Setting up an RStudio Account

Instructions here

Mon 28 Jan

Topic: Introduction to the course. Randomness, modeling, and inference.

Reading:

• Statistical Modeling textbook §1.1, 1.2, 1.3. The book is available in both new and used forms in the Macalester bookstore. Students on the wait list for the course may, understandably, not want to buy the book until they know they will be joining the course. To make sure that everyone has access to the book, the publisher provides the first few chapters in online format: Chap. 1 and Chap. 2
• A recent newspaper report that frames some of the technical issues covered by the course.
• An orientation for parents. This is the link for notes for a class the college ran for parents of entering students on Saturday 1 Sept 2012. Feel free to send it to your parents or others who ask what you're going to be doing in statistics.
• Login to R. Instructions. The RStudio server

Assignment:

• Do the reading!

In Class:

• Activities on randomness.
• Basics with R.
• Using AcroScore a video

On Your Own:

• Watch this one-hour documentary: The Joy of Stats with Hans Rossling

Notes: instr*

Wed 30 Jan

Topic: Data: cases, variables, tables, and codebooks

Reading:

• Statistical Modeling §1.4, §2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4
• Recent news report: Sleep and Senility

Assignment:

• A video on using AcroScore. Your initial passwords are here on Moodle. Change your password to something more sensible by logging in here and going to the Settings item, then the “Change Password” tab. AcroScore works only on Firefox and Safari browsers, sorry.
• Exercises: 1.RQ, 1.01, 1.02, 1.04, 1.05, 1.10
• Reading Reflection on Sleep and Senility. Hand in on Moodle. UPDATE LINK
• Quick survey to do before class: link

In-class:

• Link to Moodle site for your introductory spreadsheet UPDATE LINK
• Starting with R.

Notes: notes*

Fri 1 Feb

Topic: Organization of data (cont.), descriptive statistics

Reading:

• SM §2.5, SM §3.1, 3.2, 3.3
• XKCD cartoon

Assignment:

• Exercises 1.11, 1.12, 2.RQ, 2.02, 2.04, 3.01, 3.23, 3.53
• Elevator experiment: Instructions 3.36. – Upload your file or a link to your file here.
• Start-of-course knowledge survey

In-Class:

• Table on Marital status of active-duty forces from data.gov and the PDF handout. Hand in your sample data file here on Moodle.
  

Notes: notes*

Mon 4 Feb

Topic: Descriptive statistics: variance

Reading: SM §3.4, 3.5, XKCD cartoon

Assignment: Exercises 2.09, 2.14, 2.22, 3.02, 3.03, 3.04, 3.05, 3.06, 3.08, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 3.17, 3.18, 3.19

In Class: Measures of a distribution

On Your Own: A RadioLab episode about stochasticity

Notes: notes*

Wed 6 Feb

Topic: Groupwise Models

Reading: SM Ch. 4

Assignment: 3.14, 3.16, 3.RQ, 4.03, 4.04, 4.05, 4.06, 4.10

In Class:

• Weekly Quiz. This week, it's about R. A study-guide is available here.

Notes: notes*

Fri 8 Feb

Topic: Model values, residuals, and variance. Sampling and resampling.

Reading: SM Ch. 4 (review). SM §5.1, 5.2

Assignment: 3.54, 4.RQ, 4.07, 4.08, 5.01, 5.02

Notes: notes*

In-Class: Unfit models activity

Mon 11 Feb

Topic: Confidence intervals

Reading: SM §5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.7

Assignment: 5.RQ, 5.03, 5.12, 5.17, 5.20

In Class: Precision and sampling. (Precision is easy. Accuracy will take the rest of the course!)

Notes: notes*

Wed 13 Feb

Topic: Language of Models

Reading: SM §6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4

Assignment:

• Required: 5.13, 5.23, 5.30, 5.31, 6.01, 6.02, 6.04, 6.11, 6.13
• Optional, for the theoretically oriented. 5.40

In Class: Wednesday Quiz

On Your Own:

• Bias in sampling: Steven Strogatz on why your friends have more friends than you do
• One of our data sets is based on the General Social Survey from 1985. Here's an article based on the ongoing General Social Survey in 2012.

