Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


2/20: My Rankings Hate the SEC

If the season ended right now, it is very likely that the SEC would get eight teams into the tournament. My rankings agree: Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Texas AM, Arkanasas, Missouri, and Florida all would be dancing at this moment in time. However, despite my rankings concluding that all eight of these teams are currently on the right side of the bubble, I have them ranked much lower than the general consensus. Alabama is currently a 7 seed on bracketmatrix.com, but they are ranked 46th in my rankings, good for the third-to-last team in the tourney. Missouri is similar: a consensus 7 or 8 seed, but the very last team in the bracket according to my rankings. Florida (8 seed in BM, 11 in mine), Texas AM (8 seed in BM, 10 in mine), and Arkansas (8 seed in BM, 10 in mine) all follow similar patterns.

Why is my system undervaluing the SEC compared to bracketologists? I think it’s because of a lack of “elite” teams at the top of the conference. Kentucky, Florida, and Texas AM have not been the top 15 teams we thought they could be. Tennessee and Auburn have taken the places of those teams at the top, but they aren’t really built to be elite, dominant teams. At the end of the day what you get is a lot of good, but not a lot of great. My system gives a solid amount of points for beating a good team, but it also takes a good amount away for losing to a team that isn’t great. Add it all up, and you have a small amount of “elite” wins and a large amount of losses to teams that are not elite. Teams like Missouri and Alabama certainly should be in the tournament, but it will be interesting to see if the committee treats them more like the “experts” do or if the conference as a whole gets dinged a bit.

Also, my system loves NC State and Kansas State, hates Providence and HATES HATES HATES USC.

This includes all games through Monday, February 19th:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Virginia 12.75 24-2 (13-1) 1
2 Villanova 10 24-3 (11-3) 2
3 Michigan State 8.5 26-3 (14-2) 5
4 Xavier 8.5 24-4 (12-3) 3
5 Purdue 7.5 24-5 (13-3) 4
6 North Carolina 5.75 21-7 (10-5) 11
7 Duke 4.75 22-5 (10-4) 14
8 Texas Tech 4.25 22-5 (10-4) 6
9 Kansas 4 22-6 (11-4) 12
10 Gonzaga 3 25-4 (15-1) 9
11 Clemson 3 20-6 (9-5) 7
12 Auburn 2.75 23-4 (11-3) 13
13 Cincinnati 1.25 23-4 (12-2) 8
T14 Ohio State 1.25 22-7 (13-3) 10
T14 Michigan 1.25 22-7 (11-5) 20
16 Tennessee 0.25 19-7 (9-5) 15
17 Rhode Island -0.75 21-4 (13-1) 16
18 Wichita St -1 21-5 (11-3) 35
19 Houston -1.25 21-5 (11-3) 31
20 West Virginia -1.5 19-8 (8-6) 17
21 Arizona -2.5 21-6 (11-3) 22
22 Creighton -3 19-8 (8-6) 18
23 St Marys -3.25 25-4 (14-2) 19
24 Kansas State -3.25 19-8 (8-6) T25
25 NC State -3.5 18-9 (8-6) 34
26 Arizona St -3.75 19-7 (7-7) 23
27 Florida State -3.75 19-8 (8-7) 39
28 Miami -4 19-8 (8-7) 32
29 Kentucky -4.25 18-9 (7-7) 27
30 Butler -4.75 18-10 (8-7) 30
31 Nevada -5 23-5 (12-2) 38
32 Seton Hall -5 18-9 (7-7) T25
33 Virginia Tech -5.5 19-8 (8-6) 40
34 Mid Tennessee -5.75 22-5 (14-1) 46
35 Baylor -5.75 17-10 (7-7) 41
36 TCU -5.75 18-9 (6-8) 33
37 Texas AM -5.75 17-10 (6-8) 28
T38 Arkansas -6.75 19-8 (8-6) 44
T38 UCLA -6.75 19-8 (10-5) 45
40 Oklahoma -6.75 16-11 (6-9) 21
41 St Bonaventure -7 20-6 (10-4) 52
42 Louisville -7 18-9 (8-6) 53
43 Florida -7 17-10 (8-6) 24
44 Marquette -7 15-11 (6-8) 50
45 UL Lafayette -7.5 23-4 (13-1) 49
46 Alabama -7.75 17-10 (8-6) 37
47 Texas -7.75 16-11 (6-8) 54
48 Missouri -8 18-9 (8-6) 36
49 Providence -8.25 17-10 (8-6) 51
50 Mississippi St -8.5 19-8 (7-7) 42
51 Nebraska -8.5 20-9 (11-5) 43
52 ETSU -8.5 23-5 (14-1) 56
53 New Mexico St -9 22-5 (9-2) 29
54 Syracuse -9 18-9 (7-7) 55
55 Maryland -9.5 19-11 (8-9) 57
56 Boise St -9.75 21-6 (11-4) 48
57 Old Dominion -10.25 21-5 (12-2) 63
58 Utah -10.25 17-9 (9-6) 62
59 Loy Chic -10.5 23-5 (13-3) 58
60 W Kentucky -10.75 20-7 (12-2) 64
61 Penn State -11 19-10 (9-7) 69
62 Boston College -11.25 16-11 (6-8) 61
63 Notre Dame -11.5 16-12 (6-9) 68
64 OK State -11.5 15-12 (5-9) 47
65 Georgia -11.75 15-11 (6-8) 81
66 Washington -12 18-9 (8-6) 59
67 Vermont -12.25 22-6 (12-1) 60
68 USC -12.5 19-9 (10-5) 65
69 UCF -12.75 17-9 (8-6) 70
70 LSU -13.25 15-11 (6-8) 80
71 Buffalo -13.5 20-7 (12-2) 76
72 BYU -14 21-8 (10-6) 67
73 Georgetown -14 15-10 (5-9) 73
74 St Johns -14 14-13 (3-11) 77
75 UNLV -14.75 19-8 (8-6) 72
76 Indiana -15 16-12 (9-7) 82
77 Temple -15.25 15-12 (7-8) 74
78 Oregon -15.5 17-10 (7-7) 66
79 Iowa State -15.5 13-13 (4-10) 75
80 Davidson -16 15-10 (10-4) 83
81 Fresno St -16.5 19-8 (9-5) 84
82 Northwestern -16.75 15-14 (6-10) 79
83 South Carolina -17 14-13 (5-9) 85
84 Tulsa -17.75 16-10 (9-5) 88
85 SMU -17.75 15-12 (5-9) 71
86 Colorado -18.25 15-12 (7-8) 78
87 Wisconsin -19 13-16 (6-10) 94
88 San Diego St -19.25 15-10 (7-7) 90
89 Vanderbilt -19.5 11-16 (5-9) 96
90 Stanford -20 14-13 (8-6) 89
91 Memphis -20.25 16-11 (7-7) 91
92 Uconn -20.5 13-14 (6-8) 86
93 Minnesota -23 14-15 (3-13) 95
94 Oregon State -23.75 13-13 (5-9) 92
95 VCU -23.75 15-12 (7-7) 87
96 Wake Forest -24 10-17 (3-12) 99
97 Ole Miss -24.25 11-16 (4-10) 98
98 Illinois -25.5 13-15 (3-12) 102
99 Georgia Tech -25.5 11-16 (4-10) 97
100 Iowa -25.75 12-17 (3-13) 100
101 DePaul -25.75 10-16 (3-11) 93
102 Rutgers -26.5 13-16 (3-13) 103
103 Saint Louis -27.25 15-12 (8-6) 105
104 Dayton -28.5 12-14 (6-8) 104
105 Tulane -29.25 13-13 (4-10) 101
106 St Josephs -30.25 12-14 (7-7) 108
107 Duquense -31.25 15-12 (6-8) 106
108 Washington St -32 10-16 (2-12) 107
109 G Washington -32 12-15 (5-9) 111
110 La Salle -32.75 11-16 (5-9) 112
111 G Mason -34 12-15 (6-8) 110
112 Umass -36 11-16 (4-10) 109
113 Pittsburgh -37.25 8-20 (0-15) 115
114 Richmond -38 9-17 (7-7) 113
115 E Carolina -38 10-15 (4-10) 114
116 California -39.5 8-19 (2-12) 116
117 Fordham -41.75 9-17 (4-10) 117
118 S Florida -49.75 8-20 (1-14) 118



