Overview
This document covers output from five regression models run against four major age classes in this river. The regression models are:
- Sibling
- log(Sibling)
- LogY(Sibling)
- LnR vs. LnR
- Ricker
The first three forecast models are based on linear regressions of sibling relationships. Below are the sibling relationships that are relevant for each of the four major age classes that we are forecasting:
| Age.12 |
Age.11 |
| Age.22 |
Age.21 |
| Age.13 |
Age.12 |
| Age.23 |
Age.22 |
Table output
Each model output consists of a table and two graphs. The table shows the most recent 10 years of observed returns for the age being forecast (‘Observed Return’) and the relevant sibling return (‘Sibling Return’) shown in bold black text. Brood and return years are shown in blue text. Two regression model statistics (R-squared and P-value of the slope) are shown in red. Model forecasted returns are shown in bold black text with a yellow highlight. Error measurements are shown in green text. Error measurements shown are absolute deviation (AD), absolute percent error (APE), percent error (PE) and arc tan percent error (AAPE).
Absolute deviation (AD) is defined as
\[\ AD = O - F\] where
O = Observed Return
F = Forecasted Return
Absolute Percent error (APE) is defined as
\[\ APE = ABS(1 - F/O)\] Percent error (PE) is defined as
\[\ PE = 1 - F/O\] Arctangent percent error (AAPE) is defined as \[\ AAPE = arctan(abs((O - F)/O))\]
Graphical output
For each model the data being regressed is shown in a scatterplot. The second graph shows the regression residuals.
age.12
Below are model outputs using data from 1972
sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2007
|
1,542,520
|
0
|
0.515
|
0
|
1,748,672
|
206,152
|
0.13
|
-0.13
|
0.13
|
|
2012
|
2008
|
2,679,158
|
0
|
0.518
|
0
|
1,741,590
|
937,567
|
0.35
|
0.35
|
0.34
|
|
2013
|
2009
|
740,947
|
0
|
0.516
|
0
|
1,772,727
|
1,031,781
|
1.39
|
-1.39
|
0.95
|
|
2014
|
2010
|
6,053,034
|
3,046
|
0.519
|
0
|
2,454,585
|
3,598,449
|
0.59
|
0.59
|
0.54
|
|
2015
|
2011
|
2,846,209
|
4,589
|
0.501
|
0
|
2,909,401
|
63,192
|
0.02
|
-0.02
|
0.02
|
|
2016
|
2012
|
8,590,994
|
21,302
|
0.501
|
0
|
6,804,771
|
1,786,223
|
0.21
|
0.21
|
0.20
|
|
2017
|
2013
|
3,713,931
|
2,616
|
0.528
|
0
|
2,474,247
|
1,239,684
|
0.33
|
0.33
|
0.32
|
|
2018
|
2014
|
4,484,065
|
9,832
|
0.525
|
0
|
4,229,603
|
254,462
|
0.06
|
0.06
|
0.06
|
|
2019
|
2015
|
5,730,177
|
4,227
|
0.527
|
0
|
2,896,111
|
2,834,066
|
0.49
|
0.49
|
0.46
|
|
2020
|
2016
|
NA
|
3,011
|
0.517
|
0
|
2,671,282
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ln.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2007
|
1,542,520
|
0
|
0.433
|
0
|
682,409
|
860,111
|
0.56
|
0.56
|
0.51
|
|
2012
|
2008
|
2,679,158
|
0
|
0.417
|
0
|
729,402
|
1,949,756
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.63
|
|
2013
|
2009
|
740,947
|
0
|
0.375
|
0
|
804,680
|
63,733
|
0.09
|
-0.09
|
0.09
|
|
2014
|
2010
|
6,053,034
|
3,046
|
0.389
|
0
|
2,825,989
|
3,227,045
|
0.53
|
0.53
|
0.49
|
|
2015
|
2011
|
2,846,209
|
4,589
|
0.397
|
0
|
3,108,066
|
261,857
|
0.09
|
-0.09
|
0.09
