Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


2/27: Mystery Resume Time!

I certainly know my rankings aren’t prefect. They seem to hate or love certain teams much more than they should (sorry Providence and USC). But I have unearthed some problems, I believe, with the expert consensus on certain teams. To illustrate this, let me give you two resumes. Let me let you decide who you think should be seeded higher (projected seeds come from bracketmatrix.com):

Which do you like better? I prefer the team with the better record, better wins at the top, fewer inexcusable bad losses, and (slightly) better advanced metrics. Give me Team 1 all day. The only thing going in Team 2’s direction is that they’ve played a more difficult schedule. But guess what? That tough schedule resulted in many more losses, more bad losses, and fewer big wins. It doesn’t matter if you play a good schedule if you can’t get consistent results.

Team 1 is NC State and Team 2 is Alabama. Right now, they are both listed as a 9 seed at BracketMatrix, despite Alabama’s mixed body of work and the fact that they’ve lost three straight games. How NC State is a 9 seed with the wins they have (Duke, at UNC, Arizona, Clemson) and a 10-6 ACC record is beyond me. My system has NC State 21st (good for a 6 seed) and Alabama out of the tournament, ranked 51st. I think bracketologists (and the committee, unfortuantely) falls in love with a team’s SOS metric, without considering carefully the actual results from the strong schedule. Missouri is even more drastically underranked in my system at 60th place.

This includes all games through Monday, February 26th:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Virginia 14 26-2 (15-1) 1
2 Villanova 8.25 25-4 (12-4) 2
3 Michigan State 7.25 28-3 (16-2) 3
4 Kansas 7.25 24-6 (13-4) 9
5 North Carolina 7 22-7 (11-5) 6
6 Xavier 6.75 25-4 (13-3) 4
7 Purdue 6.5 26-5 (15-3) 5
8 Duke 5 24-6 (12-5) 7
9 Gonzaga 3.25 27-4 (17-1) 10
10 West Virginia 2.5 22-8 (11-6) 20
11 Auburn 2 24-5 (12-4) 12
12 Michigan 1.75 24-7 (13-5) T14
13 Clemson 1.75 21-7 (10-6) 11
14 Texas Tech 1.75 22-8 (10-7) 8
15 Cincinnati 1.25 25-4 (14-2) 13
16 Ohio State 0.75 24-7 (15-3) T14
17 Tennessee 0.75 21-7 (11-5) 16
18 Rhode Island -0.25 23-4 (15-1) 17
19 Kentucky -1.25 20-9 (9-7) 29
20 Wichita St -1.5 23-5 (13-3) 18
21 NC State -2 20-9 (10-6) 25
22 St Marys -3.25 27-4 (16-2) 23
23 Houston -3.25 22-6 (12-4) 19
24 Miami -3.25 20-8 (9-7) 28
25 Kansas State -3.5 20-9 (9-7) 24
26 TCU -3.75 20-9 (8-8) 36
27 Virginia Tech -4 21-9 (10-7) 33
28 Oklahoma -4 17-11 (7-9) 40
29 Nevada -4.5 25-5 (14-2) 31
30 Creighton -4.5 20-9 (9-7) 22
31 Seton Hall -4.5 20-9 (9-7) 32
32 Butler -4.5 19-10 (9-7) 30
33 Florida State -4.75 19-9 (8-8) 27
34 Arizona -5.5 22-7 (12-4) 21
35 Mid Tennessee -6.25 23-5 (15-1) 34
36 St Bonaventure -6.5 22-6 (12-4) 41
37 Louisville -6.5 19-10 (9-7) 42
38 Florida -6.5 18-11 (9-7) 43
39 Texas AM -7 18-11 (7-9) 37
40 Arkansas -7.25 20-9 (9-7) T38
41 Baylor -7.25 17-12 (7-9) 35
42 Mississippi St -7.5 21-8 (9-7) 50
43 UL Lafayette -7.5 25-4 (15-1) 45
44 Nebraska -7.75 22-9 (13-5) 51
45 Texas -8.5 17-13 (7-10) 47
46 Arizona St -8.75 19-9 (7-9) 26
47 New Mexico St -9 24-5 (11-2) 53
48 Boise St -9.5 22-6 (12-4) 56
49 Marquette -9.5 17-12 (8-9) 44
50 Syracuse -10 18-11 (7-9) 54
51 Alabama -10 17-12 (8-8) 46
52 UCLA -10.25 19-10 (10-7) T38
53 OK State -10.25 16-13 (6-10) 64
54 Loy Chic -10.5 25-5 (15-3) 59
55 Providence -10.5 18-11 (9-7) 49
56 W Kentucky -11.25 22-7 (14-2) 60
57 Notre Dame -11.25 17-12 (7-9) 63
58 Maryland -11.5 19-12 (8-10) 55
59 USC -11.75 21-9 (12-5) 68
60 Missouri -11.75 18-11 (8-8) 48
61 Vermont -12.25 24-6 (14-1) 67
62 Georgia -12.75 16-12 (7-9) 65
63 Old Dominion -12.75 22-6 (13-3) 57
64 Utah -13.5 18-10 (10-7) 58
65 Washington -14 19-10 (9-7) 66
66 Boston College -14 16-13 (6-10) 62
67 Oregon -14.25 19-10 (9-7) 78
68 Penn State -14.25 19-12 (9-9) 61
69 LSU -14.5 16-12 (7-9) 70
70 BYU -14.75 22-9 (11-7) 72
71 Temple -15.25 16-12 (8-8) 77
72 Davidson -15.75 17-10 (12-4) 80
73 Buffalo -16 21-8 (13-3) 71
74 UCF -16.25 17-11 (8-8) 69
75 Iowa State -16.75 13-15 (4-12) 79
76 South Carolina -17.25 15-14 (6-10) 83
77 Indiana -17.75 16-14 (9-9) 76
78 ETSU -18 23-8 (14-4) 52
79 Tulsa -18.25 17-11 (10-6) 84
80 SMU -18.25 16-13 (6-10) 85
81 Fresno St -18.75 21-9 (11-6) 81
82 Memphis -18.75 18-11 (9-7) 91
83 St Johns -18.75 14-15 (3-13) 74
84 Georgetown -19 15-13 (5-12) 73
85 UNLV -19.75 19-10 (8-8) 75
86 San Diego St -19.75 17-10 (9-7) 88
87 Stanford -19.75 16-13 (10-6) 90
88 Wisconsin -20 14-17 (7-11) 87
89 Colorado -21 16-13 (8-9) 86
90 Northwestern -22 15-16 (6-12) 82
91 Vanderbilt -22.5 11-18 (5-11) 89
92 Ole Miss -23.75 12-17 (5-11) 97
93 Uconn -23.75 13-16 (6-10) 92
94 Minnesota -24.75 15-16 (4-14) 93
95 Oregon State -25 14-14 (6-10) 94
96 Wake Forest -25.25 11-18 (4-13) 96
97 Georgia Tech -25.5 11-18 (4-12) 99
98 VCU -25.5 16-13 (8-8) 95
99 DePaul -26.5 11-17 (4-12) 101
100 Illinois -26.75 14-17 (4-14) 98
101 Iowa -28 13-18 (4-14) 100
102 Saint Louis -28.75 16-13 (9-7) 103
103 Dayton -29.25 13-15 (7-9) 104
104 Tulane -30.25 14-14 (5-11) 105
105 Rutgers -30.5 13-18 (3-15) 102
106 G Washington -33.5 13-16 (6-10) 109
107 St Josephs -33.75 13-15 (8-8) 106
108 G Mason -33.75 14-15 (8-8) 111
109 La Salle -33.75 12-17 (6-10) 110
110 Washington St -34.75 11-17 (3-13) 108
111 Duquense -34.75 15-14 (6-10) 107
112 Pittsburgh -39.25 8-22 (0-17) 113
113 Umass -40.5 11-18 (4-12) 112
114 E Carolina -42 10-17 (4-12) 115
115 Richmond -44 9-19 (7-9) 114
116 California -45 8-21 (2-14) 116
117 Fordham -46.25 9-19 (4-12) 117
118 S Florida -52.25 8-21 (1-15) 118



