DATA 606 Final Data Project
Peter Kowalchuk
Administration’s party and the prices of oil and gasoline
Part 1 - Introduction
The oil market is tracked by two major indices: WTI and Brent. WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is the price of US produced oil (mainly from the West Texas Permian region) stored in Cushing, Oklahoma and traded in the New York Stock Exchange. WTI is the benchmark domestic oil price. Brent is the price of oil produced in the North Sea stored in the UK and traded in the London Stock Exchange. Brent is the benchmark imported oil price.
Gasoline in the US is mainly refined in the Gulf of Mexico region (Texas and Louisiana), and in the Mid-West and North East regions (Illinois, Ohio, Pensilvania and New York). Price is followed by two mayor indices reflecting each gasoline price in these two regions: Conventional Gasoline Prices US Gulf Coast Regular and Conventional Gasoline Prices New York Harbor Regular. WTI oil is mainly refined in the mid-west/north east region, while imported Brent oil is in its majority refined in the Gulf Cost Region. The price of gasoline is in large measure determined by the price of oil used to produce it.
In this analysis we want to look at the differences, if any, between different US administrations and the price of oil. The premise is that certain administrations might have been inclined to support international markets at the expense of the US market. Policies to help the Middle East region for example, from where most of the international oil comes from, would help tame Brent prices at the expense of WTI prices.
Analysis Questions
1) Have different administrations supported US (WTI) or international (Brent) oil differently?
2) Is US domestic (WTI) or imported (Brent) oil a better indicator of gasoline prices?
Answering these question will give us a sense of how we are affected by the position of the US in international relations.
Part 2 - Data
Data Collection
Data is collected by the US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Oil data is collected by taking the closing price of WTI oil at the New York Stock Exchange, and the closing price for oil at the London Stock Exchange. Gasoline data is collected as the closing price for Conventional Gasoline Prices US Gulf Coast Regular and the New York Harbor Regular both traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Oil and Gasoline data collected from the US Federal Reserve
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
US party/president data table created manually using data from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States
Data Preparation
library(FredR)## Warning: replacing previous import 'data.table::first' by 'dplyr::first'
## when loading 'FredR'## Warning: replacing previous import 'data.table::between' by
## 'dplyr::between' when loading 'FredR'## Warning: replacing previous import 'data.table::last' by 'dplyr::last' when
## loading 'FredR'library(pipeR)
library(dplyr)
library(psych)
library(ggplot2)
library(kableExtra)Data for this project was sourced from the US Federal Reserver Economic Data (FRED) site.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
The provided API was used to extract the required data.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/
In the R enviroment, a recomended third party software(library) was used. La library is staged in a GitHub repository. It was loaded on to the IDE using Hadley’s devtools: devtools::install_github(“jcizel/FredR”)
https://github.com/jcizel/FredR
api.key = "4844eb6986119824760163e60bddd945"
fred<-FredR(api.key)
#We seach for the data series we need for oil and gasoline
oil.series<-fred$series.search("OIL")
oil.series %>% kable() %>% kable_styling() %>% scroll_box(width = "910px", height = "400px")| id | realtime_start | realtime_end | title | observation_start | observation_end | frequency | frequency_short | units | units_short | seasonal_adjustment | seasonal_adjustment_short | last_updated | popularity | group_popularity | notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPIAUCSL | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items | 1947-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-1984=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-14 07:51:02-06 | 96 | 97 | The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) is a measure of the average monthly change in the price for goods and services paid by urban consumers between any two time periods.(1) It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. This particular index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population, accounting for wage earners, clerical workers, technical workers, self-employed, short-term workers, unemployed, retirees, and those not in the labor force.(1) The CPIs are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas.(1) To calculate the index, price changes are averaged with weights representing their importance in the spending of the particular group. The index measures price changes (as a percent change) from a predetermined reference date.(1) In addition to the original unadjusted index distributed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a seasonally adjusted index. The unadjusted series reflects all factors that may influence a change in prices. However, it can be very useful to look at the seasonally adjusted CPI, which removes the effects of seasonal changes, such as weather, school year, production cycles, and holidays.(1) The CPI can be used to recognize periods of inflation and deflation. Significant increases in the CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of inflation, and significant decreases in CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of deflation. However, because the CPI includes volatile food and oil prices, it might not be a reliable measure of inflationary and deflationary periods. For a more accurate detection, the core CPI (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food & Energy [CPILFESL]) is often used. When using the CPI, please note that it is not applicable to all consumers and should not be used to determine relative living costs.(1) Additionally, the CPI is a statistical measure vulnerable to sampling error since it is based on a sample of prices and not the complete average.(1) For more information on the consumer price indexes, see: (1) Bureau of Economic Analysis. “CPI Detailed Report.” 2013; http://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Handbook of Methods - (http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch17.pdf) Understanding the CPI: Frequently Asked Questions - (http://stats.bls.gov:80/cpi/cpifaq.htm) |
| DCOILWTICO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma | 1986-01-02 | 2018-11-26 | Daily | D | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:02-06 | 83 | 85 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| DCOILBRENTEU | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe | 1987-05-20 | 2018-11-26 | Daily | D | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:02-06 | 75 | 77 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| WTISPLC | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) | 1946-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 14:11:01-06 | 68 | 67 | This series was created by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to expand the history of the monthly West Texas Intermediate oil price series in FRED. We simply combined these two FRED series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OILPRICE and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCOILWTICO. From January 1946 through July 2013, the series used is OILPRICE. From August 2013 to present, the series used is MCOILWTICO. |
| MCOILWTICO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma | 1986-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 14:01:02-06 | 67 | 85 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| POILBREUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Brent Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:02-05 | 60 | 64 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| MCOILBRENTEU | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe | 1987-05-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 14:01:02-06 | 57 | 77 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| POILWTIUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of WTI Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:02-05 | 53 | 57 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| WCOILWTICO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma | 1986-01-03 | 2018-11-23 | Weekly, Ending Friday | W | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:02-06 | 52 | 85 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| IPG211111CN | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Crude oil | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-16 08:31:02-06 | 51 | 55 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211111pt. Source Code: IP.G211111C.N |
| IRNNXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 51 | 50 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PSUNOUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Sunflower Oil | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton | U.S. $ per Metric Ton | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:03-05 | 50 | 50 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| OVXCLS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index | 2007-05-10 | 2018-11-29 | Daily, Close | D | Index | Index | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-30 08:41:04-06 | 47 | 47 | Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are shares of trusts that hold portfolios of stocks designed to closely track the price performance and yield of specific indices. Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission. |
| ACOILWTICO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma | 1986-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-05-31 14:01:02-05 | 45 | 85 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| OILPRICE | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (DISCONTINUED) | 1946-01-01 | 2013-07-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2013-08-14 09:46:47-05 | 45 | 45 | Prior to 1982 equals the posted price. On August 5, 2013, the Wall Street Journal discontinued publication of some of its commodity energy prices. As a current substitute, see the monthly oil spot prices reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCOILWTICO Copyright, 2016, Dow Jones & Company |
| PCU21311121311101 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells: Drilling Oil, Gas, Dry, or Service Wells (DISCONTINUED) | 1985-12-01 | 2017-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-01-11 09:01:04-06 | 43 | 42 | NA |
| SAUNGDPMOMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Production for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 41 | 41 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| POILBREUSDQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Brent Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2017-04-01 | Quarterly | Q | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:05-05 | 40 | 64 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PCU33121033121001 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Iron, Steel Pipe and Tube from Purchased Steel: Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG), Standard, Line Pipe, Carbon (DISCONTINUED) | 2010-12-01 | 2017-02-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2010=100 | Index Dec 2010=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-13 09:11:06-05 | 40 | 40 | NA |
| POILDUBUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Dubai Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:03-05 | 40 | 45 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| CUUR0000SEHE | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fuel oil and other fuels | 1935-03-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-14 07:54:49-06 | 38 | 43 | NA |
| PCU324191324191S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Petroleum Lubricating Oil and Grease Manufacturing: Secondary Products | 1980-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1980=100 | Index Dec 1980=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:05-06 | 38 | 38 | NA |
| SAUDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 37 | 37 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PPOILUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Palm Oil | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton | U.S. $ per Metric Ton | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:06-05 | 37 | 39 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| POLVOILUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Olive Oil | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton | U.S. $ per Metric Ton | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:07-05 | 37 | 38 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| SAUNGDPXORPCHPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Non-Oil Real GDP Growth in Constant Prices for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent Change | % Chg. | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:01-05 | 36 | 36 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| POILWTIUSDQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of WTI Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2017-04-01 | Quarterly | Q | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:03-05 | 36 | 57 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| CES1021100001 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | All Employees: Mining and Logging: Oil and Gas Extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Thousands of Persons | Thous. of Persons | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-02 08:18:02-05 | 35 | 36 | The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’ The source code is: CES1021100001 |
| IPN213111N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Drilling oil and gas wells | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-16 08:31:03-06 | 34 | 37 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 213111 Source Code: IP.N213111.N |
| SAUNXGO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total Oil Exports Including Crude for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 33 | 33 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| ACOILBRENTEU | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe | 1987-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-05-31 14:01:02-05 | 33 | 77 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| PCU333132333132 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing | 1965-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1980=100 | Index Dec 1980=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:11-06 | 32 | 32 | NA |
| POILBREUSDA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Brent Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-02-01 09:11:06-06 | 32 | 64 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IPG211111CS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Crude oil | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:04-06 | 31 | 55 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211111pt. Source Code: IP.G211111C.S |
| QATDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Qatar | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 29 | 29 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| SAUGGRXOGDPXOPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Non-oil Revenue for General Government for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of Non-oil GDP | % of Non-oil GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:01-05 | 29 | 29 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| SAUPZPIOILBEGUSD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Breakeven Fiscal Oil Price for Saudi Arabia | 2008-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | US Dollars Per Barrel | US $ Per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 28 | 28 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| CAPUTLG211SQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Capacity Utilization: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Percent of Capacity | % of Capacity | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:05-06 | 28 | 32 | For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. NAICS = 211 Source Code: CAPUTL.G211.S |
| ANDENO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Value of Manufacturers’ New Orders for Capital Goods: Nondefense Capital Goods Industries | 1992-02-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Million of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-21 15:32:19-06 | 28 | 29 | This series is a topical regrouping of the separate industry categories. Nondefense capital goods industries include: small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machiner |
| PROILUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Rapeseed Oil | 1980-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton | U.S. $ per Metric Ton | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:11-05 | 28 | 28 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| WPU1191 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Commodity for Machinery and Equipment: Oil Field and Gas Field Machinery | 1947-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982=100 | Index 1982=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:08-06 | 27 | 27 | NA |
| SAUNXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 27 | 27 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| WCOILBRENTEU | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe | 1987-05-15 | 2018-11-23 | Weekly, Ending Friday | W | Dollars per Barrel | $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:03-06 | 26 | 77 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| PCU21112111 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Extraction | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:07-06 | 25 | 27 | NA |
| IPG211S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:05-06 | 24 | 26 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211 Source Code: IP.G211.S |
| POILWTIUSDA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of WTI Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-02-01 09:11:06-06 | 24 | 57 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IRNFAFARUSD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross International Reserves Held by Central Bank for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars | U.S. $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 23 | 23 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| WHOILNYH | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | No. 2 Heating Oil Prices: New York Harbor | 1986-06-06 | 2018-11-23 | Weekly, Ending Friday | W | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:03-06 | 23 | 28 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| ARENGDPMOMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Production for United Arab Emirates | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 22 | 22 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| LNU04032230 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Unemployment Rate: Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, Nonagricultural Private Wage and Salary Workers | 2000-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Percent | % | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-02 08:18:06-05 | 22 | 22 | The series comes from the ‘Current Population Survey (Household Survey)’ The source code is: LNU04032230 |
| IRNNGDPMOMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Production for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:04-05 | 21 | 21 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| POILAPSPINDEXQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of APSP crude oil index | 1980-01-01 | 2017-04-01 | Quarterly | Q | Index 2005 = 100 | Index 2005 = 100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:06-05 | 21 | 24 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| M041BAUSM268NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Wholesale Price of Cottonseed Oil, Crude for United States | 1909-08-01 | 1941-06-01 | Monthly | M | Cents per Pound (In Tanks) | Cents Per Pound (In Tanks) | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-16 14:51:54-05 | 21 | 21 | No Quotation For August, 1910. Figure For July, 1916, Interpolated By War Industries Board. Data For 1916-1918 Checked With The U.S. War Industries Board, Price Bulletin No. 15, P. 11, Which Is The Original Source For These Years Average Price Per Pound, F.O.B. Southeastern Mills. Page 58 Of Statistical Bulletin No. 24, Usda Also Has A Price Series For Crude, S.E. But Gives An Average Of The High And Low Price Per Pound Each Month. Telephone Conversation With An Oils Specialist At Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter, On December 5, 1938, Revealed: A) Crude Cottonseed Oil Is And Always Has Been Sold In Tanks, The B.A.E. Note To The Contrary (Agricultural Statistics, 1938, P. 116) Notwithstanding. The B.A.E. Error Probably Arose Because Of The Manner In Which Prices Of Crude And Refined Oil Are Quoted Near Each Other. Refined Oil Was Sold In Tanks At Times And In Barrels At Other Times; B) The Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter Has Used Slightly Different Wording In Describing The Market At Different Times, But Actually No Change In Market Quoted Has Taken Place. F.O.B. Mills, Southeastern, And Immediate Southeastern, All Refer To Spot Sales At The Southeastern Mills. “January, 1929-July, 1930 Quoted In Barrels,” A Footnote In The Source Is Wrong According To Oil, Paint, And Drug Reports Office And By Inspection Of This Original Source. Interpolated Data Used For June-July, 1926, July, 1927, June- August, 1928, June-August, 1929, And July-August, 1931. Less Than 10 Quotations For Month Of December, 1931. Other Quotations Were Bids. Source: Yearbook Of Agriculture, 1930 (For Data 1909-1928) P. 695, Agricultural Statistics, 1938 (For 1929-1938) P. 116, Bureau Of Agricultural Economics: Prices 1916-1918 From War Industries Board Price Bulletin No. 15. Prices For 1919-1928 Are Averages Of Weekly Quotations In The “Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter.” From August, 1928 Through July, 1934, Prices Are Averages Of Daily Quotations In The “Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter” Except For The Period October, 1932-June, 1933, When The“Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter” Published No Prices For Crude Cottonseed Oil At South- Eastern Mills. For That Period,(10/1932-06/1933), The “New York Journal Commerce” Daily Prices Were Averaged And Used. For August, 1934 Through 1937, Prices Are Averages Of Quotations For Saturday During The Month– Quotations Given In The “Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter.” This NBER data series m04081ba appears on the NBER website in Chapter 4 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter04.html. NBER Indicator: m04081ba |
| LBYNGDPMOMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Production for Libya | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 21 | 21 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PCU3331323331323Z | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing: Other Oil and Gas Field Drilling Machinery and Equipment (DISCONTINUED) | 1986-12-01 | 2017-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1986=100 | Index Dec 1986=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-01-11 09:01:07-06 | 21 | 21 | NA |
| PCU213111213111 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:17-06 | 21 | 21 | NA |
| CUSR0000SEHE | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fuel oil and other fuels | 1947-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-14 07:54:52-06 | 21 | 43 | NA |
| SDNNGDPMOMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Production for Sudan | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 20 | 20 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IRNDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 20 | 20 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| EGYGGDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total Government Debt for General Government for Egypt | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 20 | 20 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| POILDUBUSDQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Dubai Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2017-04-01 | Quarterly | Q | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 09:01:04-05 | 19 | 45 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PAKDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Pakistan | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:05-05 | 18 | 18 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| EGYDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Egypt | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:04-05 | 18 | 18 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IPG211111CSQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Crude oil | 1972-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:09-06 | 18 | 55 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211111pt. Source Code: IP.G211111C.S |
| PCU486110486110312 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil: Pipeline Transportation of Crude Petroleum, Except on the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System | 1986-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1986=100 | Index Jun 1986=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:09-06 | 17 | 17 | NA |
| IRNNGDPXORPCHPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Non-Oil Real GDP Growth in Constant Prices for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent Change | % Chg. | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 17 | 17 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| NGANGDPXORPCPPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Real Non-Oil GDP for Nigeria | 2004-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent Change From Preceding Period | % Chg. From Preceding Period | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-10-11 15:51:16-05 | 17 | 17 | Annual data observations begin 8 years before the year of publication. Projected data include the year of publication and the subsequent 5 years. Data and projections presented are IMF staff forecast estimates as of September 18, 2015. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| M015ABUSM386NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Petroleum Consumption for United States | 1948-01-01 | 1955-11-01 | Monthly | M | Millions of Barrels | Mil. Of Barrels | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-15 15:50:25-05 | 17 | 17 | Series Is Presented Here As Two Variables–(1)–Original Data, 1917-1948 (2)–Original Data, 1948-1955. Data Are For Amount Of Crude Oil Run To Stills At Refineries, Including Foreign As Well As Domestic Petroleum. Beginning In 1949 A New Method Of Reporting Crude Oil In California Was Instituted, Shifting A Considerable Proportion Crude Oil Formerly Reported As Residual Fuel Oil To Oil Reported To Runs To Stills. Source: U.S. Bureau Of Mines; Mineral Industry Surveys, Monthly And Annual Petroleum Statement. This NBER data series m01125ab appears on the NBER website in Chapter 1 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter01.html. NBER Indicator: m01125ab |
| M05F3AUSM387NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Petroleum Stocks for United States | 1918-01-01 | 1941-07-01 | Monthly, End of Month | M | Millions of Barrels (Of 42 Gallons) | Mil. Of Barrels (Of 42 Gallons) | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-17 10:47:56-05 | 16 | 17 | Series Is Presented Here As Two Variables–(1)–Original Data, 1918-1941 (2)–Original Data, 1938-1956. Data For 1930-1933 Were Computed By NBER From Sources By Adding The Total U.S. Crude Figure To California Heavy And Crude Oil. Data Consist Of Stocks East Of California – At Refineries, Pipe Lines And Tank Forms, Producers’ Stocks, Foreign Held By Importers – And Stocks In California – Light Crude, Heavy Crude And Fuel Oil. Beginning In 1924, The California Portion Of The Data Was Put On A New Basis Of Reporting And Hereon Includes Fuel Oil Not Formerly Covered; California Data Now Specifically Represent “Heavy Crude And Fuel Oil, And Light Crude.” The Business Advisory And Planning Council For The Department Of Commerce, In “Notes On Existing Series Of Data,” (P. 28) States: “Because Of The Change In The Method Of Reporting The California Data, The Series Is Not Comparable Throughout, Especially Since The Inclusion In California Of Fuel Oil Adds A Finished Product. The Lack Of Comparability As Here Represented, However, Is Not Serious.” (See Mineral Resources, 1925, Pt. 2, P. 350.) Beginning In 1930, There Was A Curtailemnt Of Production. Source: U.S. Bureau Of Mines, Data For 1918-1929: Petroleum Refinery Statistics, Bulletin No. 339, Pp. 12-23 (For 1924 Overlap See Mineral Resources, 1925, Pt. 2, P. 350); Data For 1930: Bulletin No. 367, And Mineral Resources, 1930, Pt. 2, P. 834; Data For 1931: Minerals Yearbook, 1931, Pt. 2, Pp. 599 And 636; Data For 1932: Statistical Appendix To Minerals Yearbook, 1932-1933, Pp. 330 And 349; For 1933-1934: Minerals Yearbooks; For 1935-1938: Economic Paper No. 20; For 1939-1941: Monthly Petroleum Statements This NBER data series m05013a appears on the NBER website in Chapter 5 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter05.html. NBER Indicator: m05013a |
| IRNPZPIOILBEGUSD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Breakeven Fiscal Oil Price for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | US Dollars Per Barrel | US $ Per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 16 | 16 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| SAUBCAGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Current Account Balance for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:04-05 | 16 | 16 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| POILDUBUSDA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Dubai Crude | 1980-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars per Barrell | U.S. $ per Barrell | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-02-01 09:11:06-06 | 16 | 45 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| WPU10170671 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Commodity for Metals and Metal Products: Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG), Standard, Line Pipe, Carbon (DISCONTINUED) | 2010-12-01 | 2017-02-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2010=100 | Index Dec 2010=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-13 09:11:13-05 | 16 | 16 | NA |
| IRQNXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for Iraq | 2004-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:05-05 | 16 | 16 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| OMNDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Oman | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 16 | 16 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| WPU11910604 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Commodity for Machinery and Equipment: Parts and Attachments for Oil and Gas Field Production Machinery | 2010-12-01 | 2018-08-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2010=100 | Index Dec 2010=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-09-12 08:01:19-05 | 15 | 15 | NA |
| AFGDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for Afghanistan | 2002-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:06-05 | 15 | 15 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| AREGGRXOGDPXOPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Non-oil Revenue for General Government for United Arab Emirates | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of Non-oil GDP | % of Non-oil GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 15 | 15 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| CAPUTLG211S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Capacity Utilization: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Percent of Capacity | % of Capacity | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:07-06 | 15 | 32 | For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. NAICS = 211 Source Code: CAPUTL.G211.S |
| IRNBCAGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Current Account Balance for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 15 | 15 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| OLPRUKA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Oil Prices in the United Kingdom | 1861-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars per Barrel | U.S. $ per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-06-09 08:52:18-05 | 15 | 15 | This series was constructed by the Bank of England as part of the Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data project by combining data from a number of academic and official sources. For more information, please refer to the Three Centuries spreadsheet at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/onebank/threecenturies.aspx. Users are advised to check the underlying assumptions behind this series in the relevant worksheets of the spreadsheet. In many cases alternative assumptions might be appropriate. Users are permitted to reproduce this series in their own work as it represents Bank calculations and manipulations of underlying series that are the copyright of the Bank of England provided that underlying sources are cited appropriately. For appropriate citation please see the Three Centuries spreadsheet for guidance and a list of the underlying sources. |
| TXOILGASNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross Domestic Product by Industry: Private Industries: Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction for Texas | 1997-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-19 16:07:44-06 | 15 | 15 | For more information about this release go to http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgsp_newsrelease.htm. |
| PCU3112231122 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Starch and Vegetable Fats and Oils Manufacturing | 2003-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2003=100 | Index Dec 2003=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:16-06 | 15 | 15 | NA |
| IPN213111S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Drilling oil and gas wells | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:05-06 | 15 | 37 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 213111 Source Code: IP.N213111.S |
| IRNGGDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total Government Debt for General Government for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:04-05 | 14 | 14 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| ARENGDPXORPCHPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Non-Oil Real GDP Growth in Constant Prices for United Arab Emirates | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent Change | % Chg. | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:05-05 | 14 | 14 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| AREDGDPGDPPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total External Debt for United Arab Emirates | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent of GDP | % of GDP | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:04-05 | 14 | 14 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PCU213112213112 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:14-06 | 14 | 14 | NA |
| ARENXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for United Arab Emirates | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:06-05 | 14 | 14 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| LBYNXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for Libya | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:06-05 | 14 | 14 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| AZENXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for Azerbaijan | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:05-05 | 13 | 13 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| SAUNGDPORPCHPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Oil Real GDP Growth in Constant Prices for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent Change | % Chg. | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 13 | 13 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| M0481AUS000NYM264NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Wholesale Prices of Linseed Oil; Raw, in Barrels for New York | 1890-01-01 | 1952-05-01 | Monthly | M | Cents per Gallon | Cents per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-16 14:54:21-05 | 13 | 17 | Series Is Presented Here As Two Variables– (1)–Original Data, 1890-1952 (2)–Original Data, 1952-1958. Additionally, Series 04081B Is Comprised Of By Original Data For Crude Cottonseed Oil For 1909-1941. For 1890-1917, Prices On First Saturday Of Each Month. For 1918-1957, Average Of Weekly Quotations From Oil, Paint, And Drug Reporter. For 1890-1913, Called Linseed Oil, Raw, City, Barrels. For 1913-1916, Raw, In Barrels. For 1917-1935, Linseed Oil, Raw. Beginning In 1927, The Series Was Converted From Pounds To Gallons By Multiplying By 7.5 (1926 Given In Both Pounds And Gallons). There Was A Slight Discrepancy Between Data Per Gallon As Given And Computed Data. In 1947, Bls Code Number 06-22-36 Replaces Old Number 552. Series Ends On This Basis Following May, 1952. Source: Bls Bulletin No. 39 (Pp. 418-419) For 1890-1901; Nos. 45, 51, 57, 63, 69, 75, 81, 87, 93, 99, 114, 149, 181, 200, 226, 269, 296, 335, 367, 415, 440, 473, 493, 521, 543, 572; 1932-June, 1935 Monthly Bulletins, “Wholesale Prices.” For 1942 On: Bls Bulletin Nos. 718, 736, 759, 785, 870, 877, And 920 For 1942-1946, And 1143 For 1951 On. Bls, Prices And Price Relatives For Individual Commodities In The Revised Index: 1947-1950, Group 6–Chemicals And Allied Products, For 1947-1950; Monthly Wholesale Prices For 1952. This NBER data series m04081a appears on the NBER website in Chapter 4 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter04.html. NBER Indicator: m04081a |
| IP2709 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Import Price Index (Harmonized System): Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, crude | 1992-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2000=100 | Index 2000=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 07:51:04-06 | 13 | 13 | For more information, please see the Import/Export Price Indexes web site at http://www.bls.gov/mxp |
| KAZNXGOCMBD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Crude Oil Exports for Kazakhstan | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Barrels Per Day | Barrels Per Day | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 13 | 13 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IRNPCPIPCHPT | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Inflation for Iran, Islamic Republic of | 2001-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | Percent Change | % Chg. | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:26-05 | 13 | 13 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| SAUNGDPDUSD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross Domestic Product in Current Prices for Saudi Arabia | 2000-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars | U.S. $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:02-05 | 13 | 13 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| PCU3241913241910 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Petroleum Lubricating Oil and Grease Manufacturing: Petroleum Lubricating Oils and Greases, Refined Petroleum | 1974-04-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1980=100 | Index Dec 1980=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:26-06 | 13 | 13 | NA |
| SAUPZPIOILBEBUSD | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Breakeven External Oil Price for Saudi Arabia | 2008-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | Annual | A | US Dollars Per Barrel | US $ Per Barrel | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-06-08 06:31:03-05 | 13 | 13 | The observation values for the 2015 and 2016 annual periods are forecasted values from the IMF staff. The forecasts reflect data available through early September 2015. In making their predictions, the staff has assumed that (i) established policies of national authorities will be maintained, (ii) the price of oil will average US$51.6 per barrel in 2015 and US$50.4 in 2016, and (ii) the 6-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2015 and 1.2 percent in 2016. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| M04182US000NYM264NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Wholesale Prices of Kerosene, Refined, 150 Degree Fire Test, Water White for New York | 1890-01-01 | 1923-12-01 | Monthly | M | Cents per Gallon | Cents Per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-16 14:51:34-05 | 13 | 13 | Kerosene In Barrels, Packages Included (Jobbing Lots). Quotations Are From Oil, Paint,And Drug Reporter: 1890-1903 Are From The First Of Every Month; 1914-1917 Are From First Saturday Of Month; 1918 And Following Are The Average Of 4 Or 5 Saturday Quotations Each Month. In 1913, No Mention Is Made Of “Packages.” This Series Was Discontinued After 1923. Source: Bls Bulletin No. 39, Pp. 392-393 For 1890-1901 And Nos. 45, 51, 57, 63, 69, 75, 81, 87, 93, 99, 114, 149, 181, 200, 226, 269, 296, 335, 367, 390, 415, 440, 473, 493, 521, 543, 572, And Monthly Bulletins For 1932-June, 1935, “Wholesale Prices, December Issue,” Wholesale Prices" July- December, 1935. This NBER data series m04182 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 4 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter04.html. NBER Indicator: m04182 |
gasoline.series<-fred$series.search("GASOLINE")
gasoline.series %>% kable() %>% kable_styling() %>% scroll_box(width = "910px", height = "400px")| id | realtime_start | realtime_end | title | observation_start | observation_end | frequency | frequency_short | units | units_short | seasonal_adjustment | seasonal_adjustment_short | last_updated | popularity | group_popularity | notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHHNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price | 1997-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Million BTU | $ Per Mil. BTU | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 14:01:02-06 | 54 | 61 | More information about this series can be found at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/TblDefs/ng_pri_fut_tbldef2.asp |
| GASREGW | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US Regular All Formulations Gas Price | 1990-08-20 | 2018-11-26 | Weekly, Ending Monday | W | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:01-06 | 52 | 54 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude. |
| CUUR0000SETB01 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Gasoline (all types) | 1935-03-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-14 07:54:48-06 | 52 | 55 | NA |
| DHHNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price | 1997-01-07 | 2018-11-26 | Daily | D | Dollars per Million BTU | $ Per Mil. BTU | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:02-06 | 45 | 61 | More information about this series can be found at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/TblDefs/ng_pri_fut_tbldef2.asp |
| IPG2211A2N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Electric and gas utilities | 1939-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-16 08:31:06-06 | 44 | 55 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 2211,2 Source Code: IP.G2211A2.N |
| PCU21311121311101 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells: Drilling Oil, Gas, Dry, or Service Wells (DISCONTINUED) | 1985-12-01 | 2017-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-01-11 09:01:04-06 | 43 | 42 | NA |
| IPUTIL | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Electric and Gas Utilities | 1939-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:03-06 | 39 | 55 | NA |
| PCU3251203251207 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing: Nitrogen | 1981-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1981=100 | Index Jun 1981=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:04-06 | 38 | 38 | NA |
| PCU325120325120A | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing: Oxygen | 1981-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1981=100 | Index Jun 1981=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:04-06 | 38 | 38 | NA |
| GASREGCOVM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US Regular Conventional Gas Price | 1990-09-01 | 2018-11-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:01-06 | 36 | 45 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. All Formulations includes both conventional gasoline and reformulated gasoline. |
| MNGLCP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price | 2009-01-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Million BTU | $ Per Mil. BTU | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:03-06 | 36 | 36 | More information about this series can be found at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/TblDefs/ng_pri_fut_tbldef2.asp |
| CES1021100001 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | All Employees: Mining and Logging: Oil and Gas Extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Thousands of Persons | Thous. of Persons | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-02 08:18:02-05 | 35 | 36 | The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’ The source code is: CES1021100001 |
| CUSR0000SETB01 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Gasoline (all types) | 1967-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-14 07:54:49-06 | 35 | 55 | NA |
| IPN213111N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Drilling oil and gas wells | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-16 08:31:03-06 | 34 | 37 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 213111 Source Code: IP.N213111.N |
| PCU325120325120C | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing: Argon and Hydrogen | 2009-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 2009=100 | Index Jun 2009=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:06-06 | 34 | 34 | NA |
| PCU2111112111111 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction: Crude Petroleum | 1984-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1984=100 | Index Jun 1984=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:08-06 | 33 | 33 | NA |
| GASREGCOVW | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US Regular Conventional Gas Price | 1990-08-20 | 2018-11-26 | Weekly | W | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:01-06 | 32 | 45 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. All Formulations includes both conventional gasoline and reformulated gasoline. |
| PCU333132333132 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing | 1965-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1980=100 | Index Dec 1980=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:11-06 | 32 | 32 | NA |
| PCU21111221111213 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Liquid Extraction: Butane | 1984-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1984=100 | Index Jun 1984=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:07-06 | 30 | 30 | NA |
| RSGASS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Advance Retail Sales: Gasoline Stations | 1992-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-15 07:41:19-06 | 30 | 32 | The value for the most recent month is an advance estimate that is based on data from a subsample of firms from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. The advance estimate will be superseded in following months by revised estimates derived from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. The associated series from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey is available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM447USS Information about the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Survey can be found on the Census website at https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/about_the_surveys.html |
| WHHNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price | 1997-01-10 | 2018-11-23 | Weekly | W | Dollars per Million BTU | $ Per Mil. BTU | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:02-06 | 30 | 61 | More information about this series can be found at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/TblDefs/ng_pri_fut_tbldef2.asp |
| CAPUTLG211SQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Capacity Utilization: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Percent of Capacity | % of Capacity | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:05-06 | 28 | 32 | For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. NAICS = 211 Source Code: CAPUTL.G211.S |
