SGU 2018 Science or Fiction Stats

Background

The Skeptics Guide to the Universe is a weekly podcast hosted by Dr. Steven Novella. Each week during this segment of the podcast, Dr. Novella presents his panel of skeptics with 3 or 4 science-related news items, 1 of which is fiction. And each panelist must determine which is the fiction.

Year End Episode

At the end of the calendar year, Dr. Novella host a year in review episode where the panel reviews their performance at Science or Fiction.

2018 Summary - Episodes# 652 - 703

• Evan led this year with the highest overall win percentage, followed by Jay
• The Rogues performed better overall this year compared to last 60.7% to 55.6%
• Cara is the only rogue that performs better on segments with themes than without.
• Evan has the most solo wins, followed by Cara and Jay.
• The panel performs better overall when Cara answers first
• Relative to other panelists, Bob does well when he is the first to answer. Performance for all rogues answering first dramatically improved this year compared to last year.
• There were 12 panelist sweeps (compared to 7 in 2017) and 4 hosts sweeps, 1 by Bob, 1 by Jay and 2 by Steve (Steve had 5 host sweeps last year and Evan had 1).

2018 Summary Statistics

NOTE: ALL includes contributions from Special Guest Rogues not listed
Raw data and some visuals are located in This Excel file Click the Download button on this github page.
Last Year comparison is based on Episodes 601 - 651

Overall Performance

Panelist	2018	2017
ALL	60.7%	55.6%
Bob	55.1%	52.0%
Cara	61.4%	62.2%
Evan	69.4%	58.3%
Jay	63.3%	53.1%
Steve	0%	50.0%

Performance For Segments WITH Themes

Panelist	2018	2017
ALL	51.8%	53.3%
Bob	36.8%	44.0%
Cara	66.7%	68.2%
Evan	55.0%	47.8%
Jay	60.0%	56.0%
Steve	0%	50.0%

Performance For Segments WITHOUT Themes

Panelist	2018	2017
ALL	67.2%	58.0%
Bob	66.7%	60.0%
Cara	57.7%	56.5%
Evan	79.3%	68.0%
Jay	65.5%	50.0%

Solo Wins

Evan	5
Cara	2
Jay	2
TOTAL	9

Longest Consecutive Winning Streak

Cara	6
Jay	6
Bob	5
Evan	5

Longest Consecutive Losing Streak

Steve	3
Bob	3
Cara	3
Jay	3
Evan	2

Panel Performance When Answering First

A measure of how well the panel of rogues perform based on who answers first

Panelist	2018	2017
Cara	72.9%	53.2%
Bob	65.7%	59.6%
Evan	59.3%	56.4%
Jay	57.8%	48.9%

Individual Panelist Performance When Answering First

A measure of an individuals performance when answering first

Panelist	2018	2017
Bob	66.7%	16.7%
Evan	64.3%	40.0%
Cara	58.3%	25.0%
ALL	54.9%	26.9%
Jay	41.7%	18.2%

Host Sweeps

Host	2018	2017
ALL	4	6
Steve	2	5
Bob	1	NA
Jay	1	NA
Evan	NA	1

Panelist Sweeps

How many times a panelist has participated in a sweep of the host

Panelist	2018	2017
Bob	12	7
Jay	12	7
Evan	11	7
Cara	9	7

Duo Performance

How well each pair of rouges performs when choosing a DIFFERENT answer from their peer

For example, when Cara answers differently from Bob, she is correct 52.6% of the time.
When Bob answers differently from Cara, he is correct 26.3% of the time.

Rogue	Bob	Cara	Evan	Jay	Steve
Bob	NA	26.3%	21.7%	26.3%	NA
Cara	52.6%	NA	36.4%	41.2%	100%
Evan	60.9%	54.5%	NA	52.2%	0%
Jay	42.1%	47.1%	39.1%	NA	100%
Steve	NA	0%	0%	0%	NA

How well each pair of rouges performs when choosing the SAME answer as their peer

For example, when Jay and Evan pick the same answer they are correct 87.5% of the time.
Note: Numbers along the diagonal are the same as individual performance for the year.

Rogue	Bob	Cara	Evan	Jay	Steve
Bob	55.1%	69.6%	83.3%	78.6%	0%
Cara	69.6%	61.4%	85.0%	73.1%	0%
Evan	83.3%	85.0%	69.4%	87.5%	0%
Jay	78.6%	73.1%	87.5%	63.3%	0%
Steve	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%