Background

• Fracking would bring new technologies–and impacts–to South Africa
• Several applications for shale gas exploration have been made in South Africa over the last 10 years
• Environmental Assessments and most public interest have focused on the Karoo, but recent exploration applications were filed for eastern SA

Objectives

• Describe perceptions of fracking among members of local communities in South Africa
• Identify research and policy priorities related to fracking among South African citizens
• Apply ‘lessons learned’ from the Bakken region in rural North Dakota, USA²

Methods

• Focus groups with community members in four towns (see map below)
• Online survey of anyone in SA

Findings

• Participants in this study were almost universally opposed to fracking.
• Study participants saw little benefit to fracking either economically or environmentally.
• South Africans base a substantial amount of their objections to fracking on potential impacts to water: primarily effects to water quality, and to a lesser extent, water quantity and availability.
• Study participants seem less aware of how production-scale fracking would alter rural landscapes and impact local infrastructure. We understand why communities and environmental groups seek to fight fracking in South Africa, but they must also prepare to be proactive about impacts should fracking proceed.

Map of South Africa highlighting KwaZulu-Natal province and the four towns in which focus groups were held. Broken line represents the area within the scope of the Shale Gas Development Strategic Environmental Assessment³, which focused on the Karoo region.

Where do South Africans expect fracking to occur?

Interestingly, although KwaZulu-Natal was the highest-reported province of residence among survey respondents (about one-third), just over 10% of respondents believed KwaZulu-Natal would be affected by fracking. This suggests low public awareness of potential energy development quite near to home.

Relative distribution of survey respondents (n=118) by the provinces in which they live, and the provinces they believe will be affected by fracking.

Associations with fracking

Survey respondents were generally quite negative about fracking and most frequently environmental impacts, especially water.

Associations survey respondents made with fracking in general and in South Africa, specifically. Size relates to frequency of response.

Concerns about impacts

Agricultural and natural resource concerns

Most frequently-identified concerns among survey respondents about potential fracking impacts to agricultural and natural resources. Major focus on pollution, especially water, with less concern for surface disruptions like impacts to farm management.

Social, economic, and cultural concerns

Most frequently-identified concerns among survey respondents about potential social, economic, and cultural impacts of fracking. Major focus on pollution, especially water, less on surface disruptions like impacts to farm management, infrastructure, and communities.

Current perspectives on the fracking situation

⊕These graphs represent the degree to which survey respondents agreed with the statements listed on the left side of the graphs. The further the points are away from zero, the more strongly survey respondents felt. Negative values = disagreement, positive = agreement.

Economics and the environment

Focus group participants claimed that pro-fracking entities overstated the potential for job creation, especially in local communities, to inflate public support for shale gas development. Likewise, survey respondents were cynical about the potential for job creation.

Furthermore, survey respondents were also sceptical about the potential for fracking to improve the reliability and reduce negative environmental impacts of electricity generation in South Africa.

Government and politics

Despite a Constitution that describes many natural resources as basic human rights, and an omnibus environmental regulatory framework11 In 2014 the “One Environmental System” aggregated all environmental issues under the National Environmental Management Act 107 of 1998 (NEMA)⁴., survey respondents were pessimistic about how government will handle fracking.

Survey respondents indicated that fracking could be an issue during elections, but felt politcal parties did not give it enough attention22 Most respondents who identified their political party claimed affiliation with the DA..

Research priorities

What do South Africans believe needs additional research to ensure fracking is better understood?

Priorities for fracking-related research given by online survey respondents (number of unique responses), by three categories.

⊕The Bakken is among the most rural shale plays in North America. It is primarily agricultural (crops and rangeland), similar to the grasslands of eastern South Africa. There is a mix of Native American reservation land, small towns, and federal conservation land, including a National Park. Just four counties in North Dakota produce the second-highest amount of onshore US crude oil, behind the state of Texas.