GDP & Population

Overall GDP Analysis

From the first plot, we can see that population has been growing steadily while GDP surged in 1992. It is because Chinese Communist Party’ held its 14th Central Conference in 1992, which marked the formation of Chinese Reform and Opening up. So the results have shown up in economic data.

By region, Eastern Coastal China has the biggest average GDP.

GDP and Population over Differet Areas

For thisplot, I displayed population and GDP over all provinces in one plot. The size of circles indicates GDP size. The circles in the same color are from same areas, like East, South, North.

Some provinces have outstanding performances, including Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang. All of them are from East and South coastal provinces. Henan has the largest population.

I also plotted a fitting line. It seems that population and GDP is related in linear regression. Overall, larger population indicates bigger GDP size. However, the actual situations of each province also matter.

Mapping

## OGR data source with driver: ESRI Shapefile 
## Source: "china_shapefile", layer: "bou2_4p"
## with 925 features
## It has 7 fields
## Integer64 fields read as strings:  BOU2_4M_ BOU2_4M_ID

Import/Export

Overall Import/Export

Before 1985, both export and import of China is very close to 0. Then at the year of 1993, both of them began to increase sharply.

The Effect of Chinese Economic Reform

Why is it so? Let’s see the effect of Chinese Economic Reform. CER is one of the most important enactment in Modern Chinese history. We can see that before 1978, the amount of export/import fluctuates a lot. While after 1978, both of them began to increase, first smoothly then sharply.

Net Export?

The overall trend of net export appeared a similar pattern.

Net Export by Region

When looking at net export by economic region, we can see that coastal area of China accounts for most of the net export. Beijing, however, is pretty special, since its net export is always negative, and constantly decreasing.

GDP by Region

Industry Structure

Chinese Industry Structure Change over years

Above are the plots of the Primary/Secondary/Tertiary Industry of Growth and we enlarged the plots before and after 1978, the year we had Chinese Economic Reform. We can see the rapid development after 1978.

Proportion of Each Industry Make Up For The Yearly Total GDP

Primary industry is declining for the proportion, while secondary industry is growing up. Now, the dominant industry is secondary industry. Chinese policy of transferring from traditional agricultural country to modern industrial country has received a big success.

Policy Study

Text Mining of the Government Report of 2002 (One Year After China Joined WTO)

## # A tibble: 11,216 x 2
##        word     n
##       <chr> <int>
##  1    of th   153
##  2       NA   135
##  3   we hav   132
##  4  need to   113
##  5   we wil    97
##  6   and th    96
##  7    we ne    87
##  8    in th    76
##  9    to th    58
## 10 has been    41
## # ... with 11,206 more rows
## # A tibble: 3,700 x 3
##       word1    word2     n
##       <chr>    <chr> <int>
##  1       NA     <NA>   135
##  2     past      fiv    21
##  3    china             16
##  4  central committe    14
##  5  central   govern    14
##  6    local   govern    14
##  7     hong     kong    13
##  8  western   region    13
##  9    china       ha    12
## 10 economic   growth    11
## # ... with 3,690 more rows
## # A tibble: 4,892 x 3
##     file line_number                  word
##    <chr>       <int>                 <chr>
##  1 a2002           1     national committe
##  2 a2002           1       chinese people'
##  3 a2002           1        people's polit
##  4 a2002           1     political consult
##  5 a2002           1   consultative confer
##  6 a2002           3       volatile intern
##  7 a2002           3    international situ
##  8 a2002           3         situation und
##  9 a2002           3       communist parti
## 10 a2002           3 surmounted difficulti
## # ... with 4,882 more rows

We know that the western region was underdeveloped. Obviously, the Chinese government was aware of this problem as well. So in the year of 2000, China launched a “Western Development” plan. The authority started to paying attention to western China. This can be demonstrated by the frequent appearance of the words “western region” in the 2002 government report.

Summary

Population and GDP grow in the same pattern, but the national GDP started to increase rapidly beginning from 1992.

Unbalanced development: In terms of GDP and trade surplus, the eastern China outperforms the western part.

China’s industrial structure has experienced great changes. In the past 60 years, the country’s dominant industry has changed from the raw materials sector to the manufacturing sector. The tertiary sector is dominant in cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Tibet.