Data605 HW6

1.A box contains 54 red marbles, 9 white marbles, and 75 blue marbles. If a marble is randomly selected from the box,what is the probability that it is red or blue? Express your answer as a fraction or a decimal number rounded to four decimal places.

My Answer:

R: 54 ; W:9 ; B:75

Pr (R or B) = \(\frac{54+75}{54+9+75}\) = \(\frac{54+75}{54+9+75}\) =0.9348


2.You are going to play mini golf. A ball machine that contains 19 green golf balls, 20 red golf balls, 24 blue golf balls, and 17 yellow golf balls, randomly gives you your ball. What is the probability that you end up with a red golf ball? Express your answer as a simplified fraction or a decimal rounded to four decimal places.

My Answer:

G: 19 ; R: 20 ; B:24 ; Y: 17

{Total balls= 19+20+24+17 = 80}

Imagice there are 80 spots in a line, and firstly I place a red ball at the end of the line. The rest 79 balls can randomly palce on a line. The numbers of ways to place 4 colors balls can use combination method.

\(\binom {79}{19}\) : From the rest 79 spots, I ramdomly pick 19 spots for Green color balls.

\(\binom {60}{19}\) : From the rest 60 spots, I ramdomly pick 19 spots for the rest of Red color balls.

\(\binom {41}{24}\) : From the rest 41 spots, I ramdomly pick 24 spots for the rest of Blue color balls.

\(\binom {17}{17}\) : From the rest 17 spots are for 17 Yellow balls, actually there is no other option for Yellow spots, it only has one way.

So the number of the way with red ball at the end can be calculated as \(\binom {79}{19} * \binom {60}{19} * \binom {41}{24}\)

For the same process, the number of the way to rearrange 80 balls will be

\(\binom {80}{19} * \binom {61}{20} * \binom {42}{24}\)

Answer :

\(\frac{number of the ways have red at end}{total number of ways in arrange}\)

= \(\frac{\binom {79}{19} * \binom {60}{19} * \binom {41}{24}}{\binom {80}{19} * \binom {61}{20} * \binom {42}{24}}\)

= \(\frac{\binom {79}{{(79-19)}!19!} * \binom {60!}{{(60-19)}!19!} * \binom {41!}{{(41-24)!}24!}}{\binom {80}{{80-19}!19!} * \binom {61!}{{(61-20)}!20!}* \binom {42}{{(42-24)!}24!}}\)

= \(\frac{\frac{79!}{60!19!} * \frac {60!}{41!19!} * \frac{41!}{17!24!}}{\frac {80!}{61!19!} *\frac{61!}{41!20} * \frac{42!}{18!24}}\)

= \(\frac{18*20}{80*42}\)

= 0.1071


3.A pizza delivery company classifies its customers by gender and location of residence. The research department has gathered data from a random sample of 1399 customers. The data is summarized in the table below.

Gender and Residence of Customers
Males Females
Apartment 81 228
Dorm 116 79
With Parent(s) 215 252
Sorority/Fraternity House 130 97
Other 129 72

What is the probability that a customer is not male or does not live with parents? Write your answer as a fraction or a decimal number rounded to four decimal places.

My Answer:

Since Not man: 228+79+252+97+72=728 since not With parents: 81+116+130+129 = 456

\(Pr(Not man or not With parents)\) =\(\frac{728+456}{1399}\) = 0.8463


4. Determine if the following events are independent. Going to the gym. Losing weight.

Answer: A)Dependent B)Independent

My Answer:

Event A : Going to the gym.

Event B : Losing weight.

Event A and B could be dependent if acting is same person.

Event A and B could be independent if acting is not a same person.


5. A veggie wrap at City Subs is composed of 3 different vegetables and 3 different condiments wrapped up in a tortilla. If there are 8 vegetables, 7 condiments, and 3 types of tortilla available, how many different veggie wraps can be made?

My Answer:

\({\binom {8}{3} * \binom {7}{3} * \binom {3}{1}}\)

= \({\frac{8!}{5!3!} * \frac{7!}{4!3!} * \frac{3!}{2!1!}}\)

= 5880


6. Determine if the following events are independent. Jeff runs out of gas on the way to work. Liz watches the evening news.

Answer: A)Dependent B)Independent

My Answer

Event A: Jeff runs out of gas on the way to work.

Event B: Liz watches the evening news.

Even A and Event B are indepent, since A and B are different people in different actions.


7. The newly elected president needs to decide the remaining 8 spots available in the cabinet he/she is appointing. If there are 14 eligible candidates for these positions (where rank matters), how many different ways can the members of the cabinet be appointed?