| GASREGM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US Regular All Formulations Gas Price | 1990-09-01 | 2018-11-01 | Monthly, End of Period | M | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:02-06 | 28 | 54 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude. |
| NATURALGAS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Natural Gas Consumption | 2000-01-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Billion Cubic Feet | Bil. Cubic Feet | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 12:31:03-06 | 28 | 29 | This data is collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) available at: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2m.htm and http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html (forecast). |
| WPU1191 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Commodity for Machinery and Equipment: Oil Field and Gas Field Machinery | 1947-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982=100 | Index 1982=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:08-06 | 27 | 27 | NA |
| PCU21112111 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Extraction | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:07-06 | 25 | 27 | NA |
| DGOERC1Q027SBEA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Gasoline and other energy goods | 1947-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Billions of Dollars | Bil. of $ | Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate | SAAR | 2018-11-28 07:51:11-06 | 24 | 26 | BEA Account Code: DGOERC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/. |
| PNGASUSUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Natural Gas, US Henry Hub Gas | 1991-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit | U.S. $ per Mil. Metric British Thermal Unit | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 09:01:03-05 | 24 | 30 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IPG211S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:05-06 | 24 | 26 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211 Source Code: IP.G211.S |
| DGASUSGULF | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Conventional Gasoline Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast, Regular | 1986-06-02 | 2018-11-26 | Daily | D | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:03-06 | 24 | 25 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| LNU04032230 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Unemployment Rate: Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, Nonagricultural Private Wage and Salary Workers | 2000-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Percent | % | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-02 08:18:06-05 | 22 | 22 | The series comes from the ‘Current Population Survey (Household Survey)’ The source code is: LNU04032230 |
| PCU3331323331323Z | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing: Other Oil and Gas Field Drilling Machinery and Equipment (DISCONTINUED) | 1986-12-01 | 2017-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1986=100 | Index Dec 1986=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-01-11 09:01:07-06 | 21 | 21 | NA |
| PCU213111213111 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:17-06 | 21 | 21 | NA |
| DGASNYH | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Conventional Gasoline Prices: New York Harbor, Regular | 1986-06-02 | 2018-11-26 | Daily | D | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:03-06 | 20 | 21 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| PCU33361133361105 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Turbine and Turbine Generator Set Units Manufacturing: Steam, Gas, and Other Turbines and Turbine Generators | 2003-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2003=100 | Index Dec 2003=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:08-06 | 20 | 20 | NA |
| PNGASEUUSDM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Natural gas, EU | 1985-01-01 | 2017-06-01 | Monthly | M | U.S. Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit | U.S. $ per Mil. Metric British Thermal Unit | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-07-12 11:41:05-05 | 19 | 21 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| GASPRICE | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Natural Gas Price: Henry Hub, LA (DISCONTINUED) | 1993-11-01 | 2014-02-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Million BTU | $ per Mil. BTU | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2014-04-10 13:29:49-05 | 19 | 19 | The September 2005 figure is the average of prices from September 1 through September 22. Spot prices were not available for Henry Hub Natural Gas starting on September 23, 2005, due to Hurricane Rita. Copyright, 2016, Dow Jones & Company In March 2014, the Wall Street Journal discontinued publication of some of its commodity energy prices. |
| CPGREN01USA657N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index: OECD Groups: Fuel, Electricity, and Gasoline for the United States | 1960-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Growth Rate Previous Period | Growth Rate Previous Period | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-10-19 09:43:28-05 | 18 | 24 | OECD descriptor ID: CPGREN01 OECD unit ID: GP OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, “Main Economic Indicators - complete database”, Main Economic Indicators (database),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission. |
| PCU21111221111214 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Liquid Extraction: Plant Condensate, Ethane, Gas Mixtures, and Other Natural Gas Liquids | 1996-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1996=100 | Index Jun 1996=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:09-06 | 17 | 17 | NA |
| PCU22121022121011 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Distribution: Natural Gas to Ultimate Consumers | 1990-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1990=100 | Index Dec 1990=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:17-06 | 16 | 16 | NA |
| WPU11910604 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Commodity for Machinery and Equipment: Parts and Attachments for Oil and Gas Field Production Machinery | 2010-12-01 | 2018-08-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2010=100 | Index Dec 2010=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-09-12 08:01:19-05 | 15 | 15 | NA |
| CAPUTLG2211A2S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Capacity Utilization: Electric and gas utilities | 1967-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Percent of Capacity | % of Capacity | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:06-06 | 15 | 20 | For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. NAICS = 2211,2 Source Code: CAPUTL.G2211A2.S |
| CAPUTLG211S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Capacity Utilization: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Percent of Capacity | % of Capacity | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:07-06 | 15 | 32 | For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. NAICS = 211 Source Code: CAPUTL.G211.S |
| TXOILGASNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross Domestic Product by Industry: Private Industries: Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction for Texas | 1997-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-19 16:07:44-06 | 15 | 15 | For more information about this release go to http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgsp_newsrelease.htm. |
| PNGASUSUSDA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Global price of Natural Gas, US Henry Hub Gas | 1991-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | U.S. Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit | U.S. $ per Mil. Metric British Thermal Unit | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2017-02-01 09:11:07-06 | 15 | 30 | Value represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. |
| IPN213111S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Drilling oil and gas wells | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:05-06 | 15 | 37 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 213111 Source Code: IP.N213111.S |
| AHHNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price | 1997-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Dollars per Million BTU | $ Per Mil. BTU | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-05-31 14:01:03-05 | 14 | 61 | More information about this series can be found at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/TblDefs/ng_pri_fut_tbldef2.asp |
| PCU213112213112 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:14-06 | 14 | 14 | NA |
| PCU3251203251204 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing: Carbon Dioxide | 1981-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1981=100 | Index Jun 1981=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:45-06 | 14 | 14 | NA |
| CUSR0000SEHF02 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers - Utility (piped) gas service | 1952-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-14 07:54:52-06 | 13 | 14 | The term “utility (piped) gas service” refers to natural gas. |
| GASALLW | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US All Grades All Formulations Gas Price | 1993-04-05 | 2018-11-26 | Weekly, Ending Monday | W | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:02-06 | 13 | 17 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. All Formulations includes both conventional gasoline and reformulated gasoline. |
| PCU325120325120T | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing: Other Industrial Gases (Including Fluorocarbon) | 2009-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 2009=100 | Index Jun 2009=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:23-06 | 12 | 12 | NA |
| A33DNO | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Value of Manufacturers’ New Orders for Durable Goods Industries: Machinery: Mining, Oil Field, and Gas Field Machinery | 1992-02-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Million of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-02 11:01:05-05 | 12 | 14 | NA |
| PCU3251203251201 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing: Acetylene | 1981-06-01 | 2013-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1981=100 | Index Jun 1981=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2015-05-15 08:44:32-05 | 12 | 12 | NA |
| IPN211111GS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Natural gas | 1972-01-01 | 2018-08-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:06-06 | 12 | 13 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211111pt. Source Code: IP.N211111G.S |
| PCU333912333912 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Air and Gas Compressor Manufacturing | 1984-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1984=100 | Index Jun 1984=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:29-06 | 11 | 11 | NA |
| CPGREN01ITM659N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index: OECD Groups: Fuel, Electricity, and Gasoline for Italy | 1961-01-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year | Growth Rate Same Period Previous Yr. | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-23 11:18:14-06 | 10 | 11 | OECD descriptor ID: CPGREN01 OECD unit ID: GY OECD country ID: ITA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, “Main Economic Indicators - complete database”, Main Economic Indicators (database),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission. |
| PCU325120325120 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Industrial Gas Manufacturing | 2003-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2003=100 | Index Dec 2003=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:18-06 | 10 | 10 | NA |
| TX10211000M175FRBDAL | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction Payroll Employment in Texas | 1990-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Thousands of Persons | Thous. of Persons | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 16:21:03-06 | 10 | 10 | The Dallas Fed has improved the quality of the payroll employment estimates for Texas using early benchmarking and two-step seasonal adjustment. More information regarding the early benchmarking technique can be found at http://www.dallasfed.org/research/basics/benchmark.cfm. More information pertaining to two-step seasonal adjustment can be found at http://www.dallasfed.org/research/basics/twostep.cfm. |
| PCU213111213111P | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells: Primary Services | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:23-06 | 10 | 10 | NA |
| PCU21111221111212 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Liquid Extraction: Propane | 1984-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1984=100 | Index Jun 1984=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:02:09-06 | 9 | 9 | NA |
| REV22121TAXABL144QNSA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Total Revenue for Natural Gas Distribution, Establishments Subject to Federal Income Tax | 2010-01-01 | 2018-04-01 | Quarterly | Q | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-16 09:31:02-06 | 9 | 9 | For further information regarding Quarterly Services, visit the source website at http://www.census.gov/services/ |
| CAPUTLG2211A2SQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Capacity Utilization: Electric and gas utilities | 1967-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Percent of Capacity | % of Capacity | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:07-06 | 9 | 20 | For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. NAICS = 2211,2 Source Code: CAPUTL.G2211A2.S |
| RGMPOILGASUSMP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Real Gross Domestic Product: Private Industries: Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction for United States Metropolitan Portion | 2001-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars | Mil. of Chn. 2009 $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-09-18 08:31:08-05 | 9 | 9 | The category “Oil and gas extraction” is used in both the SIC system and in NAICS, but it does not have the same definition in both systems. SIC definition: This major SIC group includes establishments primarily engaged in: (1) producing crude petroleum and natural gas; (2) extracting oil from oil sands and oil shale; (3) producing natural gasoline and cycle condensate; and (4) producing gas and hydrocarbon liquids form coal at the mine site. Types of activities included are exploration, drilling, oil and gas well operation and maintenance, the operation of natural gasoline and cycle plants, and the gasification, liquefaction, and pyrolysis of coal at the mine site. This major group also includes such basic activities as emulsion breaking and desilting of crude petroleum in the preparation of oil and gas customarily done at the field site. NAICS definition: Industries in the Oil and Gas Extraction NAICS subsector operate and/or develop oil and gas field properties. Such activities may include exploration for crude petroleum and natural gas; drilling, completing, and equipping wells; operating separators, emulsion breakers, desilting equipment, and field gathering lines for crude petroleum and natural gas; and all other activities in the preparation of oil and gas up to the point of shipment from the producing property. This subsector includes the production of crude petroleum, the mining and extraction of oil from oil shale and oil sands, and the production of natural gas, sulfur recovery from natural gas, and recovery of hydrocarbon liquids. Consists of all counties in a state that are parts of metropolitan statistical areas. For more information about this release go to http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/gdp_metro_newsrelease.htm. |
| MARTSMPCSM44W72USS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services, Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and Gasoline Stations | 1992-02-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Percent Change from Preceding Period | % Chg. from Preceding Period | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-15 07:41:25-06 | 9 | 11 | NA |
| WRGASLA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Prices: Regular Gasoline: Los Angeles | 2003-09-12 | 2018-11-23 | Weekly, Ending Friday | W | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-28 14:01:03-06 | 9 | 12 | Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp |
| PCU3331323331321 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing: Rotary Oil and Gas Field Drilling Machinery and Equipment | 1986-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1986=100 | Index Dec 1986=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:18-06 | 9 | 9 | NA |
| RSGASSN | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Advance Retail Sales: Gasoline Stations | 1992-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-15 07:41:19-06 | 9 | 32 | The value for the most recent month is an advance estimate that is based on data from a subsample of firms from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. The advance estimate will be superseded in following months by revised estimates derived from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. The associated series from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey is available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MRTSSM447USN Information about the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Survey can be found on the Census website at https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/about_the_surveys.html |
| LAOILGASNGSP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross Domestic Product by Industry: Private Industries: Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction for Louisiana | 1997-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-19 16:07:44-06 | 9 | 9 | For more information about this release go to http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgsp_newsrelease.htm. |
| IPG2211A2SQ | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Electric and gas utilities | 1939-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:11-06 | 9 | 55 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 2211,2 Source Code: IP.G2211A2.S |
| WPU0531 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Commodity for Fuels and Related Products and Power: Natural Gas | 1967-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 1982=100 | Index 1982=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:32-06 | 9 | 9 | NA |
| CUUS0000SETB01 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Gasoline (all types) | 1984-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | Semiannual | SA | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-07-12 07:53:04-05 | 8 | 55 | NA |
| GASALLM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US All Grades All Formulations Gas Price | 1993-04-01 | 2018-11-01 | Monthly, End of Period | M | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:02-06 | 8 | 17 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. All Formulations includes both conventional gasoline and reformulated gasoline. |
| M0127AUSM387NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gasoline, Total Domestic Demand for United States | 1917-08-01 | 1930-12-01 | Monthly | M | Millions of Barrels (Of 42 Gallons) | Mil. Of Barrels (Of 42 Gallons) | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-15 15:49:32-05 | 8 | 8 | Series Is Presented Here As Two Variables–(1)–Original Data, 1917-1930 (2)–Original Data, 1926-1962. Data Were Computed By The Bureau Of Mines From Stocks At First Of Month, Plus Production, Plus Imports, Minus Exports, Minus Stocks At End Of Month. The Bureau Of Mines Prefers To Call These Estimates “Demand” Rather Than Consumption, Since There Are Substantial Unreported Stocks. Source: Bureau Of Mines, Petroleum Refinery Statistics, Various Issues Of Minerals Yearbook, Monthly Petroleum Statements, Mineral Industry Surveys, And Survey Of Current Business. This NBER data series m01127a appears on the NBER website in Chapter 1 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter01.html. NBER Indicator: m01127a |
| GASREGA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US Regular All Formulations Gas Price | 1992-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-01-03 12:31:01-06 | 8 | 54 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. All Formulations includes both conventional gasoline and reformulated gasoline. |
| NATURALGASD11 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Natural Gas Consumption | 2000-01-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Billion Cubic Feet | Bil. Cubic Feet | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-15 12:31:04-06 | 8 | 29 | NA |
| NGMPRETAILUSMP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross Domestic Product: Private Industries: Retail Trade for United States Metropolitan Portion | 2001-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-09-18 08:31:07-05 | 8 | 8 | The term “retail trade” is used in the SIC system and in NAICS, but it does not have the same definition in both systems. SIC definition:This SIC division includes establishments engaged in selling merchandise for personal or household consumption and rendering services incidental to the sale of the goods. In general, retail establishments are classified by kind of business according to the principal lines of commodities sold (groceries, hardware, etc.), or the usual trade designation (drug store, cigar store, etc.). Some of the important characteristics of retail trade establishments are: the establishment is usually a place of business and is engaged in activities to attract the general public to buy; the establishment buys or receives merchandise as well as sells; the establishment may process its products, but such processing is incidental or subordinate to selling; the establishment is considered as retail in the trade; and the establishment sells to customers for personal or household use. Not all of these characteristics need be present and some are modified by trade practice. NAICS definition:The Retail Trade NAICS sector comprises establishments engaged in retailing merchandise, generally without transformation, and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise. The retailing process is the final step in the distribution of merchandise; retailers are, therefore, organized to sell merchandise in small quantities to the general public. This sector comprises two main types of retailers: store and nonstore retailers. 1. Store retailers operate fixed point-of-sale locations, located and designed to attract a high volume of walk-in customers. In general, retail stores have extensive displays of merchandise and use mass-media advertising to attract customers. They typically sell merchandise to the general public for personal or household consumption, but some also serve business and institutional clients. These include establishments, such as office supply stores, computer and software stores, building materials dealers, plumbing supply stores, and electrical supply stores. Catalog showrooms, gasoline stations, automotive dealers, and mobile home dealers are treated as store retailers. In addition to retailing merchandise, some types of store retailers are also engaged in the provision of after-sales services, such as repair and installation. For example, new automobile dealers, electronic and appliance stores, and musical instrument and supply stores often provide repair services. As a general rule, establishments engaged in retailing merchandise and providing after-sales services are classified in this sector. 2. Nonstore retailers, like store retailers, are organized to serve the general public, but their retailing methods differ. The establishments of this subsector reach customers and market merchandise with methods, such as the broadcasting of “infomercials,” the broadcasting and publishing of direct-response advertising, the publishing of paper and electronic catalogs, door-to-door solicitation, in-home demonstration, selling from portable stalls (street vendors, except food), and distribution through vending machines. Establishments engaged in the direct sale (nonstore) of products, such as home heating oil dealers and home delivery newspaper routes are included here. Consists of all counties in a state that are parts of metropolitan statistical areas. For more information about this release go to http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/gdp_metro_newsrelease.htm. |
