Chapter 2 - Exercise 6, page 72

Assume that a new light bulb will burn out after \(t\) hours, where \(t\) is chosen from \([0, \infty)\) with an exponential density \(f(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}\) In this context, \(\lambda\) is often called the failure rate of the bulb.

(a) Assume that \(\lambda = 0.01\), and find the probability that the bulb will not burn out before \(T\) hours. This probability is often called the reliability of the bulb.

\(f(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}\)

We can use the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus with this equation.

\(F(x) = \int^{x}_{a}f(t)dt\)

We can also keep in mind that \(\int e^{\lambda t}dt\) can also be written as \(\frac{1}{\lambda} e^{\lambda t} + C\)

Keeping this in mind, we can work on solving this problem.

\(\int^{T}_{0}\frac{1}{100}e^{-\frac{1}{100}t}\)

This can also be written as….

\(\frac{1}{100}|\frac{e^{-\frac{1}{100}t}}{-\frac{1}{100}}|^{T}_{0}\)

The \(\frac{1}{100}\) and \(-\frac{1}{100}\) solve to a \(-1\), so…

\(|-e^{-\frac{1}{100}t}|^{T}_{0}\)

This solves to be…

\(|-e^{-\frac{1}{100}T}|\) and \(|-e^{-\frac{1}{100}0}|\)

To be perfectly honest, we do not care about the case for 0, just for T, as outlined in the problem.

\(|-e^{-\frac{1}{100}T}|\)

\(e^{-\frac{1}{100}T}\)

Thus, we can come to the conclusion that the probability the bulb will not burn out before \(T\) hours is \(e^{-\frac{1}{100}T}\).

(b) For what \(T\) is the reliability of the bulb = 1/2?

To start with, we have the equation \(\frac{1}{2} = e^{-\frac{1}{100}T}\).

From our knowledge of natural logarithms, we know that if two different functions are equal to each other, then their natural logarithms are equal to each other as well.

\(ln(\frac{1}{2}) = ln(e^{-\frac{1}{100}T})\)

Using a rule of natural logarithms, we know that \(log_{a}(\frac{1}{x}) = -log(x)\). We can rewrite our equation once more with this knowledge:

\(-ln(2) = ln(e^{-\frac{1}{100}T})\)

Using yet another rule of natural logarithms, we know that \(log_{a}(x^{b}) = b\times log_{a}(x)\). Once more, our equation gets rewritten…

\(-ln(2) = (-\frac{1}{100}T)ln(e)\)

The natural logarithm of e is 1, so…

\(-ln(2) = (-\frac{1}{100}T)\times1\)

\(-ln(2) = -\frac{1}{100}T\)

Now it’s a matter of solving the equation.

\(-\frac{1}{100}T = -ln(2)\)

\(100\times(-\frac{1}{100}T) = 100\times(-ln(2))\)

\(-T = -100ln(2)\)

\(\frac{-T}{-1} = \frac{-100ln(2)}{-1}\)

\(T = 100ln(2)\)

\(T = 100\times0.6931472\)

\(T = 69.31472\)

So, when a light bulb has a reliability of \(\frac{1}{2}\), you can rest assured that its T value is 69.31472.