The player in this game should change another door after Monty Hall openinga door behaind which there is a goat. Beacuse, if the player persist the former choice, the probability of get a car is 1/3. This is also the probiblity of the player made the right choice in the first time. However, if the player change the choice, the probability of get a car is the same as the probability that the player made a wrong choice at first time, so the probability of get a car is 2/3. Therefore, the player should change the choice after Mony Hall open a ‘goat door’.
if not change, the probality of get a car: run 10000000 simulation tests
n <- 0
for ( i in 1:10000000) {
door <- c(1,2,3)
choice <- sample(door,1)
cardoor <- sample(door,1)
if (choice == cardoor) {
n <- n + 1
}
}
print(n/10000000)
## [1] 0.3332662
if change, the probability of get a car : run 10000000 simulation tests
n <- 0
door <- c(1,2,3)
for ( i in 1:10000000) {
cardoor <- sample(door,1)
select <- sample(door,1)
remove <- ifelse(cardoor==select,
sample(setdiff(door,cardoor),1),
setdiff(door,c(cardoor,select)))
reselect <- setdiff(door,c(select,remove))
if (cardoor == reselect) {
n <- n + 1
}
}
print(n/10000000)
## [1] 0.6665251