Guild: BaseDeltaZero
Updated: 10 October, 2018
Previous posts:

- Zeta material probabilities
- Bronzium probabilities part 1
- Bronzium probabilities part 2

Last year I collected drop rates for various Cantina, Light side and Dark side hard nodes that I was farming. It allowed me to estimate what resources I’d need to star up a toon or kit it out. It was a lot of hard work though so I quit after a little while.

Earlier this year I figured out how to do some simple image recognition so now I take screen shots and get my laptop to do all the hard work. The results here are from my farming for the past couple of months.

The “intuition” is the value that I and others I’ve spoken with have estimated as the true drop rates, and the error bars are from binomial confidence intervals for the true proportion (multiplied by 3 for mod drop rates) and also look like TIE fighters head-on. I’m not certain by any means that drop trates are truly binomially distributed, so ymmv.

For this update I’ve also included the 2017 values as a comparison.

Numerical values are in a table below the plots.

Plots:

Table of drop rates:

battle name type start date end date lower drop rate upper
Cantina Battle 1E Lando Calrissian shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.30 0.35 0.41
Cantina Battle 2G First Order Executioner shard / blueprint 2018-08-27 2018-10-04 0.31 0.34 0.38
Cantina Battle 3E Finn shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.28 0.36 0.45
Cantina Battle 4B TIE Fighter pilot shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.23 0.29 0.35
Cantina Battle 4D Genosian Spy shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.33 0.39 0.45
Cantina Battle 4G Plo Koon shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.29 0.37 0.45
Cantina Battle 5F Lando Calrissian shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.32 0.39 0.45
Cantina Battle 6F Wedge Antilles shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.29 0.34 0.38
Cantina Battle 8B Sith Trooper shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-12 0.27 0.35 0.43
Dark Side Battle 1B Clone sergeant phase 1 shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.28 0.34 0.40
Mk 2 BlasTech Weapon Mod gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.42 0.48 0.55
Mk 2 TaggeCo Holo Lens gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.44 0.51 0.57
Mk 3 Loronar Power Cell gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.40 0.47 0.53
Dark Side Battle 3A Range Trooper shard / blueprint 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.31 0.39 0.48
Resistance trooper shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.24 0.31 0.39
Mk 1 Czerka Stun Cuffs gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.40 0.48 0.56
Mk 1 Czerka Stun Cuffs gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.47 0.56 0.65
Mk 2 BAW Armor Mod Prototype gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.43 0.52 0.60
Mk 2 BAW Armor Mod Prototype gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.43 0.52 0.61
Mk 3 Merr-Sonn Thermal Detonator Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.25 0.32 0.41
Mk 3 Merr-Sonn Thermal Detonator Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.24 0.32 0.41
Dark Side Battle 3E Clone sergeant phase 1 shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.29 0.35 0.42
Mk 2 TaggeCo Holo Lens gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.40 0.48 0.55
Mk 4 BAW Armor Mod Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.25 0.31 0.38
Mk 5 TaggeCo Holo Lens Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.30 0.37 0.44
Dark Side Battle 4C Ahsoka Tano shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.26 0.37 0.49
Mk 1 TaggeCo Holo Lens gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.22 0.33 0.45
Mk 4 BioTech Implant Prototype gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.37 0.49 0.61
Mk 7 BAW Armor Mod Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.35 0.47 0.59
Mk 7 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.27 0.38 0.50
Dark Side Battle 5B Bastila Shan shard / blueprint 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.26 0.36 0.48
Mk 5 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.41 0.52 0.63
Mk 7 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Salavge gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.20 0.29 0.40
Mk 3 Arakyd Droid Caller Salvage gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.19 0.28 0.39
Mk 4 CEC Fusion Furnace Prototype Salvage gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.14 0.22 0.33
Dark Side Battle 7C Amilyn Holdo shard / blueprint 2018-08-27 2018-09-30 0.29 0.38 0.48
Mk 3 Chiewab Hypo Syringe Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-09-30 0.32 0.41 0.50
Mk 5 A-KT Stun Gun Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-09-30 0.19 0.27 0.36
Mk 7 BlasTech Weapon Mod Prototype Salavge gear 2018-08-27 2018-09-30 0.27 0.36 0.45
Mk 5 Merr-Sonn Thermal Detonator Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-09-30 0.18 0.25 0.34
