Introduction
The 2016 publication of Matthew Desmond’s Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City highlighted the prevalence and ubiquity of eviction, even in cities that are seen as having affordable housing stock, such as Milwaukee, or Cleveland.For the purposes of this research we are interested in determining both the number of eviction filings, so the number of notices to vacate issues to tenants, by landlords, and the number of total evictions, in this case defined as a first cause ruling by the court, judgement for the plaintiff. This analysis will in turn be used to help determine Cleveland’s Right to Counsel Pilot Geographic Focus.

Methodology
Using eviction lab data from 2000-2016 and eviction data scraped from the Cleveland Municipal Housing Court for 2017 we set out to identify eviction patterns and trends in Cleveland. This means, where are evictions happening? Who lives in these neighborhoods? How has this changed over time?


Housing in Cleveland
Although the housing market in Cleveland is considerably more affordable than in most U.S. cities, the cost of housing continues to be a large expenditure in household budgets. The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Cleveland in 2018 is $794. This places Cleveland solidly in the cheapest 10 percent of cities. Despite low average rent, just over half (51 percent) of all renters in Cleveland meet the rental cost to income ratio threshold considered excessive burden, paying 30 percent or more of their income towards rental housing. And nearly a third faces an even greater burden, paying 50 percent or more of their income towards rental housing. Exacerbating this affordability issue is a lack of quality housing that meets local health and safety codes. A 2015 survey of all property in the City of Cleveland found an overall 8 percent vacancy rate, and that 37 percent of all vacant structures were found to be unsuitable for habitation, based on a sidewalk-level visual exterior assessment alone. In a city of older housing stock, elevated blood lead levels are often related to poorly maintained and deteriorating properties. City-wide, 15 percent of children tested for lead in a given year are found to have levels greater than .5 mcg/dL. Cumulatively, an even greater proportion of children in Cleveland test positive for lead at some point between birth and age five. A recent study, for example, found that 39 percent of children that entered kindergarten in Cleveland Schools had at least one lead test above the public health threshold. Additionally, Cuyahoga County was one of the counties most impacted by 2008’s foreclosure crisis, and is home to the single top zip code. Ultimately this paints the picture of a city that faces daunting housing challenges.

Eviction in Cleveland
Legal Context
In Ohio, the eviction process starts when a landlord serves a tenant with a three-day notice to vacate. Legitimate causes for eviction include: In Cleveland, eviction hearings are overheard by magistrates in housing court. The onus is on the tenant to show that the landlord did not abide by the lease, did not serve the eviction notice properly, or that they have since come into compliance with the lease. Defenses include:

However, not all defendants may know that these are all grounds to invalidate an eviction. In Ohio, a judgement in favor of the plaintiff means the tenant is given 7-10 days to move out. In extreme circumstances, this time may be shortened to 3 days or increased to 14 days. If tenant fails to leave, the landlord must first pay for a writ of execution, then if the tenant still does not leave the landlord can execute the writ, where the Bailiff will physically move out the tenant within ten days of receiving the writ. If there is a judgement in favor of the tenant, tenant may stay. For the purposes of this research, we are most interested in the eviction filings, so the number of notices to vacate sent to tenants, and rates at which they were sent. Filings are more reflective of the true numbers of forced move outs because many households move out before an actual writ to force the move out is issued, and Eviction Lab’s eviction statistics only reflect the homes where writs were fully executed.

Right to Counsel
In 2017, New York became the first city in the country to provide right to counsel in eviction cases. Under their system anyone who’s income is 200 percent of the poverty level or less is eligible to receive legal representation. New York saved an estimated $251 million by providing right to counsel, according to SRR, and anticipated savings of $320 million per year. In June 2018, San Francisco voters approved a ballot measure providing right to counsel to all tenants facing eviction in the city.

In the United States, a person facing criminal charges is guaranteed the right to representation. The same right is not guaranteed to a person facing civil charges. In Cleveland, eviction is a civil process, and therefore, representation is not a guaranteed right. Additionally, the overwhelming majority of landlords are represented by counsel, while only 1-2 percent of tenants are represented by counsel. Even though tenants have rights, the reality is that without the representation by an attorney, tenants often do not know their rights or how to represent themselves - and may result in tenants and their families being unfairly forced to move from their homes.

As Cleveland seeks to ensure housing stability and to ease the downstream costs of eviction, where are the geographic and demographic areas of focus?

