Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


1/24: The RPI is dumb

I’m going to list five teams, and I want you to consider how they should be ranked relative to each other: Purdue, Michigan, Rhode Island, Gonzaga and Buffalo. Clearly Purdue should be first here. They have the fewest losses of the five teams and the most difficult schedule of the five (per KenPom). On the other end, Buffalo should probably be last of the five. They have five losses, but only one is to a ranked team (Cincinatti), and the other four range from bubble teams (Texas AM, Syracuse) to mediocre teams (St Bonaventure at home, SD State). So they’re not horrible, but probably the worst of the bunch. I would say Rhose Island vs. Michigan vs. Gonzaga is tight. I would probably give Gonzaga a slight edge, with Michigan and Rhode Island essentially tied for 3rd. RI and UM are pretty much even in terms of the AP Poll, KenPom rankings, BPI rankings, and so on, while Gonzaga is typically slightly ahead. Everything I’ve said is pretty much in-line with what the general consensus is regardign these five teams.

However, according to the RPI rankings, the darling child of the NCAA committee, these five teams are ranked as follows:

1st: Rhode Island (9th overall)
2nd: Purdue (10th)
3rd: Buffalo (28th)
4th: Michigan (37th)
5th: Gonzaga (56th)


Oof. Rhose Island the best of the bunch? Buffalo 3rd? Gonzaga last (and 56th overall???) I would argue Purdue being behind Rhode Island is evidence that this ranking system is awful. I would argue 3-loss Gonzaga being almost 30 spots behind 5-loss Buffalo is evidence that this system is awful (up until last night, Buffalo was ranked ahead of Michigan State, who is now 27th. Think about that.). The fact that the committee still is influenced by this mess is unfortunate and ridiculous. Take a look for yourself: (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi)

My rankings certainly aren’t perfect, but at least I have Purdue over Rhose Island. Geez. Like last week, the bubble cut-off in my rankings is 47th place. Also like last week, my rankings still are in love with the Big 12, as it says that 9 out of 10 Big 12 teams would get in the tourney at this point (KSU, OK State, and Baylor being the “controversial” entries). Looking at the resumes of these teams, I agree with my rankings, especially 5-loss Kansas State, who is remarkably still outside many folks’ mock brackets right now.