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 -4.95
2 Big East -6.325
3 ACC -7.7333
4 SEC -9.3393
5 Other -9.8529
6 Big 10 -11.5714
7 Pac 12 -16.3958
8 Amer -18.5208
9 A10 -27.0893



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Virginia 12.75 24-2 (13-1) 1
2 North Carolina 5.75 21-7 (10-5) 6
3 Duke 4.75 22-5 (10-4) 7
4 Clemson 3 20-6 (9-5) 11
5 NC State -3.5 18-9 (8-6) 25
6 Florida State -3.75 19-8 (8-7) 27
7 Miami -4 19-8 (8-7) 28
8 Virginia Tech -5.5 19-8 (8-6) 33
9 Louisville -7 18-9 (8-6) 42
10 Syracuse -9 18-9 (7-7) 54
11 Boston College -11.25 16-11 (6-8) 62
12 Notre Dame -11.5 16-12 (6-9) 63
13 Wake Forest -24 10-17 (3-12) 96
14 Georgia Tech -25.5 11-16 (4-10) 99
15 Pittsburgh -37.25 8-20 (0-15) 113


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Michigan State 8.5 26-3 (14-2) 3
2 Purdue 7.5 24-5 (13-3) 5
T3 Ohio State 1.25 22-7 (13-3) T14
T3 Michigan 1.25 22-7 (11-5) T14
5 Nebraska -8.5 20-9 (11-5) 51
6 Maryland -9.5 19-11 (8-9) 55
7 Penn State -11 19-10 (9-7) 61
8 Indiana -15 16-12 (9-7) 76
9 Northwestern -16.75 15-14 (6-10) 82
10 Wisconsin -19 13-16 (6-10) 87
11 Minnesota -23 14-15 (3-13) 93
12 Illinois -25.5 13-15 (3-12) 98
13 Iowa -25.75 12-17 (3-13) 100
14 Rutgers -26.5 13-16 (3-13) 102


