- State of the US economy
- Trump approval
- Woman candidates
- Gerrymandering
- Trump impeachment?
22 October 2018
Outline
Dow Jones vs All Ords, GFC low = 100
Labor force participation
Unemployment rates
Real change, GDP per capita
But Trump’s approval…
Midterms
- All 435 House seats (every two years)
- 35 (roughly, 1/3) of the Senate: elected to 6 year terms.
- All leading indicators point to Democrats re-taking House.
- Senate less likely to be won by Dems: many more Dems on the ballot.
- 35 state gubernatorial contests: 26 R and 9 D.
- Just two Dem doubtfuls, but nine Rep doubtfuls.
- Florida!
House
- 435 seat House, currently 236 (R) to 193 (D), and six vacancies.
- 219 for a majority
- Dems need at least 24 seats to win (assumed they will get two vacancies).
- Republican retirements
- Many more R-held “toss up seats” than the converse
Presidential approval & midterm seat loss, \(r^2\) = 0.46 \(\hat{\sigma}\) = 16.8
Primary turnout \(\rightarrow\) high levels of Democratic enthusiasm
Women candidates
Generic ballot (poll averaging), from fivethirtyeight.com
But gerrymandering?
Senate
Impeachment prospects
- Dems are likely to impeach if they win the House
- Trump is likely to survive trial in the Senate: requires 2/3 vote for removal from office
- If so, this would make Trump the 3rd president to be impeached and tried in the Senate
- No president has ever been removed from office.