Javern Wilson R Bridge HW WK2 Assignment

Problem 1. Dice Rolls

If you roll a pair of fair dice, what is the probability of…

getting a sum of 1?

## [1] "p(1) = 0. Cannot be a total of less than 1"

getting a sum of 5?

## [1] "p(5) = [1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1] => 4/36 =  0.1111"

getting a sum of 12?

## [1] "p(12) = [6+6] => 1/36 =  0.0278"

Problem 2. School absences

Data collected at elementary schools in DeKalb County, GA suggest that each year roughly 25% of students miss exactly one day of school, 15% miss 2 days, and 28% miss 3 or more days due to sickness.

What is the probability that a student chosen at random doesn’t miss any days of school due to sickness this year?

## [1] "P(miss) = 0.15 + 0.28 + 0.25 "

## [1] 0.68

## [1] "Therefore the probability that they don't miss: P(don't miss) = 1 - 0.68"

## [1] 0.32

What is the probability that a student chosen at random misses no more than one day?

## [1] "P(don't miss) + P( 1 day) = 0.32 + 0.25"

## [1] 0.57

What is the probability that a student chosen at random misses at least one day?

## [1] "P(1 day or more) = 0.25 + 0.15+ 0.28"

## [1] 0.68

If a parent has two kids at a DeKalb County elementary school, what is the probability that neither kid will miss any school? Note any assumption you must make to answer this question.

## [1] "P(kid 1 don't miss) n P(kid 2 don't miss) = 0.32 * 0.32"

## [1] 0.1024

If a parent has two kids at a DeKalb County elementary school, what is the probability that both kids will miss some school, i.e. at least one day? Note any assumption you make.

## [1] "P(kid 1 miss) n P(kid 2 miss) = 0.68 * 0.68"

## [1] 0.4624

If you made an assumption in part (d) or (e), do you think it was reasonable? If you didn’t make any assumptions, double check your earlier answers.

Since it says “a parent with two kids”, this means that the kids could be siblings living together. The chance of one getting sick will likely affect the other hence they are dependant.

Problem 3. Health coverage, relative frequencies

The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is an annual telephone survey designed to identify risk factors in the adult population and report emerging health trends. The following table displays the distribution of health status of respondents to this survey (excellent, very good, good, fair, poor) and whether or not they have health insurance.

Are being in excellent health and having health coverage mutually exclusive?

No. They can happen at the same time as shown in the table.

What is the probability that a randomly chosen individual has excellent health?

## [1] "P(EH) = (0.230 + 0.2099)/ 1.1729"

## [1] 0.1986

(c)What is the probability that a randomly chosen individual has excellent health given that he has health coverage?

## [1] "P(C|H) = P(HnC) / P(H)3\n\t             = 0.2099 / 0.2329"

## [1] 0.9012

What is the probability that a randomly chosen individual has excellent health given that he doesn’t have health coverage?

## [1] "P(NC|H) = 1 - 0.1986"

## [1] 0.0988

Do having excellent health and having health coverage appear to be independent?

No, they are dependant on each other. Knowing whether or not someone has coverage does not tell us anything about their health.

Problem 4. Exit Poll.

Edison Research gathered exit poll results from several sources for the Wisconsin recall election of Scott Walker. They found that 53% of the respondents voted in favor of Scott Walker. Additionally, they estimated that of those who did vote in favor for Scott Walker, 37% had a college degree, while 44% of those who voted against Scott Walker had a college degree. Suppose we randomly sampled a person who participated in the exit poll and found that he had a college degree. What is the probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker?

## [1] "P(Vote for Scott) n P(has a degree) = 0.53 * .37"

## [1] 0.1961

## [1] "P(did not vote for Scott) n P(has a degree) = 0.47 * 0.44"

## [1] 0.2068

## [1] "0.1961 + 0.2068"

## [1] 0.4029

Problem 5. Books on a bookshelf

The table below shows the distribution of books on a bookcase based on whether they are nonfiction or fiction and hardcover or paperback.