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 -4.25
2 ACC -7.8667
3 Big East -8.275
4 SEC -9.9464
5 Other -11.2059
6 Big 10 -13.3571
7 Pac 12 -18.625
8 Amer -19.875
9 A10 -29.0179



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Virginia 14 26-2 (15-1) 1
2 North Carolina 7 22-7 (11-5) 5
3 Duke 5 24-6 (12-5) 8
4 Clemson 1.75 21-7 (10-6) 13
5 NC State -2 20-9 (10-6) 21
6 Miami -3.25 20-8 (9-7) 24
7 Virginia Tech -4 21-9 (10-7) 27
8 Florida State -4.75 19-9 (8-8) 33
9 Louisville -6.5 19-10 (9-7) 37
10 Syracuse -10 18-11 (7-9) 50
11 Notre Dame -11.25 17-12 (7-9) 57
12 Boston College -14 16-13 (6-10) 66
13 Wake Forest -25.25 11-18 (4-13) 96
14 Georgia Tech -25.5 11-18 (4-12) 97
15 Pittsburgh -39.25 8-22 (0-17) 112


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Michigan State 7.25 28-3 (16-2) 3
2 Purdue 6.5 26-5 (15-3) 7
3 Michigan 1.75 24-7 (13-5) 12
4 Ohio State 0.75 24-7 (15-3) 16
5 Nebraska -7.75 22-9 (13-5) 44
6 Maryland -11.5 19-12 (8-10) 58
7 Penn State -14.25 19-12 (9-9) 68
8 Indiana -17.75 16-14 (9-9) 77
9 Wisconsin -20 14-17 (7-11) 88
10 Northwestern -22 15-16 (6-12) 90
11 Minnesota -24.75 15-16 (4-14) 94
12 Illinois -26.75 14-17 (4-14) 100
13 Iowa -28 13-18 (4-14) 101
14 Rutgers -30.5 13-18 (3-15) 105