| MRTSSM447USS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Retail Sales: Gasoline Stations | 1992-01-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-15 09:11:04-06 | 8 | 11 | The most recent month’s value of the advance estimate based on data from a subsample of firms from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey is available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSGASS Information about the Monthly Retail Trade Survey can be found on the Census website at https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/about_the_surveys.html |
| PCU21311121311103 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells: Oil and Gas Well Directional Drilling Control | 2003-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 2003=100 | Index Dec 2003=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:17-06 | 7 | 7 | NA |
| DGOERC1A027NBEA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Gasoline and other energy goods | 1929-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Billions of Dollars | Bil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-07-27 10:33:35-05 | 7 | 26 | BEA Account Code: DGOERC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/. |
| CPGREN01USQ657N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index: OECD Groups: Fuel, Electricity, and Gasoline for the United States | 1960-01-01 | 2018-07-01 | Quarterly | Q | Growth Rate Previous Period | Growth Rate Previous Period | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-23 11:01:38-06 | 7 | 24 | OECD descriptor ID: CPGREN01 OECD unit ID: GP OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, “Main Economic Indicators - complete database”, Main Economic Indicators (database),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission. |
| CPGREN01USM657N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index: OECD Groups: Fuel, Electricity, and Gasoline for the United States | 1960-01-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Growth Rate Previous Period | Growth Rate Previous Period | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-23 11:18:12-06 | 6 | 24 | OECD descriptor ID: CPGREN01 OECD unit ID: GP OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, “Main Economic Indicators - complete database”, Main Economic Indicators (database),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission. |
| IPN33313S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Durable Goods: Mining and oil and gas field machinery | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:11-06 | 6 | 8 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 33313 Source Code: IP.N33313.S |
| DEGFRX1A020NBEA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Real personal consumption expenditures: Household utilities and fuels: Electricity, gas, and other fuels | 2002-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars | Bil. of Chn. 2009 $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-08-08 14:11:07-05 | 6 | 6 | BEA Account Code: DEGFRX For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/. |
| CP0400USM086NEST | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels for United States | 2001-12-01 | 2018-09-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2015=100 | Index 2015=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-10-17 07:21:04-05 | 6 | 6 | The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices category “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels (04)”; is a classification of nondurable goods, services, and energy. The category; Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels (04); contains Actual Rentals for Housing (04.1), Maintenance and Repair of the Dwelling (04.3), Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling (04.4), and Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels (04.5) categories and all subcategories therein. Information provided in the notes pertaining to HICP classifications can be found from the source at: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/prc_hicp_esms.htm. Copyright, European Union, 1995-2016, http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm#copyright. |
| SMU48264201021100001SA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | All Employees: Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (MSA) | 1990-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Thousands of Persons | Thous. of Persons | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 15:56:23-06 | 6 | 8 | The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis seasonally adjusts this series by using the ‘x12’ package from R with default parameter settings. The package uses the U.S. Bureau of the Census X13-ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Program. More information on the ‘x12’ package can be found at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/x12/index.html. More information on X13-ARIMA-SEATS can be found at https://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/. |
| CEU1021100001 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | All Employees: Mining and Logging: Oil and Gas Extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Thousands of Persons | Thous. of Persons | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-02 08:18:13-05 | 6 | 36 | The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’ The source code is: CEU1021100001 |
| PCU21111221111211 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Liquid Extraction: Isopentane and Natural Gasoline | 1984-06-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1984=100 | Index Jun 1984=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:37-06 | 6 | 6 | NA |
| PCU211211 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Extraction | 1985-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1985=100 | Index Dec 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:31-06 | 6 | 27 | NA |
| PCU3331323331327 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing: Portable Oil and Gas Field Drilling Rigs and Parts (Above Ground) | 1986-12-01 | 2010-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1986=100 | Index Dec 1986=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2015-05-15 08:33:22-05 | 6 | 6 | NA |
| GASALLCOVM | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | US All Grades Conventional Gas Price | 1994-12-01 | 2018-11-01 | Monthly | M | Dollars per Gallon | $ per Gallon | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-26 17:11:08-06 | 6 | 7 | Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. All Formulations includes both conventional gasoline and reformulated gasoline. |
| MARTSSM44W72USS | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services, Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and Gasoline Stations | 1992-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-15 07:41:24-06 | 6 | 11 | NA |
| PCU221210221210114 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Distribution: Industrial Natural Gas | 1990-12-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index Dec 1990=100 | Index Dec 1990=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-09 08:01:37-06 | 5 | 5 | NA |
| PCU324110324110DY | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Producer Price Index by Industry: Petroleum Refineries: Heavy Fuel Oils, Including No. 5, No. 6, Heavy Diesel, Gas Enrichment Oils, Etc. (DISCONTINUED) | 1947-01-01 | 2017-12-01 | Monthly | M | Index Jun 1985=100 | Index Jun 1985=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-01-11 09:01:58-06 | 5 | 5 | NA |
| IPG211N | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Production: Mining: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-11-16 08:31:09-06 | 5 | 26 | The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. NAICS = 211 Source Code: IP.G211.N |
| B2000C1A027NBEA | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Taxes on production and imports: Federal: Excise taxes: Gasoline | 1959-01-01 | 2017-01-01 | Annual | A | Billions of Dollars | Bil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-08-08 14:11:17-05 | 5 | 5 | BEA Account Code: B2000C For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/. |
| CUUS0000SS47014 | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Gasoline, unleaded regular | 1984-01-01 | 2018-01-01 | Semiannual | SA | Index 1982-1984=100 | Index 1982-84=100 | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-07-12 07:53:07-05 | 5 | 5 | NA |
| A02230USA398NNBR | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Expenditures for Petroleum and Natural Gas Well Drilling for United States | 1889-01-01 | 1963-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Current Dollars | Mil. of Current $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2012-08-16 11:36:39-05 | 5 | 5 | The Kuznets Data Were Calculated By Multiplying The Series In 1929 Prices By The Price Index For Petroleum Pipe Lines. For 1915-28, This Price Index Was Calculated For “Construction And Building Materials, Statistical Supplement”, May 1954, Pp. 33 And 82, And It Was Extrapolated Back From 1915 By The Total Construction Cost Index Described In Kuznets,“National Product Since 1869”, Table Iv-4, Notes To Line 1. The Dept. Of Commerce Estimates Were Prepared By The Building Materials And Construction Division Of The Business And Defense Services Administration. They Represent All Costs Of Drilling, Including The Cost Of Casings. The Cost Of Installed Production Equipment, Such As Flowing And Pumping Equipment, Is Excluded. The Figures Are Based On The Cost Of Drilling Oil And Gas Wells, As Reported In The Census Of Mineral Industries, 1939 And 1958, Interpolated And Extrapolated By Annual Data On The Number Of Wells Completed (From Trade Sources) And On Average Cost Per Well (Estimated By The Compiling Agency). Source: 1889-1928: Unpublished Annual Estimates Which Underly Five-Year Moving Averages Published, With Explanatory Notes, In Simon Kuznets, “Capital In The American Economy,” Princeton University Press For NBER, 1961, Tables R-5, Pp. 492-493; R-15, Pp. 526-527; And R-30, Pp. 576-587. 1929-1938:“National Income”, 1954 Edition, Supplement To “Survey Of Current Business”, Footnote 8 To Table 31, P. 209. 1939-1945:“Construction And Building Materials, Statistical Supplement”, May 1954, U.S. Department Of Commerce, Business And Defense Services Administration, Table 24, P. 56. 1946-1956:“U.S. Income And Output”, Supplement To “Survey Of Current Business”, 1958. 1957-1963:“Survey Of Current Business”, July Issues, 1962 And 1964. This NBER data series a02230 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 2 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter02.html. NBER Indicator: a02230 |
| CAPG211S | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Industrial Capacity: Mining: Oil and gas extraction | 1972-01-01 | 2018-10-01 | Monthly | M | Index 2012=100 | Index 2012=100 | Seasonally Adjusted | SA | 2018-11-16 08:31:15-06 | 5 | 5 | NAICS = 211 Source Code: CAP.G211.S |
| NGMPOILGASUSMP | 2018-12-02 | 2018-12-02 | Gross Domestic Product: Private Industries: Mining: Oil and Gas Extraction for United States Metropolitan Portion | 2001-01-01 | 2016-01-01 | Annual | A | Millions of Dollars | Mil. of $ | Not Seasonally Adjusted | NSA | 2018-09-18 08:31:19-05 | 4 | 4 | The category “Oil and gas extraction” is used in both the SIC system and in NAICS, but it does not have the same definition in both systems. SIC definition: This major SIC group includes establishments primarily engaged in: (1) producing crude petroleum and natural gas; (2) extracting oil from oil sands and oil shale; (3) producing natural gasoline and cycle condensate; and (4) producing gas and hydrocarbon liquids form coal at the mine site. Types of activities included are exploration, drilling, oil and gas well operation and maintenance, the operation of natural gasoline and cycle plants, and the gasification, liquefaction, and pyrolysis of coal at the mine site. This major group also includes such basic activities as emulsion breaking and desilting of crude petroleum in the preparation of oil and gas customarily done at the field site. NAICS definition: Industries in the Oil and Gas Extraction NAICS subsector operate and/or develop oil and gas field properties. Such activities may include exploration for crude petroleum and natural gas; drilling, completing, and equipping wells; operating separators, emulsion breakers, desilting equipment, and field gathering lines for crude petroleum and natural gas; and all other activities in the preparation of oil and gas up to the point of shipment from the producing property. This subsector includes the production of crude petroleum, the mining and extraction of oil from oil shale and oil sands, and the production of natural gas, sulfur recovery from natural gas, and recovery of hydrocarbon liquids. Consists of all counties in a state that are parts of metropolitan statistical areas. For more information about this release go to http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/gdp_metro_newsrelease.htm. |
** Oil Data **
wti<-fred$series.observations(series_id = 'DCOILWTICO')
brent<-fred$series.observations(series_id = 'DCOILBRENTEU')dtwti<-wti %>>%
select(
date,
value
) %>>%
mutate(
date = as.Date(date),
value = as.numeric(value)
) ## Warning in evalq(as.numeric(value), <environment>): NAs introduced by
## coercioncolnames(dtwti)<-c('Date','WTI_Price')
dtbrent<-brent %>>%
select(
date,
value
) %>>%
mutate(
date = as.Date(date),
value = as.numeric(value)
)## Warning in evalq(as.numeric(value), <environment>): NAs introduced by
## coercioncolnames(dtbrent)<-c('Date','Brent_Price')
dtOil<-full_join(dtwti,dtbrent) %>% tbl_df()## Joining, by = "Date"dt<-na.omit(dtOil)
dtOil$Diff_Oil<-(dtOil$WTI_Price - dtOil$Brent_Price)** Gasoline Data **
gasolineNY<-fred$series.observations(series_id = 'DGASNYH')
gasolineGOM<-fred$series.observations(series_id = 'DGASUSGULF')dtgasolineNY<-gasolineNY %>>%
select(
date,
value
) %>>%
mutate(
date = as.Date(date),
value = as.numeric(value)
) ## Warning in evalq(as.numeric(value), <environment>): NAs introduced by
## coercioncolnames(dtgasolineNY)<-c('Date','NY_Gasoline_Price')
dtgasolineGOM<-gasolineGOM %>>%
select(
date,
value
) %>>%
mutate(
date = as.Date(date),
value = as.numeric(value)
)## Warning in evalq(as.numeric(value), <environment>): NAs introduced by
## coercioncolnames(dtgasolineGOM)<-c('Date','GOM_Gasoline_Price')
dtGasoline<-full_join(dtgasolineNY,dtgasolineGOM) %>% tbl_df()## Joining, by = "Date"dtGasoline<-na.omit(dtGasoline)
dtGasoline$Diff_Gasoline<-(dtGasoline$GOM_Gasoline_Price - dtGasoline$NY_Gasoline_Price)Presidency Data
# We manually create a table with each president
presidents<-data.frame("Date"=c("1981-01-20","1989-01-20","1993-01-20","2001-01-20","2009-01-20","2017-01-20"),"Party"=c("Republican","Republican","Democrat","Republican","Democrat","Republican"),"President"=c("Ronal Reagan","George HW Bush","Bill Clinton","George W Bush","Barrak Obama","Donald Trump")) %>% mutate(Date=as.Date(Date))
## Then we add data for each day
days<-data.frame(seq(as.Date(presidents[1,1]),Sys.Date(),"days"))
colnames(days)<-c("Date")
days<-tbl_df(days)
dtPresidency<-full_join(days,presidents)## Joining, by = "Date"#using a for loop to fill in the NA rows
for(i in 1:nrow(dtPresidency)) {
if (is.na(dtPresidency$Party[i])) {
dtPresidency$Party[i]<-dtPresidency$Party[i-1]
dtPresidency$President[i]<-dtPresidency$President[i-1]
}
}Final Data Table
dtFinal<-full_join(dtPresidency,dtOil)## Joining, by = "Date"dtFinal<-full_join(dtFinal,dtGasoline)## Joining, by = "Date"dtFinal<-na.omit(dtFinal)
head(dtFinal,n=500) %>% kable() %>% kable_styling() %>% scroll_box(width = "1000px", height = "400px")| Date | Party | President | WTI_Price | Brent_Price | Diff_Oil | NY_Gasoline_Price | GOM_Gasoline_Price | Diff_Gasoline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987-05-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.75 | 18.63 | 1.12 | 0.543 | 0.529 | -0.014 |
| 1987-05-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.95 | 18.45 | 1.50 | 0.550 | 0.534 | -0.016 |
| 1987-05-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.68 | 18.55 | 1.13 | 0.552 | 0.535 | -0.017 |
| 1987-05-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.35 | 18.63 | 0.72 | 0.551 | 0.533 | -0.018 |
| 1987-05-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.38 | 18.60 | 0.78 | 0.551 | 0.532 | -0.019 |
| 1987-05-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.28 | 18.60 | 0.68 | 0.551 | 0.529 | -0.022 |
| 1987-05-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.36 | 18.58 | 0.78 | 0.552 | 0.531 | -0.021 |
| 1987-06-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.55 | 18.65 | 0.90 | 0.548 | 0.531 | -0.017 |
| 1987-06-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.70 | 18.68 | 1.02 | 0.552 | 0.529 | -0.023 |
| 1987-06-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.87 | 18.75 | 1.12 | 0.559 | 0.534 | -0.025 |
| 1987-06-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.75 | 18.78 | 0.97 | 0.557 | 0.535 | -0.022 |
| 1987-06-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.79 | 18.65 | 1.14 | 0.559 | 0.533 | -0.026 |
| 1987-06-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.94 | 18.75 | 1.19 | 0.566 | 0.545 | -0.021 |
| 1987-06-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.84 | 18.78 | 1.06 | 0.568 | 0.545 | -0.023 |
| 1987-06-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.83 | 18.78 | 1.05 | 0.569 | 0.541 | -0.028 |
| 1987-06-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.85 | 18.68 | 1.17 | 0.562 | 0.540 | -0.022 |
| 1987-06-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.93 | 18.78 | 1.15 | 0.561 | 0.539 | -0.022 |
| 1987-06-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.27 | 18.90 | 1.37 | 0.563 | 0.538 | -0.025 |
| 1987-06-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.41 | 19.03 | 1.38 | 0.559 | 0.534 | -0.025 |
| 1987-06-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.50 | 19.05 | 1.45 | 0.561 | 0.538 | -0.023 |
| 1987-06-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.65 | 19.05 | 1.60 | 0.558 | 0.535 | -0.023 |
| 1987-06-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.49 | 19.10 | 1.39 | 0.545 | 0.521 | -0.024 |
| 1987-06-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.95 | 18.90 | 1.05 | 0.544 | 0.524 | -0.020 |
| 1987-06-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.13 | 18.75 | 1.38 | 0.547 | 0.524 | -0.023 |
| 1987-06-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.15 | 18.70 | 1.45 | 0.545 | 0.523 | -0.022 |
| 1987-06-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.34 | 19.08 | 1.26 | 0.562 | 0.540 | -0.022 |
| 1987-06-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.38 | 19.15 | 1.23 | 0.559 | 0.540 | -0.019 |
| 1987-06-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.22 | 19.08 | 1.14 | 0.555 | 0.536 | -0.019 |
| 1987-07-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.47 | 18.98 | 1.49 | 0.553 | 0.539 | -0.014 |
| 1987-07-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.61 | 19.25 | 1.36 | 0.556 | 0.541 | -0.015 |
| 1987-07-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.92 | 19.48 | 1.44 | 0.559 | 0.546 | -0.013 |
| 1987-07-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.76 | 19.50 | 1.26 | 0.553 | 0.541 | -0.012 |
| 1987-07-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.94 | 19.48 | 1.46 | 0.554 | 0.542 | -0.012 |
| 1987-07-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.32 | 19.68 | 1.64 | 0.557 | 0.548 | -0.009 |
| 1987-07-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.34 | 19.73 | 1.61 | 0.558 | 0.546 | -0.012 |
| 1987-07-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.38 | 19.83 | 1.55 | 0.551 | 0.539 | -0.012 |
| 1987-07-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.65 | 19.88 | 1.77 | 0.558 | 0.549 | -0.009 |
| 1987-07-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 22.23 | 20.28 | 1.95 | 0.567 | 0.554 | -0.013 |
| 1987-07-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 22.44 | 20.40 | 2.04 | 0.565 | 0.559 | -0.006 |
| 1987-07-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 22.44 | 20.63 | 1.81 | 0.571 | 0.564 | -0.007 |
| 1987-07-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 22.23 | 20.55 | 1.68 | 0.571 | 0.562 | -0.009 |
| 1987-07-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.75 | 20.35 | 1.40 | 0.556 | 0.560 | 0.004 |
| 1987-07-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.73 | 20.33 | 1.40 | 0.556 | 0.560 | 0.004 |
| 1987-07-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.23 | 20.15 | 1.08 | 0.555 | 0.557 | 0.002 |
| 1987-07-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.58 | 19.58 | 1.00 | 0.545 | 0.549 | 0.004 |
| 1987-07-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.50 | 19.30 | 1.20 | 0.544 | 0.554 | 0.010 |
| 1987-07-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.35 | 19.78 | 1.57 | 0.558 | 0.563 | 0.005 |
| 1987-07-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.49 | 19.98 | 1.51 | 0.557 | 0.564 | 0.007 |
| 1987-07-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.47 | 20.20 | 1.27 | 0.549 | 0.559 | 0.010 |
| 1987-07-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.43 | 20.03 | 1.40 | 0.544 | 0.549 | 0.005 |
| 1987-08-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 22.21 | 20.95 | 1.26 | 0.555 | 0.558 | 0.003 |
| 1987-08-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.82 | 20.65 | 1.17 | 0.557 | 0.540 | -0.017 |
| 1987-08-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.37 | 19.80 | 1.57 | 0.548 | 0.556 | 0.008 |
| 1987-08-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.17 | 19.75 | 1.42 | 0.545 | 0.559 | 0.014 |
| 1987-08-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.01 | 19.65 | 1.36 | 0.544 | 0.559 | 0.015 |
| 1987-08-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.70 | 19.43 | 1.27 | 0.541 | 0.551 | 0.010 |
| 1987-08-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.07 | 19.45 | 1.62 | 0.546 | 0.556 | 0.010 |
| 1987-08-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.96 | 19.50 | 1.46 | 0.543 | 0.555 | 0.012 |
| 1987-08-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.76 | 19.40 | 1.36 | 0.539 | 0.542 | 0.003 |
| 1987-08-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.53 | 19.25 | 1.28 | 0.530 | 0.530 | 0.000 |
| 1987-08-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.85 | 18.85 | 1.00 | 0.515 | 0.516 | 0.001 |
| 1987-08-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.84 | 18.75 | 1.09 | 0.513 | 0.520 | 0.007 |
| 1987-08-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.71 | 18.50 | 1.21 | 0.506 | 0.521 | 0.015 |
| 1987-08-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.47 | 18.30 | 1.17 | 0.503 | 0.525 | 0.022 |
| 1987-08-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.20 | 18.10 | 1.10 | 0.496 | 0.516 | 0.020 |
| 1987-08-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.18 | 17.48 | 1.70 | 0.491 | 0.514 | 0.023 |
| 1987-08-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.30 | 17.55 | 1.75 | 0.489 | 0.485 | -0.004 |
| 1987-08-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.49 | 18.10 | 1.39 | 0.507 | 0.514 | 0.007 |
| 1987-08-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.69 | 18.28 | 1.41 | 0.511 | 0.511 | 0.000 |
| 1987-08-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.44 | 18.20 | 1.24 | 0.504 | 0.504 | 0.000 |
| 1987-08-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.76 | 18.63 | 1.13 | 0.504 | 0.507 | 0.003 |
| 1987-09-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.61 | 18.43 | 1.18 | 0.494 | 0.503 | 0.009 |
| 1987-09-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.62 | 18.40 | 1.22 | 0.506 | 0.500 | -0.006 |
| 1987-09-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.48 | 18.18 | 1.30 | 0.510 | 0.496 | -0.014 |
| 1987-09-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.34 | 18.13 | 1.21 | 0.508 | 0.494 | -0.014 |
| 1987-09-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.99 | 17.68 | 1.31 | 0.500 | 0.487 | -0.013 |
| 1987-09-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.43 | 17.90 | 1.53 | 0.512 | 0.497 | -0.015 |
| 1987-09-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.72 | 18.30 | 1.42 | 0.519 | 0.500 | -0.019 |
| 1987-09-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.42 | 18.18 | 1.24 | 0.513 | 0.494 | -0.019 |
| 1987-09-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.64 | 18.15 | 1.49 | 0.522 | 0.502 | -0.020 |
| 1987-09-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.66 | 18.53 | 1.13 | 0.525 | 0.496 | -0.029 |
