Churn Analysis

Palash Jain

9/8/2018

A quarter of our customers are prone to churning!!

Use predictive analytics to target customers predicted to Churn

gender SeniorCitizen Partner Dependents PhoneService MultipleLines InternetService OnlineSecurity OnlineBackup DeviceProtection TechSupport StreamingTV StreamingMovies Contract PaperlessBilling PaymentMethod MonthlyCharges tenure_group Churn
Female No Yes No No No DSL No Yes No No No No Month-to-month Yes Electronic check 29.85 A No
Male No No No Yes No DSL Yes No Yes No No No One year No Mailed check 56.95 C No
Male No No No Yes No DSL Yes Yes No No No No Month-to-month Yes Mailed check 53.85 A Yes
Male No No No No No DSL Yes No Yes Yes No No One year No Bank transfer (automatic) 42.30 D No
Female No No No Yes No Fiber optic No No No No No No Month-to-month Yes Electronic check 70.70 A Yes
Female No No No Yes Yes Fiber optic No No Yes No Yes Yes Month-to-month Yes Electronic check 99.65 A Yes

Monthly and Total charges are correlated

If two or more attributes in a dataset are correlated, only one of them should be included in the Machine Learning algorithm.

##                MonthlyCharges TotalCharges
## MonthlyCharges           1.00         0.65
## TotalCharges             0.65         1.00

Exploratory Data Analysis I

Exploratory Data Analysis II

Exploratory Data Analysis III

Logistic Regression Model has an accuracy of 80%

Logistic Regression results show most predictive attributes

Internet Service, Tenure Group and Contract Length the most significant predictors of Churn

Deviance Resid. Df Resid. Dev Pr(>Chi) diff
InternetService 402.69 4211 4240.04 0.00 402.69
Contract 256.26 4203 3658.28 0.00 256.26
tenure_group 156.22 4193 3469.32 0.00 156.22
OnlineSecurity 145.39 4210 4094.65 0.00 145.39
Partner 111.97 4216 4680.72 0.00 111.97
SeniorCitizen 94.56 4217 4792.69 0.00 94.56
TechSupport 77.33 4207 3916.81 0.00 77.33
OnlineBackup 63.01 4209 4031.64 0.00 63.01
DeviceProtection 37.51 4208 3994.14 0.00 37.51
Dependents 25.26 4215 4655.46 0.00 25.26
PaymentMethod 17.32 4199 3625.94 0.00 17.32
PaperlessBilling 15.03 4202 3643.26 0.00 15.03
MultipleLines 10.47 4213 4642.73 0.00 10.47
PhoneService 2.26 4214 4653.20 0.13 2.26
StreamingTV 2.00 4206 3914.81 0.16 2.00
gender 0.48 4218 4887.25 0.49 0.48
MonthlyCharges 0.39 4198 3625.54 0.53 0.39
StreamingMovies 0.28 4205 3914.54 0.60 0.28

Decision trees show 80% accuracy

Based on the 3 most predictive attributes

Decision Tree