|
|
2016
|
2012
|
8,590,994
|
21,302
|
0.400
|
0
|
3,961,297
|
4,629,697
|
0.54
|
0.54
|
0.49
|
|
2017
|
2013
|
3,713,931
|
2,616
|
0.420
|
0
|
2,923,050
|
790,881
|
0.21
|
0.21
|
0.21
|
|
2018
|
2014
|
4,484,065
|
9,832
|
0.425
|
0
|
3,673,497
|
810,568
|
0.18
|
0.18
|
0.18
|
|
2019
|
2015
|
5,730,177
|
4,227
|
0.433
|
0
|
3,215,880
|
2,514,297
|
0.44
|
0.44
|
0.41
|
|
2020
|
2016
|
NA
|
3,011
|
0.440
|
0
|
3,095,408
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnY.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2007
|
1,542,520
|
0
|
0.242
|
0.002
|
1,415,729
|
126,791
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
|
2012
|
2008
|
2,679,158
|
0
|
0.243
|
0.001
|
1,419,906
|
1,259,252
|
0.47
|
0.47
|
0.44
|
|
2013
|
2009
|
740,947
|
0
|
0.235
|
0.001
|
1,450,164
|
709,217
|
0.96
|
-0.96
|
0.76
|
|
2014
|
2010
|
6,053,034
|
3,046
|
0.241
|
0.001
|
1,642,835
|
4,410,199
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.63
|
|
2015
|
2011
|
2,846,209
|
4,589
|
0.225
|
0.001
|
1,829,663
|
1,016,546
|
0.36
|
0.36
|
0.34
|
|
2016
|
2012
|
8,590,994
|
21,302
|
0.224
|
0.001
|
4,087,831
|
4,503,164
|
0.52
|
0.52
|
0.48
|
|
2017
|
2013
|
3,713,931
|
2,616
|
0.255
|
0.000
|
1,703,331
|
2,010,600
|
0.54
|
0.54
|
0.50
|
|
2018
|
2014
|
4,484,065
|
9,832
|
0.248
|
0.000
|
2,486,131
|
1,997,934
|
0.45
|
0.45
|
0.42
|
|
2019
|
2015
|
5,730,177
|
4,227
|
0.252
|
0.000
|
1,906,743
|
3,823,435
|
0.67
|
0.67
|
0.59
|
|
2020
|
2016
|
NA
|
3,011
|
0.243
|
0.000
|
1,840,233
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnS.lnR
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2007
|
1,542,520
|
0
|
0.221
|
0.003
|
1,704,110
|
161,590
|
0.10
|
-0.10
|
0.10
|
|
2012
|
2008
|
2,679,158
|
0
|
0.222
|
0.002
|
1,682,744
|
996,414
|
0.37
|
0.37
|
0.36
|
|
2013
|
2009
|
740,947
|
0
|
0.219
|
0.002
|
1,539,324
|
798,378
|
1.08
|
-1.08
|
0.82
|
|
2014
|
2010
|
6,053,034
|
3,046
|
0.223
|
0.002
|
2,086,585
|
3,966,449
|
0.66
|
0.66
|
0.58
|
|
2015
|
2011
|
2,846,209
|
4,589
|
0.223
|
0.001
|
1,542,373
|
1,303,836
|
0.46
|
0.46
|
0.43
|
|
2016
|
2012
|
8,590,994
|
21,302
|
0.217
|
0.001
|
2,167,135
|
6,423,860
|
0.75
|
0.75
|
0.64
|
|
2017
|
2013
|
3,713,931
|
2,616
|
0.215
|
0.001
|
1,547,749
|
2,166,182
|
0.58
|
0.58
|
0.53
|
|
2018
|
2014
|
4,484,065
|
9,832
|
0.204
|
0.002
|
2,372,479
|
2,111,586
|
0.47
|
0.47
|
0.44
|
|
2019
|
2015
|
5,730,177
|
4,227
|
0.208
|
0.001
|
3,153,115
|
2,577,063
|
0.45
|
0.45
|
0.42
|
|
2020
|
2016
|
NA
|
3,011
|
0.220
|
0.001
|
2,458,726
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ricker
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2007
|
1,542,520
|
0
|
0.139
|
0.016
|
1,915,008
|
372,489
|
0.24
|
-0.24
|
0.24
|
|
2012
|
2008
|
2,679,158
|
0
|
0.138
|
0.015
|
1,874,588
|
804,570
|
0.30
|
0.30
|
0.29
|
|
2013
|
2009
|
740,947
|
0
|
0.142
|
0.012
|
1,628,936
|
887,989
|
1.20
|
-1.20
|
0.88
|
|
2014
|
2010
|
6,053,034
|
3,046
|
0.133
|
0.014
|
2,483,816
|
3,569,217
|
0.59
|
0.59
|
0.53
|
|
2015
|
2011
|
2,846,209
|
4,589
|
0.132
|
0.013
|
1,623,202
|
1,223,007
|
0.43
|
0.43
|
0.41
|
|
2016
|
2012
|
8,590,994
|