Find the probability of drawing a hardcover book first then a paperback fiction book second when drawing without replacement.

## [1] "P(H) = 28 / 95"

## [1] 0.2947

## [1] "P(PF) = 59 / 94"

## [1] 0.6277

## [1] "0.2947 + 0.6277"

## [1] 0.185

Determine the probability of drawing a fiction book first and then a hardcover book second, when drawing without replacement.

## [1] "P(F) = 72 / 95"

## [1] 0.7579

## [1] "P(H) = 28 / 94"

## [1] 0.2979

## [1] "0.7579 * 0.2979"

## [1] 0.2258

Calculate the probability of the scenario in part (b), except this time complete the calculations under the scenario where the first book is placed back on the bookcase before randomly drawing the second book.

## [1] "P(F) = 72 / 95"

## [1] 0.7579

## [1] "P(H) = 28 / 95"

## [1] 0.2947

## [1] "0.7579 * 0.2947"

## [1] 0.2234

The final answers to parts (b) and (c) are very similar. Explain why this is the case. The bigger the sample size, the smaller the difference it makes.

Problem 6. Is it worth it?

Andy is always looking for ways to make money fast. Lately, he has been trying to make money by gambling. Here is the game he is considering playing: The game costs 2 dollars to play. He draws a card from a deck. If he gets a number card (2-10), he wins nothing. For any face card (jack, queen or king), he wins 3 dollars. For any ace, he wins 5 dollars and he wins an extra $20 if he draws the ace of clubs.

Create a probability model and find Andy’s expected profit per game.

## 
##  P( 2 - 10) = 36 / 52 = 9 / 13 => $0 (No profit)
##  P(J, Q, K) = 12 / 52 = 3 / 13 => $3 ($1 profit)
##  P(Ace) = 4 / 52 = 1 / 13 => $5 ($2 Profit)
##  P(Ace of Clubs) = 4 / 52 * 13 / 52 = 1 / 52 => $20 ($18 Profit)

## [1] "P = (-2)(9/13) + 1(3/13) + 3(1/13) + 18(1/52)"

## [1] "-1.3846 + 0.2308 + 0.2308 + 0.3462"

## [1] -0.5768

Would you recommend this game to Andy as a good way to make money? Explain.

No. The higher the stake, the lower his chance is of making a bigger profit and he loses 58c each game he plays.

Problem 7. Scooping ice cream.

Ice cream usually comes in 1.5 quart boxes (48 fluid ounces), and ice cream scoops hold about 2 ounces. However, there is some variability in the amount of ice cream in a box as well as the amount of ice cream scooped out. We represent the amount of ice cream in the box as X and the amount scooped out as Y . Suppose these random variables have the following means, standard deviations, and variances

An entire box of ice cream, plus 3 scoops from a second box is served at a party. How much ice cream do you expect to have been served at this party?

## [1] "1 Box + 3 scoops = 48 + 6 "

## 54 ounces

What is the standard deviation of the amount of ice cream served?

## [1] "sqrt(1 + .0625 +.0625 +.0625)"

## [1] 1.0897

How much ice cream would you expect to be left in the box after scooping out one scoop of ice cream? That is, find the expected value of X - Y. What is the standard deviation of the amount left in the box?

## [1] "1 Box - 1 scoop = 48 - 2"

## 46 ounces

## [1] "Standard Deviation of the amount left in the box"

## [1] "sqrt(1 + .0625)"

## [1] 1.0308

Using the context of this exercise, explain why we add variances when we subtract one random variable from another.

Since each scoop is randomly sampled, whether we add or subtract from the pile, the variance increases. This is because the variability of the weight in the box has increased even though we subtracted the scoops of ice cream. We’re less certain about the remaining weight (variance) than we were about the weight before we took the first scoop.