| 1987-09-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.71 | 18.53 | 1.18 | 0.536 | 0.500 | -0.036 |
| 1987-09-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.58 | 18.43 | 1.15 | 0.531 | 0.495 | -0.036 |
| 1987-09-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.58 | 18.30 | 1.28 | 0.528 | 0.490 | -0.038 |
| 1987-09-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.77 | 18.28 | 1.49 | 0.525 | 0.491 | -0.034 |
| 1987-09-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.35 | 18.48 | 0.87 | 0.524 | 0.494 | -0.030 |
| 1987-09-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.66 | 18.48 | 1.18 | 0.526 | 0.499 | -0.027 |
| 1987-09-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.61 | 18.68 | 0.93 | 0.524 | 0.500 | -0.024 |
| 1987-09-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.47 | 18.60 | 0.87 | 0.524 | 0.492 | -0.032 |
| 1987-09-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.48 | 18.65 | 0.83 | 0.521 | 0.494 | -0.027 |
| 1987-09-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.58 | 18.50 | 1.08 | 0.525 | 0.495 | -0.030 |
| 1987-09-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.62 | 18.48 | 1.14 | 0.513 | 0.493 | -0.020 |
| 1987-10-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.62 | 18.50 | 1.12 | 0.517 | 0.497 | -0.020 |
| 1987-10-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.88 | 18.65 | 1.23 | 0.524 | 0.501 | -0.023 |
| 1987-10-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.81 | 18.78 | 1.03 | 0.523 | 0.499 | -0.024 |
| 1987-10-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.33 | 18.60 | 0.73 | 0.513 | 0.492 | -0.021 |
| 1987-10-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.68 | 18.58 | 1.10 | 0.519 | 0.496 | -0.023 |
| 1987-10-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.77 | 18.63 | 1.14 | 0.522 | 0.502 | -0.020 |
| 1987-10-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.67 | 18.60 | 1.07 | 0.529 | 0.505 | -0.024 |
| 1987-10-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.67 | 18.55 | 1.12 | 0.521 | 0.503 | -0.018 |
| 1987-10-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.66 | 18.55 | 1.11 | 0.532 | 0.510 | -0.022 |
| 1987-10-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.79 | 18.68 | 1.11 | 0.539 | 0.510 | -0.029 |
| 1987-10-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.77 | 18.68 | 1.09 | 0.541 | 0.510 | -0.031 |
| 1987-10-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.23 | 19.00 | 1.23 | 0.545 | 0.523 | -0.022 |
| 1987-10-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.79 | 19.10 | 0.69 | 0.539 | 0.514 | -0.025 |
| 1987-10-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.79 | 18.78 | 1.01 | 0.547 | 0.517 | -0.030 |
| 1987-10-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.93 | 18.93 | 1.00 | 0.556 | 0.521 | -0.035 |
| 1987-10-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.19 | 19.13 | 1.06 | 0.566 | 0.526 | -0.040 |
| 1987-10-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.18 | 18.98 | 1.20 | 0.581 | 0.526 | -0.055 |
| 1987-10-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.00 | 18.75 | 1.25 | 0.568 | 0.511 | -0.057 |
| 1987-10-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.15 | 18.80 | 1.35 | 0.574 | 0.519 | -0.055 |
| 1987-10-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 20.10 | 18.85 | 1.25 | 0.554 | 0.515 | -0.039 |
| 1987-10-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.93 | 18.75 | 1.18 | 0.551 | 0.513 | -0.038 |
| 1987-10-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.96 | 18.80 | 1.16 | 0.541 | 0.513 | -0.028 |
| 1987-11-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.64 | 18.63 | 1.01 | 0.531 | 0.503 | -0.028 |
| 1987-11-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.39 | 18.38 | 1.01 | 0.534 | 0.514 | -0.020 |
| 1987-11-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.09 | 17.93 | 1.16 | 0.530 | 0.508 | -0.022 |
| 1987-11-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.02 | 17.85 | 1.17 | 0.528 | 0.505 | -0.023 |
| 1987-11-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.73 | 17.95 | 0.78 | 0.529 | 0.506 | -0.023 |
| 1987-11-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.66 | 17.50 | 1.16 | 0.522 | 0.510 | -0.012 |
| 1987-11-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.98 | 17.75 | 1.23 | 0.529 | 0.511 | -0.018 |
| 1987-11-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.92 | 17.80 | 1.12 | 0.527 | 0.509 | -0.018 |
| 1987-11-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.93 | 17.85 | 1.08 | 0.526 | 0.508 | -0.018 |
| 1987-11-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.89 | 17.80 | 1.09 | 0.519 | 0.505 | -0.014 |
| 1987-11-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.69 | 17.68 | 1.01 | 0.510 | 0.492 | -0.018 |
| 1987-11-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.28 | 17.40 | 0.88 | 0.501 | 0.482 | -0.019 |
| 1987-11-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.62 | 17.18 | 1.44 | 0.508 | 0.489 | -0.019 |
| 1987-11-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.55 | 17.48 | 1.07 | 0.503 | 0.485 | -0.018 |
| 1987-11-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.87 | 17.60 | 1.27 | 0.506 | 0.489 | -0.017 |
| 1987-11-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.31 | 17.90 | 1.41 | 0.506 | 0.484 | -0.022 |
| 1987-11-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.73 | 17.83 | 0.90 | 0.507 | 0.485 | -0.022 |
| 1987-11-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.63 | 17.68 | 0.95 | 0.503 | 0.486 | -0.017 |
| 1987-11-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.63 | 17.78 | 0.85 | 0.503 | 0.486 | -0.017 |
| 1987-11-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.52 | 17.70 | 0.82 | 0.496 | 0.477 | -0.019 |
| 1987-12-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.44 | 17.65 | 0.79 | 0.490 | 0.473 | -0.017 |
| 1987-12-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.59 | 17.70 | 0.89 | 0.492 | 0.467 | -0.025 |
| 1987-12-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.87 | 17.93 | 0.94 | 0.493 | 0.469 | -0.024 |
| 1987-12-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.68 | 18.00 | 0.68 | 0.488 | 0.465 | -0.023 |
| 1987-12-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.30 | 17.78 | 0.52 | 0.480 | 0.453 | -0.027 |
| 1987-12-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.06 | 17.58 | 0.48 | 0.470 | 0.447 | -0.023 |
| 1987-12-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.53 | 17.43 | 1.10 | 0.474 | 0.451 | -0.023 |
| 1987-12-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.51 | 17.55 | 0.96 | 0.474 | 0.450 | -0.024 |
| 1987-12-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.31 | 17.73 | 0.58 | 0.474 | 0.452 | -0.022 |
| 1987-12-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.47 | 16.80 | 0.67 | 0.455 | 0.434 | -0.021 |
| 1987-12-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.75 | 16.20 | 0.55 | 0.440 | 0.417 | -0.023 |
| 1987-12-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.97 | 15.93 | 0.04 | 0.423 | 0.403 | -0.020 |
| 1987-12-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.97 | 15.03 | 0.94 | 0.423 | 0.401 | -0.022 |
| 1987-12-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.57 | 15.60 | -0.03 | 0.419 | 0.399 | -0.020 |
| 1987-12-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.12 | 15.40 | -0.28 | 0.422 | 0.402 | -0.020 |
| 1987-12-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.60 | 16.70 | -0.10 | 0.449 | 0.425 | -0.024 |
| 1987-12-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.64 | 17.25 | -0.61 | 0.442 | 0.417 | -0.025 |
| 1987-12-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.54 | 17.10 | -0.56 | 0.442 | 0.416 | -0.026 |
| 1987-12-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.46 | 17.00 | -0.54 | 0.433 | 0.415 | -0.018 |
| 1987-12-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.95 | 17.38 | -0.43 | 0.441 | 0.421 | -0.020 |
| 1987-12-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.97 | 17.85 | -0.88 | 0.439 | 0.419 | -0.020 |
| 1987-12-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.74 | 17.60 | -0.86 | 0.439 | 0.419 | -0.020 |
| 1988-01-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.77 | 17.95 | -0.18 | 0.464 | 0.443 | -0.021 |
| 1988-01-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.89 | 17.08 | 0.81 | 0.461 | 0.440 | -0.021 |
| 1988-01-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.73 | 17.90 | -0.17 | 0.464 | 0.443 | -0.021 |
| 1988-01-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.33 | 16.88 | 0.45 | 0.454 | 0.433 | -0.021 |
| 1988-01-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.63 | 16.65 | -0.02 | 0.439 | 0.421 | -0.018 |
| 1988-01-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.76 | 15.95 | 0.81 | 0.434 | 0.416 | -0.018 |
| 1988-01-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.56 | 16.38 | 0.18 | 0.434 | 0.416 | -0.018 |
| 1988-01-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.10 | 16.55 | 0.55 | 0.449 | 0.431 | -0.018 |
| 1988-01-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.92 | 16.65 | 0.27 | 0.447 | 0.427 | -0.020 |
| 1988-01-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.28 | 16.83 | 0.45 | 0.457 | 0.438 | -0.019 |
| 1988-01-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.30 | 17.10 | 0.20 | 0.457 | 0.437 | -0.020 |
| 1988-01-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.20 | 16.83 | 0.37 | 0.451 | 0.436 | -0.015 |
| 1988-01-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.21 | 17.08 | 0.13 | 0.444 | 0.429 | -0.015 |
| 1988-01-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.99 | 16.70 | 0.29 | 0.439 | 0.424 | -0.015 |
| 1988-01-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.11 | 16.45 | 0.66 | 0.445 | 0.437 | -0.008 |
| 1988-01-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.64 | 16.13 | 0.51 | 0.437 | 0.432 | -0.005 |
| 1988-01-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.94 | 16.10 | 0.84 | 0.448 | 0.443 | -0.005 |
| 1988-01-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.97 | 16.28 | 0.69 | 0.448 | 0.443 | -0.005 |
| 1988-02-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.83 | 16.10 | 0.73 | 0.451 | 0.450 | -0.001 |
| 1988-02-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.92 | 16.18 | 0.74 | 0.466 | 0.453 | -0.013 |
| 1988-02-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.12 | 16.15 | 0.97 | 0.475 | 0.460 | -0.015 |
| 1988-02-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.17 | 16.18 | 0.99 | 0.477 | 0.460 | -0.017 |
| 1988-02-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.34 | 16.10 | 1.24 | 0.474 | 0.464 | -0.010 |
| 1988-02-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.70 | 16.50 | 1.20 | 0.480 | 0.461 | -0.019 |
| 1988-02-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.38 | 16.40 | 0.98 | 0.463 | 0.453 | -0.010 |
| 1988-02-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.17 | 16.10 | 1.07 | 0.457 | 0.450 | -0.007 |
| 1988-02-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.84 | 15.75 | 1.09 | 0.455 | 0.447 | -0.008 |
| 1988-02-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.80 | 15.63 | 1.17 | 0.461 | 0.451 | -0.010 |
| 1988-02-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.62 | 15.85 | 0.77 | 0.460 | 0.450 | -0.010 |
| 1988-02-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.50 | 15.48 | 1.02 | 0.450 | 0.442 | -0.008 |
| 1988-02-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.73 | 15.55 | 1.18 | 0.458 | 0.458 | 0.000 |
| 1988-02-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.64 | 15.38 | 1.26 | 0.453 | 0.448 | -0.005 |
| 1988-02-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.80 | 15.58 | 1.22 | 0.466 | 0.456 | -0.010 |
| 1988-02-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.58 | 15.35 | 1.23 | 0.458 | 0.450 | -0.008 |
| 1988-02-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.86 | 14.85 | 1.01 | 0.448 | 0.441 | -0.007 |
| 1988-02-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.77 | 14.65 | 1.12 | 0.448 | 0.440 | -0.008 |
| 1988-02-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.98 | 14.73 | 1.25 | 0.452 | 0.445 | -0.007 |
| 1988-03-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.57 | 14.18 | 1.39 | 0.448 | 0.435 | -0.013 |
| 1988-03-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.69 | 13.80 | 1.89 | 0.444 | 0.433 | -0.011 |
| 1988-03-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.35 | 14.00 | 1.35 | 0.441 | 0.428 | -0.013 |
| 1988-03-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.63 | 14.00 | 1.63 | 0.441 | 0.429 | -0.012 |
| 1988-03-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.35 | 13.90 | 1.45 | 0.427 | 0.426 | -0.001 |
| 1988-03-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.58 | 13.80 | 1.78 | 0.426 | 0.439 | 0.013 |
| 1988-03-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.52 | 13.98 | 1.54 | 0.428 | 0.430 | 0.002 |
| 1988-03-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.04 | 14.48 | 1.56 | 0.442 | 0.443 | 0.001 |
| 1988-03-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.20 | 14.88 | 1.32 | 0.447 | 0.447 | 0.000 |
| 1988-03-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.57 | 14.28 | 1.29 | 0.434 | 0.435 | 0.001 |
| 1988-03-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.81 | 14.30 | 1.51 | 0.446 | 0.450 | 0.004 |
| 1988-03-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.03 | 14.45 | 1.58 | 0.445 | 0.450 | 0.005 |
| 1988-03-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.39 | 14.43 | 1.96 | 0.449 | 0.458 | 0.009 |
| 1988-03-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.61 | 14.93 | 1.68 | 0.451 | 0.463 | 0.012 |
| 1988-03-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.52 | 15.38 | 1.14 | 0.452 | 0.465 | 0.013 |
| 1988-03-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.02 | 15.03 | 0.99 | 0.456 | 0.467 | 0.011 |
| 1988-03-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.58 | 15.40 | 1.18 | 0.466 | 0.479 | 0.013 |
| 1988-03-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.73 | 15.65 | 1.08 | 0.467 | 0.480 | 0.013 |
| 1988-03-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.07 | 15.45 | 1.62 | 0.473 | 0.486 | 0.013 |
| 1988-03-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.05 | 15.55 | 1.50 | 0.473 | 0.484 | 0.011 |
| 1988-03-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.08 | 15.60 | 1.48 | 0.483 | 0.493 | 0.010 |
| 1988-03-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.06 | 15.70 | 1.36 | 0.481 | 0.490 | 0.009 |
| 1988-03-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.09 | 15.65 | 1.44 | 0.480 | 0.484 | 0.004 |
| 1988-04-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.72 | 15.50 | 1.22 | 0.473 | 0.476 | 0.003 |
| 1988-04-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.80 | 15.38 | 1.42 | 0.473 | 0.478 | 0.005 |
| 1988-04-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.05 | 15.53 | 1.52 | 0.480 | 0.487 | 0.007 |
| 1988-04-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.87 | 15.55 | 1.32 | 0.484 | 0.491 | 0.007 |
| 1988-04-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.87 | 16.20 | 1.67 | 0.506 | 0.511 | 0.005 |
| 1988-04-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.06 | 16.48 | 1.58 | 0.519 | 0.517 | -0.002 |
| 1988-04-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.12 | 16.55 | 1.57 | 0.523 | 0.525 | 0.002 |
| 1988-04-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.40 | 16.65 | 1.75 | 0.520 | 0.525 | 0.005 |
| 1988-04-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.32 | 16.85 | 1.47 | 0.522 | 0.527 | 0.005 |
| 1988-04-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.50 | 17.45 | 1.05 | 0.529 | 0.531 | 0.002 |
| 1988-04-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.92 | 17.05 | 0.87 | 0.513 | 0.520 | 0.007 |
| 1988-04-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.93 | 16.78 | 1.15 | 0.508 | 0.515 | 0.007 |
| 1988-04-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.34 | 17.00 | 1.34 | 0.519 | 0.524 | 0.005 |
| 1988-04-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.13 | 17.15 | 0.98 | 0.517 | 0.523 | 0.006 |
| 1988-04-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.36 | 17.13 | 1.23 | 0.511 | 0.520 | 0.009 |
| 1988-04-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.54 | 17.18 | 1.36 | 0.523 | 0.523 | 0.000 |
| 1988-04-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.32 | 17.40 | 0.92 | 0.516 | 0.521 | 0.005 |
| 1988-04-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.91 | 16.88 | 1.03 | 0.512 | 0.512 | 0.000 |
| 1988-04-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.10 | 16.60 | 1.50 | 0.511 | 0.511 | 0.000 |
| 1988-05-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.12 | 15.95 | 1.17 | 0.492 | 0.492 | 0.000 |
| 1988-05-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.30 | 16.08 | 1.22 | 0.503 | 0.499 | -0.004 |
| 1988-05-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.23 | 16.15 | 1.08 | 0.497 | 0.486 | -0.011 |
| 1988-05-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.41 | 16.15 | 1.26 | 0.510 | 0.510 | 0.000 |
| 1988-05-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.63 | 16.45 | 1.18 | 0.519 | 0.514 | -0.005 |
| 1988-05-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.56 | 16.50 | 1.06 | 0.520 | 0.516 | -0.004 |
| 1988-05-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.50 | 16.38 | 1.12 | 0.526 | 0.520 | -0.006 |
| 1988-05-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.48 | 16.48 | 1.00 | 0.529 | 0.521 | -0.008 |
| 1988-05-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.49 | 16.40 | 1.09 | 0.529 | 0.515 | -0.014 |
| 1988-05-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.53 | 16.50 | 1.03 | 0.530 | 0.520 | -0.010 |
| 1988-05-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.70 | 16.60 | 1.10 | 0.534 | 0.521 | -0.013 |
| 1988-05-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.72 | 16.60 | 1.12 | 0.531 | 0.514 | -0.017 |
| 1988-05-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.39 | 16.40 | 0.99 | 0.530 | 0.511 | -0.019 |
| 1988-05-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.43 | 16.25 | 1.18 | 0.531 | 0.511 | -0.020 |
| 1988-05-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.41 | 16.45 | 0.96 | 0.530 | 0.514 | -0.016 |
| 1988-05-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.01 | 16.23 | 0.78 | 0.520 | 0.501 | -0.019 |
| 1988-05-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.04 | 16.30 | 0.74 | 0.521 | 0.502 | -0.019 |
| 1988-05-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.39 | 16.18 | 1.21 | 0.523 | 0.504 | -0.019 |
| 1988-05-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.54 | 16.18 | 1.36 | 0.530 | 0.507 | -0.023 |
| 1988-05-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.45 | 16.25 | 1.20 | 0.532 | 0.511 | -0.021 |
| 1988-05-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.54 | 16.20 | 1.34 | 0.534 | 0.519 | -0.015 |
| 1988-06-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.60 | 16.33 | 1.27 | 0.529 | 0.506 | -0.023 |
| 1988-06-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.67 | 16.33 | 1.34 | 0.526 | 0.504 | -0.022 |
| 1988-06-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.51 | 16.45 | 1.06 | 0.516 | 0.495 | -0.021 |
| 1988-06-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.28 | 16.25 | 1.03 | 0.509 | 0.484 | -0.025 |
| 1988-06-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.32 | 16.23 | 1.09 | 0.511 | 0.486 | -0.025 |
| 1988-06-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.35 | 16.28 | 1.07 | 0.515 | 0.490 | -0.025 |
| 1988-06-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.09 | 16.30 | 0.79 | 0.513 | 0.489 | -0.024 |
| 1988-06-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.70 | 15.85 | 0.85 | 0.508 | 0.483 | -0.025 |
| 1988-06-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.43 | 15.53 | 0.90 | 0.501 | 0.479 | -0.022 |
| 1988-06-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.85 | 15.85 | 1.00 | 0.513 | 0.494 | -0.019 |
| 1988-06-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.56 | 15.70 | 0.86 | 0.506 | 0.491 | -0.015 |
| 1988-06-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.62 | 15.43 | 1.19 | 0.516 | 0.496 | -0.020 |
| 1988-06-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.43 | 15.48 | 0.95 | 0.514 | 0.494 | -0.020 |
| 1988-06-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.02 | 15.00 | 1.02 | 0.509 | 0.489 | -0.020 |
| 1988-06-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.82 | 15.00 | 0.82 | 0.512 | 0.494 | -0.018 |
| 1988-06-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.03 | 15.13 | 0.90 | 0.520 | 0.499 | -0.021 |
| 1988-06-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.86 | 15.18 | 0.68 | 0.526 | 0.505 | -0.021 |
| 1988-06-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.03 | 15.15 | 0.88 | 0.521 | 0.508 | -0.013 |
| 1988-06-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.86 | 14.93 | 0.93 | 0.523 | 0.509 | -0.014 |
| 1988-06-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.01 | 14.83 | 1.18 | 0.537 | 0.524 | -0.013 |
| 1988-06-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.37 | 14.55 | 0.82 | 0.535 | 0.536 | 0.001 |
| 1988-06-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.20 | 14.18 | 1.02 | 0.529 | 0.499 | -0.030 |
| 1988-07-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.92 | 13.95 | 0.97 | 0.524 | 0.514 | -0.010 |
| 1988-07-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.11 | 13.98 | 1.13 | 0.539 | 0.522 | -0.017 |
| 1988-07-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.44 | 14.50 | 0.94 | 0.554 | 0.529 | -0.025 |
| 1988-07-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.83 | 15.50 | 0.33 | 0.582 | 0.570 | -0.012 |
| 1988-07-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.42 | 15.05 | 0.37 | 0.591 | 0.570 | -0.021 |
| 1988-07-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.56 | 14.63 | -0.07 | 0.579 | 0.573 | -0.006 |
| 1988-07-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.61 | 14.00 | 0.61 | 0.594 | 0.594 | 0.000 |
| 1988-07-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.35 | 14.10 | 0.25 | 0.584 | 0.584 | 0.000 |
| 1988-07-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.84 | 14.10 | 0.74 | 0.564 | 0.594 | 0.030 |
| 1988-07-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.85 | 14.25 | 0.60 | 0.555 | 0.581 | 0.026 |
| 1988-07-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.84 | 15.00 | 0.84 | 0.567 | 0.572 | 0.005 |
| 1988-07-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.16 | 14.93 | 0.23 | 0.557 | 0.557 | 0.000 |
| 1988-07-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.76 | 15.48 | 0.28 | 0.560 | 0.560 | 0.000 |
| 1988-07-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.28 | 15.63 | 0.65 | 0.571 | 0.567 | -0.004 |
| 1988-07-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.27 | 15.83 | 0.44 | 0.552 | 0.566 | 0.014 |
| 1988-07-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.09 | 15.80 | 0.29 | 0.544 | 0.555 | 0.011 |
| 1988-07-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.99 | 15.38 | 0.61 | 0.523 | 0.536 | 0.013 |
| 1988-07-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.18 | 15.45 | 0.73 | 0.512 | 0.536 | 0.024 |
| 1988-07-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.08 | 15.70 | 0.38 | 0.519 | 0.549 | 0.030 |
| 1988-07-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.37 | 15.75 | 0.62 | 0.516 | 0.521 | 0.005 |
| 1988-08-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.07 | 15.60 | 0.47 | 0.521 | 0.515 | -0.006 |
| 1988-08-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.57 | 15.35 | 0.22 | 0.510 | 0.505 | -0.005 |
| 1988-08-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.20 | 15.00 | 0.20 | 0.481 | 0.484 | 0.003 |
| 1988-08-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.12 | 14.50 | 0.62 | 0.476 | 0.482 | 0.006 |
| 1988-08-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.31 | 14.85 | 0.46 | 0.479 | 0.486 | 0.007 |
| 1988-08-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.84 | 15.48 | 0.36 | 0.476 | 0.493 | 0.017 |
| 1988-08-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.56 | 15.40 | 0.16 | 0.478 | 0.478 | 0.000 |
| 1988-08-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.65 | 15.10 | 0.55 | 0.477 | 0.479 | 0.002 |
| 1988-08-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.75 | 15.13 | 0.62 | 0.484 | 0.484 | 0.000 |
| 1988-08-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.54 | 14.98 | 0.56 | 0.467 | 0.480 | 0.013 |
| 1988-08-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.59 | 14.80 | 0.79 | 0.478 | 0.487 | 0.009 |
| 1988-08-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.51 | 14.85 | 0.66 | 0.475 | 0.485 | 0.010 |
