact duration for customers who have subscribed to Term Deposit

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$duration by bank$Subscription
## t = -55.5, df = 4957.5, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -344.0859 -320.6068
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##          220.8448          553.1912

Tests between interdependents - the results of which relates to subscription.

• Correlation test between campaign and Duration.

• P value being significant, there is negative correlation between number of calls made and duration of calls in this campaign.

• The duration of phone call was high for only few contacts that responded. More the duration i.e, the client responded the higher possibility of subscribing to term deposit. The results shows why only 11.24% of sample size subscribed for term deposit, not many calls were responded.

## 
##  Pearson's product-moment correlation
## 
## data:  bank$campaign and bank$duration
## t = -14.588, df = 41186, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -0.08130044 -0.06208471
## sample estimates:
##         cor 
## -0.07169923

Factors - Consumer Price Index, Consumer Confidence Index

• At Alpha = 0.05, the p-value is less than our choosen alpha, hence we conclude that Consumer Price Index has significant effect on subscription.

• The mean of consumer price index of the group of consumers who subscribed to the term deposit is signifivantly different from mean consumer price index of the group of consumers who did not subscribe to the term deposit

• Correlation between Consumer Price Index and Subscription is weak and negative meaning more consumers subscribe to term deposit if consumer price index is less

• At Alpha = 0.05, the p-value is less than our choosen alpha, hence we conclude that Consumer confidence index has significant effect on subscription.

• The mean consumer confidence index of the group of consumers who subscribed to the term deposit is signifivantly different from mean consumer confidence index of the group of consumers who did not subscribe to the term deposit

• Correlation between Consumer Confidence Index and Subscription is weak and positive meaning when the consumer confidence index goes down , the chances of subcribing to term deposit increses.

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$cons.price.idx by bank$Subscription
## t = 24.082, df = 5472.5, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  0.2290714 0.2696708
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##          93.60376          93.35439

## 
##  Pearson's product-moment correlation
## 
## data:  bank_1$cons.price.idx and bank_1$Subscription
## t = -27.903, df = 41186, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -0.1456771 -0.1267204
## sample estimates:
##        cor 
## -0.1362112

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$cons.conf.idx by bank$Subscription
## t = -8.6365, df = 5258.3, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -0.9856585 -0.6209660
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##         -40.59310         -39.78978

## 
##  Pearson's product-moment correlation
## 
## data:  bank_1$cons.conf.idx and bank_1$Subscription
## t = 11.154, df = 41186, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  0.04524442 0.06450127
## sample estimates:
##        cor 
## 0.05487795

Dependency Between Previous campaign outcome and Current campaign subscription.

• P value being 0 , shows strong dependency between previous outcome and current subscription.

• out of 4640 clients who subscribed for term deposit during this campaign , 894 of them previously subscribed in last campaign went for another subscription this campaign.

• 605 clients who failed to suscribe in the previous campaign subscribed in the current campaign.

• The above test reveals the impact of current campaign on subscription.

• 88% who haven’t suscribed falls under nonexistent feature of previous outcome.

## 
##  
##    Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## |                       N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## |           N / Row Total |
## |           N / Col Total |
## |         N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
## 
##  
## Total Observations in Table:  41188 
## 
##  
##               | bank$Subscription 
## bank$poutcome |        no |       yes | Row Total | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       failure |      3647 |       605 |      4252 | 
##               |     4.207 |    33.141 |           | 
##               |     0.858 |     0.142 |     0.103 | 
##               |     0.100 |     0.130 |           | 
##               |     0.089 |     0.015 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##   nonexistent |     32422 |      3141 |     35563 | 
##               |    23.728 |   186.899 |           | 
##               |     0.912 |     0.088 |     0.863 | 
##               |     0.887 |     0.677 |           | 
##               |     0.787 |     0.076 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       success |       479 |       894 |      1373 | 
##               |   448.651 |  3533.897 |           | 
##               |     0.349 |     0.651 |     0.033 | 
##               |     0.013 |     0.193 |           | 
##               |     0.012 |     0.022 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##  Column Total |     36548 |      4640 |     41188 | 
##               |     0.887 |     0.113 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## 
##  
## Statistics for All Table Factors
## 
## 
## Pearson's Chi-squared test 
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 =  4230.524     d.f. =  2     p =  0 
## 
## 
## 

Factors - Housing Loan, Personal Loan, Marital Status, Level of Education, Credit Default

##                    P-value        Significance     
## Housing loan       "0.05829448"   "Not Significant"
## Personal loan      "0.5786753"    "Not Significant"
## Marital Status     "2.068015e-26" "Significant"    
## Level of Education "3.305189e-38" "Significant"    
## Default            "5.161958e-89" "Significant"

• 54.6% of the customers who have subscribed to term deposit are married, hence we conclude that married individuals are more interested in subscribing to term deposits incomparision to single individuals (34.9%) and divorced individuals (10.3%)

• 36% and 22.2% of the individuals who have subscribed to term deposit have University Degree and completed high school respectively.

• Hence we conclude that banks should primarily target customers who have university degree and then customers who have completed high school, since they seem interested in subscribing to a term deposit.

• There are only 3 customers who have defaulted and they have not subscribed the term deposit

• 12.9% of the people who have not defaulted have subscribed to the term deposit, while 90.5% of the people who have subscrbed have not defaulted.

Conclusion

• 4640 customers subscribed to the term deposit in the current campaign as against 1373 customers in the previous campaign. Hence we conclude that the current market campaign was successful in comparison to the previous campaign.

• Negative confidence index indicates that people reduce spending and save more. In our dataset we have more high negative index, which could be a possible reason for increase in the number of subscriptions.

• As per our analysis the following categories of people have high probability of subscribing to a Term Deposit. (1) Mid Age Individual (2) Completed University Degree (3) Admin or technical job (4) Either married or single