Previsão de visualizações - UFERSA

Kássio Camelo Ferreira da Silva

14 de janeiro de 2019

Visualização da Wikipédia

today = paste(gsub("[[:punct:]]", "", as.character(Sys.Date())),"00", sep="")

wiki_ufersa = article_pageviews(project = "pt.wikipedia",
                                article = "Universidade_Federal_Rural_do_Semi-Árido", 
                                end = today)

df = data.frame(ds = wiki_ufersa$date, y = wiki_ufersa$views)
tail(df, 3)
##              ds  y
## 1202 2019-01-14 40
## 1203 2019-01-15 42
## 1204 2019-01-16 42

Prophet

Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well.

Prophet

# Prophet (Facebook tool for time series)
m <- prophet(df)
future <- make_future_dataframe(m, periods = 365)
forecast <- predict(m, future)
forecast_summary <- forecast[c('ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper')]
prophet_plot_components(m, forecast)

Prophet

trace1 <- list(
      x = df$ds,  
      y = df$y, 
      mode = "markers", 
      name = "Observado", 
      type = "scatter"
    )
    
    trace2 <- list(
      x = forecast_summary$ds,  
      y = forecast_summary$yhat, 
      line = list(color = 'red'), 
      mode = "lines", 
      name = "Estimado", 
      type = "scatter"
    )
    
    trace3 <- list(
      x = forecast_summary$ds, 
      y = forecast_summary$yhat_lower, 
      fill = "tonexty", 
      fillcolor = '#ab63fa',
      line = list(color = "blue"), 
      mode = "lines", 
      name = "Limite inferior", 
      type = "scatter"
    )

Prophet

    trace4 <- list(
      x = forecast_summary$ds, 
      y = forecast_summary$yhat_upper, 
      fill = "tonexty", 
      fillcolor = '#ab63fa',
      line = list(color = "blue"), 
      mode = "lines", 
      name = "Limite superior", 
      type = "scatter"
    )
     
    data <- list(trace1, trace2)
    layout <- list(
     paper_bgcolor = "rgb(255, 255, 255)", 
     plot_bgcolor = "rgb(243, 243, 243)",  
     xaxis = list(
       gridcolor = "rgb(255, 255, 255)", 
       gridwidth = 2, 
       ticklen = 5, 
       title = "Meses", 
       zerolinewidth = 1
     )) 
     yaxis = list(
       gridcolor = "rgb(255, 255, 255)", 
       gridwidth = 2, 
       ticklen = 5, 
       title = "Visualizações", 
       zerolinewidth = 1
     )

Prophet

p <- plot_ly()
    p <- add_trace(p, x=trace1$x, y=trace1$y, mode=trace1$mode, 
                   name=trace1$name, type=trace1$type)
    p <- add_trace(p, x=trace2$x, y=trace2$y, fill=trace2$fill, 
                   line=trace2$line,mode=trace2$mode, name=trace2$name, 
                   type=trace2$type)
    p <- add_trace(p, x=trace3$x, y=trace3$y, fill=trace3$fill, 
                   line=trace3$line, mode=trace3$mode, name=trace3$name, 
                   type=trace3$type, visible = "legendonly",
                   fillcolor = 'rgba(168, 216, 234, 0.5)')
    p <- add_trace(p, x=trace4$x, y=trace4$y, fill=trace4$fill, 
                   line=trace4$line, mode=trace4$mode, name=trace4$name, 
                   type=trace4$type, visible = "legendonly",
                   fillcolor = 'rgba(168, 216, 234, 0.5)')
    p <- layout(p, paper_bgcolor=layout$paper_bgcolor, 
                plot_bgcolor=layout$plot_bgcolor, hovermode="compare",
                title=layout$title, xaxis=layout$xaxis, 
                yaxis=layout$yaxis, height=400, width=900, 
                align="center")

Plotly - Exemplo Wikipedia

Exemplo - Google Trends

Shiny

Twitter - Ufersa

## [1] "Using direct authentication"
## character(0)
## 
##        cassiaRN       igornascz   JuniorOlivaci    LudimillaOli 
##               2               1               1               1 
## MarcosBMedeiros    ninicabulous      tcmmossoro   Thiago_Idalgo 
##               1               1               1               1 
##     umlinguista 
##               1
## 
##      ARI_UFERSA         ccostah cecropianervosa      porravitor 
##               1               2               1               1 
##          ufersa         YouTube 
##               4               1

Grafo - UFERSA

Twitter - Ufersa

## character(0)
## 
## jorjauffiana    duardapss  narcisoyago      LuS1lva    AscomUFPE 
##          305           55           39           22            3

Grafo

Uma história - UFPE