15/01, 2019

The problem

How do we plan conservation for the future

  • Protected areas

Are protected areas protecting species

  • GAP Species

Are protected areas protecting species

Climatic preferences of a species

climate is changing

Species follow

Where do they go to

How will the climate change

GCMs

Where do we protect our species?

Lets think of this like an apocalyptic movie

  • I have to arrive to point X where my bunker is before a meteorite falls to earth
    • Do we protect both cities?

¿Which route I take?

Species 1

  • I fly

Species 2

  • I walk

I have to take into account route and speed

We have to go to the bunker

  • Scenario 2.5 slow metoerite, I have 24 hours to get to the bunker
  • Scenario 8.5 fast meteorite I have 17.5 hours to get to the bunker

Species 1

  • I fly

Species 2

  • I walk

Species 3

  • I drive (Walk pretty fast)
    • which roads I should preserve depend on scenario

How do I do it

Network flow

Network flow

Network flow

Network flow

Network flow

Importance of choices

Cape example

  • 121 species of plants in the cape
  • Least cost to add areas to the network of protected areas of the cape
  • 8 time slices 2000-2070, decadal slices
  • Potential dispersal 2 kms per decade
  • Goal 200 Chains per species (or maximum if 200 cannot be achieved)

Cost

  • Naidoo, Robin, and Takuya Iwamura. 2007. crop productivity
  • livestock density
  • prices
  • Modify it to take into account developed areas and Protected areas

Protected areas

  • Protected Areas layer class I and II from World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA)
  • A multiplier 0 if it is protected, and 1 if it is not

Land Use

Land Use

Modified cost

Solutions (linear)

Solutions (Quadratic)

Comparizon with other priorization tools

Advantages/Challenges

  • Quadratic gives more options than linear for network flow
  • Lower values give us alternative routes for species
  • It keeps track of migration routes like migclim, and optimizes like prioritizr, best of both worlds
  • Unique in being able to add species later on
  • Sound good!!! but it does not improve anything if we dont have good dispersal models for sepecies