2016 Primary Election Results

Read 2016 primary election results data.

library(knitr)
library(kableExtra)# manipulate table styles
suppressMessages(library(tidyverse))
pr_df <- read.csv(file="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/che10vek/Data-607-Assignments/master/Primary_Results2016%20(1).csv", header=TRUE, sep=",")
head(pr_df)
##     state state_abbreviation  county fips    party       candidate votes
## 1 Alabama                 AL Autauga 1001 Democrat  Bernie Sanders   544
## 2 Alabama                 AL Autauga 1001 Democrat Hillary Clinton  2387
## 3 Alabama                 AL Baldwin 1003 Democrat  Bernie Sanders  2694
## 4 Alabama                 AL Baldwin 1003 Democrat Hillary Clinton  5290
## 5 Alabama                 AL Barbour 1005 Democrat  Bernie Sanders   222
## 6 Alabama                 AL Barbour 1005 Democrat Hillary Clinton  2567
##   fraction_votes
## 1          0.182
## 2          0.800
## 3          0.329
## 4          0.647
## 5          0.078
## 6          0.906
dim(pr_df)
## [1] 24611     8

Spreading the dataset to move candidate votes and fraction data from rows to columns. The code was adapted from the following help page: https://community.rstudio.com/t/spread-with-multiple-value-columns/5378

pr_df$party <- NULL
pr_df_wide <- pr_df %>%
    gather(variable, value, -(state:candidate)) %>%
    unite(temp, candidate, variable) %>%
    spread(temp, value)
head(pr_df_wide)
##     state state_abbreviation  county fips  No Preference_fraction_votes
## 1 Alabama                 AL Autauga 1001                            NA
## 2 Alabama                 AL Baldwin 1003                            NA
## 3 Alabama                 AL Barbour 1005                            NA
## 4 Alabama                 AL    Bibb 1007                            NA
## 5 Alabama                 AL  Blount 1009                            NA
## 6 Alabama                 AL Bullock 1011                            NA
##    No Preference_votes  Uncommitted_fraction_votes  Uncommitted_votes
## 1                   NA                          NA                 NA
## 2                   NA                          NA                 NA
## 3                   NA                          NA                 NA
## 4                   NA                          NA                 NA
## 5                   NA                          NA                 NA
## 6                   NA                          NA                 NA
##   Ben Carson_fraction_votes Ben Carson_votes Bernie Sanders_fraction_votes
## 1                     0.146             1764                         0.182
## 2                     0.084             4221                         0.329
## 3                     0.122              417                         0.078
## 4                     0.099              393                         0.197
## 5                     0.100             1523                         0.386
## 6                     0.085               47                         0.066
##   Bernie Sanders_votes Carly Fiorina_fraction_votes Carly Fiorina_votes
## 1                  544                           NA                  NA
## 2                 2694                           NA                  NA
## 3                  222                           NA                  NA
## 4                  246                           NA                  NA
## 5                  395                           NA                  NA
## 6                  178                           NA                  NA
##   Chris Christie_fraction_votes Chris Christie_votes
## 1                            NA                   NA
## 2                            NA                   NA
## 3                            NA                   NA
## 4                            NA                   NA
## 5                            NA                   NA
## 6                            NA                   NA
##   Donald Trump_fraction_votes Donald Trump_votes
## 1                       0.445               5387
## 2                       0.469              23618
## 3                       0.501               1710
## 4                       0.494               1959
## 5                       0.487               7390
## 6                       0.565                313
##   Hillary Clinton_fraction_votes Hillary Clinton_votes
## 1                          0.800                  2387
## 2                          0.647                  5290
## 3                          0.906                  2567
## 4                          0.755                   942
## 5                          0.551                   564
## 6                          0.913                  2451
##   Jeb Bush_fraction_votes Jeb Bush_votes John Kasich_fraction_votes
## 1                      NA             NA                      0.035
## 2                      NA             NA                      0.059
## 3                      NA             NA                      0.036
## 4                      NA             NA                      0.021
## 5                      NA             NA                      0.022
## 6                      NA             NA                      0.042
##   John Kasich_votes Marco Rubio_fraction_votes Marco Rubio_votes
## 1               421                      0.148              1785
## 2              2987                      0.193              9703
## 3               123                      0.146               498
## 4                84                      0.112               444
## 5               337                      0.122              1843
## 6                23                      0.116                64
##   Martin O'Malley_fraction_votes Martin O'Malley_votes
## 1                             NA                    NA
## 2                             NA                    NA
## 3                             NA                    NA
## 4                             NA                    NA
## 5                             NA                    NA
## 6                             NA                    NA
##   Mike Huckabee_fraction_votes Mike Huckabee_votes
## 1                           NA                  NA
## 2                           NA                  NA
## 3                           NA                  NA
## 4                           NA                  NA
## 5                           NA                  NA
## 6                           NA                  NA
##   Rand Paul_fraction_votes Rand Paul_votes Rick Santorum_fraction_votes
## 1                       NA              NA                           NA
## 2                       NA              NA                           NA
## 3                       NA              NA                           NA
## 4                       NA              NA                           NA
## 5                       NA              NA                           NA
## 6                       NA              NA                           NA
##   Rick Santorum_votes Ted Cruz_fraction_votes Ted Cruz_votes
## 1                  NA                   0.205           2482
## 2                  NA                   0.170           8571
## 3                  NA                   0.179            609
## 4                  NA                   0.255           1011
## 5                  NA                   0.244           3698
## 6                  NA                   0.170             94
dim(pr_df_wide)
## [1] 4217   36

Now let’s create a new dataframe with only the data for 3 candidates we are intersted in: Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump.

new_pr_df <- data.frame(pr_df_wide$state, pr_df_wide$state_abbreviation, pr_df_wide$county, pr_df_wide$fips, pr_df_wide$`Bernie Sanders_fraction_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Bernie Sanders_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Hillary Clinton_fraction_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Hillary Clinton_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Donald Trump_fraction_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Donald Trump_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Ted Cruz_fraction_votes`, pr_df_wide$`Ted Cruz_votes`)
names(new_pr_df) <- c("state", "state_abbr", "county", "fips", "sanders fraction votes", "sanders votes", "clinton fraction votes", "clinton votes","trump fraction votes", "trump votes", "cruz fraction votes", "cruz votes")
head(new_pr_df)
##     state state_abbr  county fips sanders fraction votes sanders votes
## 1 Alabama         AL Autauga 1001                  0.182           544
## 2 Alabama         AL Baldwin 1003                  0.329          2694
## 3 Alabama         AL Barbour 1005                  0.078           222
## 4 Alabama         AL    Bibb 1007                  0.197           246
## 5 Alabama         AL  Blount 1009                  0.386           395
## 6 Alabama         AL Bullock 1011                  0.066           178
##   clinton fraction votes clinton votes trump fraction votes trump votes
## 1                  0.800          2387                0.445        5387
## 2                  0.647          5290                0.469       23618
## 3                  0.906          2567                0.501        1710
## 4                  0.755           942                0.494        1959
## 5                  0.551           564                0.487        7390
## 6                  0.913          2451                0.565         313
##   cruz fraction votes cruz votes
## 1               0.205       2482
## 2               0.170       8571
## 3               0.179        609
## 4               0.255       1011
## 5               0.244       3698
## 6               0.170         94
dim(new_pr_df)
## [1] 4217   12
write.csv(new_pr_df,'new_pr_df.csv')