Dark Side Battle 8B Jedi Consular’s Starfighter shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.25 0.33 0.41
Mk 1 Carbanti Sensor Array Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.30 0.38 0.47
Mk 3 Czerka Stun Cuffs Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.09 0.14 0.22
Mk 4 BAW Armor Mod Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.30 0.39 0.48
Mk 4 Chedak Comlink Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.20 0.27 0.36
Dark Side Battle 8C Ewok Elder shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.25 0.35 0.46
Mk 3 Arakyd Droid Caller Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.29 0.40 0.51
Mk 4 Carbanti Sensor Array Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.12 0.20 0.30
Mk 5 Loronar Power Cell Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.20 0.29 0.40
Mk 5 Merr-Sonn Thermal Detonator Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.17 0.26 0.36
Dark Side Battle 9B Bossk shard / blueprint 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.29 0.36 0.43
Mk 5 Nubian Security Scanner Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.15 0.21 0.28
Mk 6 TaggeCo Holo Lens Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.26 0.32 0.39
Mk 9 Fabritech Data Pad Salvage gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.15 0.21 0.28
Mk 10 Neuro-Saav Electrobinoculars gear 2018-08-27 2018-10-07 0.15 0.21 0.28
Dark Side Battle 9C Ghost shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.11 0.26 0.46
Mk 1 Zaltin Bacta Gel Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.28 0.34 0.40
Mk 4 CEC Fusion Furnace Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.24 0.29 0.35
Mk 5 Athakam Medpac Component gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.16 0.21 0.26
Mk 8 BioTech Implant Component gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.15 0.20 0.25
Light Side Battle 2C Ewok Elder shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.28 0.35 0.43
Mk 1 Arakyd Droid Caller gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.47 0.55 0.63
Mk 1 BlasTech Weapon Mod gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.42 0.50 0.58
Mk 1 Fabritech Data Pad gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.45 0.53 0.61
Light Side Battle 3A Resistance trooper shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.24 0.32 0.40
Mk 1 BlasTech Weapon Mod gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.35 0.43 0.51
Mk 2 TaggeCo Holo Lens gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.48 0.56 0.64
Mk 4 BAW Armor Mod Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.24 0.32 0.40
Light Side Battle 5E Clone sergeant phase 1 shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.32 0.38 0.45
Mk 1 Nubian Design Tech Prototype gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.38 0.45 0.52
Mk 1 Sienar Holo Projector gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.48 0.55 0.62
Mk 4 Merr-Sonn Thermal Detonator Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.26 0.32 0.38
Mk 7 BAW Armor Mod Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.22 0.28 0.35
Light Side Battle 7A Finn shard / blueprint 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.27 0.35 0.43
Mk 3 Sienar Holo Projector Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.18 0.24 0.32
Mk 4 Chiewab Hypo Syringe Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.20 0.26 0.34
Mk 5 SoroSuub Keypad Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.20 0.26 0.34
Mk 7 BAW Armor Mod Prototype Salvage gear 2017-02-05 2017-06-20 0.25 0.32 0.40
Light Side Battle 9C Baze Malbus shard / blueprint 2018-08-31 2018-10-07 0.26 0.33 0.41
Mk 6 Neuro-Saav Electrobinoculars Prototype gear 2018-08-31 2018-10-07 0.28 0.35 0.44
Mk 6 Nubian Security Scanner Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-31 2018-10-07 0.17 0.23 0.31
Mk 8 BioTech Implant Salvage gear 2018-08-31 2018-10-07 0.16 0.22 0.29
Mk 9 Fabritech Data Pad Component gear 2018-08-31 2018-10-07 0.20 0.27 0.34
Mod Battle 9B Mk 1 Fusion Disk mod 2018-09-02 2018-09-07 1.11 1.35 1.58
Mod Battle 9C Mk 1 Power Flow Control Chip mod 2018-08-31 2018-10-07 1.11 1.20 1.29
Mod Battle 9D Mk 1 Fusion Coil mod 2018-08-31 2018-09-30 1.10 1.19 1.29
Ship Battle 2D Bastila Shan shard / blueprint 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.23 0.31 0.40
Mk 5 BioTech Implant Prototype gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.13 0.20 0.28
Mk 6 Chiewab Hypo Syringe Salvage gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.23 0.32 0.41
Mk 6 Loronar Power Cell Salvage gear 2018-09-13 2018-10-07 0.19 0.27 0.36
Ship Battle 5D Enfys Nest shard / blueprint 2018-08-28 2018-09-07 0.29 0.42 0.56
Mk 3 Chiewab Hypo Syringe Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-28 2018-09-07 0.16 0.27 0.41
Mk 10 Neuro-Saav Electrobinoculars gear 2018-08-28 2018-09-07 0.04 0.11 0.22
Mk 4 Chiewab Hypo Syringe Prototype Salvage gear 2018-08-28 2018-09-07 0.09 0.18 0.31