21,302
|
0.138
|
0.011
|
2,563,164
|
6,027,830
|
0.70
|
0.70
|
0.61
|
|
2017
|
2013
|
3,713,931
|
2,616
|
0.134
|
0.011
|
1,598,306
|
2,115,626
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
0.52
|
|
2018
|
2014
|
4,484,065
|
9,832
|
0.142
|
0.008
|
2,809,287
|
1,674,779
|
0.37
|
0.37
|
0.36
|
|
2019
|
2015
|
5,730,177
|
4,227
|
0.141
|
0.007
|
3,572,217
|
2,157,961
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.36
|
|
2020
|
2016
|
NA
|
3,011
|
0.137
|
0.008
|
2,871,589
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


5-year Average
## return.year Observed.Return forecast AD APE PE
## 1 2011 1542519.6 2814611 -1272091.1 0.82468388 -0.82468388
## 2 2012 2679157.7 2284934 394224.0 0.14714474 0.14714474
## 3 2013 740946.6 2156610 -1415663.1 1.91061421 -1.91061421
## 4 2014 6053033.8 2753914 3299119.4 0.54503568 0.54503568
## 5 2015 2846209.0 3079837 -233627.8 0.08208385 -0.08208385
## 6 2016 8590994.5 4557796 4033198.5 0.46946818 0.46946818
## 7 2017 3713931.2 5301042 -1587110.9 0.42733989 -0.42733989
## 8 2018 4484065.3 4908800 -424734.7 0.09472091 -0.09472091
## 9 2019 5730177.4 5629792 100385.3 0.01751870 0.01751870
## AAPE
## 1 0.68961192
## 2 0.14609635
## 3 1.08861080
## 4 0.49902384
## 5 0.08190024
## 6 0.43892520
## 7 0.40385088
## 8 0.09443914
## 9 0.01751691
age.22
sibling
Below are model outputs using data from 1972
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
1,197,115
|
0
|
0.624
|
0
|
2,545,156
|
1,348,041
|
1.13
|
-1.13
|
0.84
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
6,972,782
|
24,305
|
0.626
|
0
|
4,457,935
|
2,514,847
|
0.36
|
0.36
|
0.35
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,247,528
|
2,520
|
0.624
|
0
|
2,775,711
|
1,528,184
|
1.22
|
-1.22
|
0.89
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
9,725,832
|
11,611
|
0.626
|
0
|
3,460,694
|
6,265,137
|
0.64
|
0.64
|
0.57
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
13,231,078
|
87,386
|
0.611
|
0
|
9,706,769
|
3,524,309
|
0.27
|
0.27
|
0.26
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,573,729
|
43,953
|
0.617
|
0
|
6,328,002
|
3,754,273
|
1.46
|
-1.46
|
0.97
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
397,153
|
3,702
|
0.612
|
0
|
2,980,939
|
2,583,787
|
6.51
|
-6.51
|
1.42
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
38,269
|
2,155
|
0.614
|
0
|
2,780,356
|
2,742,086
|
71.65
|
-71.65
|
1.56
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
71,251
|
4,883
|
0.615
|
0
|
2,924,316
|
2,853,065
|
40.04
|
-40.04
|
1.55
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
0
|
0.617
|
0
|
2,446,644
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ln.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
1,197,115
|
0
|
0.360
|
0
|
311,855
|
885,260
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
0.64
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
6,972,782
|
24,305
|
0.345
|
0
|
3,731,602
|
3,241,180
|
0.46
|
0.46
|
0.44
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,247,528
|
2,520
|
0.355
|
0
|
2,241,240
|
993,712
|
0.80
|
-0.80
|
0.67
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