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Auburn 2 24-5 (12-4) 11
2 Tennessee 0.75 21-7 (11-5) 17
3 Kentucky -1.25 20-9 (9-7) 19
4 Florida -6.5 18-11 (9-7) 38
5 Texas AM -7 18-11 (7-9) 39
6 Arkansas -7.25 20-9 (9-7) 40
7 Mississippi St -7.5 21-8 (9-7) 42
8 Alabama -10 17-12 (8-8) 51
9 Missouri -11.75 18-11 (8-8) 60
10 Georgia -12.75 16-12 (7-9) 62
11 LSU -14.5 16-12 (7-9) 69
12 South Carolina -17.25 15-14 (6-10) 76
13 Vanderbilt -22.5 11-18 (5-11) 91
14 Ole Miss -23.75 12-17 (5-11) 92


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Kansas 7.25 24-6 (13-4) 4
2 West Virginia 2.5 22-8 (11-6) 10
3 Texas Tech 1.75 22-8 (10-7) 14
4 Kansas State -3.5 20-9 (9-7) 25
5 TCU -3.75 20-9 (8-8) 26
6 Oklahoma -4 17-11 (7-9) 28
7 Baylor -7.25 17-12 (7-9) 41
8 Texas -8.5 17-13 (7-10) 45
9 OK State -10.25 16-13 (6-10) 53
10 Iowa State -16.75 13-15 (4-12) 75


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona -5.5 22-7 (12-4) 34
2 Arizona St -8.75 19-9 (7-9) 46
3 UCLA -10.25 19-10 (10-7) 52
4 USC -11.75 21-9 (12-5) 59
5 Utah -13.5 18-10 (10-7) 64
6 Washington -14 19-10 (9-7) 65
7 Oregon -14.25 19-10 (9-7) 67
8 Stanford -19.75 16-13 (10-6) 87
9 Colorado -21 16-13 (8-9) 89
10 Oregon State -25 14-14 (6-10) 95
11 Washington St -34.75 11-17 (3-13) 110
12 California -45 8-21 (2-14) 116


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Cincinnati 1.25 25-4 (14-2) 15
2 Wichita St -1.5 23-5 (13-3) 20
3 Houston -3.25 22-6 (12-4) 23
4 Temple -15.25 16-12 (8-8) 71
5 UCF -16.25 17-11 (8-8) 74
T6 Tulsa -18.25 17-11 (10-6) 79
T6 SMU -18.25 16-13 (6-10) 80
8 Memphis -18.75 18-11 (9-7) 82
9 Uconn -23.75 13-16 (6-10) 93
10 Tulane -30.25 14-14 (5-11) 104
11 E Carolina -42 10-17 (4-12) 114
12 S Florida -52.25 8-21 (1-15) 118


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 8.25 25-4 (12-4) 2
2 Xavier 6.75 25-4 (13-3) 6
3 Creighton -4.5 20-9 (9-7) 30
T4 Seton Hall -4.5 20-9 (9-7) 31
T4 Butler -4.5 19-10 (9-7) 32
6 Marquette -9.5 17-12 (8-9) 49
7 Providence -10.5 18-11 (9-7) 55
8 St Johns -18.75 14-15 (3-13) 83
9 Georgetown -19 15-13 (5-12) 84
10 DePaul -26.5 11-17 (4-12) 99


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island -0.25 23-4 (15-1) 18
2 St Bonaventure -6.5 22-6 (12-4) 36
3 Davidson -15.75 17-10 (12-4) 72
4 VCU -25.5 16-13 (8-8) 98
5 Saint Louis -28.75 16-13 (9-7) 102
6 Dayton -29.25 13-15 (7-9) 103
7 G Washington -33.5 13-16 (6-10) 106
8 St Josephs -33.75 13-15 (8-8) 107
T9 G Mason -33.75 14-15 (8-8) 108
T9 La Salle -33.75 12-17 (6-10) 109
11 Duquense -34.75 15-14 (6-10) 111
12 Umass -40.5 11-18 (4-12) 113
13 Richmond -44 9-19 (7-9) 115
14 Fordham -46.25 9-19 (4-12) 117


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 3.25 27-4 (17-1) 9
2 St Marys -3.25 27-4 (16-2) 22
3 Nevada -4.5 25-5 (14-2) 29
4 Mid Tennessee -6.25 23-5 (15-1) 35
5 UL Lafayette -7.5 25-4 (15-1) 43
6 New Mexico St -9 24-5 (11-2) 47
7 Boise St -9.5 22-6 (12-4) 48
8 Loy Chic -10.5 25-5 (15-3) 54
9 W Kentucky -11.25 22-7 (14-2) 56
10 Vermont -12.25 24-6 (14-1) 61
11 Old Dominion -12.75 22-6 (13-3) 63
12 BYU -14.75 22-9 (11-7) 70
13 Buffalo -16 21-8 (13-3) 73
14 ETSU -18 23-8 (14-4) 78
15 Fresno St -18.75 21-9 (11-6) 81
T16 UNLV -19.75 19-10 (8-8) 85
T17 San Diego St -19.75 17-10 (9-7) 86