\(\binom {14}{8}\) : Selceting 8 people from the 18 spots \(8!\) : rank matters

My answer= $ * 8! $ = 121080960


8. A bag contains 9 red, 4 orange, and 9 green jellybeans. What is the probability of reaching into the bag and randomly withdrawing 4 jellybeans such that the number of red ones is 0, the number of orange ones is 1, and the number of green ones is 3? Write your answer as a fraction or a decimal number rounded to four decimal places.

My answer: = \(\frac{\binom {4}{1} * \binom {9}{3}} {\binom {22}{4}}\)

= \(\frac{{\frac{4!}{3!1!}} * {\frac{9!}{6!3!}}} {\frac{22!}{18!4!}}\)

= 0.05


9. Evaluate the following expression.

= \(\frac{11!}{7!}\) = \(\frac{11*10*9*....*3*2*1}{7*6*5*....*3*2*1}\) = \(11*10*9*8\) = 7920


10. Describe the complement of the given event. 67% of subscribers to a fitness magazine are over the age of 34.

My Answer:

\(A'\) : 33% of subscribers to a fitness magazine are the age of 34 or younger.


11. If you throw exactly three heads in four tosses of a coin you win $97. If not, you pay me $30.

Step 1. Find the expected value of the proposition. Round your answer to two decimal places.

My answer:

Event A : exactly three heads in four tosses Event A’: is complement of A

Pr(A)= \({\frac{\binom {4}{3}}{2^4}}\) = \({\frac{4}{16}}\) = 0.25

=> Pr(A’) = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75

E(X) = \(97* Pr(A)+ (-30.11) * Pr(A')\) = \(97 * 0.25+ (-30) * 0.75\) = 1.75


Step 2. If you played this game 559 times how much would you expect to win or lose? (Losses must be entered as negative.)

My Answer:

E(x) = 1.75*559 = 978.25

expect to win 978.25.


12. Flip a coin 9 times. If you get 4 tails or less, I will pay you $23. Otherwise you pay me $26.

Step 1. Find the expected value of the proposition. Round your answer to two decimal places.

My answer:

Event A : 4 tails or less in flipping a coin 9 times

Pr(A)= \(\sum {Pr(0) + Pr(1) +Pr(2) + Pr(3) + Pr(4) }\) = \({\frac{\binom {9}{0}}{2^9}} + {\frac{\binom {9}{1}}{2^9}} + {\frac{\binom {9}{2}}{2^9}} + {\frac{\binom {9}{3}}{2^9}} + {\frac{\binom {9}{4}}{2^9}}\) = \({\frac{1+9+36+84+126}{512}}\) = 0.5

=> Pr(A’) = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5

E(X) = \(23 * Pr(A)+ (-26) * Pr(A')\) = \(23 * 0.5+ (-26) * 0.5\) = -1.5


Step 2. If you played this game 994 times how much would you expect to win or lose? (Losses must be entered as negative.)

My Answer:

E(x) = 994 * (-1.5) = -1491

expect to lose 1491.


13. The sensitivity and specificity of the polygraph has been a subject of study and debate for years. A 2001 study of the use of polygraph for screening purposes suggested that the probability of detecting a liar was .59 (sensitivity) and that the probability of detecting a “truth teller” was .90 (specificity). We estimate that about 20% of individuals selected for the screening polygraph will lie.

a. What is the probability that an individual is actually a liar given that the polygraph detected him/her as such? (Show me the table or the formulaic solution or both.)

My Answer:

Since liar is 0.2, then true will be 0.8.

Infomation
————- True liar
Dect True Real True = 0.72 False Liar = 0.082
Dect Liar False True = 0.08 Real Liar =0.118
Total 0.8 0.2 1.0

Sensitivity :

\({\frac{RL}{RL+FL}}\) = 0.59

Specificity :

\({\frac{RT}{RT+FT}}\)= 0.9

FL+RL = 0.2

RT+FT = 0.8

=> RL = 0.2*0.59 = 0.118

=> FL = 0.2 - 0.118 = 0.082

=> RT = 0.8*0.9 = 0.72

=> RL = 0.8 - 0.72 = 0.08

Pr(liar | D_liar) =\(\frac{Pr(Real.liar\_n\_Dect.liar)}{Pr(Dect_liar)}\) =\(\frac {0.118}{0.118+0.08}\) =0.0.59596


b. What is the probability that an individual is actually a truth-teller given that the polygraph detected him/her as such? (Show me the table or the formulaic solution or both.)

Pr(True | D_True) =\(\frac{Pr(True\_n\_Dect.True)}{Pr(Dect.True)}\) =\(\frac {0.72}{0.72+0.082}\) =0.89776


c. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is either a liar or was identified as a liar by the polygraph? Be sure to write the probability statement.

Pr(liar or D_liar) = Pr(liar) + Pr(Dect_liar) - Pr(liar n Dect_lair) =0.2 + 0.198 - 0.118 =0.28