9,725,832
|
11,611
|
0.353
|
0
|
3,160,973
|
6,564,858
|
0.67
|
0.67
|
0.59
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
13,231,078
|
87,386
|
0.359
|
0
|
5,341,752
|
7,889,326
|
0.60
|
0.60
|
0.54
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,573,729
|
43,953
|
0.374
|
0
|
4,731,617
|
2,157,888
|
0.84
|
-0.84
|
0.70
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
397,153
|
3,702
|
0.372
|
0
|
2,529,400
|
2,132,247
|
5.37
|
-5.37
|
1.39
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
38,269
|
2,155
|
0.357
|
0
|
2,116,144
|
2,077,875
|
54.30
|
-54.30
|
1.55
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
71,251
|
4,883
|
0.307
|
0
|
2,327,385
|
2,256,134
|
31.66
|
-31.66
|
1.54
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
0
|
0.269
|
0
|
323,937
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnY.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
1,197,115
|
0
|
0.331
|
0
|
978,020
|
219,095
|
0.18
|
0.18
|
0.18
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
6,972,782
|
24,305
|
0.332
|
0
|
1,379,402
|
5,593,380
|
0.80
|
0.80
|
0.68
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,247,528
|
2,520
|
0.321
|
0
|
1,070,039
|
177,489
|
0.14
|
0.14
|
0.14
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
9,725,832
|
11,611
|
0.322
|
0
|
1,218,442
|
8,507,389
|
0.87
|
0.87
|
0.72
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
13,231,078
|
87,386
|
0.303
|
0
|
3,602,141
|
9,628,937
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.63
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,573,729
|
43,953
|
0.313
|
0
|
2,076,519
|
497,210
|
0.19
|
0.19
|
0.19
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
397,153
|
3,702
|
0.314
|
0
|
1,195,348
|
798,195
|
2.01
|
-2.01
|
1.11
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
38,269
|
2,155
|
0.317
|
0
|
1,132,867
|
1,094,598
|
28.60
|
-28.60
|
1.54
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
71,251
|
4,883
|
0.306
|
0
|
1,069,588
|
998,337
|
14.01
|
-14.01
|
1.50
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
0
|
0.302
|
0
|
924,063
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ricker
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
1,197,115
|
0
|
0.018
|
0.215
|
1,378,063
|
180,948
|
0.15
|
-0.15
|
0.15
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
6,972,782
|
24,305
|
0.020
|
0.204
|
1,236,002
|
5,736,780
|
0.82
|
0.82
|
0.69
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,247,528
|
2,520
|
0.012
|
0.244
|
1,281,089
|
33,561
|
0.03
|
-0.03
|
0.03
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
9,725,832
|
11,611
|
0.013
|
0.235
|
1,021,967
|
8,703,864
|
0.89
|
0.89
|
0.73
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
13,231,078
|
87,386
|
0.002
|
0.310
|
2,262,992
|
10,968,086
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.69
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,573,729
|
43,953
|
0.000
|
0.325
|
1,157,502
|
1,416,227
|
0.55
|
0.55
|
0.50
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
397,153
|
3,702
|
-0.002
|
0.344
|
2,389,722
