Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


Pre-Bracket Bubble Predictions

Here are the final rankings before the bracket is released. If you go solely by these rankings (which you shouldn’t do!), then Nebraska, Baylor, and Louisville will make the tournament. Baylor and Louisville may have a shot, but Nebraska… no. The teams that my rankings hate are Missouri, Alabama, and USC. However, these three teams are likely to make the bracket, so I disagree with my rankings here. Specifically, my personal bubble projections are different from these rankings in three ways: I have Alabama, Missouri, and USC IN and Nebraska, Baylor, and Louisville OUT. Other than that, I agree with the rankings’ selections (including the inclusions of Oklahoma, St. Mary’s, and UCLA, and the exclusion of OK State, Marquette, Mid Tennessee, and Syracuse).

This includes all games through Sunday, March 11th:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Virginia 17.25 31-2 (20-1) 1
2 Villanova 10.5 30-4 (17-4) 2
3 Kansas 9 27-7 (16-5) 7
4 North Carolina 7 25-10 (14-8) 9
5 Michigan State 6.25 29-4 (17-3) 4
6 Purdue 6.25 28-6 (17-4) 6
7 Xavier 6 28-5 (16-4) 3
8 Duke 5.75 26-7 (14-6) 5
9 Michigan 5 28-7 (17-5) 8
10 Cincinnati 4.5 30-4 (19-2) 11
11 West Virginia 3 24-10 (13-8) 15
12 Gonzaga 2.75 30-4 (20-1) 10
13 Tennessee 2.5 25-8 (15-6) 12
14 Texas Tech 2 24-9 (12-8) 13
15 Clemson 0.25 23-9 (12-8) 14
16 Kentucky -0.25 24-10 (13-8) 19
17 Ohio State -1 24-8 (15-4) 17
18 Auburn -2 25-7 (13-6) 16
19 Houston -2.5 26-7 (16-5) 22
20 Wichita St -2.75 25-7 (15-5) 20
21 Miami -3 22-9 (11-8) 18
22 Arizona -3.5 27-7 (17-4) 24
23 Kansas State -4 22-11 (11-9) T29
24 NC State -5.5 21-11 (11-8) 21
25 TCU -5.75 21-11 (9-10) 26
26 Florida -6 20-12 (11-8) 23
27 St Marys -6.25 28-5 (17-3) 28
28 Seton Hall -6.5 21-11 (10-9) 25
29 Arkansas -7 23-11 (12-9) 37
30 Florida State -7 20-11 (9-10) 27
31 Virginia Tech -7.25 21-11 (10-9) T29
32 Texas AM -7.25 20-12 (9-10) 33
33 Creighton -7.5 21-11 (10-9) 32
34 Butler -7.5 20-13 (10-10) 39
35 Texas -7.5 19-14 (9-11) 38
36 Oklahoma -7.75 18-13 (8-11) 35
37 Rhode Island -8 25-7 (17-4) 31
38 St Bonaventure -8.5 25-7 (15-5) 34
39 UCLA -8.5 21-11 (12-8) 43
40 New Mexico St -8.75 28-5 (15-2) 41
41 Nebraska -8.75 22-10 (13-6) 45
42 Providence -8.75 21-13 (12-9) 53
43 Nevada -9 27-7 (16-4) 36
44 Baylor -9 18-14 (8-11) 40
45 Louisville -9.25 20-13 (10-10) 46
46 OK State -9.25 19-14 (9-11) 47
47 South Dakota St -9.5 28-6 (16-1) NA
48 Marquette -9.75 19-13 (10-10) 42
49 Murray St -9.75 26-5 (18-2) 50
50 Loy Chic -10 28-5 (18-3) 48
51 Mississippi St -10.5 22-11 (10-10) 51
52 Syracuse -11 20-13 (9-11) 52
53 Mid Tennessee -11.75 24-7 (16-3) 44
54 Arizona St -11.75 20-11 (8-11) 49
55 Missouri -12.75 20-12 (10-9) 54
56 Notre Dame -12.75 20-14 (10-11) 56