| 1988-08-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.46 | 14.75 | 0.71 | 0.480 | 0.488 | 0.008 |
| 1988-08-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.59 | 14.78 | 0.81 | 0.486 | 0.494 | 0.008 |
| 1988-08-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.77 | 14.85 | 0.92 | 0.490 | 0.497 | 0.007 |
| 1988-08-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.75 | 15.03 | 0.72 | 0.484 | 0.485 | 0.001 |
| 1988-08-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.71 | 14.80 | 0.91 | 0.482 | 0.480 | -0.002 |
| 1988-08-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.55 | 14.85 | 0.70 | 0.484 | 0.474 | -0.010 |
| 1988-08-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.33 | 14.63 | 0.70 | 0.473 | 0.462 | -0.011 |
| 1988-08-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.35 | 14.50 | 0.85 | 0.476 | 0.465 | -0.011 |
| 1988-08-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.24 | 14.48 | 0.76 | 0.481 | 0.462 | -0.019 |
| 1988-08-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.39 | 14.45 | 0.94 | 0.491 | 0.466 | -0.025 |
| 1988-08-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.19 | 14.40 | 0.79 | 0.470 | 0.452 | -0.018 |
| 1988-09-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.05 | 14.15 | 0.90 | 0.476 | 0.456 | -0.020 |
| 1988-09-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.79 | 14.00 | 0.79 | 0.469 | 0.449 | -0.020 |
| 1988-09-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.25 | 13.35 | 0.90 | 0.449 | 0.449 | 0.000 |
| 1988-09-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.29 | 13.18 | 1.11 | 0.449 | 0.432 | -0.017 |
| 1988-09-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.51 | 13.30 | 1.21 | 0.450 | 0.439 | -0.011 |
| 1988-09-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.14 | 13.25 | 0.89 | 0.441 | 0.429 | -0.012 |
| 1988-09-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.48 | 12.70 | 1.78 | 0.446 | 0.435 | -0.011 |
| 1988-09-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.55 | 13.40 | 1.15 | 0.457 | 0.474 | 0.017 |
| 1988-09-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.38 | 13.90 | 1.48 | 0.489 | 0.521 | 0.032 |
| 1988-09-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.86 | 13.50 | 1.36 | 0.475 | 0.490 | 0.015 |
| 1988-09-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.50 | 13.23 | 1.27 | 0.459 | 0.469 | 0.010 |
| 1988-09-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.72 | 12.85 | 1.87 | 0.460 | 0.464 | 0.004 |
| 1988-09-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.08 | 13.15 | 1.93 | 0.469 | 0.473 | 0.004 |
| 1988-09-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.25 | 13.20 | 2.05 | 0.475 | 0.486 | 0.011 |
| 1988-09-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.26 | 13.20 | 1.06 | 0.464 | 0.484 | 0.020 |
| 1988-09-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.16 | 13.10 | 1.06 | 0.466 | 0.484 | 0.018 |
| 1988-09-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.22 | 12.58 | 1.64 | 0.470 | 0.494 | 0.024 |
| 1988-09-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.07 | 12.75 | 1.32 | 0.473 | 0.496 | 0.023 |
| 1988-09-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.91 | 12.50 | 1.41 | 0.480 | 0.489 | 0.009 |
| 1988-09-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.33 | 11.93 | 1.40 | 0.494 | 0.481 | -0.013 |
| 1988-10-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.03 | 11.60 | 1.43 | 0.475 | 0.471 | -0.004 |
| 1988-10-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.03 | 11.65 | 1.38 | 0.465 | 0.442 | -0.023 |
| 1988-10-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 12.58 | 11.20 | 1.38 | 0.444 | 0.424 | -0.020 |
| 1988-10-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 12.62 | 11.30 | 1.32 | 0.444 | 0.426 | -0.018 |
| 1988-10-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 12.99 | 11.35 | 1.64 | 0.450 | 0.433 | -0.017 |
| 1988-10-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.59 | 12.20 | 1.39 | 0.468 | 0.445 | -0.023 |
| 1988-10-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.63 | 12.35 | 1.28 | 0.467 | 0.434 | -0.033 |
| 1988-10-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.02 | 12.45 | 1.57 | 0.475 | 0.458 | -0.017 |
| 1988-10-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.26 | 12.55 | 1.71 | 0.490 | 0.470 | -0.020 |
| 1988-10-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.90 | 13.20 | 1.70 | 0.503 | 0.481 | -0.022 |
| 1988-10-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.16 | 13.55 | 1.61 | 0.509 | 0.486 | -0.023 |
| 1988-10-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.63 | 12.90 | 1.73 | 0.510 | 0.493 | -0.017 |
| 1988-10-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.33 | 13.35 | 1.98 | 0.536 | 0.521 | -0.015 |
| 1988-10-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.44 | 13.50 | 0.94 | 0.542 | 0.532 | -0.010 |
| 1988-10-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.22 | 13.48 | 0.74 | 0.581 | 0.559 | -0.022 |
| 1988-10-24 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 12.94 | 12.20 | 0.74 | 0.569 | 0.539 | -0.030 |
| 1988-10-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.36 | 12.08 | 1.28 | 0.581 | 0.564 | -0.017 |
| 1988-10-26 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.45 | 12.08 | 1.37 | 0.566 | 0.583 | 0.017 |
| 1988-10-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.67 | 12.33 | 1.34 | 0.556 | 0.591 | 0.035 |
| 1988-10-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.79 | 12.60 | 1.19 | 0.561 | 0.599 | 0.038 |
| 1988-10-31 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.54 | 12.60 | 0.94 | 0.544 | 0.512 | -0.032 |
| 1988-11-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.52 | 12.18 | 1.34 | 0.507 | 0.472 | -0.035 |
| 1988-11-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.78 | 12.35 | 1.43 | 0.506 | 0.489 | -0.017 |
| 1988-11-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.89 | 12.50 | 1.39 | 0.531 | 0.499 | -0.032 |
| 1988-11-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.04 | 12.75 | 1.29 | 0.545 | 0.512 | -0.033 |
| 1988-11-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.08 | 12.75 | 1.33 | 0.554 | 0.506 | -0.048 |
| 1988-11-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.70 | 12.60 | 1.10 | 0.547 | 0.494 | -0.053 |
| 1988-11-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.88 | 12.70 | 1.18 | 0.567 | 0.501 | -0.066 |
| 1988-11-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.99 | 13.03 | 0.96 | 0.563 | 0.503 | -0.060 |
| 1988-11-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.99 | 13.03 | 0.96 | 0.540 | 0.494 | -0.046 |
| 1988-11-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.25 | 13.00 | 1.25 | 0.555 | 0.508 | -0.047 |
| 1988-11-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.03 | 13.00 | 1.03 | 0.544 | 0.494 | -0.050 |
| 1988-11-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.68 | 12.70 | 0.98 | 0.531 | 0.486 | -0.045 |
| 1988-11-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.30 | 12.05 | 1.25 | 0.510 | 0.478 | -0.032 |
| 1988-11-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.47 | 12.08 | 1.39 | 0.505 | 0.458 | -0.047 |
| 1988-11-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 13.73 | 12.13 | 1.60 | 0.487 | 0.437 | -0.050 |
| 1988-11-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.78 | 13.35 | 1.43 | 0.485 | 0.438 | -0.047 |
| 1988-11-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.11 | 13.33 | 0.78 | 0.484 | 0.431 | -0.053 |
| 1988-11-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.43 | 14.70 | 0.73 | 0.504 | 0.451 | -0.053 |
| 1988-11-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 14.93 | 14.73 | 0.20 | 0.491 | 0.436 | -0.055 |
| 1988-11-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.00 | 14.25 | 0.75 | 0.478 | 0.434 | -0.044 |
| 1988-11-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.42 | 14.35 | 1.07 | 0.499 | 0.449 | -0.050 |
| 1988-12-01 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.63 | 14.93 | 0.70 | 0.499 | 0.456 | -0.043 |
| 1988-12-02 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.69 | 14.80 | 0.89 | 0.495 | 0.452 | -0.043 |
| 1988-12-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.36 | 14.73 | 0.63 | 0.474 | 0.439 | -0.035 |
| 1988-12-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.51 | 14.40 | 1.11 | 0.464 | 0.429 | -0.035 |
| 1988-12-07 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.80 | 14.70 | 1.10 | 0.464 | 0.429 | -0.035 |
| 1988-12-08 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.48 | 15.05 | 0.43 | 0.459 | 0.434 | -0.025 |
| 1988-12-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.90 | 14.90 | 1.00 | 0.471 | 0.439 | -0.032 |
| 1988-12-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.08 | 15.20 | 0.88 | 0.469 | 0.436 | -0.033 |
| 1988-12-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.93 | 15.18 | 0.75 | 0.450 | 0.423 | -0.027 |
| 1988-12-14 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.33 | 15.35 | 0.98 | 0.461 | 0.429 | -0.032 |
| 1988-12-15 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.39 | 15.58 | 0.81 | 0.450 | 0.416 | -0.034 |
| 1988-12-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.81 | 15.60 | 1.21 | 0.463 | 0.430 | -0.033 |
| 1988-12-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.24 | 15.30 | 0.94 | 0.465 | 0.430 | -0.035 |
| 1988-12-20 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.68 | 15.28 | 2.40 | 0.471 | 0.436 | -0.035 |
| 1988-12-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.27 | 15.33 | 1.94 | 0.469 | 0.431 | -0.038 |
| 1988-12-22 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.36 | 15.25 | 2.11 | 0.476 | 0.439 | -0.037 |
| 1988-12-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.63 | 15.38 | 1.25 | 0.480 | 0.443 | -0.037 |
| 1988-12-27 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.98 | 16.25 | 0.73 | 0.486 | 0.455 | -0.031 |
| 1988-12-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.03 | 16.10 | 0.93 | 0.483 | 0.452 | -0.031 |
| 1988-12-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.81 | 15.90 | 0.91 | 0.479 | 0.444 | -0.035 |
| 1988-12-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.12 | 16.23 | 0.89 | 0.488 | 0.454 | -0.034 |
| 1989-01-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.38 | 16.40 | 0.98 | 0.484 | 0.456 | -0.028 |
| 1989-01-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.99 | 16.53 | 0.46 | 0.480 | 0.457 | -0.023 |
| 1989-01-05 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.45 | 16.58 | 0.87 | 0.483 | 0.464 | -0.019 |
| 1989-01-06 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.56 | 16.85 | 0.71 | 0.487 | 0.472 | -0.015 |
| 1989-01-09 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.74 | 17.00 | 0.74 | 0.490 | 0.475 | -0.015 |
| 1989-01-10 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.80 | 16.75 | 1.05 | 0.495 | 0.483 | -0.012 |
| 1989-01-11 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.16 | 16.90 | 1.26 | 0.496 | 0.486 | -0.010 |
| 1989-01-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.11 | 16.85 | 1.26 | 0.501 | 0.492 | -0.009 |
| 1989-01-13 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.49 | 17.40 | 1.09 | 0.506 | 0.496 | -0.010 |
| 1989-01-16 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.88 | 17.50 | 1.38 | 0.510 | 0.506 | -0.004 |
| 1989-01-17 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.03 | 17.78 | 1.25 | 0.510 | 0.507 | -0.003 |
| 1989-01-18 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.20 | 17.95 | 1.25 | 0.526 | 0.521 | -0.005 |
| 1989-01-19 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.28 | 18.10 | 1.18 | 0.527 | 0.520 | -0.007 |
| 1989-01-20 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.85 | 18.15 | 0.70 | 0.523 | 0.516 | -0.007 |
| 1989-01-23 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.66 | 16.98 | 0.68 | 0.500 | 0.494 | -0.006 |
| 1989-01-24 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.96 | 17.05 | 0.91 | 0.509 | 0.504 | -0.005 |
| 1989-01-25 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.23 | 17.70 | 0.53 | 0.525 | 0.515 | -0.010 |
| 1989-01-26 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.68 | 17.73 | -0.05 | 0.504 | 0.499 | -0.005 |
| 1989-01-27 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.74 | 17.18 | 0.56 | 0.494 | 0.496 | 0.002 |
| 1989-01-30 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.32 | 16.85 | 0.47 | 0.490 | 0.489 | -0.001 |
| 1989-01-31 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.00 | 16.38 | 0.62 | 0.476 | 0.481 | 0.005 |
| 1989-02-01 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.50 | 16.40 | 1.10 | 0.495 | 0.498 | 0.003 |
| 1989-02-02 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.72 | 16.95 | 0.77 | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.000 |
| 1989-02-03 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.51 | 16.75 | 0.76 | 0.490 | 0.490 | 0.000 |
| 1989-02-06 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.38 | 16.50 | 0.88 | 0.481 | 0.486 | 0.005 |
| 1989-02-07 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.55 | 16.60 | 0.95 | 0.480 | 0.489 | 0.009 |
| 1989-02-08 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.49 | 16.75 | 0.74 | 0.484 | 0.487 | 0.003 |
| 1989-02-09 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.42 | 16.58 | 0.84 | 0.469 | 0.482 | 0.013 |
| 1989-02-10 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.11 | 16.40 | 0.71 | 0.461 | 0.475 | 0.014 |
| 1989-02-13 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.61 | 16.50 | 1.11 | 0.468 | 0.480 | 0.012 |
| 1989-02-14 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.60 | 16.83 | 0.77 | 0.467 | 0.480 | 0.013 |
| 1989-02-15 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.23 | 16.75 | 1.48 | 0.471 | 0.489 | 0.018 |
| 1989-02-16 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.35 | 17.15 | 1.20 | 0.479 | 0.489 | 0.010 |
| 1989-02-17 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.60 | 17.15 | 1.45 | 0.476 | 0.486 | 0.010 |
| 1989-02-21 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.64 | 17.20 | 1.44 | 0.467 | 0.476 | 0.009 |
| 1989-02-22 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.50 | 16.95 | 1.55 | 0.479 | 0.484 | 0.005 |
| 1989-02-23 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.49 | 17.10 | 1.39 | 0.494 | 0.491 | -0.003 |
| 1989-02-24 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.06 | 17.05 | 1.01 | 0.497 | 0.497 | 0.000 |
| 1989-02-27 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.16 | 17.55 | 0.61 | 0.505 | 0.496 | -0.009 |
| 1989-02-28 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.21 | 17.23 | 0.98 | 0.508 | 0.506 | -0.002 |
| 1989-03-01 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.30 | 17.25 | 1.05 | 0.504 | 0.506 | 0.002 |
| 1989-03-02 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.68 | 17.45 | 1.23 | 0.514 | 0.514 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-03 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.67 | 17.73 | 0.94 | 0.506 | 0.511 | 0.005 |
| 1989-03-06 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.73 | 17.73 | 1.00 | 0.507 | 0.507 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-07 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.12 | 17.55 | 0.57 | 0.502 | 0.502 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-08 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.57 | 17.55 | 1.02 | 0.509 | 0.510 | 0.001 |
| 1989-03-09 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.53 | 17.80 | 0.73 | 0.510 | 0.509 | -0.001 |
| 1989-03-10 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.53 | 17.63 | 0.90 | 0.511 | 0.511 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-13 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.05 | 18.10 | 0.95 | 0.524 | 0.524 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-14 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.47 | 18.63 | 0.84 | 0.533 | 0.532 | -0.001 |
| 1989-03-15 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.84 | 19.08 | 0.76 | 0.551 | 0.551 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-16 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.86 | 18.95 | 0.91 | 0.550 | 0.537 | -0.013 |
| 1989-03-17 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.34 | 19.30 | 1.04 | 0.551 | 0.537 | -0.014 |
| 1989-03-20 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.53 | 19.18 | 0.35 | 0.534 | 0.536 | 0.002 |
| 1989-03-21 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.08 | 19.63 | 0.45 | 0.547 | 0.547 | 0.000 |
| 1989-03-22 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.21 | 19.60 | 0.61 | 0.561 | 0.551 | -0.010 |
| 1989-03-23 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.16 | 19.93 | 0.23 | 0.571 | 0.561 | -0.010 |
| 1989-03-28 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.93 | 19.73 | 0.20 | 0.581 | 0.576 | -0.005 |
| 1989-03-29 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.20 | 19.45 | 0.75 | 0.594 | 0.618 | 0.024 |
| 1989-03-30 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.03 | 20.00 | 1.03 | 0.631 | 0.651 | 0.020 |
| 1989-03-31 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.27 | 20.45 | -0.18 | 0.654 | 0.666 | 0.012 |
| 1989-04-03 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.03 | 19.65 | 0.38 | 0.664 | 0.675 | 0.011 |
| 1989-04-04 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.59 | 19.90 | 0.69 | 0.694 | 0.696 | 0.002 |
| 1989-04-05 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.07 | 19.75 | 0.32 | 0.651 | 0.659 | 0.008 |
| 1989-04-06 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.85 | 19.08 | 0.77 | 0.636 | 0.636 | 0.000 |
| 1989-04-07 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.03 | 19.40 | 0.63 | 0.641 | 0.646 | 0.005 |
| 1989-04-10 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.65 | 19.60 | 1.05 | 0.672 | 0.660 | -0.012 |
| 1989-04-11 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.56 | 19.95 | 0.61 | 0.694 | 0.686 | -0.008 |
| 1989-04-12 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.66 | 19.85 | 0.81 | 0.695 | 0.675 | -0.020 |
| 1989-04-13 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.26 | 19.95 | 0.31 | 0.682 | 0.647 | -0.035 |
| 1989-04-14 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.68 | 19.63 | 1.05 | 0.694 | 0.654 | -0.040 |
| 1989-04-17 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.23 | 19.88 | 1.35 | 0.715 | 0.680 | -0.035 |
| 1989-04-18 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.74 | 20.20 | 1.54 | 0.735 | 0.700 | -0.035 |
| 1989-04-19 | Republican | George HW Bush | 22.66 | 21.50 | 1.16 | 0.728 | 0.703 | -0.025 |
| 1989-04-20 | Republican | George HW Bush | 24.62 | 22.25 | 2.37 | 0.732 | 0.708 | -0.024 |
| 1989-04-21 | Republican | George HW Bush | 23.38 | 21.60 | 1.78 | 0.731 | 0.708 | -0.023 |
| 1989-04-24 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.64 | 21.20 | -0.56 | 0.705 | 0.688 | -0.017 |
| 1989-04-25 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.32 | 21.15 | 0.17 | 0.730 | 0.725 | -0.005 |
| 1989-04-26 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.20 | 21.05 | 0.15 | 0.755 | 0.745 | -0.010 |
| 1989-04-27 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.83 | 20.65 | 0.18 | 0.739 | 0.739 | 0.000 |
| 1989-04-28 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.38 | 20.15 | 0.23 | 0.701 | 0.706 | 0.005 |
| 1989-05-02 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.73 | 19.15 | 0.58 | 0.744 | 0.716 | -0.028 |
| 1989-05-03 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.13 | 18.88 | 1.25 | 0.728 | 0.705 | -0.023 |
| 1989-05-04 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.57 | 19.70 | 0.87 | 0.720 | 0.710 | -0.010 |
| 1989-05-05 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.08 | 19.40 | 0.68 | 0.695 | 0.684 | -0.011 |
| 1989-05-08 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.41 | 18.80 | 0.61 | 0.669 | 0.661 | -0.008 |
| 1989-05-09 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.54 | 19.03 | 0.51 | 0.669 | 0.666 | -0.003 |
| 1989-05-10 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.56 | 18.88 | 0.68 | 0.665 | 0.666 | 0.001 |
| 1989-05-11 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.13 | 19.30 | 0.83 | 0.687 | 0.679 | -0.008 |
| 1989-05-12 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.12 | 19.20 | 0.92 | 0.684 | 0.679 | -0.005 |
| 1989-05-15 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.53 | 19.20 | 1.33 | 0.670 | 0.667 | -0.003 |
| 1989-05-16 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.58 | 19.80 | 0.78 | 0.659 | 0.657 | -0.002 |
| 1989-05-17 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.15 | 18.58 | 1.57 | 0.637 | 0.637 | 0.000 |
| 1989-05-18 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.25 | 18.60 | 1.65 | 0.651 | 0.649 | -0.002 |
| 1989-05-19 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.58 | 18.30 | 2.28 | 0.658 | 0.653 | -0.005 |
| 1989-05-22 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.92 | 17.40 | 3.52 | 0.640 | 0.640 | 0.000 |
Cases
Cases are the daily price of WTI and Brent oil, together with categorical variables for the respective US Administration ruling party and president.
Total number of cases are shown below:
nrow(dtFinal)## [1] 7858Variables
Dependent Variable
Response variables are the price of Gasoline in the US in both the Gulf of Mexico and New York regions, they are both numerical.
Independent Variable
The independent variables are the price of WTI and Brent oil, both numerical, and the US administration’s ruling party and president, which are qualitative.
Type of study
This is an observational study.
Scope of inference - generalizability
The general population for this analysis are oil and gasoline prices past and future. We only have a sample of past data, but with this analysis we are trying to infer the effect on prices in the future and in the past which are not part of this data set, prior to 1987. This generalization assumes other factors or variables remain constant. For example the premise that one party supports international relations above the other might not hold true at all times. During major international conflicts such as World Wars or international embargoes such as OPEC in the early 1970’s, lines between party positions might be blurred. It is also possible that certain administration while holding true to their party lines in most issues, might depart from the party’s status quo position with respect to oil and energy policy. An example might be President’s Obama decision to lift oil export bans, which might seem as supporting the oil industry, while his Democratic party usually does not support the industry. On the Republican side, which usually supports oil and gas, an example is President’s Trump constant pressure on international oil producers to increase production, which hurts the oil industry.
Scope of inference - causality
This being an observational study, establishing causality would be very difficult. We can only determine if there is a relationship between our input and output data. That is, we can only conclude our analysis identifies a correlation between the prices of oil and gasoline and the administration in power. We can not conclude that a given administration causes a determined price of oil and gasoline.
Part 3 - Exploratory data analysis
#oil
describe(dtFinal$Diff_Oil)## vars n mean sd median trimmed mad min max range skew
## X1 1 7858 -0.98 5.55 1.1 0.22 1.48 -29.59 22.18 51.77 -2.37
## kurtosis se
## X1 5.81 0.06ggplot()+geom_line(data=dtFinal,aes(x=Date,y=WTI_Price),color="red")+geom_line(data=dtFinal,aes(x=Date,y=Brent_Price),color="blue")+geom_line(data=dtFinal,aes(x=Date,y=Diff_Oil),color="yellow")
hist(dtFinal$Diff_Oil,breaks=200)
qqnorm(dtFinal$Diff_Oil)
qqline(dtFinal$Diff_Oil)
#gasoline
describe(dtFinal$Diff_Gasoline)## vars n mean sd median trimmed mad min max range skew kurtosis
## X1 1 7858 -0.03 0.07 -0.02 -0.02 0.03 -0.64 1.65 2.29 4.16 116.35
## se
## X1 0ggplot()+geom_line(data=dtFinal,aes(x=Date,y=GOM_Gasoline_Price),color="red")+geom_line(data=dtFinal,aes(x=Date,y=NY_Gasoline_Price),color="blue")+geom_line(data=dtFinal,aes(x=Date,y=Diff_Gasoline),color="yellow")
hist(dtFinal$Diff_Gasoline,breaks=100,xlim=c(-0.5,0.5))
qqnorm(dtFinal$Diff_Gasoline)
qqline(dtFinal$Diff_Gasoline)
Part 4 - Data Analysis
Inference
1) Have different administrations supported US (WTI) or international (Brent) oil differently?
To answer this question we state the following hypothesis:
\(H_0\): The difference between WTI and Brent is the same regarless of the in power administration’s party.
Diff_oil\(_{Republican}\) = Diff_oil\(_{Any\_party}\)
\(H_a\): The difference between WTI and Brent is different when the administration’s party is Republican or Democrat.