|
1,992,569
|
5.02
|
-5.02
|
1.37
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
38,269
|
2,155
|
-0.002
|
0.338
|
1,037,439
|
999,170
|
26.11
|
-26.11
|
1.53
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
71,251
|
4,883
|
0.007
|
0.266
|
2,293,323
|
2,222,072
|
31.19
|
-31.19
|
1.54
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
0
|
0.004
|
0.289
|
4,136,214
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


age.13
sibling
Below are model outputs using data from 1972
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
2,701,997
|
3,663,815
|
0.339
|
0.000
|
1,332,570
|
1,369,427
|
0.51
|
0.51
|
0.47
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
1,852,364
|
1,542,520
|
0.315
|
0.000
|
1,096,757
|
755,607
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.39
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,930,847
|
2,679,158
|
0.300
|
0.000
|
1,266,532
|
664,315
|
0.34
|
0.34
|
0.33
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
1,001,605
|
740,947
|
0.292
|
0.000
|
1,037,815
|
36,211
|
0.04
|
-0.04
|
0.04
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
5,545,200
|
6,053,034
|
0.296
|
0.000
|
1,713,813
|
3,831,387
|
0.69
|
0.69
|
0.60
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,168,999
|
2,846,209
|
0.244
|
0.001
|
1,399,643
|
769,356
|
0.35
|
0.35
|
0.34
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
2,635,003
|
8,590,994
|
0.240
|
0.001
|
2,303,522
|
331,482
|
0.13
|
0.13
|
0.13
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
2,789,273
|
3,713,931
|
0.264
|
0.000
|
1,562,926
|
1,226,347
|
0.44
|
0.44
|
0.41
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
2,065,407
|
4,484,065
|
0.258
|
0.000
|
1,715,752
|
349,655
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
5,730,177
|
0.261
|
0.000
|
1,924,980
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ln.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
2,701,997
|
3,663,815
|
0.361
|
0
|
1,369,154
|
1,332,843
|
0.49
|
0.49
|
0.46
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
1,852,364
|
1,542,520
|
0.370
|
0
|
911,523
|
940,842
|
0.51
|
0.51
|
0.47
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,930,847
|
2,679,158
|
0.359
|
0
|
1,225,841
|
705,007
|
0.37
|
0.37
|
0.35
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
1,001,605
|
740,947
|
0.362
|
0
|
649,860
|
351,744
|
0.35
|
0.35
|
0.34
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
5,545,200
|
6,053,034
|
0.355
|
0
|
1,873,428
|
3,671,772
|
0.66
|
0.66
|
0.58
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,168,999
|
2,846,209
|
0.380
|
0
|
1,345,773
|
823,227
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.36
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
2,635,003
|
8,590,994
|
0.383
|
0
|
2,459,153
|
175,850
|
0.07
|
0.07
|
0.07
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
2,789,273
|
3,713,931
|
0.400
|
0
|
1,578,049
|
1,211,225
|
0.43
|
0.43
|
0.41
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
2,065,407
|
4,484,065
|
0.406
|
0
|
1,782,124
|
283,283
|
0.14
|
0.14
|
0.14
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