Demographic Dataset

The dataset contains several main files. The data may be downloaded from the url: https://www.kaggle.com/benhamner/2016-us-election

Read the data

facts <- read.csv(file="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/bsosnovski/Project3/master/County_Facts.csv", header=TRUE, sep=",")
glimpse(facts, width = getOption("width"))
## Observations: 3,195
## Variables: 54
## $ fips               <int> 0, 1000, 1001, 1003, 1005, 1007, 1009, 1011...
## $ area_name          <fct> United States, Alabama, Autauga County, Bal...
## $ state_abbreviation <fct> , , AL, AL, AL, AL, AL, AL, AL, AL, AL, AL,...
## $ PST045214          <int> 318857056, 4849377, 55395, 200111, 26887, 2...
## $ PST040210          <int> 308758105, 4780127, 54571, 182265, 27457, 2...
## $ PST120214          <dbl> 3.3, 1.4, 1.5, 9.8, -2.1, -1.8, 0.7, -1.4, ...
## $ POP010210          <int> 308745538, 4779736, 54571, 182265, 27457, 2...
## $ AGE135214          <dbl> 6.2, 6.1, 6.0, 5.6, 5.7, 5.3, 6.1, 6.3, 6.1...
## $ AGE295214          <dbl> 23.1, 22.8, 25.2, 22.2, 21.2, 21.0, 23.6, 2...
## $ AGE775214          <dbl> 14.5, 15.3, 13.8, 18.7, 16.5, 14.8, 17.0, 1...
## $ SEX255214          <dbl> 50.8, 51.5, 51.4, 51.2, 46.6, 45.9, 50.5, 4...
## $ RHI125214          <dbl> 77.4, 69.7, 77.9, 87.1, 50.2, 76.3, 96.0, 2...
## $ RHI225214          <dbl> 13.2, 26.7, 18.7, 9.6, 47.6, 22.1, 1.8, 70....
## $ RHI325214          <dbl> 1.2, 0.7, 0.5, 0.7, 0.6, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 0.4...
## $ RHI425214          <dbl> 5.4, 1.3, 1.1, 0.9, 0.5, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.9...
## $ RHI525214          <dbl> 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.7, 0.0...
## $ RHI625214          <dbl> 2.5, 1.5, 1.8, 1.6, 0.9, 0.9, 1.2, 1.1, 0.8...
## $ RHI725214          <dbl> 17.4, 4.1, 2.7, 4.6, 4.5, 2.1, 8.7, 7.5, 1....
## $ RHI825214          <dbl> 62.1, 66.2, 75.6, 83.0, 46.6, 74.5, 87.8, 2...
## $ POP715213          <dbl> 84.9, 85.0, 85.0, 82.1, 84.8, 86.6, 88.7, 8...
## $ POP645213          <dbl> 12.9, 3.5, 1.6, 3.6, 2.9, 1.2, 4.3, 5.4, 0....
## $ POP815213          <dbl> 20.7, 5.2, 3.5, 5.5, 5.0, 2.1, 7.3, 5.2, 1....
## $ EDU635213          <dbl> 86.0, 83.1, 85.6, 89.1, 73.7, 77.5, 77.0, 6...
## $ EDU685213          <dbl> 28.8, 22.6, 20.9, 27.7, 13.4, 12.1, 12.1, 1...
## $ VET605213          <int> 21263779, 388865, 5922, 19346, 2120, 1327, ...
## $ LFE305213          <dbl> 25.5, 24.2, 26.2, 25.9, 24.6, 27.6, 33.9, 2...
## $ HSG010214          <int> 133957180, 2207912, 22751, 107374, 11799, 8...
## $ HSG445213          <dbl> 64.9, 69.7, 76.8, 72.6, 67.7, 79.0, 81.0, 7...
## $ HSG096213          <dbl> 26.0, 15.9, 8.3, 24.4, 10.6, 7.3, 4.5, 8.7,...
## $ HSG495213          <int> 176700, 122500, 136200, 168600, 89200, 9050...
## $ HSD410213          <int> 115610216, 1838683, 20071, 73283, 9200, 709...
## $ HSD310213          <dbl> 2.63, 2.55, 2.71, 2.52, 2.66, 3.03, 2.70, 2...
## $ INC910213          <int> 28155, 23680, 24571, 26766, 16829, 17427, 2...
## $ INC110213          <int> 53046, 43253, 53682, 50221, 32911, 36447, 4...
## $ PVY020213          <dbl> 15.4, 18.6, 12.1, 13.9, 26.7, 18.1, 15.8, 2...
## $ BZA010213          <int> 7488353, 97578, 817, 4871, 464, 275, 660, 1...
## $ BZA110213          <int> 118266253, 1603100, 10120, 54988, 6611, 314...
## $ BZA115213          <dbl> 2.0, 1.1, 2.1, 3.7, -5.6, 7.5, 3.4, 0.0, 2....
## $ NES010213          <int> 23005620, 311578, 2947, 16508, 1546, 1126, ...
## $ SBO001207          <int> 27092908, 382350, 4067, 19035, 1667, 1385, ...
## $ SBO315207          <dbl> 7.1, 14.8, 15.2, 2.7, 0.0, 14.9, 0.0, 0.0, ...
## $ SBO115207          <dbl> 0.9, 0.8, 0.0, 0.4, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0...
## $ SBO215207          <dbl> 5.7, 1.8, 1.3, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3...
## $ SBO515207          <dbl> 0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0...
## $ SBO415207          <dbl> 8.3, 1.2, 0.7, 1.3, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0...
## $ SBO015207          <dbl> 28.8, 28.1, 31.7, 27.3, 27.0, 0.0, 23.2, 38...
## $ MAN450207          <dbl> 5319456312, 112858843, 0, 1410273, 0, 0, 34...
## $ WTN220207          <dbl> 4174286516, 52252752, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 567...
## $ RTN130207          <dbl> 3917663456, 57344851, 598175, 2966489, 1883...
## $ RTN131207          <int> 12990, 12364, 12003, 17166, 6334, 5804, 562...
## $ AFN120207          <int> 613795732, 6426342, 88157, 436955, 0, 10757...
## $ BPS030214          <int> 1046363, 13369, 131, 1384, 8, 19, 3, 1, 2, ...
## $ LND110210          <dbl> 3531905.43, 50645.33, 594.44, 1589.78, 884....
## $ POP060210          <dbl> 87.4, 94.4, 91.8, 114.6, 31.0, 36.8, 88.9, ...
headers <- read.csv(file="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/bsosnovski/Project3/master/Headers.csv", header=TRUE, sep=",", stringsAsFactors = F)
glimpse(headers, width = getOption("width"))
## Observations: 51
## Variables: 2
## $ column_name <chr> "PST045214", "PST040210", "PST120214", "POP010210"...
## $ description <chr> "Population, 2014 estimate", "Population, 2010 (Ap...

