Capstone project
By Priya Malhotra
January 26, 2018
economyindicator <- read.csv("E:/Documents/internship-R/economyindicator.csv")View(economyindicator)library(psych)## Warning: package 'psych' was built under R version 3.4.3summary(economyindicator)## YEAR Fiscal.Deficit CPI..Average. Inflation...WPI..Average.
## 1999-2000:1 Min. :2.540 Min. : 3.400 Min. :3.300
## 2000-01 :1 1st Qu.:4.055 1st Qu.: 3.950 1st Qu.:4.175
## 2001-02 :1 Median :5.340 Median : 5.250 Median :6.000
## 2002-03 :1 Mean :4.953 Mean : 6.357 Mean :5.964
## 2003-04 :1 3rd Qu.:5.862 3rd Qu.: 8.750 3rd Qu.:7.650
## 2004-05 :1 Max. :6.460 Max. :13.000 Max. :9.600
## (Other) :8
## Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation Consumption....of.GDP. Capital.Formation
## Min. : 0.000 Min. :67.10 Min. :22.30
## 1st Qu.: 5.825 1st Qu.:68.08 1st Qu.:25.70
## Median : 7.450 Median :69.20 Median :34.48
## Mean : 9.550 Mean :71.72 Mean :31.58
## 3rd Qu.:13.750 3rd Qu.:76.65 3rd Qu.:35.59
## Max. :20.700 Max. :79.40 Max. :38.11
##
## Saving.Investment.Gap Gross.Domestic.Saving Bank.Credit.Growth
## Min. :23.77 Min. :-4.8900 Min. :15.30
## 1st Qu.:26.70 1st Qu.:-2.8725 1st Qu.:17.00
## Median :31.91 Median :-1.2400 Median :17.85
## Mean :30.64 Mean :-1.4014 Mean :21.29
## 3rd Qu.:33.63 3rd Qu.:-0.5125 3rd Qu.:23.35
## Max. :36.82 Max. : 2.8600 Max. :37.00
##
## Bank.Deposit.growth
## Min. :13.00
## 1st Qu.:16.00
## Median :16.55
## Mean :17.76
## 3rd Qu.:19.52
## Max. :24.00
## describe(economyindicator)## vars n mean sd median trimmed mad min
## YEAR* 1 14 7.50 4.18 7.50 7.50 5.19 1.00
## Fiscal.Deficit 2 14 4.95 1.17 5.34 5.03 0.97 2.54
## CPI..Average. 3 14 6.36 2.96 5.25 6.05 2.30 3.40
## Inflation...WPI..Average. 4 14 5.96 2.11 6.00 5.88 2.74 3.30
## Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation 5 14 9.55 5.84 7.45 9.42 5.71 0.00
## Consumption....of.GDP. 6 14 71.72 4.87 69.20 71.47 2.82 67.10
## Capital.Formation 7 14 31.58 5.63 34.47 31.81 3.24 22.30
## Saving.Investment.Gap 8 14 30.64 4.09 31.91 30.70 3.56 23.77
## Gross.Domestic.Saving 9 14 -1.40 2.01 -1.24 -1.47 1.90 -4.89
## Bank.Credit.Growth 10 14 21.29 6.56 17.85 20.48 3.78 15.30
## Bank.Deposit.growth 11 14 17.76 3.53 16.55 17.63 2.82 13.00
## max range skew kurtosis se
## YEAR* 14.00 13.00 0.00 -1.46 1.12
## Fiscal.Deficit 6.46 3.92 -0.58 -1.03 0.31
## CPI..Average. 13.00 9.60 0.72 -0.74 0.79
## Inflation...WPI..Average. 9.60 6.30 0.20 -1.49 0.56
## Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation 20.70 20.70 0.28 -1.12 1.56
## Consumption....of.GDP. 79.40 12.30 0.56 -1.60 1.30
## Capital.Formation 38.11 15.81 -0.48 -1.62 1.51
## Saving.Investment.Gap 36.82 13.05 -0.36 -1.38 1.09
## Gross.Domestic.Saving 2.86 7.75 0.23 -0.53 0.54
## Bank.Credit.Growth 37.00 21.70 1.08 -0.08 1.75
## Bank.Deposit.growth 24.00 11.00 0.58 -1.07 0.94BOXPLOT
boxplot(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit, main="Boxplot for fiscal deficit of India from 1999-2000 to 2012-13", horizontal = TRUE)
library(car)## Warning: package 'car' was built under R version 3.4.3##
## Attaching package: 'car'## The following object is masked from 'package:psych':
##
## logitscatterplot(economyindicator$CPI..Average., economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit, main="Scatterplot of Fiscal deficit and CPI Average", ylab = "Fiscal Deficit", xlab = "CPI Average")
library(car)scatterplot(economyindicator$Inflation...WPI..Average., economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit, main= "Scatterplot of Fiscal Deficit and WPI Average", ylab = "Fiscal Deficit", xlab = "WPI Average")
plot(jitter(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit),jitter(economyindicator$Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation),main="Fiscal Deficit vs gross fixed capital formation",ylab = "Fiscal Deficit ", xlab="GFCF")
library(lattice)## Warning: package 'lattice' was built under R version 3.4.3scatterplot(Saving.Investment.Gap~Fiscal.Deficit, data = economyindicator,main="Fiscal Deficit vs Saving Investment gap",ylab = "Fiscal Deficit ", xlab="Saving Invst gap" )
library(car)scatterplotMatrix(
economyindicator[
,c("Fiscal.Deficit","Gross.Domestic.Saving","Bank.Credit.Growth","Bank.Deposit.growth")],
spread=FALSE, smoother.args=list(lty=2),
main="Scatter Plot Matrix", diagonal = "histogram")
library(corrgram)## Warning: package 'corrgram' was built under R version 3.4.3temp<-data.frame(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit, economyindicator$Bank.Credit.Growth, economyindicator$Bank.Deposit.growth, economyindicator$CPI..Average.,economyindicator$Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation,economyindicator$Inflation...WPI..Average.,economyindicator$Consumption....of.GDP.,economyindicator$Capital.Formation,economyindicator$Saving.Investment.Gap,economyindicator$Gross.Domestic.Saving)
