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The audience for this story-telling blog would be individuals interested in forming a global perspective on climate change.

I wanted to look into whether there was any disparity between the countries who were largely responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, and those countries who were experiencing the fastest rates of temperature increase.

My hypothesis is that countries who contribute the most (and have more resources to combat climate change), are the ones being impacted the least. For governments to make meaningful change, their constituents need to have their daily lives disrupted by climate change. If I’m able to show that countries who contribute the most, actually impact others more, I am hoping people will be motivated to pressure their governments to take more action before it is too late.

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Who is responsible?

I have made a selection 30 high, middle and low income countries (see Appendix) to investigate how they contributed to greenhouse gas emissions.

Additionally, the plot above also reveals:

• Canada bucked the trend for high income countries increasing their emissions per capita between 1990 and 2013.
  
• Despite years of indecisive energy policy, Australia has managed to decrease its per capita greenhouse gas emissions, despite having started from one of the highest rates in the world in 1990.
  
• As China experienced rapid economic development between 1990 and 2013, growth in emissions per capita has followed. China is an interesting case however, as in recent years they have been very proactive in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions through strict environmental policies and switching to renewable energy technologies.

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Who is impacted?

Below I have visualised 10 of the 21 countries sampled, based on their relative increase in average temperature, across four periods of approximately 25 years. I’m interested in looking at whether both average temperatures have increased, and also whether their extreme minimums and maximums have changed.

Additionally:

• There is some evidence to suggest that these countries are also experiencing more extreme temperature variations. The whiskers on Eritrea have widened; the upper whiskers on South Africa, Thailand and Mexico have lengthened while the lower whiskers have remained relatively stable.
  
• 13 out of the top 15 (see appendix for all 30) are middle and low income countries. This lends evidence to my original hypothesis that those countries who were contributing the most greenhouse gases per capita, have suffered the least effects of rising temperatures, than those who had contributed less.

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Appendices

Data Sources

1. NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature
   
2. Forcings in GISS Climate Models-Data
   
3. Forcings in GISS Climate Models-Model Information
   
4. Global Land Temperatures by Country
   
5. GDP per capita - World Bank
   
6. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita

Further information on factors influencing climate

• Aerosols (Human) - sulfate aerosols from the burning of coal
  
• Greenhouse gases (Human) - gases such as Carbon Dioxide and Methane
  
• Land use (Human) - how humans use the land (deforestation, agriculture)
  
• Ozone (Human) - compound created by pollution
  
• Orbital (Natural) - how Earth’s rotational change influences temperature.
  
• Solar (Natural) - solar radation’s influence on temperature.
  
• Volcanic (Natural) - how global volcanic activity influences temperature.

Countries selected

1. High income - Switzerland, Sweden, Australia, Singapore, Canada, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, New Zealand
   
2. Middle income - Peru, Thailand, China, Fiji, South Africa, Mexico, Belarus, Vietnam, Angola, Sri Lanka
   
3. Low income - Nepal, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Rwanda, Togo, Eritrea, Haiti, Malawi, Benin, Myanmar

Full Box & Whisker