Tidying the data

The dataset contains rows with total figures for each state and for the country. Because we can use the summary function to obtains these figures, and also to facilitate the data reading, we filter these rows out. To do so, we note that such rows have the variable state_abbreviation with blanks.

facts <- facts %>% filter(state_abbreviation!="")
kable(head(facts))%>% kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed"))
fips area_name state_abbreviation PST045214 PST040210 PST120214 POP010210 AGE135214 AGE295214 AGE775214 SEX255214 RHI125214 RHI225214 RHI325214 RHI425214 RHI525214 RHI625214 RHI725214 RHI825214 POP715213 POP645213 POP815213 EDU635213 EDU685213 VET605213 LFE305213 HSG010214 HSG445213 HSG096213 HSG495213 HSD410213 HSD310213 INC910213 INC110213 PVY020213 BZA010213 BZA110213 BZA115213 NES010213 SBO001207 SBO315207 SBO115207 SBO215207 SBO515207 SBO415207 SBO015207 MAN450207 WTN220207 RTN130207 RTN131207 AFN120207 BPS030214 LND110210 POP060210
1001 Autauga County AL 55395 54571 1.5 54571 6.0 25.2 13.8 51.4 77.9 18.7 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.8 2.7 75.6 85.0 1.6 3.5 85.6 20.9 5922 26.2 22751 76.8 8.3 136200 20071 2.71 24571 53682 12.1 817 10120 2.1 2947 4067 15.2 0.0 1.3 0 0.7 31.7 0 0 598175 12003 88157 131 594.44 91.8
1003 Baldwin County AL 200111 182265 9.8 182265 5.6 22.2 18.7 51.2 87.1 9.6 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.6 4.6 83.0 82.1 3.6 5.5 89.1 27.7 19346 25.9 107374 72.6 24.4 168600 73283 2.52 26766 50221 13.9 4871 54988 3.7 16508 19035 2.7 0.4 1.0 0 1.3 27.3 1410273 0 2966489 17166 436955 1384 1589.78 114.6
1005 Barbour County AL 26887 27457 -2.1 27457 5.7 21.2 16.5 46.6 50.2 47.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.9 4.5 46.6 84.8 2.9 5.0 73.7 13.4 2120 24.6 11799 67.7 10.6 89200 9200 2.66 16829 32911 26.7 464 6611 -5.6 1546 1667 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 27.0 0 0 188337 6334 0 8 884.88 31.0
1007 Bibb County AL 22506 22919 -1.8 22915 5.3 21.0 14.8 45.9 76.3 22.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 2.1 74.5 86.6 1.2 2.1 77.5 12.1 1327 27.6 8978 79.0 7.3 90500 7091 3.03 17427 36447 18.1 275 3145 7.5 1126 1385 14.9 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 124707 5804 10757 19 622.58 36.8
1009 Blount County AL 57719 57322 0.7 57322 6.1 23.6 17.0 50.5 96.0 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 8.7 87.8 88.7 4.3 7.3 77.0 12.1 4540 33.9 23826 81.0 4.5 117100 21108 2.70 20730 44145 15.8 660 6798 3.4 3563 4458 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 23.2 341544 0 319700 5622 20941 3 644.78 88.9
1011 Bullock County AL 10764 10915 -1.4 10914 6.3 21.4 14.9 45.3 26.9 70.1 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.1 7.5 22.1 84.7 5.4 5.2 67.8 12.5 636 26.9 4461 74.3 8.7 70600 3741 2.73 18628 32033 21.6 112 0 0.0 470 417 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 38.8 0 0 43810 3995 3670 1 622.81 17.5

The file Headers.csv contains the description to what some of the variables are. We replace the codes in the headers of the data accordingly.

# Function that matches the code in the dataframe column
# and replace it with dictionary value
new.headers <- function(headers,facts){
        n <- nrow(headers)
        for (i in seq(n)){
                col.Ind <- which(colnames(facts)==headers[i,1])
                colnames(facts)[col.Ind] <- headers[i,2]
        }
        return(facts)
}

