Forecast

library(readxl)
library(tseries)
library(forecast)
library(zoo)
library(plotly)
bor <- read_excel("C:/Users/amgaa/Desktop/sudalgaa/bor.xlsx",sheet = "utlagat")
autoplot(mdeaths)

aa<-zoo(bor$niislel)
fc <- forecast(bor$niislel)
autoplot(fc) 

plot(forecast(auto.arima(aa)))

forecast(auto.arima(aa))
auto.arima(aa)

adf = adf.test(aa[,1])
adf
(fit1 <- arima(aa, c(1, 0, 0)))
plot(forecast(arima(aa, order=c(12, 1, 12))))

k<-forecast(arima(aa, order=c(15, 1, 15)))
k<-autoplot(k) 
ggplotly(k)
## aldaanii graphic bolon test
k<-arima(aa, order=c(15, 1, 15) ,seasonal=c(0,1,2)) 
checkresiduals(k)

autoplot(k) 

## uliraliin helbelzel graphic
aa <- ts(bor$niislel, start=c(2017, 1), freq=12)
ggseasonplot(aa)

ggseasonplot(aa, polar=TRUE)

gglagplot(aa)

ggtsdisplay(aa)