57 UL Lafayette -13 27-6 (17-3) 55
58 USC -13.5 23-11 (13-7) 61
59 Penn State -13.5 21-13 (11-10) 62
60 Alabama -13.75 19-15 (10-11) 60
61 Maryland -13.75 19-13 (8-11) 63
62 Boise St -14 23-8 (13-6) 57
63 Utah -14 19-11 (11-8) 59
64 Montana -14.25 26-7 (19-2) NA
65 Vermont -14.75 26-7 (16-2) 58
66 Stephen F Austin -14.75 28-6 (17-4) NA
67 Old Dominion -15.5 25-7 (16-4) 64
68 Boston College -15.5 18-15 (9-12) 67
69 UNC Greensboro -15.5 27-7 (17-3) 70
70 BYU -15.75 24-10 (13-8) 65
71 Buffalo -15.75 26-8 (18-3) 72
72 Davidson -16 21-11 (16-5) 74
73 Oregon -16 22-12 (12-9) 66
74 Charleston -16 26-7 (17-4) NA
75 Georgia -16.25 18-14 (9-11) 68
76 LSU -17.25 17-14 (8-11) 69
77 Washington -17.5 20-12 (10-9) 71
78 W Kentucky -17.5 24-10 (16-5) 73
79 ETSU -17.75 25-8 (16-4) 77
80 Penn -18.25 24-8 (14-2) NA
81 UCF -18.25 19-13 (10-10) 76
82 San Diego St -18.5 22-10 (14-7) 80
83 South Carolina -19.25 17-16 (8-12) 75
84 Bucknell -19.5 25-9 (19-2) NA
85 Marshall -19.5 24-10 (15-6) NA
86 Stanford -19.75 18-15 (12-8) 78
87 Indiana -19.75 16-15 (9-10) 81
88 Temple -20 17-15 (9-11) 84
89 St Johns -20.25 16-17 (5-15) 83
90 Wisconsin -20.5 15-18 (8-12) 85
91 Tulsa -20.75 19-12 (12-7) 79
92 Lipscomb -20.75 23-9 (13-4) 86
93 Georgetown -21.5 15-15 (5-14) 82
94 Colorado -21.75 17-15 (9-11) 88
95 Wright St -22.25 25-9 (17-4) NA
96 Iowa State -22.25 13-18 (4-15) 89
97 Memphis -22.75 21-13 (12-9) 91
98 SMU -22.75 17-16 (7-13) 90
99 Fresno St -23 21-11 (11-8) 87
100 Northwestern -23.5 15-17 (6-13) 92
101 UMBC -23.5 24-10 (15-4) NA
102 Georgia St -25 24-10 (15-6) NA
103 UNLV -25.75 20-13 (9-11) 93
104 Oregon State -26.5 16-16 (8-12) 96
105 Minnesota -26.5 15-17 (4-15) 98
106 Vanderbilt -26.5 12-20 (6-13) 94
107 Uconn -26.5 14-18 (7-12) 95
108 CS Fullerton -26.75 20-11 (13-6) NA
109 Georgia Tech -28 13-19 (6-13) 97
110 Radford -28 22-12 (15-6) 100
111 Iowa -28.5 14-19 (5-15) 102
112 Illinois -29 14-18 (4-15) 105
113 Wake Forest -29.25 11-20 (4-15) 99
114 Ole Miss -30.25 12-20 (5-14) 101
115 DePaul -30.25 11-20 (4-15) 103
116 VCU -30.25 18-15 (10-10) 104
117 Rutgers -31 15-19 (5-16) 107
118 Iona -31.5 20-13 (14-7) 108
119 St Josephs -33.25 16-16 (11-9) 106
120 Saint Louis -35.75 17-16 (10-10) 110
T121 Tulane -36 14-17 (5-14) 111
T121 Dayton -36 14-17 (8-11) 109
123 G Mason -37 15-16 (9-9) 115
124 Washington St -38 12-19 (4-15) 114
125 G Washington -39.25 16-18 (9-12) 112
126 La Salle -39.5 13-19 (7-12) 113
127 Duquense -40 16-16 (7-12) 116
128 Texas Southern -41 15-19 (15-6) NA
129 Pittsburgh -42.25 8-24 (0-19) 117
130 NC Central -42.75 19-15 (13-7) NA
131 LIU Brooklyn -44.5 18-16 (13-8) NA
132 Richmond -45.25 12-20 (10-10) 118
133 Umass -47.5 13-20 (6-14) 119
134 E Carolina -48.5 10-20 (4-15) 121
135 California -48.75 8-24 (2-17) 120
136 S Florida -53.75 10-22 (3-16) 123
137 Fordham -55 9-22 (4-15) 122



