Body Of Work(+) Rankings - 2/7/2018
Jack DiTrapani
February 7th, 2018
Welcome
If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.
Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.
Basic Idea
The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)
I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:
- Bin 3: Elite teams, the cream of the crop. Typically the top 4-6 teams in the country. (e.g. Villanova, Virginia)
- Bin 2: Teams that are “solidly ranked.” Not quite elite, but clearly top 25. (e.g.Auburn, Gonzaga)
- Bin 1: Teams that are “borderline ranked.” You certainly can make a case they are a top 25 team, but certainly can make the case they are not. (e.g. Wichita State, Michigan)
- Bin 0: Teams that are “solidly unranked.” Decent teams that have a pulse, but are not considered close to being top 25. This would correspond to anyone around the 8/9 seed area to a “bubble” team. (e.g. Syracuse, Missouri)
- Bin -1: Starting to get a little worse here. These teams have little chance at making the tournament, at least if the tournament was seeded today. (e.g. DePaul, VCU)
- Bin -2: Bad, no sniffing the tournament. (e.g. Fordham)
- Bin -3: Really really bad. Cupcakes. Losing to one of these is not going to do good things to your “BOW+” score.
If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.
This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.
The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.
So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.
2/7
I’m a little busy right now, so no long write-up this week. There are still certainly a few teams that are outliers in my system compared to the general consensus, including Mississippi State, NC State, USC, and Alabama. Mississippi State in particular is still not getting love from experts out there despite being 6-5 in the SEC and having just 6 losses overall. They’ve now won 4 straight after beating Alabama Tuesday night. The bubble line this week is 50th place.
This includes all games through Tuesday, February 6th:
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | Prev Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia | 12.25 | 22-1 | (11-0) | 1 |
| 2 | Villanova | 11 | 22-1 | (9-1) | 3 |
| 3 | Purdue | 10 | 23-2 | (12-0) | 2 |
| 4 | Xavier | 6.75 | 22-3 | (10-2) | 4 |
| 5 | Texas Tech | 5 | 19-4 | (7-3) | 9 |
| 6 | Michigan State | 4.75 | 23-3 | (11-2) | 7 |
| 7 | Auburn | 4.5 | 21-2 | (9-1) | 8 |
| 8 | Kansas | 4.25 | 19-5 | (8-3) | 5 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 4 | 18-5 | (8-3) | 16 |
| 10 | Clemson | 4 | 19-4 | (8-3) | 11 |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 3 | 22-2 | (11-0) | 13 |
| 12 | West Virginia | 3 | 18-6 | (7-4) | 14 |
| 13 | Gonzaga | 2.5 | 21-4 | (11-1) | 12 |
| 14 | Duke | 2 | 19-4 | (7-3) | 6 |
| 15 | St Marys | 0.75 | 23-2 | (12-0) | 15 |