5,730,177
|
0.412
|
0
|
2,049,578
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnY.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
2,701,997
|
3,663,815
|
0.205
|
0.004
|
1,039,987
|
1,662,010
|
0.62
|
0.62
|
0.55
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
1,852,364
|
1,542,520
|
0.202
|
0.004
|
844,512
|
1,007,852
|
0.54
|
0.54
|
0.50
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,930,847
|
2,679,158
|
0.190
|
0.005
|
980,460
|
950,387
|
0.49
|
0.49
|
0.46
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
1,001,605
|
740,947
|
0.185
|
0.005
|
809,420
|
192,184
|
0.19
|
0.19
|
0.19
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
5,545,200
|
6,053,034
|
0.184
|
0.004
|
1,443,031
|
4,102,169
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
0.64
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,168,999
|
2,846,209
|
0.202
|
0.002
|
1,057,343
|
1,111,656
|
0.51
|
0.51
|
0.47
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
2,635,003
|
8,590,994
|
0.198
|
0.002
|
2,102,608
|
532,396
|
0.20
|
0.20
|
0.20
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
2,789,273
|
3,713,931
|
0.218
|
0.001
|
1,199,550
|
1,589,723
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
0.52
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
2,065,407
|
4,484,065
|
0.216
|
0.001
|
1,343,428
|
721,979
|
0.35
|
0.35
|
0.34
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
5,730,177
|
0.220
|
0.001
|
1,581,073
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnS.lnR
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
2,701,997
|
3,663,815
|
0.066
|
0.078
|
952,244
|
1,749,754
|
0.65
|
0.65
|
0.57
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
1,852,364
|
1,542,520
|
0.061
|
0.082
|
959,484
|
892,880
|
0.48
|
0.48
|
0.45
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,930,847
|
2,679,158
|
0.059
|
0.083
|
972,938
|
957,909
|
0.50
|
0.50
|
0.46
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
1,001,605
|
740,947
|
0.056
|
0.086
|
944,457
|
57,148
|
0.06
|
0.06
|
0.06
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
5,545,200
|
6,053,034
|
0.056
|
0.082
|
1,102,624
|
4,442,576
|
0.80
|
0.80
|
0.68
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,168,999
|
2,846,209
|
0.057
|
0.077
|
981,287
|
1,187,713
|
0.55
|
0.55
|
0.50
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
2,635,003
|
8,590,994
|
0.052
|
0.085
|
1,170,912
|
1,464,092
|
0.56
|
0.56
|
0.51
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
2,789,273
|
3,713,931
|
0.054
|
0.077
|
1,000,231
|
1,789,043
|
0.64
|
0.64
|
0.57
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
2,065,407
|
4,484,065
|
0.045
|
0.093
|
1,242,346
|
823,061
|
0.40
|
0.40
|
0.38
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
5,730,177
|
0.048
|
0.084
|
1,427,834
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ricker
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2006
|
2,701,997
|
3,663,815
|
0.300
|
0
|
1,166,903
|
1,535,094
|
0.57
|
0.57
|
0.52
|
|
2012
|
2007
|
1,852,364
|
1,542,520
|
0.303
|
0
|
1,137,569