Diff_oil\(_{Republican}\) \(\not=\) Diff_oil\(_{Any\_party}\)
To perform this analysis we start with the sample of oil price differences we already have from our exploratory analysis.
sample_diff_oil<-dtFinal$Diff_OilFrom this data we calculate the confidence interval. This will tell us what rage of values the population’s diff in oil prices mean will be. We use a 95% confidence interval, which corresponds to a z of ~1.96
z<--qnorm(0.025)
z## [1] 1.959964We canculate the mean and standard deviation for our sample
sample_mean<-mean(sample_diff_oil)
sample_mean## [1] -0.9789654sample_sd<-sd(sample_diff_oil)
sample_sd## [1] 5.553912We start by calculating the standard error for this sample:
SE = z * (sd / sqrt(n))
n<-length(sample_diff_oil)
n## [1] 7858SE<-z * (sample_sd / sqrt(n))
SE## [1] 0.1227979With the SE we calculate our confidence interval:
SE = (upper - sample_mean) / z
upper = sample_mean + SE * Z
upper<-sample_mean + SE * z
lower<-sample_mean - SE * z
confidence_interval<-c(lower,upper)
confidence_interval## [1] -1.2196449 -0.7382859With this interval, we can now test our null hypothesis agaisnt any given value of difference between the two oil benchmarks. We can therefore test our null agaisn the oil benchmark difference when the administration is Republican or Democrat.
Republican Administration
First build a sample of oil prices difference for Republican administrations
sample_diff_oil_republican<-subset(dtFinal,dtFinal$Party == "Republican")
#instead of taking all of the observations, we build a random sample of 1000 observations
sample_diff_oil_republican<-sample_n(sample_diff_oil_republican,1000)
head(sample_diff_oil_republican,n=100) %>% kable() %>% kable_styling() %>% scroll_box(width = "1000px", height = "400px")| Date | Party | President | WTI_Price | Brent_Price | Diff_Oil | NY_Gasoline_Price | GOM_Gasoline_Price | Diff_Gasoline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-10-07 | Republican | George W Bush | 30.48 | 29.35 | 1.13 | 0.876 | 0.845 | -0.031 |
| 1989-11-22 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.80 | 18.60 | 1.20 | 0.511 | 0.494 | -0.017 |
| 1990-05-31 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.47 | 15.30 | 2.17 | 0.647 | 0.658 | 0.011 |
| 2008-09-16 | Republican | George W Bush | 91.49 | 85.85 | 5.64 | 2.862 | 3.147 | 0.285 |
| 2017-10-16 | Republican | Donald Trump | 51.86 | 57.49 | -5.63 | 1.689 | 1.639 | -0.050 |
| 1991-11-01 | Republican | George HW Bush | 23.85 | 22.53 | 1.32 | 0.683 | 0.638 | -0.045 |
| 2017-11-06 | Republican | Donald Trump | 57.34 | 64.27 | -6.93 | 1.928 | 1.851 | -0.077 |
| 2017-03-08 | Republican | Donald Trump | 49.83 | 53.30 | -3.47 | 1.482 | 1.495 | 0.013 |
| 2008-01-09 | Republican | George W Bush | 95.64 | 96.76 | -1.12 | 2.401 | 2.373 | -0.028 |
| 1991-07-04 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.69 | 18.48 | 2.21 | 0.632 | 0.613 | -0.019 |
| 1992-07-30 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.82 | 20.48 | 1.34 | 0.610 | 0.584 | -0.026 |
| 2001-12-04 | Republican | George W Bush | 19.71 | 19.28 | 0.43 | 0.515 | 0.497 | -0.018 |
| 2008-04-11 | Republican | George W Bush | 110.14 | 107.15 | 2.99 | 2.705 | 2.720 | 0.015 |
| 2005-10-28 | Republican | George W Bush | 61.30 | 59.47 | 1.83 | 1.570 | 1.555 | -0.015 |
| 2007-08-01 | Republican | George W Bush | 76.49 | 77.11 | -0.62 | 2.010 | 1.979 | -0.031 |
| 1991-12-23 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.58 | 17.60 | 0.98 | 0.535 | 0.499 | -0.036 |
| 2018-05-02 | Republican | Donald Trump | 67.91 | 73.14 | -5.23 | 2.031 | 1.996 | -0.035 |
| 1988-05-12 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 17.49 | 16.40 | 1.09 | 0.529 | 0.515 | -0.014 |
| 1990-07-19 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.07 | 17.85 | 1.22 | 0.661 | 0.607 | -0.054 |
| 2001-11-13 | Republican | George W Bush | 21.56 | 20.47 | 1.09 | 0.552 | 0.538 | -0.014 |
| 1987-08-04 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.82 | 20.65 | 1.17 | 0.557 | 0.540 | -0.017 |
| 1988-07-29 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 16.37 | 15.75 | 0.62 | 0.516 | 0.521 | 0.005 |
| 1990-06-28 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.18 | 15.40 | 1.78 | 0.622 | 0.579 | -0.043 |
| 2007-01-25 | Republican | George W Bush | 53.49 | 55.67 | -2.18 | 1.414 | 1.421 | 0.007 |
| 2004-07-14 | Republican | George W Bush | 40.98 | 37.51 | 3.47 | 1.273 | 1.283 | 0.010 |
| 2002-01-15 | Republican | George W Bush | 18.99 | 18.86 | 0.13 | 0.519 | 0.500 | -0.019 |
| 2007-03-28 | Republican | George W Bush | 64.11 | 66.15 | -2.04 | 1.985 | 1.908 | -0.077 |
| 2005-06-16 | Republican | George W Bush | 56.48 | 54.30 | 2.18 | 1.523 | 1.533 | 0.010 |
| 1987-11-25 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.63 | 17.68 | 0.95 | 0.503 | 0.486 | -0.017 |
| 1990-09-05 | Republican | George HW Bush | 30.00 | 31.23 | -1.23 | 1.030 | 0.951 | -0.079 |
| 1988-04-21 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.34 | 17.00 | 1.34 | 0.519 | 0.524 | 0.005 |
| 2007-05-11 | Republican | George W Bush | 62.35 | 65.18 | -2.83 | 2.326 | 2.361 | 0.035 |
| 1992-08-19 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.33 | 19.80 | 1.53 | 0.623 | 0.600 | -0.023 |
| 1989-11-20 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.13 | 18.80 | 1.33 | 0.513 | 0.501 | -0.012 |
| 1987-07-23 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 21.23 | 20.15 | 1.08 | 0.555 | 0.557 | 0.002 |
| 2018-05-24 | Republican | Donald Trump | 70.77 | 78.90 | -8.13 | 2.178 | 2.143 | -0.035 |
| 2002-03-27 | Republican | George W Bush | 25.79 | 25.13 | 0.66 | 0.746 | 0.778 | 0.032 |
| 1992-08-14 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.31 | 19.88 | 1.43 | 0.620 | 0.597 | -0.023 |
| 2018-06-20 | Republican | Donald Trump | 65.92 | 74.25 | -8.33 | 1.967 | 1.944 | -0.023 |
| 2006-05-25 | Republican | George W Bush | 70.92 | 68.51 | 2.41 | 2.008 | 1.998 | -0.010 |
| 2003-10-09 | Republican | George W Bush | 30.97 | 30.21 | 0.76 | 0.918 | 0.885 | -0.033 |
| 2004-10-14 | Republican | George W Bush | 54.69 | 51.31 | 3.38 | 1.420 | 1.395 | -0.025 |
| 1990-08-31 | Republican | George HW Bush | 27.45 | 27.80 | -0.35 | 0.968 | 0.895 | -0.073 |
| 2003-11-05 | Republican | George W Bush | 30.29 | 27.90 | 2.39 | 0.831 | 0.799 | -0.032 |
| 1989-08-07 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.91 | 16.05 | 1.86 | 0.503 | 0.484 | -0.019 |
| 2004-10-27 | Republican | George W Bush | 52.52 | 49.99 | 2.53 | 1.326 | 1.291 | -0.035 |
| 2002-06-07 | Republican | George W Bush | 24.72 | 22.99 | 1.73 | 0.708 | 0.709 | 0.001 |
| 2001-01-25 | Republican | George W Bush | 31.61 | 26.94 | 4.67 | 0.840 | 0.863 | 0.023 |
| 2008-09-11 | Republican | George W Bush | 100.95 | 96.01 | 4.94 | 2.914 | 4.254 | 1.340 |
| 2006-03-16 | Republican | George W Bush | 63.46 | 62.07 | 1.39 | 1.827 | 1.914 | 0.087 |
| 2003-06-18 | Republican | George W Bush | 30.28 | 26.43 | 3.85 | 0.770 | 0.792 | 0.022 |
| 2008-05-19 | Republican | George W Bush | 127.15 | 122.19 | 4.96 | 3.115 | 3.133 | 0.018 |
| 1988-08-30 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 15.39 | 14.45 | 0.94 | 0.491 | 0.466 | -0.025 |
| 2001-09-24 | Republican | George W Bush | 21.46 | 20.63 | 0.83 | 0.637 | 0.603 | -0.034 |
| 2004-05-12 | Republican | George W Bush | 40.30 | 37.95 | 2.35 | 1.349 | 1.323 | -0.026 |
| 2007-08-28 | Republican | George W Bush | 71.79 | 69.66 | 2.13 | 2.051 | 1.990 | -0.061 |
| 2003-04-07 | Republican | George W Bush | 27.76 | 25.27 | 2.49 | 0.781 | 0.793 | 0.012 |
| 2005-09-19 | Republican | George W Bush | 67.21 | 64.04 | 3.17 | 2.001 | 2.105 | 0.104 |
| 2007-10-15 | Republican | George W Bush | 86.19 | 82.50 | 3.69 | 2.214 | 2.172 | -0.042 |
| 1989-01-30 | Republican | George HW Bush | 17.32 | 16.85 | 0.47 | 0.490 | 0.489 | -0.001 |
| 2008-09-12 | Republican | George W Bush | 101.19 | 94.37 | 6.82 | 3.263 | 4.873 | 1.610 |
| 2008-05-27 | Republican | George W Bush | 128.81 | 128.92 | -0.11 | 3.243 | 3.216 | -0.027 |
| 1987-12-03 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 18.87 | 17.93 | 0.94 | 0.493 | 0.469 | -0.024 |
| 1991-07-26 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.48 | 19.73 | 1.75 | 0.661 | 0.650 | -0.011 |
| 1991-12-16 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.78 | 18.55 | 1.23 | 0.554 | 0.519 | -0.035 |
| 2008-07-15 | Republican | George W Bush | 138.68 | 136.02 | 2.66 | 3.237 | 3.237 | 0.000 |
| 1992-09-21 | Republican | George HW Bush | 21.91 | 20.15 | 1.76 | 0.593 | 0.571 | -0.022 |
| 1989-05-02 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.73 | 19.15 | 0.58 | 0.744 | 0.716 | -0.028 |
| 2008-02-06 | Republican | George W Bush | 87.16 | 88.73 | -1.57 | 2.167 | 2.192 | 0.025 |
| 1991-11-11 | Republican | George HW Bush | 22.66 | 21.45 | 1.21 | 0.640 | 0.615 | -0.025 |
| 1990-05-21 | Republican | George HW Bush | 18.26 | 16.65 | 1.61 | 0.649 | 0.655 | 0.006 |
| 2008-02-08 | Republican | George W Bush | 91.77 | 91.45 | 0.32 | 2.289 | 2.307 | 0.018 |
| 2001-07-18 | Republican | George W Bush | 24.65 | 23.10 | 1.55 | 0.651 | 0.684 | 0.033 |
| 2017-05-24 | Republican | Donald Trump | 50.99 | 53.29 | -2.30 | 1.617 | 1.592 | -0.025 |
| 2006-09-08 | Republican | George W Bush | 66.30 | 64.30 | 2.00 | 1.625 | 1.611 | -0.014 |
| 2003-12-04 | Republican | George W Bush | 31.24 | 29.25 | 1.99 | 0.868 | 0.820 | -0.048 |
| 1987-05-28 | Republican | Ronal Reagan | 19.28 | 18.60 | 0.68 | 0.551 | 0.529 | -0.022 |
| 2003-11-04 | Republican | George W Bush | 28.86 | 27.32 | 1.54 | 0.819 | 0.767 | -0.052 |
| 1989-07-05 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.98 | 18.75 | 2.23 | 0.594 | 0.557 | -0.037 |
| 2003-04-08 | Republican | George W Bush | 27.97 | 24.88 | 3.09 | 0.788 | 0.797 | 0.009 |
| 2001-12-11 | Republican | George W Bush | 18.04 | 17.61 | 0.43 | 0.469 | 0.441 | -0.028 |
| 1992-05-27 | Republican | George HW Bush | 22.00 | 20.80 | 1.20 | 0.647 | 0.642 | -0.005 |
| 1990-01-11 | Republican | George HW Bush | 23.15 | 21.88 | 1.27 | 0.678 | 0.680 | 0.002 |
| 2018-03-06 | Republican | Donald Trump | 62.54 | 65.67 | -3.13 | 1.793 | 1.758 | -0.035 |
| 1989-11-02 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.01 | 19.20 | 0.81 | 0.516 | 0.516 | 0.000 |
| 1989-09-21 | Republican | George HW Bush | 19.69 | 17.85 | 1.84 | 0.631 | 0.614 | -0.017 |
| 2007-10-23 | Republican | George W Bush | 86.45 | 82.31 | 4.14 | 2.122 | 2.098 | -0.024 |
| 2008-04-02 | Republican | George W Bush | 104.83 | 98.85 | 5.98 | 2.589 | 2.696 | 0.107 |
| 1989-07-17 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.49 | 18.05 | 2.44 | 0.582 | 0.552 | -0.030 |
| 1990-12-07 | Republican | George HW Bush | 26.61 | 28.30 | -1.69 | 0.668 | 0.632 | -0.036 |
| 2006-11-13 | Republican | George W Bush | 58.59 | 56.88 | 1.71 | 1.549 | 1.534 | -0.015 |
| 1992-04-27 | Republican | George HW Bush | 20.31 | 18.90 | 1.41 | 0.607 | 0.610 | 0.003 |
| 2017-03-07 | Republican | Donald Trump | 52.68 | 54.61 | -1.93 | 1.494 | 1.524 | 0.030 |
| 2017-11-03 | Republican | Donald Trump | 55.63 | 61.42 | -5.79 | 1.879 | 1.804 | -0.075 |
| 2002-04-03 | Republican | George W Bush | 27.55 | 26.72 | 0.83 | 0.764 | 0.807 | 0.043 |
| 2018-10-17 | Republican | Donald Trump | 69.63 | 79.91 | -10.28 | 2.008 | 1.943 | -0.065 |
| 2006-04-27 | Republican | George W Bush | 70.76 | 71.79 | -1.03 | 2.065 | 2.082 | 0.017 |
| 2018-07-30 | Republican | Donald Trump | 71.19 | 74.99 | -3.80 | 2.132 | 2.095 | -0.037 |
| 2006-05-16 | Republican | George W Bush | 69.40 | 68.66 | 0.74 | 1.990 | 1.988 | -0.002 |
| 2018-10-19 | Republican | Donald Trump | 69.16 | 80.38 | -11.22 | 1.991 | 1.908 | -0.083 |
sample_diff_oil_republican<-sample_diff_oil_republican$Diff_Oil
mean_republican<-mean(sample_diff_oil_republican)
mean_republican## [1] 0.69523Now we compare the Republican mean to the confidence interval. If it is within the interval, then we can not reject the mean and conclude the difference in bench mark oil indices is not different under a Republican administration. If it is outside the interval, then we reject the null hypothesis and conclude there is evidence that the difference in oil indices is different under a Republican administration.
if (mean_republican<confidence_interval[1] || mean_republican>confidence_interval[2]) {
print("We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Republican administration")
} else {
print("We can not reject the null, there is no evidence that oil indices are different under a Republican administration")
}## [1] "We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Republican administration"The analysis shows there is a difference between oil indices under a Republican administration. In fact if we observe that the mean is higher than the upper limit of the confidence interval, we can say there is evidence that WTI is higher than Brent under a Republican administration.