facts2 <- new.headers(headers,facts)
kable(head(facts2))%>% kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed"))
fips area_name state_abbreviation Population, 2014 estimate Population, 2010 (April 1) estimates base Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 Population, 2010 Persons under 5 years, percent, 2014 Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014 Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014 Female persons, percent, 2014 White alone, percent, 2014 Black or African American alone, percent, 2014 American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014 Asian alone, percent, 2014 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014 Two or More Races, percent, 2014 Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 Living in same house 1 year & over, percent, 2009-2013 Foreign born persons, percent, 2009-2013 Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5+, 2009-2013 High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 Bachelor’s degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 Veterans, 2009-2013 Mean travel time to work (minutes), workers age 16+, 2009-2013 Housing units, 2014 Homeownership rate, 2009-2013 Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2009-2013 Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2009-2013 Households, 2009-2013 Persons per household, 2009-2013 Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013 Median household income, 2009-2013 Persons below poverty level, percent, 2009-2013 Private nonfarm establishments, 2013 Private nonfarm employment, 2013 Private nonfarm employment, percent change, 2012-2013 Nonemployer establishments, 2013 Total number of firms, 2007 Black-owned firms, percent, 2007 American Indian- and Alaska Native-owned firms, percent, 2007 Asian-owned firms, percent, 2007 Native Hawaiian- and Other Pacific Islander-owned firms, percent, 2007 Hispanic-owned firms, percent, 2007 Women-owned firms, percent, 2007 Manufacturers shipments, 2007 ($1,000) Merchant wholesaler sales, 2007 ($1,000) Retail sales, 2007 ($1,000) Retail sales per capita, 2007 Accommodation and food services sales, 2007 ($1,000) Building permits, 2014 Land area in square miles, 2010 Population per square mile, 2010
1001 Autauga County AL 55395 54571 1.5 54571 6.0 25.2 13.8 51.4 77.9 18.7 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.8 2.7 75.6 85.0 1.6 3.5 85.6 20.9 5922 26.2 22751 76.8 8.3 136200 20071 2.71 24571 53682 12.1 817 10120 2.1 2947 4067 15.2 0.0 1.3 0 0.7 31.7 0 0 598175 12003 88157 131 594.44 91.8
1003 Baldwin County AL 200111 182265 9.8 182265 5.6 22.2 18.7 51.2 87.1 9.6 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.6 4.6 83.0 82.1 3.6 5.5 89.1 27.7 19346 25.9 107374 72.6 24.4 168600 73283 2.52 26766 50221 13.9 4871 54988 3.7 16508 19035 2.7 0.4 1.0 0 1.3 27.3 1410273 0 2966489 17166 436955 1384 1589.78 114.6
1005 Barbour County AL 26887 27457 -2.1 27457 5.7 21.2 16.5 46.6 50.2 47.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.9 4.5 46.6 84.8 2.9 5.0 73.7 13.4 2120 24.6 11799 67.7 10.6 89200 9200 2.66 16829 32911 26.7 464 6611 -5.6 1546 1667 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 27.0 0 0 188337 6334 0 8 884.88 31.0
1007 Bibb County AL 22506 22919 -1.8 22915 5.3 21.0 14.8 45.9 76.3 22.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 2.1 74.5 86.6 1.2 2.1 77.5 12.1 1327 27.6 8978 79.0 7.3 90500 7091 3.03 17427 36447 18.1 275 3145 7.5 1126 1385 14.9 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 124707 5804 10757 19 622.58 36.8
1009 Blount County AL 57719 57322 0.7 57322 6.1 23.6 17.0 50.5 96.0 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 8.7 87.8 88.7 4.3 7.3 77.0 12.1 4540 33.9 23826 81.0 4.5 117100 21108 2.70 20730 44145 15.8 660 6798 3.4 3563 4458 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 23.2 341544 0 319700 5622 20941 3 644.78 88.9
1011 Bullock County AL 10764 10915 -1.4 10914 6.3 21.4 14.9 45.3 26.9 70.1 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.1 7.5 22.1 84.7 5.4 5.2 67.8 12.5 636 26.9 4461 74.3 8.7 70600 3741 2.73 18628 32033 21.6 112 0 0.0 470 417 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 38.8 0 0 43810 3995 3670 1 622.81 17.5

Merging the demographic data and the primary election results data.

Determine what keys will foster the optimal join

Left join by county and state

facts2$county <- sapply(facts2$area_name , function(x) {
  str_replace_all(x, " County" , "")
})

typeof(facts2$county) #Data type of county in facts2
## [1] "character"
typeof(new_pr_df$county) #Data type of county in new_pr_df
## [1] "integer"
new_pr_df$county <- as.character(new_pr_df$county) # Convert county in new_pr_df to character

typeof(facts2$state_abbreviation) #Data type of the state abbreviation in facts2
## [1] "integer"
typeof(new_pr_df$state_abbr)  #Data type of the state abbreviation in new_pr_df
## [1] "integer"
facts2$state_abbreviation <- as.character(facts2$state_abbreviation) # Convert county in new_pr_df to character
new_pr_df$state_abbr <- as.character(new_pr_df$state_abbr) # Convert county in new_pr_df to character

#Trim white space around character data
facts2$state_abbreviation <- trimws(facts2$state_abbreviation)
new_pr_df$state_abbr <- trimws(new_pr_df$state_abbr)
facts2$county <- trimws(facts2$county)
new_pr_df$county <- trimws(new_pr_df$county)

#Left join by count and state abbreviation
complete_data <- left_join(new_pr_df, facts2, by = c("county", "state_abbr" = "state_abbreviation" ))

Dimensions of merged data and original data.

dim(new_pr_df) # Dimension of primary election data
## [1] 4217   12
dim(facts2) # Dimensions of the demographic data, which is organized on the county level. 
## [1] 3143   55
dim(complete_data) # Dimensions of the two datasets merged by an inner join, which is a left join that creates a dataset that only contains exact matches across the two data frame.
## [1] 4217   65
unique(complete_data$state_abbr) # Listed here are the states that were accurately joined. 
##  [1] "AL" "AK" "AZ" "AR" "CA" "CO" "CT" "DE" "FL" "GA" "HI" "ID" "IL" "IN"
## [15] "IA" "KS" "KY" "LA" "ME" "MD" "MA" "MI" "MS" "MO" "MT" "NE" "NV" "NH"
## [29] "NJ" "NM" "NY" "NC" "ND" "OH" "OK" "OR" "PA" "RI" "SC" "SD" "TN" "TX"
## [43] "UT" "VT" "VA" "WA" "WV" "WI" "WY"

Where did the two data frames not match (i.e. the rows with NA values).

anyNA(complete_data) #There are missing values
## [1] TRUE
#Create a subset of the merged data that only contains those rows where there are NA values.
df_did_not_match <- subset(complete_data, is.na(complete_data$area_name))
dim(df_did_not_match) #There are 1491 rows where the primary election data did not match the demographic data
## [1] 1491   65
df_did_not_match$fips_length <- sapply(df_did_not_match$fips.x, nchar)
unique(df_did_not_match$fips_length) #In the df_did_not_match subset, there are FIPS code 4, 5, and 8 digits in length. 
## [1] 8 4 5
count((subset(df_did_not_match, fips_length==4))) #Number of fips codes that are 4 digits long
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##       n
##   <int>
## 1     1
count((subset(df_did_not_match, fips_length==5))) #Number of fips codes that are 5 digits long
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##       n
##   <int>
## 1   121
count((subset(df_did_not_match, fips_length==8))) #Number of fips codes that are 8 digits long
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##       n
##   <int>
## 1  1369
unique(df_did_not_match$state) #States that did not properly match. 
##  [1] Alaska        Arkansas      Connecticut   Idaho         Illinois     
##  [6] Kansas        Kentucky      Louisiana     Maine         Maryland     
## [11] Massachusetts Mississippi   Missouri      New Mexico    New York     
## [16] North Dakota  Oklahoma      Rhode Island  South Dakota  Texas        
## [21] Vermont       Virginia      Wyoming      
## 49 Levels: Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California ... Wyoming

Left join by fips code. As shown below, this merge leads to better results. Rather than 1491 rows not matching as was the case when joining by the state and county, using the FIPS code as join by key leads to 1419 rows to not match. On top of this, when joining by the FIPS code a mere 11 states’ primary election results do not accurately match.

complete_data <- left_join(new_pr_df, facts2, by = c("fips"))

