Fleet challenge Omega and Zeta Material probabilities
Author: Oberon
Guild: BaseDeltaZero
Updated: 14 May, 2018
TL;DR
Mean and standard deviation of Material won per attempt:
Table 1: Summary of Zeta and Omega wins to date
|
|
|
Statistic
|
N
|
Mean
|
St. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
|
|
|
Ability Material Omega
|
287
|
0.254
|
0.530
|
0
|
2
|
|
Ability Material Zeta
|
287
|
0.641
|
0.669
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
Estimated binomial probabilities and confidence intervals:
Table 3: Estimated binomial probabilities and confidence intervals
|
|
|
Material
|
Estimated probability per trial
|
Lower est.
|
Upper est.
|
|
|
|
Omega
|
0.127
|
0.101
|
0.157
|
|
Zeta
|
0.321
|
0.283
|
0.360
|
|
|
Predicted cumulative materials and time taken?
Table 4: Number of weeks predicted for 20 Zetas or Omegas
|
|
|
|
Best case
|
Average
|
Worst case
|
|
|
|
Omega
|
7.2
|
12.8
|
21.3
|
|
Zeta
|
3.2
|
5.2
|
8.2
|
|
|
Table 5: Number of Zetas/Omegas predicted for four weeks
|
|
|
|
Best case
|
Average
|
Worst case
|
|
|
|
Omega
|
13
|
6.1
|
1
|
|
Zeta
|
24
|
15.4
|
7
|
|
|