|
714,796
|
0.39
|
0.39
|
0.37
|
|
2013
|
2008
|
1,930,847
|
2,679,158
|
0.307
|
0
|
1,142,758
|
788,089
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.39
|
|
2014
|
2009
|
1,001,605
|
740,947
|
0.312
|
0
|
1,021,691
|
20,086
|
0.02
|
-0.02
|
0.02
|
|
2015
|
2010
|
5,545,200
|
6,053,034
|
0.314
|
0
|
1,453,279
|
4,091,921
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
0.64
|
|
2016
|
2011
|
2,168,999
|
2,846,209
|
0.303
|
0
|
1,058,229
|
1,110,770
|
0.51
|
0.51
|
0.47
|
|
2017
|
2012
|
2,635,003
|
8,590,994
|
0.309
|
0
|
1,526,764
|
1,108,240
|
0.42
|
0.42
|
0.40
|
|
2018
|
2013
|
2,789,273
|
3,713,931
|
0.308
|
0
|
1,038,601
|
1,750,672
|
0.63
|
0.63
|
0.56
|
|
2019
|
2014
|
2,065,407
|
4,484,065
|
0.314
|
0
|
1,627,946
|
437,461
|
0.21
|
0.21
|
0.21
|
|
2020
|
2015
|
NA
|
5,730,177
|
0.314
|
0
|
1,781,269
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


age.23
sibling
Below are model outputs using data from 1972
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2005
|
1,754,061
|
4,527,248
|
0.357
|
0
|
571,368
|
1,182,693
|
0.67
|
0.67
|
0.59
|
|
2012
|
2006
|
746,641
|
1,197,115
|
0.332
|
0
|
389,879
|
356,762
|
0.48
|
0.48
|
0.45
|
|
2013
|
2007
|
2,379,818
|
6,972,782
|
0.328
|
0
|
774,961
|
1,604,857
|
0.67
|
0.67
|
0.59
|
|
2014
|
2008
|
679,005
|
1,247,528
|
0.304
|
0
|
445,870
|
233,135
|
0.34
|
0.34
|
0.33
|
|
2015
|
2009
|
1,396,254
|
9,725,832
|
0.302
|
0
|
1,006,296
|
389,958
|
0.28
|
0.28
|
0.27
|
|
2016
|
2010
|
851,679
|
13,231,078
|
0.309
|
0
|
1,251,159
|
399,480
|
0.47
|
-0.47
|
0.44
|
|
2017
|
2011
|
491,950
|
2,573,729
|
0.304
|
0
|
542,461
|
50,511
|
0.10
|
-0.10
|
0.10
|
|
2018
|
2012
|
143,170
|
397,153
|
0.306
|
0
|
400,390
|
257,220
|
1.80
|
-1.80
|
1.06
|
|
2019
|
2013
|
32,085
|
38,269
|
0.312
|
0
|
367,746
|
335,660
|
10.46
|
-10.46
|
1.48
|
|
2020
|
2014
|
NA
|
71,251
|
0.320
|
0
|
357,737
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ln.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2005
|
1,754,061
|
4,527,248
|
0.527
|
0
|
548,811
|
1,205,250
|
0.69
|
0.69
|
0.60
|
|
2012
|
2006
|
746,641
|
1,197,115
|
0.526
|
0
|
292,730
|
453,911
|
0.61
|
0.61
|
0.55
|
|
2013
|
2007
|
2,379,818
|
6,972,782
|
0.515
|
0
|
731,258
|
1,648,561
|
0.69
|
0.69
|
0.61
|
|
2014
|
2008
|
679,005
|
1,247,528
|
0.522
|
0
|
316,034
|
362,970
|
0.53
|
0.53
|
0.49
|
|
2015
|
2009
|
1,396,254
|
9,725,832
|
0.515
|
0
|
933,312
|
462,942
|
0.33
|
0.33
|
0.32
|
|
2016
|
2010
|
851,679
|
13,231,078
|
0.527
|
0
|
1,119,489
|
267,810
|
0.31
|
-0.31
|
0.30
|
|
2017
|
2011
|
491,950
|
2,573,729
|
0.531
|
0
|
471,479
|
20,471
|
0.04
|
0.04
|
0.04
|
|
2018
|
2012
|
143,170
|
397,153
|
0.532
|
0
|
179,092
|
35,922
|
0.25
|
-0.25
|
0.25
|
|
2019
|
2013
|
32,085
|
38,269
|
0.539
|
0
|
52,380
|
20,295
|
0.63
|
-0.63
|
0.56
|
|
2020
|
2014
|
NA
|
71,251
|
0.579
|
0
|
68,613
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnY.sibling
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2005
|
1,754,061
|
4,527,248
|
0.323
|
0.000
|
297,217
|
1,456,844
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.69
|
|
2012
|
2006
|
746,641