#### Dimensions of merged data and original data.

dim(new_pr_df) # Dimension of primary election data
## [1] 4217   12
dim(facts2) # Dimensions of the demographic data, which is organized on the county level. 
## [1] 3143   55
dim(complete_data) # Dimensions of the two datasets merged by an inner join, which is a left join that creates a dataset that only contains exact matches across the two data frame.
## [1] 4217   66
unique(complete_data$state_abbr) # Listed here are the states that were accurately joined. 
##  [1] "AL" "AK" "AZ" "AR" "CA" "CO" "CT" "DE" "FL" "GA" "HI" "ID" "IL" "IN"
## [15] "IA" "KS" "KY" "LA" "ME" "MD" "MA" "MI" "MS" "MO" "MT" "NE" "NV" "NH"
## [29] "NJ" "NM" "NY" "NC" "ND" "OH" "OK" "OR" "PA" "RI" "SC" "SD" "TN" "TX"
## [43] "UT" "VT" "VA" "WA" "WV" "WI" "WY"
#### Where did the two data frames not match (i.e. the rows with NA values).

anyNA(complete_data) #There are missing values
## [1] TRUE
#Create a subset of the merged data that only contains those rows where there are NA values.
df_did_not_match <- subset(complete_data, is.na(complete_data$area_name))
dim(df_did_not_match) #There are 1419 rows where the primary election data did not match the demographic data. This is compared to the 1491 rows that did not match when using state and county names. 
## [1] 1419   66
df_did_not_match$fips_length <- sapply(df_did_not_match$fips, nchar)
unique(df_did_not_match$fips_length) #In the df_did_not_match subset, are only FIPS code 8 digits in length and observations without a FIPS code.
## [1]  8 NA
count((subset(df_did_not_match, fips_length==4))) #Number of fips codes that are 4 digits long
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##       n
##   <int>
## 1     0
count((subset(df_did_not_match, fips_length==5))) #Number of fips codes that are 5 digits long
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##       n
##   <int>
## 1     0
count((subset(df_did_not_match, fips_length==8))) #Number of fips codes that are 8 digits long
## # A tibble: 1 x 1
##       n
##   <int>
## 1  1409
unique(df_did_not_match$state) 
##  [1] Alaska        Connecticut   Illinois      Kansas        Maine        
##  [6] Massachusetts New Hampshire North Dakota  Rhode Island  Vermont      
## [11] Wyoming      
## 49 Levels: Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California ... Wyoming

What problem are we facing here?

The election data (new_pr_df) is organized on the basis of towns and cities for many states, while the demographic data we are using is solely organized on the basis of counties. The FIPS code only refers to counties, so for those states that are not organized by county, they have a code in the FIPS code column that is not actually a FIPS code.

Take the case of Connecticut (CT), for instance. Connecticut has a mere 8 counties in reality. However, in the primary election data, new_pr_df, there are 169 observations. In the column labeled county for the state of Connecticut, the names listed do not refer to county names; rather, they refer to town and city names. While each of these towns and cities are in a county and a can be assigned to a county, neither the new_pr_df or the facts2 data frames contain the necessary information to do this.

For the analysis we would like to conduct, these 11 states that are not organized on a county basis can be ignored. Moving forward, we will use the data below.

For the analysis of this data, we use the following data frame, created by an inner join by FIPS codes.

complete_data <- inner_join(new_pr_df, facts2, by = c("fips"))
dim(complete_data) # 2798 counties
## [1] 2798   66
unique(complete_data$state) #40 states 
##  [1] Alabama        Arizona        Arkansas       California    
##  [5] Colorado       Delaware       Florida        Georgia       
##  [9] Hawaii         Idaho          Illinois       Indiana       
## [13] Iowa           Kentucky       Louisiana      Maryland      
## [17] Michigan       Mississippi    Missouri       Montana       
## [21] Nebraska       Nevada         New Jersey     New Mexico    
## [25] New York       North Carolina Ohio           Oklahoma      
## [29] Oregon         Pennsylvania   South Carolina South Dakota  
## [33] Tennessee      Texas          Utah           Virginia      
## [37] Washington     West Virginia  Wisconsin      Wyoming       
## 49 Levels: Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California ... Wyoming
write.csv(complete_data, "complete_data.csv")

trump_data <- complete_data %>% filter(`trump votes`> 0)  
write.csv(trump_data, "trump_data.csv")

Analysis on votes gained by Trump and Hilary

Let’s do a Backward elimination process to find the relationship of demographic metrics on Votes gained by Trump and Hilary. Backward elimination is the process of removing the metrics which are less statisically significant to a particular target metric. The idea here is that the metrics having less p-value(significance) has high co-relation to the target metrics. Once this is done, we will look at those metrics which are having less P-value(high significance)

First, we will do it for Trump,

Target metric : Votes gained by Trump metrics Used : Since there are lot of demographic metrics in the data set, we will use some possible metrics by doing conscious judgment.

  • Persons under 5 years, percent, 2014
  • Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014
  • Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014
  • Female persons, percent, 2014
  • White alone, percent, 2014
  • Black or African American alone, percent, 2014
  • American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014
  • Asian alone, percent, 2014
  • Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014
  • Two or More Races, percent, 2014
  • Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014
  • White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014
  • Households, 2009-2013
  • Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013
  • Retail sales per capita, 2007
trump_data <- complete_data %>% filter(`trump votes`> 0 )  %>% select("sanders fraction votes","sanders votes","clinton fraction votes","clinton votes","trump fraction votes","trump votes","cruz fraction votes","cruz votes", "Persons under 5 years, percent, 2014","Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014","Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014","Female persons, percent, 2014","White alone, percent, 2014","Black or African American alone, percent, 2014","American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014","Asian alone, percent, 2014","Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014","Two or More Races, percent, 2014","Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014","White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014","Households, 2009-2013" , "Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013" , "Retail sales per capita, 2007")