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Auburn 2.75 23-4 (11-3) 12
2 Tennessee 0.25 19-7 (9-5) 16
3 Kentucky -4.25 18-9 (7-7) 29
4 Texas AM -5.75 17-10 (6-8) 37
5 Arkansas -6.75 19-8 (8-6) T38
6 Florida -7 17-10 (8-6) 43
7 Alabama -7.75 17-10 (8-6) 46
8 Missouri -8 18-9 (8-6) 48
9 Mississippi St -8.5 19-8 (7-7) 50
10 Georgia -11.75 15-11 (6-8) 65
11 LSU -13.25 15-11 (6-8) 70
12 South Carolina -17 14-13 (5-9) 83
13 Vanderbilt -19.5 11-16 (5-9) 89
14 Ole Miss -24.25 11-16 (4-10) 97


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Texas Tech 4.25 22-5 (10-4) 8
2 Kansas 4 22-6 (11-4) 9
3 West Virginia -1.5 19-8 (8-6) 20
4 Kansas State -3.25 19-8 (8-6) 24
5 Baylor -5.75 17-10 (7-7) 35
6 TCU -5.75 18-9 (6-8) 36
7 Oklahoma -6.75 16-11 (6-9) 40
8 Texas -7.75 16-11 (6-8) 47
9 OK State -11.5 15-12 (5-9) 64
10 Iowa State -15.5 13-13 (4-10) 79


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona -2.5 21-6 (11-3) 21
2 Arizona St -3.75 19-7 (7-7) 26
3 UCLA -6.75 19-8 (10-5) T38
4 Utah -10.25 17-9 (9-6) 58
5 Washington -12 18-9 (8-6) 66
6 USC -12.5 19-9 (10-5) 68
7 Oregon -15.5 17-10 (7-7) 78
8 Colorado -18.25 15-12 (7-8) 86
9 Stanford -20 14-13 (8-6) 90
10 Oregon State -23.75 13-13 (5-9) 94
11 Washington St -32 10-16 (2-12) 108
12 California -39.5 8-19 (2-12) 116


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Cincinnati 1.25 23-4 (12-2) 13
2 Wichita St -1 21-5 (11-3) 18
3 Houston -1.25 21-5 (11-3) 19
4 UCF -12.75 17-9 (8-6) 69
5 Temple -15.25 15-12 (7-8) 77
T6 Tulsa -17.75 16-10 (9-5) 84
T6 SMU -17.75 15-12 (5-9) 85
8 Memphis -20.25 16-11 (7-7) 91
9 Uconn -20.5 13-14 (6-8) 92
10 Tulane -29.25 13-13 (4-10) 105
11 E Carolina -38 10-15 (4-10) 115
12 S Florida -49.75 8-20 (1-14) 118


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 10 24-3 (11-3) 2
2 Xavier 8.5 24-4 (12-3) 4
3 Creighton -3 19-8 (8-6) 22
4 Butler -4.75 18-10 (8-7) 30
5 Seton Hall -5 18-9 (7-7) 32
6 Marquette -7 15-11 (6-8) 44
7 Providence -8.25 17-10 (8-6) 49
T8 Georgetown -14 15-10 (5-9) 73
T8 St Johns -14 14-13 (3-11) 74
10 DePaul -25.75 10-16 (3-11) 101


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island -0.75 21-4 (13-1) 17
2 St Bonaventure -7 20-6 (10-4) 41
3 Davidson -16 15-10 (10-4) 80
4 VCU -23.75 15-12 (7-7) 95
5 Saint Louis -27.25 15-12 (8-6) 103
6 Dayton -28.5 12-14 (6-8) 104
7 St Josephs -30.25 12-14 (7-7) 106
8 Duquense -31.25 15-12 (6-8) 107
9 G Washington -32 12-15 (5-9) 109
10 La Salle -32.75 11-16 (5-9) 110
11 G Mason -34 12-15 (6-8) 111
12 Umass -36 11-16 (4-10) 112
13 Richmond -38 9-17 (7-7) 114
14 Fordham -41.75 9-17 (4-10) 117


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 3 25-4 (15-1) 10
2 St Marys -3.25 25-4 (14-2) 23
3 Nevada -5 23-5 (12-2) 31
4 Mid Tennessee -5.75 22-5 (14-1) 34
5 UL Lafayette -7.5 23-4 (13-1) 45
6 ETSU -8.5 23-5 (14-1) 52
7 New Mexico St -9 22-5 (9-2) 53
8 Boise St -9.75 21-6 (11-4) 56
9 Old Dominion -10.25 21-5 (12-2) 57
10 Loy Chic -10.5 23-5 (13-3) 59
11 W Kentucky -10.75 20-7 (12-2) 60
12 Vermont -12.25 22-6 (12-1) 67
13 Buffalo -13.5 20-7 (12-2) 71
14 BYU -14 21-8 (10-6) 72
15 UNLV -14.75 19-8 (8-6) 75
16 Fresno St -16.5 19-8 (9-5) 81
17 San Diego St -19.25 15-10 (7-7) 88