Notes: notes*

Fri 15 Feb

Topic: From Model Terms to Formulas and Coefficients

Reading: SM §6.5, 6.6, 6.7, SM §7.1, 7.2

Assignment:

• Required 6.RQ, 6.05, 6.10, 6.12, 7.01, 7.02
• Extensions 6.20, 6.21, XKCD cartoon. What regression model for this?

In Class:

• Partitioning variability. Using the R-Markdown system. Hand-in a link to your document here.
• Selecting Model Terms

Notes: notes*

Mon 18 Feb

Topic: Formulas and Coefficients

Reading:

• SM §7.3, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.7, 7.8, 7.9
• XKCD cartoon

Assignment:

• Exercises 7.RQ, 7.04, 7.05, 7.10, 7.11, 7.12, 7.13, 7.15
• Car project (group project): 7.23 Hand in here on Moodle
• Instructions for reading Google spreadsheets into R

In Class:

• Untangling House Prices

Notes: notes*

Wed 20 Feb

Topic: Fitting and Least Squares

Reading: SM §7.10, SM §8.1, 8.2

Assignment: 7.14, 7.16, 7.21, 7.22, 7.31, 8.01

In Class: Weekly Quiz

Notes: notes*

Fri 22 Feb

Topic: Geometry of Least Squares Fitting

Reading: SM §8.3

Assignment: 8.02, 8.04, 8.05, 8.11

In Class:

• Case versus Variable Spaces

Notes: notes*

Mon 25 Feb

Topic: Redundancy and Colinearity

Reading: SM §8.4, 8.5

Assignment: 8.RQ, 8.05, 8.12

In Class: Redundancy activity

Notes: notes*

Wed 27 Feb

Topic: Correlation and Partitioning, \( R^2 \)

Reading: SM Ch. 9

Assignment: 9.01, 9.02, 9.04, 9.05

In Class: Weekly Quiz

Notes: notes*

Fri 1 March

Topic: Correlation and Partitioning (continued)

Reading: SM Ch. 9 (review)

Assignment: 9.RQ, 9.10, 9.11, 9.12, 9.13, 9.21

Notes: notes*

Mon 4 March

Topic: Total and Partial Relationships

Reading: SM Ch. 10

Assignment: 9.22, 9.23, 10.01, 10.04, 10.10

In Class:

• Total versus Partial
• Form groups for the term project. Enter information about your project and group on this Google Doc so that the whole class can see. Also, to get a grade, every person should enter the names etc. here on Moodle

Notes: notes*

On Your Own: Is coffee good for you?

Wed 6 March

Topic: Total and Partial Relationships (continued)

Reading: SM Ch. 10 (review)

Assignment: 10.RQ, 10.05, 10.11, 10.12, 10.20

In Class: Weekly Quiz

Notes: notes*

Fri 8 March

Topic: Confidence Intervals on Coefficients

Reading: SM Ch. 12

Assignment: 10.21, 12.01, 12.02, 12.04, 12.05

Notes: notes*

Mon 11 March

Topic: Review for Exam

Reading:

Assignment: Review Problems

Notes: notes*

Wed 13 March

Mid-term Exam

Review Problems: without answers and then again, with answers

[Exam Answers and Grading Rubric] to be posted.

Fri 15 March

Topic: Probability Models

Reading: SM Ch. 11

Assignment: 11.RQ, 11.01, 11.02, 11.04, 11.05, 11.10, 11.21, 11.22

Notes: notes*

Mon 25 March

Topic Continuous Random Variables. Confidence Intervals on Coefficients.

Reading: Review SM Ch. 11. Start on SM Ch. 12

Assignment:

• 11.11, 11.30, 11.35, 11.37

Wed 27 March

Topic: Confidence Intervals on Coefficients (continued)

Reading: SM Ch. 12

Assignment: 12.RQ, 12.10, 12.12

In Class:

• Kaplan's section: Sign up for meeting to review your term project ideas. Sign-up sheet

Notes: notes*

Fri 29 March

Topic: Hypothesis Testing

Reading: SM Ch. 13

Assignment:

• 13.01

Notes: notes*

Mon 1 April

Topic: Hypothesis Testing (continued)

Reading: Review SM Ch. 13

Assignment:

• 13.RQ, 13.02
• Discuss your draft Survey Project with your instructor.