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 -5.15
2 ACC -9.3667
3 Big East -9.55
4 SEC -11.8929
5 Big 10 -14.1607
6 Other -18.8125
7 Pac 12 -19.9583
8 Amer -22.5
9 A10 -33.6607



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Virginia 17.25 31-2 (20-1) 1
2 North Carolina 7 25-10 (14-8) 4
3 Duke 5.75 26-7 (14-6) 8
4 Clemson 0.25 23-9 (12-8) 15
5 Miami -3 22-9 (11-8) 21
6 NC State -5.5 21-11 (11-8) 24
7 Florida State -7 20-11 (9-10) 30
8 Virginia Tech -7.25 21-11 (10-9) 31
9 Louisville -9.25 20-13 (10-10) 45
10 Syracuse -11 20-13 (9-11) 52
11 Notre Dame -12.75 20-14 (10-11) 56
12 Boston College -15.5 18-15 (9-12) 68
13 Georgia Tech -28 13-19 (6-13) 109
14 Wake Forest -29.25 11-20 (4-15) 113
15 Pittsburgh -42.25 8-24 (0-19) 129


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Michigan State 6.25 29-4 (17-3) 5
2 Purdue 6.25 28-6 (17-4) 6
3 Michigan 5 28-7 (17-5) 9
4 Ohio State -1 24-8 (15-4) 17
5 Nebraska -8.75 22-10 (13-6) 41
6 Penn State -13.5 21-13 (11-10) 59
7 Maryland -13.75 19-13 (8-11) 61
8 Indiana -19.75 16-15 (9-10) 87
9 Wisconsin -20.5 15-18 (8-12) 90
10 Northwestern -23.5 15-17 (6-13) 100
11 Minnesota -26.5 15-17 (4-15) 105
12 Iowa -28.5 14-19 (5-15) 111
13 Illinois -29 14-18 (4-15) 112
14 Rutgers -31 15-19 (5-16) 117


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Tennessee 2.5 25-8 (15-6) 13
2 Kentucky -0.25 24-10 (13-8) 16
3 Auburn -2 25-7 (13-6) 18
4 Florida -6 20-12 (11-8) 26
5 Arkansas -7 23-11 (12-9) 29
6 Texas AM -7.25 20-12 (9-10) 32
7 Mississippi St -10.5 22-11 (10-10) 51
8 Missouri -12.75 20-12 (10-9) 55
9 Alabama -13.75 19-15 (10-11) 60
10 Georgia -16.25 18-14 (9-11) 75
11 LSU -17.25 17-14 (8-11) 76
12 South Carolina -19.25 17-16 (8-12) 83
13 Vanderbilt -26.5 12-20 (6-13) 106
14 Ole Miss -30.25 12-20 (5-14) 114


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Kansas 9 27-7 (16-5) 3
2 West Virginia 3 24-10 (13-8) 11
3 Texas Tech 2 24-9 (12-8) 14
4 Kansas State -4 22-11 (11-9) 23
5 TCU -5.75 21-11 (9-10) 25
6 Texas -7.5 19-14 (9-11) 35
7 Oklahoma -7.75 18-13 (8-11) 36
8 Baylor -9 18-14 (8-11) 44
9 OK State -9.25 19-14 (9-11) 46
10 Iowa State -22.25 13-18 (4-15) 96


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona -3.5 27-7 (17-4) 22
2 UCLA -8.5 21-11 (12-8) 39
3 Arizona St -11.75 20-11 (8-11) 54
4 USC -13.5 23-11 (13-7) 58
5 Utah -14 19-11 (11-8) 63
6 Oregon -16 22-12 (12-9) 73
7 Washington -17.5 20-12 (10-9) 77
8 Stanford -19.75 18-15 (12-8) 86
9 Colorado -21.75 17-15 (9-11) 94
10 Oregon State -26.5 16-16 (8-12) 104
11 Washington St -38 12-19 (4-15) 124
12 California -48.75 8-24 (2-17) 135


