This data set is the daily closing price of bitcoin from the 27th of April 2013 to the 3rd of March 2018 and sourced from coinmarketcap.
14/05/2018
This data set is the daily closing price of bitcoin from the 27th of April 2013 to the 3rd of March 2018 and sourced from coinmarketcap.
The series shows multiple micro trends ands lots of periods where the volatility is high and low. Possible existence of an ARCH effect. No sign of seasonality and observations are bouncing around particular mean levels.
We see obvious volatility, no sign of trend or seasonality
Test is highly significant
GARCH(1,1) has all significant coefficeints.
Call:
garch(x = r.bitcoin, order = c(1, 1), trace = FALSE)
Model:
GARCH(1,1)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-8.55811 -0.33740 0.06798 0.53194 4.76716
Coefficient(s):
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
a0 3.632e-05 3.816e-06 9.518 <2e-16 ***
a1 1.485e-01 9.555e-03 15.546 <2e-16 ***
b1 8.522e-01 7.025e-03 121.310 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Diagnostic Tests:
Jarque Bera Test
data: Residuals
X-squared = 5626.9, df = 2, p-value < 2.2e-16
Box-Ljung test
data: Squared.Residuals
X-squared = 1.7522, df = 1, p-value = 0.1856
df AIC model.11 3 -6633.729 model.22 5 -6604.584 model.33 7 -6597.135