|
1,197,115
|
0.298
|
0.000
|
231,868
|
514,773
|
0.69
|
0.69
|
0.60
|
|
2013
|
2007
|
2,379,818
|
6,972,782
|
0.281
|
0.001
|
402,779
|
1,977,039
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.69
|
|
2014
|
2008
|
679,005
|
1,247,528
|
0.271
|
0.001
|
254,098
|
424,907
|
0.63
|
0.63
|
0.56
|
|
2015
|
2009
|
1,396,254
|
9,725,832
|
0.260
|
0.001
|
552,312
|
843,941
|
0.60
|
0.60
|
0.54
|
|
2016
|
2010
|
851,679
|
13,231,078
|
0.267
|
0.001
|
780,714
|
70,965
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
|
2017
|
2011
|
491,950
|
2,573,729
|
0.275
|
0.000
|
301,398
|
190,552
|
0.39
|
0.39
|
0.37
|
|
2018
|
2012
|
143,170
|
397,153
|
0.272
|
0.000
|
251,852
|
108,682
|
0.76
|
-0.76
|
0.65
|
|
2019
|
2013
|
32,085
|
38,269
|
0.279
|
0.000
|
238,914
|
206,828
|
6.45
|
-6.45
|
1.42
|
|
2020
|
2014
|
NA
|
71,251
|
0.286
|
0.000
|
222,818
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


lnS.lnR
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2005
|
1,754,061
|
4,527,248
|
0.177
|
0.009
|
269,134
|
1,484,927
|
0.85
|
0.85
|
0.70
|
|
2012
|
2006
|
746,641
|
1,197,115
|
0.154
|
0.013
|
332,702
|
413,939
|
0.55
|
0.55
|
0.51
|
|
2013
|
2007
|
2,379,818
|
6,972,782
|
0.152
|
0.012
|
324,797
|
2,055,021
|
0.86
|
0.86
|
0.71
|
|
2014
|
2008
|
679,005
|
1,247,528
|
0.136
|
0.015
|
340,259
|
338,746
|
0.50
|
0.50
|
0.46
|
|
2015
|
2009
|
1,396,254
|
9,725,832
|
0.134
|
0.015
|
312,805
|
1,083,449
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
0.66
|
|
2016
|
2010
|
851,679
|
13,231,078
|
0.121
|
0.018
|
448,519
|
403,160
|
0.47
|
0.47
|
0.44
|
|
2017
|
2011
|
491,950
|
2,573,729
|
0.124
|
0.016
|
331,741
|
160,209
|
0.33
|
0.33
|
0.31
|
|
2018
|
2012
|
143,170
|
397,153
|
0.122
|
0.015
|
458,212
|
315,042
|
2.20
|
-2.20
|
1.14
|
|
2019
|
2013
|
32,085
|
38,269
|
0.115
|
0.017
|
314,153
|
282,067
|
8.79
|
-8.79
|
1.46
|
|
2020
|
2014
|
NA
|
71,251
|
0.119
|
0.015
|
439,788
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|


ricker
|
Return Yr
|
Brood Yr
|
Observed Return
|
Sibling Return
|
R Sq
|
P-val
|
Forecasted Return
|
AD
|
APE
|
PE
|
AAPE
|
|
2011
|
2005
|
1,754,061
|
4,527,248
|
0.087
|
0.053
|
291,607
|
1,462,454
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.69
|
|
2012
|
2006
|
746,641
|
1,197,115
|
0.096
|
0.041
|
385,560
|
361,081
|
0.48
|
0.48
|
0.45
|
|
2013
|
2007
|
2,379,818
|
6,972,782
|
0.101
|
0.035
|
369,915
|
2,009,903
|
0.84
|
0.84
|
0.70
|
|
2014
|
2008
|
679,005
|
1,247,528
|
0.106
|
0.030
|
388,301
|
290,703
|
0.43
|
0.43
|
0.40
|
|
2015
|
2009
|
1,396,254
|
9,725,832
|
0.110
|
0.025
|
341,619
|
1,054,634
|
0.76
|
0.76
|
0.65
|
|
2016
|
2010
|
851,679
|
13,231,078
|
0.118
|
0.020
|
541,218
|
310,461
|
0.36
|
0.36
|
0.35
|
|
2017
|
2011
|
491,950
|
2,573,729
|
0.119
|
0.018
|
362,786
|
129,164
|
0.26
|
0.26
|
0.26
|
|
2018
|
2012
|
143,170
|
397,153
|
0.123
|
0.015
|
548,920
|
405,750
|
2.83
|
-2.83
|
1.23
|
|
2019
|
2013
|
32,085
|
38,269
|
0.117
|
0.016
|
332,663
|
300,577
|
9.37
|
-9.37
|
1.46
|
|
2020
|
2014
|
NA
|
71,251
|
0.091
|
0.030
|
520,773
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|