In Class: 13.15

On Your Own: An introduction to Bayes Theorem

Notes: notes*

On Your Own: The paper that won the 2012 Ignobel prize in neuroscience: On brain activity in a dead salmon

Wed 3 April

Topic: Testing Whole Models with \( R^2 \) and F

Reading: SM §14.1, 14.2, 14.3, 14.5

Assignment: 14.01, 14.02

In Class:

• 14.22

Notes: notes*

Fri 5 April

Topic: Interpreting the p-value

Reading:

• SM §14.4
• XKCD cartoon and another and yet another

Assignment: 14.RQ, 14.04, 14.05, 14.11, 14.12, 14.24

In Class: 14.21

Notes: notes*

On Your Own: Journalistic deficit disorder

Mon 8 April

Topic: Hypothesis Testing on Parts of Models

Reading: SM Ch. 15

Assignment: 15.RQ, 15.01

In Class: Evaluating your election result model

Notes: notes*

On Your Own: Dance of the p-values

Wed 10 April

Topic: Hypothesis Testing on Parts of Models (continued)

Reading: SM Ch. 15 (review)

Assignment: 15.02, 15.04, 15.05, 15.11

Notes: notes*

On Your Own: What is a p-value?

Fri 12 April

Topic: Choosing model terms

Reading: XKCD cartoon

Assignment: 15.12, 15.21

Notes: notes*

Mon 15 April

Topic: Non parametrics

Reading: XKCD cartoon on frequentist vs Bayesian

Assignment: *15.22

• Get final approval for your survey project from your instructor.

Notes: notes*

Toward the End of the Semester

You've now seen the core concepts and methods of statistical modeling. The rest of the semester is intended to help you review and solidify your understanding. We'll do this by using statistical models in three contexts:

1. Yes/No models — logistic regression. The aims here are to provide you with an important technique that employs the logic of statistical modeling but with a slightly different nomenclature.
2. Causation and the choice of covariates. You've seen how to choose model terms based on ideas from statistical inference and “evidence.” Now you'll see a new criterion for selecting model terms that respects what you believe is true about causation.
3. Experiment. The basic idea is to impose an intervention on a system and then analyzing the results. Experiments provide the most compelling form of evidence, yet they cannot always (or even often) be performed.
   

This is a good time to start to review. As we explore these new contexts, do the exercises from Chapter 15 to solidify your understanding of that basic material. These exercises will be due at the last class day.

Fri 19 April

Topic: Logistic regression

Reading: SM Ch. 16

Assignment:

In Class: Modeling Barry Bonds

Notes: notes*

Mon 22 April

Topic: Odds Ratios and Logistic regression

Reading: SM Ch. 16

In Class: Power and deer crossings

Notes: notes*

Wed 24 April

Topic: Power and the Alternative Hypothesis

In Class:

• Deer crossing … continued
• Processing Survey Data and the template itself: cut and paste from here
• The last weekly quiz

Notes: notes*

Fri 26 April

Topic: Power. Logistic Regression.

Reading:

• SM Ch. 16

Assignment:

• 16.RQ, 16.01, 16.02, 16.04 Due on May 10

In Class:

• Writing up your survey project in R/Markdown

On Your Own:

• Why most published research findings are false
• Advice on choosing a major to the tune of “A Modern Major General.” Listen here. See also the original from The Pirates of Penzance, an elemental version, and, without endorsement, a collection

Notes: notes*

Mon 29 April

Topic: Causation

Reading:

• SM Ch. 17
• XKCD cartoon

Assignment: 16.05, 16.10, 16.12 Due on May 10

In-Class: The Power of Vitamin D

Notes: notes*

<! – WEEK 13 –>

Wed 1 May

Topic: Causation

Reading:

• SM Ch. 17
• XKCD cartoon

Assignment: 17.RQ, 17.01, 17.02, 17.05 Due on May 10

Fri 3 May

Topic: Causation

Reading: SM Ch. 17 and XKCD cartoon

Assignment: 17.06, 17.07, 17.08, 17.10

In Class:

• Processing Google Form survey data in R. Notes and the Rmd file.
• The survey link itself: Send it to your Mac friends!

Mon 6 May

Topic: Experiment and Design

Reading: SM Ch. 18

Notes: notes*

Final Exam

• Review Materials