Timeline
In Cuyahoga County, total evictions filed peaked in 2008, whereas eviction filing rates peaked in 2007, after steady year over year increases. Both filings and filing rates reflect larger patterns seen on a national scale just before and during the foreclosure crisis when housing prices and rents reached their peak in February 2007.

<i>Average Eviction and Eviction Filing Rates in Cuyahoga County</i>

Average Eviction and Eviction Filing Rates in Cuyahoga County

<i>Average Eviction and Eviction Filing Rates in Cuyahoga County</i>

Average Eviction and Eviction Filing Rates in Cuyahoga County

Poverty
When we overlay evictions with demographic patterns in Cleveland it becomes apparent that there is a clear relationship between poverty, communities of color, and increased eviction filings and eviction filing rates. All of the top ten tracts with the highest eviction filings (cumulatively from 2000-2016) are majority black communities. Additionally, six of ten tracts have poverty rates that exceed ten percent.

<i>Cumulative Top Ten Tracts for Eviction Filings in Cleveland (2016-2018)</i>

Cumulative Top Ten Tracts for Eviction Filings in Cleveland (2016-2018)

In order to determine the relationship between race and evictions, we first coded census tracts by their majority race (White/Black/Asian/Latinx). Race and ethnicity were analyzed as one and we only included races that had populations significant enough to have any majority tracts throughout the city. What we found was that there was a relationship particularly between black communities and increased eviction filing rates. Latinx and Asian communities saw less of a correlation, which is less surprising because relatively speaking Cleveland is mostly a white or black city.

<i>Eviction Filing Rates by Race</i>

Eviction Filing Rates by Race

<i>Eviction Filings by Percentage Black</i>

Eviction Filings by Percentage Black

Volatility
The top ten most volatile tracts were determined by greatest variance, or the greatest expected squared deviation from the mean. Of these ten tracts, the average percentage of the population was black was 79 percent, as compared to the average of 35 percent black across all tracts.

Similarly, when we look at the poverty rates for the most volatile tracts we saw that the average rate is 39 percent, whereas it’s only 13 percent for all other tracts. Lastly, an average 84 percent of residents were renters in volatile tracts, whereas in all tracts that number was less than half at 40 percent.

When we look at volatility, and trends, it becomes apparent that majority-minority communities are disproportionally impacted by eviction, in particular, black communities are vulnerable to higher eviction filing rates. They are also more susceptible to higher highs and lower lows. Whereas white communities see eviction rates that vary according to national patterns, communities of color see their own localized patterns.
<i>Top Ten Most Volatile Tracts by Eviction Filing in Cleveland</i>

Top Ten Most Volatile Tracts by Eviction Filing in Cleveland

Conclusions and Next Steps
In order for this analysis to reliably inform right to counsel we would need to:

With this information we could create a logit model that would accurately and generalizably predict evictions in Cleveland. Using this information we would then determine the correct geographical focus, whether that be census tract, neighborhood, or zip code, this would need to be an easily identifiable area for the purposes of policy measures. Below we have the preliminary maps that show us how geographic density differs just between different geographic scales.

On the whole, The patterns evident in Cleveland are patterns seen around the country. Eviction impacts households and neighborhoods that are disproportionately below the poverty rate, and communities of color. Given these trends, providing right to counsel in Cleveland also bears the possibility to reduce downstream costs that households face when they are evicted. Legal representation of tenants in housing cases levels the playing field by enabling Cleveland residents in understanding the court process, having defenses identified, knowing their rights and options and allowing them to participate meaningfully in the legal proceeding. The resolution of tenants’ legal cases is life-changing: legal representation can tip the scales between shelter and homelessness, safety and danger, and economic security and poverty.

<i>2014 Filings by Tract</i>

2014 Filings by Tract

<i>2014 Filings by Zip</i>

2014 Filings by Zip

<i>2015 Filings by Tract</i>

2015 Filings by Tract

<i>2015 Filings by Zip</i>

2015 Filings by Zip

<i>2016 Filings by Tract</i>

2016 Filings by Tract

<i>2016 Filings by Zip</i>

2016 Filings by Zip

<i>2017 Filings by 500 Foot Grid Quantile Density</i>

2017 Filings by 500 Foot Grid Quantile Density



Sources: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012-2016
Eviction Lab Data, Cuyahoga County and Ohio