| 16 | Rhode Island | 0.5 | 19-3 | (11-0) | 22 |
| 17 | Oklahoma | 0.5 | 16-7 | (6-5) | 10 |
| 18 | Ohio State | 0.25 | 20-5 | (11-1) | 21 |
| 19 | North Carolina | -0.25 | 17-7 | (6-5) | 19 |
| 20 | Michigan | -0.75 | 19-7 | (8-5) | 18 |
| 21 | Seton Hall | -1 | 17-6 | (6-4) | 24 |
| 22 | Arizona | -1.25 | 19-5 | (9-2) | 20 |
| 23 | Miami | -1.5 | 17-5 | (6-4) | 27 |
| 24 | Kentucky | -1.5 | 17-7 | (6-5) | 17 |
| 25 | Creighton | -1.5 | 17-6 | (7-4) | 26 |
| 26 | NC State | -2.5 | 16-7 | (6-4) | 35 |
| 27 | Butler | -2.75 | 17-8 | (7-5) | 32 |
| 28 | Kansas State | -3 | 16-7 | (5-5) | 30 |
| 29 | Texas | -3 | 15-8 | (5-5) | 39 |
| 30 | Florida State | -3.25 | 17-6 | (6-5) | 23 |
| 31 | Nevada | -3.5 | 20-4 | (9-1) | 40 |
| 32 | New Mexico St | -3.75 | 20-3 | (7-0) | 38 |
| 33 | TCU | -4 | 16-8 | (4-7) | 37 |
| 34 | Arizona St | -4.5 | 17-6 | (5-6) | 31 |
| 35 | Wichita St | -4.75 | 18-5 | (8-3) | 28 |
| 36 | Houston | -5 | 17-5 | (7-3) | 36 |
| 37 | Mississippi St | -5 | 18-6 | (6-5) | 46 |
| 38 | Texas AM | -5 | 15-8 | (4-6) | 42 |
| 39 | Florida | -5.25 | 15-8 | (6-4) | 25 |
| 40 | Washington | -5.5 | 17-6 | (7-3) | 59 |
| 41 | UL Lafayette | -5.75 | 20-3 | (10-0) | 45 |
| 42 | Boise St | -6.25 | 20-4 | (10-2) | 47 |
| 43 | Louisville | -6.25 | 16-8 | (6-5) | 29 |
| 44 | ETSU | -6.5 | 21-4 | (12-0) | 55 |
| 45 | Mid Tennessee | -6.75 | 18-5 | (10-1) | 53 |
| 46 | Providence | -6.75 | 16-8 | (7-4) | 43 |
| T47 | Missouri | -7 | 16-8 | (6-5) | 60 |
| T47 | Arkansas | -7 | 16-8 | (5-6) | 34 |
| 49 | Maryland | -7 | 16-9 | (5-7) | 52 |
| 50 | Marquette | -7.25 | 13-10 | (4-7) | 33 |
| 51 | Nebraska | -7.5 | 18-8 | (9-4) | 51 |
| T52 | Virginia Tech | -8 | 16-7 | (5-5) | 48 |
| T52 | UCLA | -8 | 16-7 | (7-4) | 63 |
| 54 | Alabama | -8.25 | 15-9 | (6-5) | 41 |
| 55 | Syracuse | -8.5 | 16-8 | (5-6) | 50 |
| 56 | OK State | -8.75 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 44 |
| 57 | St Bonaventure | -9 | 16-6 | (6-4) | 71 |
| 58 | Baylor | -9.5 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 69 |
| 59 | Vermont | -9.5 | 19-5 | (9-0) | 74 |
| 60 | SMU | -9.75 | 15-8 | (5-5) | 54 |
| 61 | Northwestern | -10 | 15-10 | (6-6) | 73 |
| 62 | USC | -10.25 | 17-7 | (8-3) | 58 |
| 63 | Georgia | -10.5 | 13-9 | (4-6) | 70 |
| 64 | W Kentucky | -10.75 | 16-7 | (8-2) | 62 |
| 65 | BYU | -10.75 | 18-7 | (7-5) | 56 |
| 66 | Loy Chic | -11 | 19-5 | (9-3) | 61 |
| 67 | Old Dominion | -11 | 17-5 | (8-2) | 64 |
| 68 | Boston College | -11 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 49 |
| 69 | Utah | -11.25 | 13-9 | (5-6) | 57 |
| 70 | Buffalo | -11.25 | 18-6 | (10-1) | 65 |
| 71 | LSU | -11.75 | 13-9 | (4-6) | 75 |
| 72 | Notre Dame | -12.25 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 72 |
| 73 | Oregon | -12.75 | 15-8 | (5-5) | 66 |
| 74 | Iowa State | -12.75 | 12-10 | (3-7) | 83 |
