14 November 2018

Outline

  • Putting the “blue wave” in context
  • Record-breaking turnout
  • Overcoming gerrymandering
  • 2020 portents?
  • Policy implications

Dow Jones vs All Ords, GFC low = 100

Real change, GDP per capita

Unemployment rates

But Trump’s approval…

Presidential approval & midterm seat loss

The House result in historical context

Turnout

  • 2018 midterm 104.6M votes, 77% of 2016 presidential votes.
  • 2014 58% of 2012 turnout.
  • 2010 66% of 2008 turnout (“change” election).
  • 2018 turnout surge not just due to Democratic enthusiasm.

Increased turnout associated with Democratic swing

Gerrymandering helped stem the seat loss for Republicans: North Carolina

District Dem Votes Rep Votes Dem % Winner
4 242,002 80,546 75.0 D
12 202,228 74,639 73.0 D
1 188,074 81,486 69.8 D
9 136,478 138,338 49.7 R
2 148,959 167,382 47.1 R
13 128,764 145,962 46.9 R
8 112,971 140,347 44.6 R
7 119,606 155,705 43.4 R
6 122,323 159,651 43.4 R
5 118,558 158,444 42.8 R
10 112,386 164,060 40.7 R
11 115,824 177,230 39.5 R
State-wide 1,748,173 1,643,790 51.5 3D:9R

Dummy-mandering helped generate seat losses for Republicans: New Jersey

District Dem Votes Rep Votes Dem % Winner
10 166,886 19,632 89.5 D
8 113,539 27,669 80.4 D
9 125,110 52,091 70.6 D
12 168,253 77,270 68.5 D
1 163,948 85,193 65.8 D
6 135,770 78,570 63.3 D
11 162,264 123,156 56.9 D
5 148,021 116,505 56.0 D
2 126,420 111,001 53.2 D
7 158,892 144,802 52.3 D
3 150,311 146,887 50.6 D
4 123,995 159,965 43.7 R
State-wide 1,743,409 1,142,741 60.4 11D:1R

Policy takeaways

  • Does impeachment get in the way? How “lefty” is the new Dem caucus?
  • Trump did very little with Congress: tax cuts and budget spend
  • Executive action \(\rightarrow\) courts
  • Continued defence spending for infrastructure deal?
  • Republican surrender on Obamacare
  • States diverging from Washington?
  • China policy largely unchanged, bipartisan support