Guild: BaseDeltaZero
Updated: 03 June, 2018
Previous posts:

- Zeta material probabilities
- Bronzium probabilities part 1

In the last post I gave an overview of the proportions of the various categories of bronzium card draws in the more than three thousand draws I’ve recorded. In part 2 I show some of the details - the breakdown of shard and full character draws.

I’ve spent a few more ally points since last time. I’m not separating into the different accounts because – for shards and full characters – the data is insufficient to distinguish significant differences between accounts. Here’s the (not significantly different) updated summary:

Table 1: Total bronzium draws
Gear 3,075
Credit 347
Training droids 321
Shard 429
One star character 47
Two star character 26
Three star character 7
Four star character 3
Total 4,255

Which shards and full characters are you likely to find?

Of the 4255 total draws 429 were shards and 83 were full characters. 4* characters are obviously the most rare, but are some characters rarer than others regardless of star rating? Are all shards equally likely? Note: for you new players, the “star rating” is not how good a character is, but how many stars it would have at activation.

All full characters and character shards I’ve drawn so far:

Table 2: All full character and shard draws
Character Stars Full character Shard
Ahsoka Tano Two star 1 19
Barriss Offee Four star 0 7
Biggs Darklighter Two star 3 10
Boba Fett Four star 0 14
CT-5555 ‘Fives’ Three star 1 15
Clone Sergeant - Phase I Two star 5 10
Clone Wars Chewbacca Three star 0 11
Count Dooku Three star 0 9
Dathcha Four star 0 12
Ewok Elder Two star 2 22
Ewok Scout One star 13 18
General Veers Three star 0 14
Hoth Rebel Scout Three star 1 8
Hoth Rebel Soldier Three star 0 15
IG-100 MagnaGuard Two star 2 16
IG-86 Sentinel Droid One star 12 14
Ima-Gun Di Four star 0 12
Jawa Three star 0 10
Jedi Consular Two star 6 16
Jedi Knight Guardian Two star 4 21
Lobot Three star 2 12
Luminara Unduli Three star 1 7
Mace Windu Four star 0 16
Old Daka Four star 1 9
Plo Koon Three star 1 20
Poggle the Lesser Four star 0 10
Royal Guard One star 15 13
Snowtrooper One star 7 12
Stormtrooper Three star 0 14
Talia Three star 0 13
Teebo Two star 3 7
Tusken Raider Three star 1 8
URoRRuR’R’R Four star 2 15
‘Stars’ = number of stars at which a full character would be activated

The only obvious things are that one star full characters are more common than the others by a long way, and that there are similar numbers of shards for all characters. I think that all shards are approximately equally likely to be drawn and that all full characters are not.

To assess these hypotheses we assume that the probability of any drawing any character is the inverse of the total number of characters – that is that the probability of any character occurring is 1/33. Using this we can construct 95% confidence intervals and check to see that no more than ~5% of the data lie outside the interval. The ideas behind this are rather more complex and if that is relevant to your interests, find out more here.

In the shard group there are not enough results outside the 95% CI range to rule out the hypothesis that all characters are equally likely, so until we get data that proves otherwise we can assume that to be the case.

For full characters there are many results that lay outside the 95% confidence interval. It’s obvious that a one star full character is far more likely than a four star character.

In this case we make the assumption that the probability of any character occurring within a star category is a constant so that (for example) in the one star group each character has a probability of 1/4 occurring. Again we construct the confidence intervals in the same way.

Summary

Table 3: Summary of full character draws
Star category Total drawn Category size Pr. Category Pr. Character
One star 47 4 0.566 0.142
Two star 26 8 0.313 0.039
Three star 7 13 0.084 0.006
Four star 3 8 0.036 0.005
‘Pr. Category’ is the probability of a given category being drawn; ‘Pr. Character’ is the probability of a given full character from that category being drawn

Next time – when I get time – something that’s much more important to me: how much shard store currency can I expect per bronzium draw, and what’s the least and most I can expect?