| 75 | Temple | -13 | 13-10 | (5-6) | 84 |
| 76 | UCF | -13 | 14-9 | (5-6) | 68 |
| 77 | Penn State | -13.5 | 16-9 | (6-6) | 78 |
| 78 | UNLV | -13.75 | 16-7 | (5-5) | 76 |
| 79 | Colorado | -14.25 | 13-10 | (5-6) | 85 |
| 80 | South Carolina | -15 | 13-11 | (4-7) | 67 |
| 81 | Indiana | -15.25 | 13-12 | (6-7) | 80 |
| 82 | Georgetown | -16 | 13-10 | (3-9) | 82 |
| 83 | Fresno St | -16.5 | 17-8 | (7-5) | 88 |
| 84 | VCU | -16.5 | 14-9 | (6-4) | 87 |
| 85 | Davidson | -16.75 | 13-9 | (8-3) | 93 |
| 86 | Stanford | -16.75 | 13-11 | (7-4) | 95 |
| 87 | Uconn | -17.5 | 11-12 | (4-6) | 79 |
| 88 | Minnesota | -17.75 | 14-12 | (3-10) | 77 |
| 89 | San Diego St | -18 | 13-9 | (5-6) | 89 |
| 90 | St Johns | -18 | 11-13 | (0-11) | 97 |
| 91 | Memphis | -18.5 | 14-10 | (5-6) | 81 |
| 92 | Tulsa | -19 | 13-10 | (6-5) | 98 |
| 93 | Tulane | -19.25 | 13-9 | (4-6) | 91 |
| 94 | Georgia Tech | -19.25 | 11-12 | (4-6) | 99 |
| 95 | Vanderbilt | -19.25 | 8-15 | (2-8) | 96 |
| 96 | Ole Miss | -19.5 | 11-13 | (4-7) | 86 |
| 97 | Wisconsin | -19.5 | 10-15 | (3-9) | 90 |
| 98 | Illinois | -19.75 | 12-12 | (2-9) | 101 |
| 99 | Wake Forest | -20 | 9-14 | (2-9) | 100 |
| 100 | Oregon State | -21.75 | 11-11 | (3-7) | 92 |
| 101 | DePaul | -22 | 9-13 | (2-8) | 102 |
| 102 | Iowa | -22.75 | 12-14 | (3-10) | 103 |
| 103 | Duquense | -22.75 | 15-9 | (6-5) | 104 |
| 104 | Rutgers | -23.25 | 12-14 | (2-11) | 94 |
| 105 | Dayton | -23.75 | 10-12 | (4-6) | 105 |
| 106 | Washington St | -24.5 | 9-13 | (1-9) | 106 |
| 107 | La Salle | -25.25 | 10-13 | (4-6) | 107 |
| 108 | Saint Louis | -25.5 | 13-11 | (6-5) | 111 |
| 109 | G Mason | -28.75 | 10-13 | (4-6) | 112 |
| 110 | Pittsburgh | -28.75 | 8-16 | (0-11) | 110 |
| 111 | Umass | -29 | 11-13 | (4-7) | 113 |
| 112 | G Washington | -29.5 | 9-14 | (2-8) | 109 |
| 113 | St Josephs | -31 | 9-14 | (4-7) | 108 |
| 114 | California | -32.5 | 8-16 | (2-9) | 114 |
| 115 | E Carolina | -34.25 | 9-13 | (3-8) | 115 |
| 116 | Richmond | -34.75 | 8-14 | (6-4) | 116 |
| 117 | Fordham | -36 | 7-15 | (2-8) | 117 |
| 118 | S Florida | -42.25 | 8-16 | (1-10) | 118 |
Conference Ranks
| Rank | Conf | Avg |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big 12 | -2.825 |
| 2 | Big East | -5.75 |
| 3 | ACC | -6.8833 |
| 4 | SEC | -7.6071 |
| 5 | Other | -8.3382 |
| 6 | Big 10 | -10.1429 |
| 7 | Pac 12 | -13.6042 |
| 8 | Amer | -16.1042 |
| 9 | A10 | -23.4286 |
Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:
ACC
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia | 12.25 | 22-1 | (11-0) | 1 |
| 2 | Clemson | 4 | 19-4 | (8-3) | 10 |
| 3 | Duke | 2 | 19-4 | (7-3) | 14 |
| 4 | North Carolina | -0.25 | 17-7 | (6-5) | 19 |
| 5 | Miami | -1.5 | 17-5 | (6-4) | 23 |
| 6 | NC State | -2.5 | 16-7 | (6-4) | 26 |
| 7 | Florida State | -3.25 | 17-6 | (6-5) | 30 |
| 8 | Louisville | -6.25 | 16-8 | (6-5) | 43 |