corrgram(temp, order=TRUE, lower.panel=panel.shade,
upper.panel=panel.pie, text.panel=panel.txt,
main="Corrgram of Fiscal Deficit")
t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Bank.Credit.Growth)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Bank.Credit.Growth
## t = -9.1648, df = 13.832, p-value = 2.997e-07
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -20.15948 -12.50624
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 21.285714t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Bank.Deposit.growth)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Bank.Deposit.growth
## t = -12.871, df = 15.842, p-value = 8.389e-10
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -14.91492 -10.69365
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 17.757143t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$CPI..Average.)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$CPI..Average.
## t = -1.6506, df = 17.001, p-value = 0.1172
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -3.199294 0.390723
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 6.357143t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Inflation...WPI..Average.)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Inflation...WPI..Average.
## t = -1.5695, df = 20.381, p-value = 0.1319
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -2.3540384 0.3311813
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 5.964286t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation
## t = -2.8867, df = 14.05, p-value = 0.01192
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -8.011569 -1.182716
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 9.550000t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Consumption....of.GDP.)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Consumption....of.GDP.
## t = -49.866, df = 14.508, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -69.63094 -63.90621
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 71.721429t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Capital.Formation)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Capital.Formation
## t = -17.32, df = 14.129, p-value = 6.489e-11
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -29.92492 -23.33508
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 31.582857t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Saving.Investment.Gap)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Saving.Investment.Gap
## t = -22.564, df = 15.127, p-value = 4.62e-13
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -28.11189 -23.26239
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 30.640000t.test(economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit,economyindicator$Gross.Domestic.Saving)##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: economyindicator$Fiscal.Deficit and economyindicator$Gross.Domestic.Saving
## t = 10.219, df = 20.966, p-value = 1.347e-09
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 5.061000 7.647571
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y
## 4.952857 -1.401429reg<-lm(Fiscal.Deficit~CPI..Average. + Inflation...WPI..Average. + Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation + Consumption....of.GDP. + Capital.Formation + Saving.Investment.Gap + Gross.Domestic.Saving +Bank.Credit.Growth + Bank.Deposit.growth, data = economyindicator)
summary(reg)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = Fiscal.Deficit ~ CPI..Average. + Inflation...WPI..Average. +
## Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation + Consumption....of.GDP. +
## Capital.Formation + Saving.Investment.Gap + Gross.Domestic.Saving +
## Bank.Credit.Growth + Bank.Deposit.growth, data = economyindicator)
##
## Residuals:
## 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
## 0.200293 -0.102711 -0.077102 -0.269711 0.195366 0.016700 0.310436
## 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
## -0.320443 -0.249713 0.494763 0.027760 -0.001438 -0.303701 0.079502
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 44.68395 16.59532 2.693 0.0545 .
## CPI..Average. 0.30457 0.13522 2.252 0.0874 .
## Inflation...WPI..Average. -0.21003 0.10964 -1.916 0.1279
## Gross.Fixed.Capital.Formation -0.03228 0.08203 -0.394 0.7140
## Consumption....of.GDP. -0.32495 0.15851 -2.050 0.1097
## Capital.Formation -0.13107 0.20578 -0.637 0.5588
## Saving.Investment.Gap -0.39467 0.29518 -1.337 0.2522
## Gross.Domestic.Saving -0.01570 0.14610 -0.107 0.9196
## Bank.Credit.Growth 0.02143 0.03285 0.652 0.5498
## Bank.Deposit.growth -0.05892 0.06856 -0.859 0.4386
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.4397 on 4 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.9569, Adjusted R-squared: 0.86
## F-statistic: 9.869 on 9 and 4 DF, p-value: 0.02076