print("Trump analysis..")
## [1] "Trump analysis.."
full_model <- lm(`trump votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`+`Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`+`Female persons, percent, 2014`+`White alone, percent, 2014`+`Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`+`American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`+`Asian alone, percent, 2014`+`Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`+`Two or More Races, percent, 2014`+ `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + `Retail sales per capita, 2007`  , data= trump_data)
summary(full_model)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = `trump votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + `Female persons, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, percent, 2014` + `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `Households, 2009-2013` + 
##     `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`, data = trump_data)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
## -65821  -1580   -446    637  70362 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                           -5.682e+04
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               -9.272e+00
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            -3.741e+01
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        6.134e+01
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1.071e+03
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       5.048e+02
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               4.964e+02
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           3.362e+02
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     -1.291e+02
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     8.235e+02
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   -5.522e+02
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  -5.584e+02
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                7.594e-02
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1.923e-01
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1.044e-01
##                                                                       Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                            1.353e+05
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                4.537e+01
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             3.358e+01
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        5.133e+01
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1.359e+03
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1.353e+03
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1.353e+03
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1.354e+03
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`      1.395e+03
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1.355e+03
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1.463e+02
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1.536e+02
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1.050e-03
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  2.324e-02
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1.959e-02
##                                                                       t value
## (Intercept)                                                            -0.420
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                -0.204
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             -1.114
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                         1.195
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                            0.788
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                        0.373
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                0.367
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                            0.248
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`      -0.093
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                      0.608
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    -3.774
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   -3.636
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                72.315
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   8.274
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                         5.329
##                                                                       Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                           0.674625
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               0.838097
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.265377
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.232147
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.430603
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.709101
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.713708
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.803979
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     0.926265
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.543274
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.000164
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.000282
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                < 2e-16
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  < 2e-16
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       1.07e-07
##                                                                          
## (Intercept)                                                              
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`        
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 4992 on 2694 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.7506, Adjusted R-squared:  0.7493 
## F-statistic: 579.2 on 14 and 2694 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
step(full_model ,data= trump_data , direction = "backward" ,test = "F")
## Start:  AIC=46152.09
## `trump votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Female persons, percent, 2014` + `White alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `Households, 2009-2013` + 
##     `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`      1
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             1
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1
## <none>                                                                    
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     2.1344e+05
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.0405e+06
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.5353e+06
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              3.3546e+06
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      3.4686e+06
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    9.2092e+06
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.5483e+07
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            3.0922e+07
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       3.5589e+07
## <none>                                                                            
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  3.2942e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   3.5496e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       7.0755e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.7057e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.3030e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     6.7126e+10
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               6.7127e+10
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7128e+10
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              6.7129e+10
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      6.7129e+10
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    6.7135e+10
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7142e+10
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            6.7157e+10
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       6.7162e+10
## <none>                                                                  6.7126e+10
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.7455e+10
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.7481e+10
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       6.7834e+10
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 6.8832e+10
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.9743e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     46150
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               46150
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          46150
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              46150
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      46150
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    46150
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          46151
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            46151
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       46152
## <none>                                                                  46152
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  46163
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   46164
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       46178
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 46218
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               49073
##                                                                           F value
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`        0.0086
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  0.0418
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             0.0616
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 0.1346
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         0.1392
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       0.3696
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                             0.6214
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               1.2410
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          1.4283
## <none>                                                                           
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                    13.2207
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                     14.2459
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                         28.3966
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   68.4561
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5229.4221
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     0.9262653
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               0.8380972
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.8039785
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.7137075
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.7091012
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.5432743
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.4306025
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.2653769
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.2321470
## <none>                                                                           
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002821
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001639
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1.07e-07
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` < 2.2e-16
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`        
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          
## <none>                                                                     
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Step:  AIC=46150.1
## `trump votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Female persons, percent, 2014` + `White alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                1
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             1
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## <none>                                                                    
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.0754e+06
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            3.0980e+07
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       3.5718e+07
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          4.1625e+07
## <none>                                                                            
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      8.9653e+07
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              9.0093e+07
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.3861e+08
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          2.8500e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  3.2944e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   3.5502e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       7.0763e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.7100e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.3040e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               6.7127e+10
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            6.7157e+10
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       6.7162e+10
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7168e+10
## <none>                                                                  6.7126e+10
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      6.7216e+10
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              6.7216e+10
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    6.7265e+10
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7411e+10
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.7456e+10
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.7481e+10
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       6.7834e+10
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 6.8836e+10
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.9753e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               46148
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            46149
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       46150
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          46150
## <none>                                                                  46150
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      46152
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              46152
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    46154
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          46160
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  46161
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   46162
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       46177
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 46216
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               49072
##                                                                           F value
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  0.0432
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               1.2438
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          1.4340
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             1.6712
## <none>                                                                           
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         3.5994
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 3.6171
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       5.5648
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                            11.4424
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                    13.2265
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                     14.2535
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                         28.4102
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   68.6529
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5235.3434
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               0.8354108
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.2648416
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.2312138
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.1962120
## <none>                                                                           
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.0579071
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.0572954
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.0183956
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.0007281
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002812
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001632
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       1.063e-07
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` < 2.2e-16
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## <none>                                                                     
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      .  
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              .  
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    *  
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Step:  AIC=46148.14
## `trump votes` ~ `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Female persons, percent, 2014` + `White alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## <none>                                                                    
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       3.7903e+07
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            4.2856e+07
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          4.5993e+07
## <none>                                                                            
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              9.5863e+07
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      9.6385e+07
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.4802e+08
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          2.9863e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  3.2921e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   3.5556e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       7.2012e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.7118e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.3107e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       6.7165e+10
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            6.7170e+10
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7173e+10
## <none>                                                                  6.7127e+10
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              6.7223e+10
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      6.7224e+10
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    6.7275e+10
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7426e+10
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.7457e+10
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.7483e+10
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       6.7847e+10
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 6.8839e+10
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.9819e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       46148
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            46148
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          46148
## <none>                                                                  46148
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              46150
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      46150
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    46152
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          46158
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  46159
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   46160
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       46175
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 46214
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               49079
##                                                                           F value
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          1.5223
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               1.7212
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             1.8472
## <none>                                                                           
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 3.8501
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         3.8711
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       5.9450
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                            11.9939
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                    13.2218
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                     14.2801
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                         28.9219
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   68.7516
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5263.8982
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.2173808
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.1896517
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.1742260
## <none>                                                                           
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.0498464
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.0492279
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.0148232
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.0005421
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002819
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001609
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       8.182e-08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` < 2.2e-16
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                          
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## <none>                                                                     
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              *  
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      *  
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    *  
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Step:  AIC=46147.67
## `trump votes` ~ `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, percent, 2014` + `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## <none>                                                                    
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            3.4398e+07
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          4.5628e+07
## <none>                                                                            
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              9.6192e+07
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      9.6775e+07
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.4852e+08
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          3.0215e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  3.3814e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   3.6656e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       8.1231e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.8054e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.3268e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            6.7200e+10
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7211e+10
## <none>                                                                  6.7165e+10
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              6.7261e+10
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      6.7262e+10
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    6.7314e+10
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7467e+10
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.7503e+10
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.7532e+10
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       6.7978e+10
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 6.8971e+10
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.9984e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            46147
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          46148
## <none>                                                                  46148
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              46150
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      46150
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    46152
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          46158
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  46159
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   46160
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       46178
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 46218
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               49100
##                                                                           F value
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               1.3812
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             1.8322
## <none>                                                                           
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 3.8626
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         3.8860
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       5.9636
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                            12.1329
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                    13.5781
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                     14.7192
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                         32.6180
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   72.4963
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5327.7099
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.2399922
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.1759858
## <none>                                                                           
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.0494774
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.0487928
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.0146680
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.0005033
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002333
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001276
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       1.244e-08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` < 2.2e-16
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## <none>                                                                     
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              *  
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      *  
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    *  
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Step:  AIC=46147.06
## `trump votes` ~ `White alone, percent, 2014` + `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## <none>                                                                    
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## <none>                                                                            
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          5.1833e+07
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              1.0263e+08
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      1.0295e+08
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.5391e+08
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          3.1164e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  3.3874e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   3.6493e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       8.6681e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.7865e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               1.3303e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## <none>                                                                  6.7200e+10
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7251e+10
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              6.7302e+10
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      6.7303e+10
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    6.7354e+10
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.7511e+10
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.7538e+10
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.7565e+10
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       6.8066e+10
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 6.8986e+10
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               2.0023e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## <none>                                                                  46147
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          46147
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              46149
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      46149
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    46151
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          46158
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  46159
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   46160
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       46180
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 46216
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               49103
##                                                                           F value
## <none>                                                                           
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             2.0810
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 4.1203
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         4.1332
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       6.1792
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                            12.5119
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                    13.6002
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                     14.6517
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                         34.8016
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   71.7245
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5340.9454
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## <none>                                                                           
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.1492547
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.0424690
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.0421483
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.0129865
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.0004112
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002306
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001323
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       4.106e-09
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` < 2.2e-16
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## <none>                                                                     
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              *  
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      *  
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    *  
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = `trump votes` ~ `White alone, percent, 2014` + `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`, data = trump_data)
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                           (Intercept)  
##                                                            -6.988e+04  
##                                          `White alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             1.229e+03  
##                      `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             6.592e+02  
##              `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             6.498e+02  
##                                          `Asian alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             4.991e+02  
##                                    `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             9.766e+02  
##                                   `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`  
##                                                            -5.593e+02  
##                  `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`  
##                                                            -5.658e+02  
##                                               `Households, 2009-2013`  
##                                                             7.613e-02  
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  
##                                                             1.948e-01  
##                                       `Retail sales per capita, 2007`  
##                                                             1.121e-01