| 9 | Virginia Tech | -8 | 16-7 | (5-5) | T52 |
| 10 | Syracuse | -8.5 | 16-8 | (5-6) | 55 |
| 11 | Boston College | -11 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 68 |
| 12 | Notre Dame | -12.25 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 72 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | -19.25 | 11-12 | (4-6) | 94 |
| 14 | Wake Forest | -20 | 9-14 | (2-9) | 99 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | -28.75 | 8-16 | (0-11) | 110 |
Big 10
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purdue | 10 | 23-2 | (12-0) | 3 |
| 2 | Michigan State | 4.75 | 23-3 | (11-2) | 6 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 0.25 | 20-5 | (11-1) | 18 |
| 4 | Michigan | -0.75 | 19-7 | (8-5) | 20 |
| 5 | Maryland | -7 | 16-9 | (5-7) | 49 |
| 6 | Nebraska | -7.5 | 18-8 | (9-4) | 51 |
| 7 | Northwestern | -10 | 15-10 | (6-6) | 61 |
| 8 | Penn State | -13.5 | 16-9 | (6-6) | 77 |
| 9 | Indiana | -15.25 | 13-12 | (6-7) | 81 |
| 10 | Minnesota | -17.75 | 14-12 | (3-10) | 88 |
| 11 | Wisconsin | -19.5 | 10-15 | (3-9) | 97 |
| 12 | Illinois | -19.75 | 12-12 | (2-9) | 98 |
| 13 | Iowa | -22.75 | 12-14 | (3-10) | 102 |
| 14 | Rutgers | -23.25 | 12-14 | (2-11) | 104 |
SEC
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn | 4.5 | 21-2 | (9-1) | 7 |
| 2 | Tennessee | 4 | 18-5 | (8-3) | 9 |
| 3 | Kentucky | -1.5 | 17-7 | (6-5) | 24 |
| T4 | Mississippi St | -5 | 18-6 | (6-5) | 37 |
| T4 | Texas AM | -5 | 15-8 | (4-6) | 38 |
| 6 | Florida | -5.25 | 15-8 | (6-4) | 39 |
| T7 | Missouri | -7 | 16-8 | (6-5) | T47 |
| T7 | Arkansas | -7 | 16-8 | (5-6) | T47 |
| 9 | Alabama | -8.25 | 15-9 | (6-5) | 54 |
| 10 | Georgia | -10.5 | 13-9 | (4-6) | 63 |
| 11 | LSU | -11.75 | 13-9 | (4-6) | 71 |
| 12 | South Carolina | -15 | 13-11 | (4-7) | 80 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | -19.25 | 8-15 | (2-8) | 95 |
| 14 | Ole Miss | -19.5 | 11-13 | (4-7) | 96 |
Big 12
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 5 | 19-4 | (7-3) | 5 |
| 2 | Kansas | 4.25 | 19-5 | (8-3) | 8 |
| 3 | West Virginia | 3 | 18-6 | (7-4) | 12 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0.5 | 16-7 | (6-5) | 17 |
| T5 | Kansas State | -3 | 16-7 | (5-5) | 28 |
| T5 | Texas | -3 | 15-8 | (5-5) | 29 |
| 7 | TCU | -4 | 16-8 | (4-7) | 33 |
| 8 | OK State | -8.75 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 56 |
| 9 | Baylor | -9.5 | 14-10 | (4-7) | 58 |
| 10 | Iowa State | -12.75 | 12-10 | (3-7) | 74 |
Pac 12
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | -1.25 | 19-5 | (9-2) | 22 |
| 2 | Arizona St | -4.5 | 17-6 | (5-6) | 34 |
| 3 | Washington | -5.5 | 17-6 | (7-3) | 40 |
| 4 | UCLA | -8 | 16-7 | (7-4) | T52 |
| 5 | USC | -10.25 | 17-7 | (8-3) | 62 |
| 6 | Utah | -11.25 | 13-9 | (5-6) | 69 |
| 7 | Oregon | -12.75 | 15-8 | (5-5) | 73 |
| 8 | Colorado | -14.25 | 13-10 | (5-6) | 79 |
