Former NFL head coach, and current Arizona State coach, Herm Edwards once famously said, “you play to win the game.”. Every once in a blue mood, Edwards’ logic is actually false, and sometimes teams don’t play to win–because they are incentivized NOT to win. At the 2012 Summer Olypmics, for example, several badmitton teams intentionally lost in hopes of securing a more favorable draw through the knockout phases of the tournament.

There is speculation that we might see more of this when Belgium and England square off in the final match of Group G at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Both squads come into the match with 2 wins apiece, having each already secured slots in the knockout round. All that remains to be determined is who will win the group, and who will finish as runner-up. Either squad would win the group if victorious, and since England and Belgium are tied on points, goal differential, and goals forced, meaning a draw would result in the group winner being decided via FIFA Fair Play. This means that England would need to get at least 2 more yellow cards than Belgium to have any chance of advancing via a draw. Prior to Group G and H finishing, here’s how the Knockout Round bracket is looking.