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Cincinnati 4.5 30-4 (19-2) 10
2 Houston -2.5 26-7 (16-5) 19
3 Wichita St -2.75 25-7 (15-5) 20
4 UCF -18.25 19-13 (10-10) 81
5 Temple -20 17-15 (9-11) 88
6 Tulsa -20.75 19-12 (12-7) 91
T7 Memphis -22.75 21-13 (12-9) 97
T7 SMU -22.75 17-16 (7-13) 98
9 Uconn -26.5 14-18 (7-12) 107
10 Tulane -36 14-17 (5-14) T121
11 E Carolina -48.5 10-20 (4-15) 134
12 S Florida -53.75 10-22 (3-16) 136


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 10.5 30-4 (17-4) 2
2 Xavier 6 28-5 (16-4) 7
3 Seton Hall -6.5 21-11 (10-9) 28
4 Creighton -7.5 21-11 (10-9) 33
5 Butler -7.5 20-13 (10-10) 34
6 Providence -8.75 21-13 (12-9) 42
7 Marquette -9.75 19-13 (10-10) 48
8 St Johns -20.25 16-17 (5-15) 89
9 Georgetown -21.5 15-15 (5-14) 93
10 DePaul -30.25 11-20 (4-15) 115


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island -8 25-7 (17-4) 37
2 St Bonaventure -8.5 25-7 (15-5) 38
3 Davidson -16 21-11 (16-5) 72
4 VCU -30.25 18-15 (10-10) 116
5 St Josephs -33.25 16-16 (11-9) 119
6 Saint Louis -35.75 17-16 (10-10) 120
7 Dayton -36 14-17 (8-11) T121
8 G Mason -37 15-16 (9-9) 123
9 G Washington -39.25 16-18 (9-12) 125
10 La Salle -39.5 13-19 (7-12) 126
11 Duquense -40 16-16 (7-12) 127
12 Richmond -45.25 12-20 (10-10) 132
13 Umass -47.5 13-20 (6-14) 133
14 Fordham -55 9-22 (4-15) 137


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 2.75 30-4 (20-1) 12
2 St Marys -6.25 28-5 (17-3) 27
3 New Mexico St -8.75 28-5 (15-2) 40
4 Nevada -9 27-7 (16-4) 43
5 South Dakota St -9.5 28-6 (16-1) 47
6 Murray St -9.75 26-5 (18-2) 49
7 Loy Chic -10 28-5 (18-3) 50
8 Mid Tennessee -11.75 24-7 (16-3) 53
9 UL Lafayette -13 27-6 (17-3) 57
10 Boise St -14 23-8 (13-6) 62
11 Montana -14.25 26-7 (19-2) 64
12 Vermont -14.75 26-7 (16-2) 65
13 Stephen F Austin -14.75 28-6 (17-4) 66
14 Old Dominion -15.5 25-7 (16-4) 67
15 UNC Greensboro -15.5 27-7 (17-3) 69
16 BYU -15.75 24-10 (13-8) 70
17 Buffalo -15.75 26-8 (18-3) 71
18 Charleston -16 26-7 (17-4) 74
19 W Kentucky -17.5 24-10 (16-5) 78
20 ETSU -17.75 25-8 (16-4) 79
21 Penn -18.25 24-8 (14-2) 80
22 San Diego St -18.5 22-10 (14-7) 82
T23 Bucknell -19.5 25-9 (19-2) 84
T23 Marshall -19.5 24-10 (15-6) 85
25 Lipscomb -20.75 23-9 (13-4) 92
26 Wright St -22.25 25-9 (17-4) 95
27 Fresno St -23 21-11 (11-8) 99
28 UMBC -23.5 24-10 (15-4) 101
29 Georgia St -25 24-10 (15-6) 102
30 UNLV -25.75 20-13 (9-11) 103
31 CS Fullerton -26.75 20-11 (13-6) 108
32 Radford -28 22-12 (15-6) 110
33 Iona -31.5 20-13 (14-7) 118
34 Texas Southern -41 15-19 (15-6) 128
35 NC Central -42.75 19-15 (13-7) 130
36 LIU Brooklyn -44.5 18-16 (13-8) 131