Democrat Administration
As before, first build a sample of oil prices difference for Republican administrations
sample_diff_oil_democrat<-subset(dtFinal,dtFinal$Party == "Democrat")
#instead of taking all of the observations, we build a random sample of 1000 observations
sample_diff_oil_democrat<-sample_n(sample_diff_oil_democrat,1000)
head(sample_diff_oil_democrat,n=100) %>% kable() %>% kable_styling() %>% scroll_box(width = "1000px", height = "400px")| Date | Party | President | WTI_Price | Brent_Price | Diff_Oil | NY_Gasoline_Price | GOM_Gasoline_Price | Diff_Gasoline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-29 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 44.12 | 46.61 | -2.49 | 1.378 | 1.358 | -0.020 |
| 2011-12-20 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 97.16 | 107.80 | -10.64 | 2.615 | 2.533 | -0.082 |
| 2010-11-03 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 84.45 | 85.33 | -0.88 | 2.165 | 2.082 | -0.083 |
| 2015-07-22 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 49.27 | 56.36 | -7.09 | 1.803 | 1.795 | -0.008 |
| 1996-11-07 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 22.80 | 21.75 | 1.05 | 0.667 | 0.662 | -0.005 |
| 1993-02-17 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.30 | 17.93 | 1.37 | 0.493 | 0.484 | -0.009 |
| 2011-05-20 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 99.15 | 111.25 | -12.10 | 2.862 | 2.815 | -0.047 |
| 1999-04-01 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 16.65 | 14.60 | 2.05 | 0.519 | 0.504 | -0.015 |
| 2009-02-09 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 39.58 | 47.23 | -7.65 | 1.289 | 1.269 | -0.020 |
| 1997-02-06 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 23.05 | 21.86 | 1.19 | 0.634 | 0.633 | -0.001 |
| 2014-10-27 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 81.26 | 85.64 | -4.38 | 2.287 | 2.030 | -0.257 |
| 1997-07-28 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.67 | 18.76 | 0.91 | 0.611 | 0.611 | 0.000 |
| 2014-04-22 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 101.69 | 108.54 | -6.85 | 3.015 | 2.850 | -0.165 |
| 1995-05-08 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 20.32 | 18.78 | 1.54 | 0.657 | 0.627 | -0.030 |
| 2011-08-01 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 94.98 | 116.37 | -21.39 | 3.050 | 2.963 | -0.087 |
| 2016-07-26 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 42.16 | 43.56 | -1.40 | 1.343 | 1.343 | 0.000 |
| 2014-10-30 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 81.06 | 85.50 | -4.44 | 2.300 | 2.055 | -0.245 |
| 1993-04-14 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 20.38 | 18.73 | 1.65 | 0.593 | 0.598 | 0.005 |
| 2013-01-14 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 94.27 | 111.32 | -17.05 | 2.765 | 2.610 | -0.155 |
| 2010-08-30 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 74.69 | 76.05 | -1.36 | 1.915 | 1.945 | 0.030 |
| 1997-03-13 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 20.65 | 19.30 | 1.35 | 0.609 | 0.605 | -0.004 |
| 2013-01-29 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 97.62 | 115.22 | -17.60 | 2.995 | 2.738 | -0.257 |
| 1998-01-28 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 17.35 | 15.64 | 1.71 | 0.482 | 0.474 | -0.008 |
| 2013-07-31 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 105.10 | 107.89 | -2.79 | 2.996 | 2.908 | -0.088 |
| 1995-03-31 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.18 | 17.98 | 1.20 | 0.512 | 0.539 | 0.027 |
| 2015-01-08 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 48.80 | 49.43 | -0.63 | 1.370 | 1.200 | -0.170 |
| 1993-12-17 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 13.98 | 13.85 | 0.13 | 0.383 | 0.372 | -0.011 |
| 2014-01-28 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 97.49 | 109.10 | -11.61 | 2.661 | 2.520 | -0.141 |
| 2010-03-02 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 79.62 | 77.50 | 2.12 | 2.099 | 2.072 | -0.027 |
| 1996-08-07 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 21.35 | 19.48 | 1.87 | 0.613 | 0.589 | -0.024 |
| 2012-09-10 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 96.52 | 113.84 | -17.32 | 3.427 | 3.137 | -0.290 |
| 2015-03-23 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 47.40 | 53.82 | -6.42 | 1.629 | 1.697 | 0.068 |
| 2000-10-27 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 32.78 | 31.31 | 1.47 | 0.997 | 0.863 | -0.134 |
| 2016-06-30 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 48.27 | 48.05 | 0.22 | 1.430 | 1.447 | 0.017 |
| 2000-02-10 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 29.49 | 27.32 | 2.17 | 0.802 | 0.804 | 0.002 |
| 2015-01-27 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 45.84 | 46.55 | -0.71 | 1.355 | 1.373 | 0.018 |
| 2010-10-08 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 82.66 | 83.88 | -1.22 | 2.218 | 2.141 | -0.077 |
| 2015-07-15 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 51.40 | 57.34 | -5.94 | 1.808 | 1.786 | -0.022 |
| 2016-10-07 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 49.76 | 50.49 | -0.73 | 1.473 | 1.506 | 0.033 |
| 1995-05-26 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 18.70 | 17.80 | 0.90 | 0.636 | 0.584 | -0.052 |
| 2010-07-16 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 75.96 | 75.55 | 0.41 | 1.972 | 1.960 | -0.012 |
| 2000-06-15 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 32.70 | 29.77 | 2.93 | 1.006 | 0.994 | -0.012 |
| 2015-12-31 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 37.13 | 36.61 | 0.52 | 1.284 | 1.154 | -0.130 |
| 2009-03-30 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 48.49 | 49.05 | -0.56 | 1.304 | 1.286 | -0.018 |
| 2010-04-08 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 85.17 | 82.63 | 2.54 | 2.206 | 2.163 | -0.043 |
| 2013-04-17 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 86.65 | 96.84 | -10.19 | 2.659 | 2.662 | 0.003 |
| 2012-09-13 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 98.30 | 116.00 | -17.70 | 3.205 | 3.033 | -0.172 |
| 2000-01-27 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 27.22 | 26.91 | 0.31 | 0.718 | 0.704 | -0.014 |
| 1995-08-25 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.91 | 16.15 | 3.76 | 0.555 | 0.498 | -0.057 |
| 2012-06-06 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 85.05 | 101.14 | -16.09 | 2.698 | 2.598 | -0.100 |
| 2010-03-08 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 81.85 | 78.94 | 2.91 | 2.168 | 2.166 | -0.002 |
| 2014-10-02 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 91.02 | 91.29 | -0.27 | 2.642 | 2.534 | -0.108 |
| 2012-09-27 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 91.89 | 111.45 | -19.56 | 3.439 | 3.052 | -0.387 |
| 1999-08-31 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 22.15 | 21.08 | 1.07 | 0.654 | 0.619 | -0.035 |
| 1999-03-12 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 14.51 | 12.30 | 2.21 | 0.416 | 0.425 | 0.009 |
| 1993-03-16 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 20.04 | 18.55 | 1.49 | 0.535 | 0.555 | 0.020 |
| 2009-05-11 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 57.79 | 55.99 | 1.80 | 1.656 | 1.583 | -0.073 |
| 1993-07-19 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 17.68 | 16.58 | 1.10 | 0.519 | 0.504 | -0.015 |
| 2015-11-24 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 40.89 | 44.38 | -3.49 | 1.389 | 1.214 | -0.175 |
| 1995-03-17 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 18.27 | 16.55 | 1.72 | 0.507 | 0.490 | -0.017 |
| 1994-06-09 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 18.67 | 16.13 | 2.54 | 0.513 | 0.509 | -0.004 |
| 2014-10-21 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 83.25 | 85.17 | -1.92 | 2.402 | 2.060 | -0.342 |
| 2000-05-02 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 26.86 | 24.73 | 2.13 | 0.827 | 0.850 | 0.023 |
| 2016-12-29 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 53.80 | 54.97 | -1.17 | 1.729 | 1.703 | -0.026 |
| 2012-09-20 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 92.14 | 109.41 | -17.27 | 3.140 | 2.958 | -0.182 |
| 2016-05-12 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 46.64 | 46.43 | 0.21 | 1.548 | 1.413 | -0.135 |
| 2011-06-16 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 94.95 | 114.69 | -19.74 | 2.832 | 2.782 | -0.050 |
| 1994-12-13 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 16.98 | 15.73 | 1.25 | 0.474 | 0.433 | -0.041 |
| 1999-01-22 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 12.62 | 11.23 | 1.39 | 0.328 | 0.317 | -0.011 |
| 1999-03-03 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 12.92 | 10.81 | 2.11 | 0.361 | 0.322 | -0.039 |
| 2015-09-21 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 46.67 | 47.64 | -0.97 | 1.454 | 1.360 | -0.094 |
| 2000-08-01 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 27.85 | 25.24 | 2.61 | 0.873 | 0.800 | -0.073 |
| 1994-07-13 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 20.14 | 18.25 | 1.89 | 0.539 | 0.540 | 0.001 |
| 2011-01-27 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 84.45 | 96.48 | -12.03 | 2.394 | 2.316 | -0.078 |
| 2013-04-22 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 88.81 | 99.07 | -10.26 | 2.695 | 2.695 | 0.000 |
| 1993-11-11 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 16.91 | 15.18 | 1.73 | 0.443 | 0.429 | -0.014 |
| 1997-06-16 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.10 | 17.15 | 1.95 | 0.554 | 0.549 | -0.005 |
| 2012-05-16 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 92.78 | 109.80 | -17.02 | 2.864 | 2.754 | -0.110 |
| 1993-07-23 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 17.67 | 16.85 | 0.82 | 0.513 | 0.497 | -0.016 |
| 1994-11-02 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 18.90 | 17.58 | 1.32 | 0.575 | 0.504 | -0.071 |
| 1996-05-31 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.77 | 18.10 | 1.67 | 0.574 | 0.562 | -0.012 |
| 1994-05-31 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 18.30 | 16.18 | 2.12 | 0.532 | 0.527 | -0.005 |
| 2013-10-31 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 96.29 | 107.53 | -11.24 | 2.640 | 2.412 | -0.228 |
| 2014-05-27 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 104.78 | 109.81 | -5.03 | 2.839 | 2.820 | -0.019 |
| 1997-09-18 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.41 | 18.14 | 1.27 | 0.595 | 0.538 | -0.057 |
| 1993-08-06 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 17.30 | 16.38 | 0.92 | 0.516 | 0.506 | -0.010 |
| 2011-03-04 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 104.34 | 115.71 | -11.37 | 2.887 | 2.887 | 0.000 |
| 2000-12-11 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 29.75 | 27.28 | 2.47 | 0.734 | 0.697 | -0.037 |
| 1996-07-11 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 21.96 | 20.01 | 1.95 | 0.635 | 0.621 | -0.014 |
| 1996-10-23 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 24.78 | 24.60 | 0.18 | 0.668 | 0.650 | -0.018 |
| 2014-10-07 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 88.89 | 90.90 | -2.01 | 2.560 | 2.348 | -0.212 |
| 1994-12-02 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 17.00 | 16.35 | 0.65 | 0.419 | 0.402 | -0.017 |
| 1994-03-18 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 14.88 | 14.05 | 0.83 | 0.447 | 0.465 | 0.018 |
| 1993-02-02 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 20.00 | 18.40 | 1.60 | 0.540 | 0.523 | -0.017 |
| 2010-03-09 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 81.50 | 78.77 | 2.73 | 2.149 | 2.149 | 0.000 |
| 1995-11-15 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 17.92 | 16.73 | 1.19 | 0.476 | 0.449 | -0.027 |
| 2016-08-02 | Democrat | Barrak Obama | 39.50 | 40.00 | -0.50 | 1.298 | 1.310 | 0.012 |
| 1995-01-30 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 18.20 | 16.68 | 1.52 | 0.493 | 0.479 | -0.014 |
| 1998-01-26 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 16.96 | 14.79 | 2.17 | 0.475 | 0.451 | -0.024 |
| 1997-09-09 | Democrat | Bill Clinton | 19.50 | 18.18 | 1.32 | 0.625 | 0.593 | -0.032 |
sample_diff_oil_democrat<-sample_diff_oil_democrat$Diff_Oil
mean_democrat<-mean(sample_diff_oil_democrat)
mean_democrat## [1] -3.17719Again we compare the Democratic mean to the confidence interval.
if (mean_democrat<confidence_interval[1] || mean_democrat>confidence_interval[2]) {
print("We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Democrat administration")
} else {
print("We can not reject the null, there is no evidence that oil indices are different under a Democrat administration")
}## [1] "We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Democrat administration"We gain see the result outside the confidence interval, so also for the Democrat Administrations, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is evidence that the difference between WTI and Brent is different under a Democratic administration. Because the Democratic mean is below the interval, we can also say there is evidence that under a Democratic administration, WTI prices are lower than Brent.
Skew in sample_diff_oil
As can be seen the sample_diff_oil we has some strong left skew.
hist(sample_diff_oil,freq = FALSE,breaks=200)
x <- seq(-30,20, by = 0.1)
y <- dnorm(x,sample_mean,sample_sd)
lines(x = x, y = y, col = "blue")
Just for curiosity, the analysis was repeated but using parameters for a distribution which seems to fit the sample_diff_oil better in its center and ignores its left skew. Parameters were calculated by visual inspection. This does not represent proper statistical analysis, but is rather an exercise to see if the results would be different, and potentially to conclude the skew in our sample distribution is too large for the analysis to be valid.
sample_sd<-sd(sample_diff_oil)/5
sample_sd## [1] 1.110782sample_mean<-median(sample_diff_oil)
sample_mean## [1] 1.1hist(sample_diff_oil,freq = FALSE,breaks=200)
x <- seq(-30,20, by = 0.1)
y <- dnorm(x,sample_mean,sample_sd)
lines(x = x, y = y, col = "blue")
SE<-z * (sample_sd / sqrt(n))
SE## [1] 0.02455959upper<-sample_mean + SE * z
lower<-sample_mean - SE * z
confidence_interval<-c(lower,upper)
confidence_interval## [1] 1.051864 1.148136Republican Administration
if (mean_republican<confidence_interval[1] || mean_republican>confidence_interval[2]) {
print("We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Republican administration")
} else {
print("We can not reject the null, there is no evidence that oil indices are different under a Republican administration")
}## [1] "We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Republican administration"We again reject the null. But this time the difference for a Republican administrations falls below the interval.
Democrat Administration
if (mean_democrat<confidence_interval[1] || mean_democrat>confidence_interval[2]) {
print("We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Democrat administration")
} else {
print("We can not reject the null, there is no evidence that oil indices are different under a Democrat administration")
}## [1] "We reject the null, there is evidence that oil indices are different under a Democrat administration"Result is similar with the original sample_diff_oil distribution
The problem with using this distribution for our analysis is that it discounts most of the observations in the skew sample. Although we again reject the null for both administrations, they both fall under the interval, because most observation are below this empirical distribution we used. Analysis with this distribution doesn’t seem to be valid and is discarded.
Regression
2) Is US domestic (WTI) or imported (Brent) oil a better indicator of gasoline prices?
To answer this question we can do separate linear regression models for WTI and Brent. The model with the lowest R square.
GOM Gasoline vs Oil Indices
We build models agaisnt WTI and Brent oil prices and determine which index price better predicts this gasoline price. We start with a model of WTI vs GOM gasoline, theb Brent vs GOM gasoline, and using the R Square of each, determine which is a better predictor.
WTI_GOM_model<-lm(GOM_Gasoline_Price ~ WTI_Price,data = dtFinal)
plot(x=dtFinal$WTI_Price, y=dtFinal$GOM_Gasoline_Price)
abline(WTI_GOM_model)
summary(WTI_GOM_model)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = GOM_Gasoline_Price ~ WTI_Price, data = dtFinal)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.58538 -0.07123 -0.02338 0.06247 2.08740
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 4.306e-02 3.153e-03 13.65 <2e-16 ***
## WTI_Price 2.710e-02 5.843e-05 463.89 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.1535 on 7856 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.9648, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9648
## F-statistic: 2.152e+05 on 1 and 7856 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16We find this model to have a pretty high R square at 0.9648
Gasoline_Results<-data.frame(GOM_WTI=summary(WTI_GOM_model)$r.squared)We also look at residuals to make sure the model is valid. As shown below the distribution histogram shows they are normal, the probability plot shows point close to the center line. The scattered plot should show constant variability with no patterns, but as seen below there for lower gasoline prices, points are closer together. At higher prices they widen with even some outliners with very high residuals at the higher gasoline prices. This does cast some doubt on the model. Further analysis might be required.
#normal distributions of residuals
hist(WTI_GOM_model$residuals)
#points close to the center line
qqnorm(WTI_GOM_model$residuals)
qqline(WTI_GOM_model$residuals)
#constant variability
plot(WTI_GOM_model$residuals ~ dtFinal$GOM_Gasoline_Price)
abline(h = 0, lty = 3)
A model of Brent vs GOM Gasoline prices is built analyzing in the same matter.
Brent_GOM_model<-lm(GOM_Gasoline_Price ~ Brent_Price,data = dtFinal)
plot(x=dtFinal$Brent_Price, y=dtFinal$GOM_Gasoline_Price)
abline(Brent_GOM_model)
summary(Brent_GOM_model)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = GOM_Gasoline_Price ~ Brent_Price, data = dtFinal)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.49837 -0.06815 -0.02171 0.05320 2.43162
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 1.433e-01 2.593e-03 55.28 <2e-16 ***
## Brent_Price 2.435e-02 4.568e-05 533.12 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.1341 on 7856 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.9731, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9731
## F-statistic: 2.842e+05 on 1 and 7856 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16We find this model to have a pretty high R square at 0.9731
Gasoline_Results$GOM_Brent<-summary(Brent_GOM_model)$r.squaredThe residual analysis is similar to the previous model. Distribution and probability plots show a good model, but constant variability as seen in the scattered plot might require further review.
#normal distributions of residuals
hist(Brent_GOM_model$residuals)
#points close to the center line
qqnorm(Brent_GOM_model$residuals)
qqline(Brent_GOM_model$residuals)
#constant variability
plot(Brent_GOM_model$residuals ~ dtFinal$GOM_Gasoline_Price)
abline(h = 0, lty = 3)
GOM Gasoline predictor: With a higer Rsquare, we find Brent oil to be a better predictor of GOM Gasoline prices.
NY Gasoline vs Oil Indices
We follow the same analysis as we did for GOM Gasoline. First we build a model agasit WTI and then agaisnt Brent oil.
WTI_NY_model<-lm(NY_Gasoline_Price ~ WTI_Price,data = dtFinal)
plot(x=dtFinal$WTI_Price, y=dtFinal$NY_Gasoline_Price)
abline(WTI_NY_model)
summary(WTI_NY_model)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = NY_Gasoline_Price ~ WTI_Price, data = dtFinal)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.68945 -0.06684 -0.02452 0.05825 1.32009
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 4.857e-02 3.138e-03 15.48 <2e-16 ***
## WTI_Price 2.763e-02 5.814e-05 475.24 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.1528 on 7856 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.9664, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9664
## F-statistic: 2.259e+05 on 1 and 7856 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16We find this model to have a pretty high R square at 0.9664
Gasoline_Results$NY_WTI<-summary(WTI_NY_model)$r.squaredOur analysis of the residuals shows similar results as with the GOM models. Constant variability might need to be revisited.
#normal distributions of residuals
hist(WTI_NY_model$residuals)
#points close to the center line
qqnorm(WTI_NY_model$residuals)
qqline(WTI_NY_model$residuals)
#constant variability
plot(WTI_NY_model$residuals ~ dtFinal$NY_Gasoline_Price)
abline(h = 0, lty = 3)
Finaly we build a model agaisnt Brent oil.
Brent_NY_model<-lm(NY_Gasoline_Price ~ Brent_Price,data = dtFinal)
plot(x=dtFinal$Brent_Price, y=dtFinal$NY_Gasoline_Price)
abline(Brent_NY_model)
summary(Brent_NY_model)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = NY_Gasoline_Price ~ Brent_Price, data = dtFinal)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.46879 -0.06434 -0.02141 0.04924 1.45409
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 1.470e-01 2.206e-03 66.63 <2e-16 ***
## Brent_Price 2.491e-02 3.886e-05 640.99 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.1141 on 7856 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.9812, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9812
## F-statistic: 4.109e+05 on 1 and 7856 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16We find this model to have a pretty high R square at 0.9812
Gasoline_Results$NY_Brent<-summary(Brent_NY_model)$r.squaredOur analysis of the residuals shows similar results as with the GOM models. Constant variability might need to be revisited.
#normal distributions of residuals
hist(Brent_NY_model$residuals)
#points close to the center line
qqnorm(Brent_NY_model$residuals)
qqline(Brent_NY_model$residuals)
#constant variability
plot(Brent_NY_model$residuals ~ dtFinal$NY_Gasoline_Price)
abline(h = 0, lty = 3)
NY Gasoline predictor: With a higer Rsquare, we find Brent oil to be a better predictor of NY Gasoline prices.
Part 5 - Conclusion
1) Have different administrations supported US (WTI) or international (Brent) oil differently?
Our inference analysis suggest there is a difference between how both parties handle WTI and Brent oil prices, and thus their approach to international relations (as they relate to international oil prices). Republican adminstrations show to favor higher WTI prices, while Democratic administration favor higher Brent prices.
2) Is US domestic (WTI) or imported (Brent) oil a better indicator of gasoline prices?
Results for our Gasoline analysis is shown below.
Gasoline_Results %>% kable() %>% kable_styling() %>% scroll_box()| GOM_WTI | GOM_Brent | NY_WTI | NY_Brent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9647792 | 0.9731023 | 0.9663851 | 0.9812382 |
Here we can see how for both Gasoline Indices Brent Oil prices are a better predictor. This is somewhat unexpected, as our premise was that NY Gasoline would better reflect domestic WTI prices. The analysis performed however suggest oil prices are better lined with international Brent Oil that to domestic WTI, regardless of where in the country gasoline is being produced and traded.
General Conclusion
The analysis suggest international relations are relevant to the prices of gasoline in our country. Brent oil is a good indicator of gasoline prices regardless of where it is produced and traded. Analysis also suggest one party’s position has resulted in different/lower Brent oil prices compared to the other. Administrations with the Republican party at the helm show statistically significant lower Brent oil prices. Since these oil prices have been found to correlate with gasoline prices very well, this party’s administrations show helping lower the cost of gasoline for Americans.
To keep in mind in this analysis, oil prices have a substantial lagging effect. Policies to either increase of decrease prices might have a lagging effect. Although small ups and downs are certainly seen in the short term, because of the industry’s capital intensive nature, changes in policy might not be reflected after several years. So policies in a Democratic administration might not be visible until the Republican administration is at the helm. Also the oil landscape is changing fast. Demand growth is decelerating rapidly, new forms of anergy are emerging, margins for oil companies is decreasing, and the US is now the worlds top producers. Infrastructure in the US is changing with new pipelines and transportation alternatives growing daily. It is becoming hard to really paint a picture of what the energy landscape will look like in a few years.
References
Laffer Associates Oil and Energy: Thirty-Five Years of Supply-Side Economics. Brian Domitrovic Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy, Dec 1, 2016
WTI vs. Brent Crude Oil: What is the Difference? Daniela Pylypczak-WasylyszynJun 24, 2015