Data 605 Discussion 12

Who shot first: Han or Greedo?

a multiple logit regression

Data is obtained from the 538 site’s data repository and is found at: fivethirtyeight.com/features/americas-favorite-star-wars-movies-and-least-favorite-characters/

An occasional debate among Star Wars fans is whether, in the first movie released, Han Shot first or Greedo did.

A poll was taken by 538 on people’s feelings about Star Wars movies and Star Wars characters. The most surprising result from our analysis is that respondents’ feelings about Han Solo seem not to be colored by whether they believe Han shot first or Greedo did.

The most statistically significant variable we found was a multiple of people’s feelings on Anakin Skywalker and their feelings about the Phantom Menace. We put these variables together because they are likely to be correlated with each other.

We also found out that age is a statistically significant factor and that significance is strengthened if we put groups in a non-ordinal order. The two lowest age groups are most likely to have experienced one of the trilogies as a child. When we give them the furthest separated scores, we get the most significance.

Both models have very high significance by the chi-squared test. Our larger model has a lower AIC value. But the more spare model has significance at .05 for all three variables. It has a p-value of 8.094944e-08 for its chi-square test.

for (i in 1:1186){anakin.times.menace[i]<-(feelings.on.anakin[i]*phantom.menace.ranking[i])}
glmResults<-glm(who.shot.first ~  feelings.on.vader+feelings.on.lando+feelings.on.han+feelings.on.jarjar+
star.trek.fan+family.income+empire.strikes.back.ranking+rearranged.age.group+anakin.times.menace, family="binomial")
summary(glmResults)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = who.shot.first ~ feelings.on.vader + feelings.on.lando + 
##     feelings.on.han + feelings.on.jarjar + star.trek.fan + family.income + 
##     empire.strikes.back.ranking + rearranged.age.group + anakin.times.menace, 
##     family = "binomial")
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.0477  -1.2126   0.7214   0.9893   1.5020  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                              Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                  0.129921   1.459340   0.089   0.9291    
## feelings.on.vader            0.150473   0.082569   1.822   0.0684 .  
## feelings.on.lando           -0.081140   0.132237  -0.614   0.5395    
## feelings.on.han             -0.081558   0.217789  -0.374   0.7080    
## feelings.on.jarjar           0.059467   0.090010   0.661   0.5088    
## star.trek.fan               -0.136520   0.235906  -0.579   0.5628    
## family.income               -0.004766   0.096987  -0.049   0.9608    
## empire.strikes.back.ranking  0.047023   0.086379   0.544   0.5862    
## rearranged.age.group        -0.168207   0.100297  -1.677   0.0935 .  
## anakin.times.menace          0.079291   0.019584   4.049 5.15e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 479.23  on 361  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 452.52  on 352  degrees of freedom
##   (824 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 472.52
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
1-pchisq(479.23 , 361)
## [1] 2.923399e-05
1-pchisq(452.47 ,352)
## [1] 0.0002316682
1-pchisq(479.23-452.47 ,361-352)
## [1] 0.001532475
glmResults<-glm(who.shot.first ~feelings.on.vader+rearranged.age.group+anakin.times.menace, family="binomial")
summary(glmResults)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = who.shot.first ~ feelings.on.vader + rearranged.age.group + 
##     anakin.times.menace, family = "binomial")
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.0274  -1.2245   0.7174   0.9817   1.4447  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                      Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -0.34702    0.34259  -1.013  0.31109    
## feelings.on.vader     0.19670    0.06394   3.077  0.00209 ** 
## rearranged.age.group -0.19856    0.08573  -2.316  0.02056 *  
## anakin.times.menace   0.06919    0.01511   4.580 4.65e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 650.36  on 492  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 612.35  on 489  degrees of freedom
##   (693 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 620.35
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
1-pchisq(650.36 , 492)
## [1] 2.005601e-06
1-pchisq(614.52 , 489 )
## [1] 9.389717e-05
1-pchisq(650.36-614.52 , 492-489)
## [1] 8.094944e-08