Inference from backward elimination process[Trump]

We see from the above results, the votes gain for Trump has some high co-relation to below metrics.

  • White alone, percent, 2014 12.5119 0.0004112 ***
  • White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 13.6002 0.0002306 ***
  • Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 14.6517 0.0001323 ***
  • Retail sales per capita, 2007 34.8016 4.106e-09 ***
  • Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013 71.7245 < 2.2e-16 ***
  • Households, 2009-2013 5340.9454 < 2.2e-16 ***
clinton_data <- complete_data %>% filter(`clinton votes`> 0 )  %>% select("sanders fraction votes","sanders votes","clinton fraction votes","clinton votes","trump fraction votes","trump votes","cruz fraction votes","cruz votes", "Persons under 5 years, percent, 2014","Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014","Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014","Female persons, percent, 2014","White alone, percent, 2014","Black or African American alone, percent, 2014","American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014","Asian alone, percent, 2014","Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014","Two or More Races, percent, 2014","Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014","White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014","Households, 2009-2013" , "Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013" , "Retail sales per capita, 2007")


print("Clinton analysis..")
## [1] "Clinton analysis.."
full_model <- lm(`clinton votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`+`Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`+`Female persons, percent, 2014`+`White alone, percent, 2014`+`Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`+`American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`+`Asian alone, percent, 2014`+`Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`+`Two or More Races, percent, 2014`+ `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + `Retail sales per capita, 2007`  , data= trump_data)
summary(full_model)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = `clinton votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + `Female persons, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, percent, 2014` + `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `Households, 2009-2013` + 
##     `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`, data = trump_data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -122141   -1131     226    1223  116968 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                         Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                           -1.835e+05
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               -1.965e+02
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             2.608e+01
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1.574e+02
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           9.920e+02
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1.846e+03
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1.818e+03
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1.910e+03
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     -2.834e+02
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1.371e+03
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    7.517e+02
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   7.685e+02
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1.555e-01
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1.281e-01
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       -8.968e-02
##                                                                       Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                            1.828e+05
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                6.130e+01
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             4.537e+01
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        6.935e+01
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1.836e+03
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1.828e+03
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1.828e+03
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1.830e+03
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`      1.885e+03
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1.830e+03
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1.977e+02
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   2.075e+02
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1.419e-03
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  3.140e-02
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        2.646e-02
##                                                                       t value
## (Intercept)                                                            -1.004
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                -3.206
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                              0.575
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                         2.270
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                            0.540
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                        1.010
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                0.995
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                            1.044
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`      -0.150
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                      0.749
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                     3.803
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                    3.704
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                               109.572
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`   4.079
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        -3.389
##                                                                       Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                           0.315623
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               0.001363
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.565423
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.023271
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.589038
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.312537
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.319869
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.296606
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     0.880499
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.453887
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.000146
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.000217
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                                < 2e-16
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 4.65e-05
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       0.000712
##                                                                          
## (Intercept)                                                              
## `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               ** 
## `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       *  
## `White alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         
## `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 
## `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`        
## `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       
## `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 6744 on 2694 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8751, Adjusted R-squared:  0.8745 
## F-statistic:  1348 on 14 and 2694 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
step(full_model ,data= clinton_data , direction = "backward" ,test = "F")
## Start:  AIC=47782.23
## `clinton votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Female persons, percent, 2014` + `White alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `Households, 2009-2013` + 
##     `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`      1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## <none>                                                                    
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     1.0281e+06
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.3277e+07
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            1.5031e+07
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    2.5519e+07
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              4.5019e+07
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      4.6404e+07
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          4.9566e+07
## <none>                                                                            
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       2.3441e+08
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               4.6742e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       5.2236e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.2388e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.5773e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 7.5673e+08
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5.4605e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     1.2253e+11
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.2254e+11
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            1.2254e+11
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.2255e+11
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              1.2257e+11
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      1.2257e+11
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.2258e+11
## <none>                                                                  1.2253e+11
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       1.2276e+11
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.2299e+11
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       1.2305e+11
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  1.2315e+11
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   1.2318e+11
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.2328e+11
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               6.6858e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     47780
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          47781
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            47781
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    47781
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              47781
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      47781
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          47781
## <none>                                                                  47782
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       47785
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               47791
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       47792
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  47794
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   47795
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 47797
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               52377
##                                                                            F value
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`         0.0226
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                              0.2919
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                                0.3305
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                        0.5611
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                  0.9898
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                          1.0203
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                              1.0898
## <none>                                                                            
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                           5.1540
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  10.2773
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                          11.4853
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                     13.7174
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                      14.4617
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`    16.6384
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               12006.1001
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`     0.8804987
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.5890381
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.5654232
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.4538869
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              0.3198689
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      0.3125374
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.2966056
## <none>                                                                           
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.0232711
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               0.0013625
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       0.0007116
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002167
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001462
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 4.654e-05
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## - `Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014`        
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                       
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             
## <none>                                                                     
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       *  
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               ** 
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Step:  AIC=47780.25
## `clinton votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Female persons, percent, 2014` + `White alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                             1
## <none>                                                                    
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            1.4949e+07
## <none>                                                                            
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       2.3515e+08
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          3.1735e+08
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    4.1577e+08
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               4.6956e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       5.2223e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.2381e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.5757e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 7.6019e+08
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          9.4274e+08
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      1.0206e+09
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              1.0259e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5.4647e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            1.2254e+11
## <none>                                                                  1.2253e+11
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       1.2276e+11
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.2284e+11
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.2294e+11
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.2300e+11
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       1.2305e+11
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  1.2315e+11
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   1.2318e+11
