- All 435 House seats (every two years)
- 35 (roughly, 1/3) of the Senate: elected to 6 year terms.
- All leading indicators point to Democrats re-taking House.
- Senate less likely to be won by Dems: many more Dems on the ballot.
- 35 state gubernatorial contests: 26 R and 9 D.
- Just two Dem doubtfuls, but nine Rep doubtfuls.
- Florida!
25 October 2018
Midterms
Dow Jones vs All Ords, GFC low = 100
Real change, GDP per capita
Unemployment rates
But Trump’s approval…
Presidential approval & midterm seat loss
Primary turnout \(\rightarrow\) high levels of Democratic enthusiasm
Women candidates - our explainer at ussc.edu.au/analysis
Explosion in number of women candidates
Where are women candidates running?
Generic ballot (poll averaging), from fivethirtyeight.com
But gerrymandering?
Impeachment prospects
- Dems are likely to impeach if they win the House
- Trump is likely to survive trial in the Senate: requires 2/3 vote for removal from office
- If so, this would make Trump the 3rd president to be impeached and tried in the Senate
- No president has ever been removed from office.