12/1/2018

Introduction

The Necessary Data

Public Health Data Challenge

According to the American Statistical Association, drug overdose deaths are now the leading cause of injury and death in the United States. As of 2016, 2.1 million Americans have an opioid use disorder. Our job was to analyze external datasets given to us and come up with a solution based on our results.

Data 2000

The national death percentage average was .0068069 in 2000.

Data 2016

The national death percentage average was .0214843 in 2016

My Individual Goals

  • Is the rate of overdose deaths associated more with extended-release opioids rather than regular opioids

  • To explore the prescription rates of each of these and see if there is a relationship with the death percentages

Analysis

Opioid Prescription Rates against Deaths per State Population

Looks like the change in opioid prescription rate has an inverse relationship with overdose related deaths
Year op_change avg_deathperpop
2013 305.57 0.0159155
2014 302.23 0.0170287
2015 291.28 0.0188432
2016 280.78 0.0219253

Extended Opioid Prescription Rates against Deaths per State Population

The change in extended-release opioid has a direct relationship with opioid misuse deaths!
Year op_change avg_deathperpop
2013 305.57 0.0159155
2014 302.23 0.0170287
2015 291.28 0.0188432
2016 280.78 0.0219253

Conclusion

  • A lag effect may be in place here for the normal opioid prescription rates.
  • In our case, it is safe to conclude that extended-release opioid prescription rates have more of an impact on opioid related deaths than regular opioids.
  • This may be due to the higher amount of opioid medication in extended release opioids compared to normal opioids. It doesn't have as much of a spike at first, but it is in the bloodstream longer, therefore it may cause more injuries or even overdoses.

Further Question

  • If the change in regular opioid prescription rate was increased and the change in extended-release prescription rate was decreased over a four year period, would the death per population ratio decrease?

  • I believe that this should be looked at by hospitals and other data scientists to see if the prescription rate of extended-release opioids should be lowered.

References

  1. Mui, Katie. “Extended Release Drugs: Are They Right For You?” GoodRx, 9 Nov. 2018, www.goodrx.com/blog/extended-release-drugs-are-they-right-for-you/.

  2. “What Does Time-Release Mean in Terms of Drug Consumption?” Desert Hope, 2018, deserthopetreatment.com/drug-abuse/what-is-time-release/.