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.2329e+11
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.2347e+11
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      1.2355e+11
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              1.2355e+11
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               6.6900e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            47779
## <none>                                                                  47780
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       47783
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          47785
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    47787
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               47789
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       47790
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  47792
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   47793
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 47795
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          47799
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      47801
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              47801
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               52377
##                                                                            F value
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                                0.3288
## <none>                                                                            
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                           5.1723
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                              6.9803
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                        9.1450
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  10.3281
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                          11.4866
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                     13.7208
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                      14.4635
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`    16.7205
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             20.7357
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         22.4480
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 22.5652
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               12019.6905
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                            0.5664092
## <none>                                                                           
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.0230285
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.0082891
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.0025175
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               0.0013257
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       0.0007111
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002164
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001461
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 4.458e-05
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          5.506e-06
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      2.271e-06
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              2.138e-06
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## - `Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014`                               
## <none>                                                                     
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       *  
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          ** 
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    ** 
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               ** 
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          ***
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      ***
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Step:  AIC=47778.58
## `clinton votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + `Female persons, percent, 2014` + 
##     `White alone, percent, 2014` + `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`
## 
##                                                                         Df
## <none>                                                                    
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                        1
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                     1
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                        1
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                   1
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                    1
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  1
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                           1
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                       1
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`               1
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                1
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                                1
##                                                                          Sum of Sq
## <none>                                                                            
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          3.0425e+08
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       3.2773e+08
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    4.0155e+08
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       5.6948e+08
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  6.2399e+08
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   6.5893e+08
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 7.6277e+08
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          9.3083e+08
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      1.0070e+09
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              1.0117e+09
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.0611e+09
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               5.4966e+11
##                                                                                RSS
## <none>                                                                  1.2254e+11
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.2285e+11
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       1.2287e+11
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    1.2294e+11
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       1.2311e+11
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  1.2317e+11
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   1.2320e+11
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 1.2330e+11
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          1.2347e+11
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      1.2355e+11
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              1.2355e+11
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.2360e+11
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               6.7220e+11
##                                                                           AIC
## <none>                                                                  47779
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          47783
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       47784
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    47785
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       47789
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  47790
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   47791
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 47793
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          47797
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      47799
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              47799
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               47800
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               52388
##                                                                            F value
## <none>                                                                            
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                              6.6936
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                           7.2103
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                        8.8344
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                          12.5289
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                     13.7282
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                      14.4968
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`    16.7814
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                             20.4789
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                         22.1556
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`                 22.2582
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                                  23.3452
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               12092.7989
##                                                                            Pr(>F)
## <none>                                                                           
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          0.0097277
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       0.0072931
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    0.0029822
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       0.0004075
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  0.0002155
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   0.0001435
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` 4.318e-05
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          6.290e-06
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      2.641e-06
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              2.505e-06
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               1.430e-06
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               < 2.2e-16
##                                                                            
## <none>                                                                     
## - `White alone, percent, 2014`                                          ** 
## - `Female persons, percent, 2014`                                       ** 
## - `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`                                    ** 
## - `Retail sales per capita, 2007`                                       ***
## - `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                  ***
## - `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`                                   ***
## - `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` ***
## - `Asian alone, percent, 2014`                                          ***
## - `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`                      ***
## - `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`              ***
## - `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`                               ***
## - `Households, 2009-2013`                                               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = `clinton votes` ~ `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Female persons, percent, 2014` + `White alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014` + `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Asian alone, percent, 2014` + `Two or More Races, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014` + 
##     `Households, 2009-2013` + `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013` + 
##     `Retail sales per capita, 2007`, data = trump_data)
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                           (Intercept)  
##                                                            -2.060e+05  
##                               `Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014`  
##                                                            -2.203e+02  
##                                       `Female persons, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             1.726e+02  
##                                          `White alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             1.220e+03  
##                      `Black or African American alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             2.073e+03  
##              `American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             2.048e+03  
##                                          `Asian alone, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             2.126e+03  
##                                    `Two or More Races, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             1.588e+03  
##                                   `Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             7.523e+02  
##                  `White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014`  
##                                                             7.685e+02  
##                                               `Households, 2009-2013`  
##                                                             1.554e-01  
## `Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013`  
##                                                             1.285e-01  
##                                       `Retail sales per capita, 2007`  
##                                                            -9.226e-02

Inference from backward elimination process[Hilary]

We see from the above results, the votes gain for Hilary has some high co-relation to below metrics.

  • Retail sales per capita, 2007 12.5289 0.0004075 ***
  • White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 13.7282 0.0002155 ***
  • Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 14.4968 0.0001435 ***
  • Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013 16.7814 4.318e-05 ***
  • Asian alone, percent, 2014 20.4789 6.290e-06 ***
  • Black or African American alone, percent, 2014 22.1556 2.641e-06 ***
  • American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014 22.2582 2.505e-06 ***
  • Persons under 18 years, percent, 2014 23.3452 1.430e-06 ***
  • Households, 2009-2013 12092.7989 < 2.2e-16 ***

Relationship between Households with Trump, Hilary votes gained.

Based on above results, we see the metrics “Households, 2009-2013” has a high significance level on votes gained regardless of candidates. Infact there are couple of other metrics too[Per capita money income, Retail sales per capita, 2007] which are common to both candidates, but highly significant to the target metric. Let’s create a scatterplot for trump favored states[Indiana, Florida, Pennsylvania counties] that shows mean household and total votes gained for Trump/Hilary for each states. We see a linear relationship between Households and votes gained[Trump]. But slope of line is different in both cases. Hilary has higher slope than Trump which means that counties having low household is favoring Trump and counties having high household favoring Hilary.

Please read this article which commends on “Richer people vote more”

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/low-voter-turnout-increasing-household-income-may-help/

Caption for the picture.

Caption for the picture.

Now let’s create a scatterplot for hilary favored states[California, Newyork, New jersy counties] that shows mean household and total votes gained for Trump/Hilary for each states. Here as well, we get a linear relation, but slope is more or less same which means there is not much favorism towards Trump in these states.

Caption for the picture.

Caption for the picture.