| 9 | Stanford | -16.75 | 13-11 | (7-4) | 86 |
| 10 | Oregon State | -21.75 | 11-11 | (3-7) | 100 |
| 11 | Washington St | -24.5 | 9-13 | (1-9) | 106 |
| 12 | California | -32.5 | 8-16 | (2-9) | 114 |
American
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati | 3 | 22-2 | (11-0) | 11 |
| 2 | Wichita St | -4.75 | 18-5 | (8-3) | 35 |
| 3 | Houston | -5 | 17-5 | (7-3) | 36 |
| 4 | SMU | -9.75 | 15-8 | (5-5) | 60 |
| 5 | Temple | -13 | 13-10 | (5-6) | 75 |
| 6 | UCF | -13 | 14-9 | (5-6) | 76 |
| 7 | Uconn | -17.5 | 11-12 | (4-6) | 87 |
| 8 | Memphis | -18.5 | 14-10 | (5-6) | 91 |
| 9 | Tulsa | -19 | 13-10 | (6-5) | 92 |
| 10 | Tulane | -19.25 | 13-9 | (4-6) | 93 |
| 11 | E Carolina | -34.25 | 9-13 | (3-8) | 115 |
| 12 | S Florida | -42.25 | 8-16 | (1-10) | 118 |
Big East
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villanova | 11 | 22-1 | (9-1) | 2 |
| 2 | Xavier | 6.75 | 22-3 | (10-2) | 4 |
| 3 | Seton Hall | -1 | 17-6 | (6-4) | 21 |
| 4 | Creighton | -1.5 | 17-6 | (7-4) | 25 |
| 5 | Butler | -2.75 | 17-8 | (7-5) | 27 |
| 6 | Providence | -6.75 | 16-8 | (7-4) | 46 |
| 7 | Marquette | -7.25 | 13-10 | (4-7) | 50 |
| 8 | Georgetown | -16 | 13-10 | (3-9) | 82 |
| 9 | St Johns | -18 | 11-13 | (0-11) | 90 |
| 10 | DePaul | -22 | 9-13 | (2-8) | 101 |
A10
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhode Island | 0.5 | 19-3 | (11-0) | 16 |
| 2 | St Bonaventure | -9 | 16-6 | (6-4) | 57 |
| 3 | VCU | -16.5 | 14-9 | (6-4) | 84 |
| 4 | Davidson | -16.75 | 13-9 | (8-3) | 85 |
| 5 | Duquense | -22.75 | 15-9 | (6-5) | 103 |
| 6 | Dayton | -23.75 | 10-12 | (4-6) | 105 |
| 7 | La Salle | -25.25 | 10-13 | (4-6) | 107 |
| 8 | Saint Louis | -25.5 | 13-11 | (6-5) | 108 |
| 9 | G Mason | -28.75 | 10-13 | (4-6) | 109 |
| 10 | Umass | -29 | 11-13 | (4-7) | 111 |
| 11 | G Washington | -29.5 | 9-14 | (2-8) | 112 |
| 12 | St Josephs | -31 | 9-14 | (4-7) | 113 |
| 13 | Richmond | -34.75 | 8-14 | (6-4) | 116 |
| 14 | Fordham | -36 | 7-15 | (2-8) | 117 |
Other
| Rank | Team | Score | Record | Conf | NatlRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | 2.5 | 21-4 | (11-1) | 13 |
| 2 | St Marys | 0.75 | 23-2 | (12-0) | 15 |
| 3 | Nevada | -3.5 | 20-4 | (9-1) | 31 |
| 4 | New Mexico St | -3.75 | 20-3 | (7-0) | 32 |
| 5 | UL Lafayette | -5.75 | 20-3 | (10-0) | 41 |
| 6 | Boise St | -6.25 | 20-4 | (10-2) | 42 |
| 7 | ETSU | -6.5 | 21-4 | (12-0) | 44 |
| 8 | Mid Tennessee | -6.75 | 18-5 | (10-1) | 45 |
| 9 | Vermont | -9.5 | 19-5 | (9-0) | 59 |
| 10 | W Kentucky | -10.75 | 16-7 | (8-2) | 64 |
| 11 | BYU | -10.75 | 18-7 | (7-5) | 65 |
| T12 | Loy Chic | -11 | 19-5 | (9-3) | 66 |
| T12 | Old Dominion | -11 | 17-5 | (8-2) | 67 |
| 14 | Buffalo | -11.25 | 18-6 | (10-1) | 70 |
| 15 | UNLV | -13.75 | 16-7 | (5-5) | 78 |
| 16 | Fresno St | -16.5 | 17-8 | (7-5) | 83 |
| 17 | San Diego St | -18 | 13-9 | (5-6) | 89 |