This includes all games through Tuesday, January 23rd:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Virginia 9.5 19-1 (8-0) 2
2 Purdue 8.5 19-2 (8-0) 5
3 Villanova 7.75 19-1 (7-1) 4
4 Oklahoma 7 15-4 (5-3) 1
5 Kansas 6.25 16-4 (6-2) 6
6 Duke 5.5 18-2 (6-2) 9
7 Xavier 5.5 18-3 (6-2) 8
8 West Virginia 5.5 16-4 (5-3) 7
9 Michigan State 4.25 18-3 (6-2) T15
10 Texas Tech 4.25 16-4 (5-3) 3
11 Clemson 3.75 16-4 (5-3) 10
12 North Carolina 3.25 16-5 (5-3) 12
13 Ohio State 2.75 18-4 (9-0) 22
14 Cincinnati 2.25 17-2 (6-0) 21
15 Gonzaga 2 17-4 (7-1) T15
16 Auburn 1.25 17-2 (5-1) 13
17 TCU 1 15-5 (3-5) 23
18 Michigan 1 17-5 (6-3) 20
19 St Marys 0.5 19-2 (8-0) 32
20 Florida 0.5 14-5 (6-1) 31
21 Tennessee 0.25 14-5 (5-3) 14
22 Kansas State 0.25 15-5 (5-3) T39
23 Rhode Island 0 15-3 (7-0) 25
24 Arizona -0.25 16-4 (6-1) 26
25 Arizona St -0.5 15-4 (3-4) 18
26 Louisville -0.5 15-4 (5-1) 27
27 Nevada -0.75 18-3 (7-0) 30
28 Seton Hall -1 15-5 (4-3) 19
29 Wichita St -1.25 15-4 (5-2) 11
30 Kentucky -1.25 15-5 (5-3) 17
31 Florida State -1.25 14-5 (3-4) 38
32 Miami -1.75 14-4 (3-3) 29
33 Creighton -1.75 16-5 (6-3) 24
34 Marquette -2.5 13-6 (4-3) 28
35 Texas -2.5 13-7 (4-4) 42
36 Butler -3.5 14-7 (4-4) 35
37 New Mexico St -3.75 17-3 (5-0) 46
38 Houston -3.75 15-4 (5-2) 33
39 OK State -4 13-7 (3-5) 44
40 Arkansas -4.25 14-6 (4-4) T39
41 SMU -4.5 14-6 (4-3) 63
42 Boston College -4.5 13-7 (3-4) 36
43 NC State -5 13-7 (3-4) 34
44 Texas AM -5.25 13-7 (2-6) 43
45 Boise St -6 16-4 (6-2) 47
46 Baylor -6 12-8 (2-6) 37
47 Providence -6.25 14-7 (5-3) 59
48 Notre Dame -6.25 13-7 (3-4) 41
49 UL Lafayette -6.25 17-3 (7-0) NA
50 Virginia Tech -6.5 14-6 (3-4) 51
51 Missouri -6.5 13-6 (3-3) 54
52 Alabama -6.5 13-7 (5-3) 55
53 Maryland -6.75 15-7 (4-5) 53
54 Nebraska -6.75 14-8 (5-4) 68
55 Mississippi St -7 14-6 (2-5) 45
56 Syracuse -7.25 13-6 (2-4) 60
57 ETSU -7.25 16-4 (5-0) 56
58 BYU -7.5 17-4 (6-2) 64
59 Mid Tennessee -8 14-5 (6-1) 50
60 Georgia -8.25 12-7 (3-5) 52
61 USC -8.5 15-6 (6-2) 78
62 Washington -8.5 14-6 (4-3) T61
63 UCF -8.5 13-6 (4-3) 66
64 St Bonaventure -8.5 12-6 (2-4) 58
65 UCLA -8.75 13-7 (4-4) 48
66 Loy Chic -8.75 16-4 (6-2) 77
67 Buffalo -8.75 15-5 (7-0) NA
68 Oregon -9 13-7 (3-4) 57
69 Old Dominion -9 15-4 (6-1) 71
70 W Kentucky -9 14-6 (6-1) T61
71 Utah -9 12-7 (4-4) 73
72 Northwestern -9.5 13-9 (4-5) 74
73 LSU -10 12-7 (3-4) 49
74 Georgetown -10 13-6 (3-5) 70
75 Vermont -10 16-5 (6-0) 75
76 South Carolina -10.5 12-7 (3-4) 76
77 Indiana -10.75 12-8 (5-3) 80
78 Iowa State -10.75 11-8 (2-6) 79
79 Uconn -11.25 10-9 (3-3) 65
80 Fresno St -12.5 15-6 (5-3) 89
81 Memphis -12.5 13-7 (4-3) 82
82 Minnesota -12.75 14-9 (3-7) 72
83 UNLV -12.75 14-6 (3-4) 69
84 Davidson -13 10-8 (5-2) 84
85 Colorado -13 12-8 (4-4) 81
86 Stanford -13 11-9 (5-2) 97
87 Tulane -13.25 12-7 (3-4) 88
88 Temple -13.25 10-9 (2-5) 90
89 San Diego St -13.5 11-7 (3-4) 67
90 Rutgers -13.5 12-9 (2-6) 94
91 Wisconsin -14.25 10-11 (3-5) 91
92 Ole Miss -14.5 11-9 (4-4) 86
93 Oregon State -15 11-8 (3-4) 92
94 Penn State -15.25 13-8 (3-5) 93
95 VCU -15.25 13-8 (5-3) 83
96 Georgia Tech -15.5 10-9 (3-3) 95
97 St Johns -16.25 10-11 (0-9) 85
98 Missouri St -16.75 15-7 (5-4) 87
99 Duquense -16.75 14-6 (5-2) 96
100 Wake Forest -17.25 8-12 (1-7) 99
101 Tulsa -17.5 11-9 (4-4) 98
102 DePaul -17.75 8-11 (1-6) 102
103 Iowa -18.75 11-11 (2-7) 104
104 Vanderbilt -18.75 7-13 (2-6) 100
105 Illinois -19 10-11 (0-8) 103
106 St Josephs -19.75 9-9 (4-3) 108
107 Dayton -20 10-10 (4-4) 101
108 Pittsburgh -20.25 8-12 (0-7) 107
109 Washington St -21 9-10 (1-6) 106
110 Umass -22.25 10-10 (3-4) 105
111 G Washington -23 9-11 (2-5) 111
112 La Salle -23.25 8-12 (2-5) 110
113 G Mason -24 9-11 (3-4) 109
114 Saint Louis -26 10-11 (3-5) 112
115 California -27 7-13 (1-6) 113
116 E Carolina -28 8-11 (2-6) 114
117 Richmond -31.75 6-13 (4-3) 117
118 Fordham -32.25 6-13 (1-6) 115
119 S Florida -34.25 7-13 (0-7) 116



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 0.1
2 ACC -4.2667
3 Big East -4.575
4 SEC -6.4821
5 Other -7.6667
6 Big 10 -7.9107
7 Pac 12 -11.125
8 Amer -12.1458
9 A10 -19.6964



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Virginia 9.5 19-1 (8-0) 1
2 Duke 5.5 18-2 (6-2) 6
3 Clemson 3.75 16-4 (5-3) 11
4 North Carolina 3.25 16-5 (5-3) 12
5 Louisville -0.5 15-4 (5-1) 26
6 Florida State -1.25 14-5 (3-4) 31
7 Miami -1.75 14-4 (3-3) 32
8 Boston College -4.5 13-7 (3-4) 42
9 NC State -5 13-7 (3-4) 43
10 Notre Dame -6.25 13-7 (3-4) 48
11 Virginia Tech -6.5 14-6 (3-4) 50
12 Syracuse -7.25 13-6 (2-4) 56
13 Georgia Tech -15.5 10-9 (3-3) 96
14 Wake Forest -17.25 8-12 (1-7) 100
15 Pittsburgh -20.25 8-12 (0-7) 108


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Purdue 8.5 19-2 (8-0) 2
2 Michigan State 4.25 18-3 (6-2) 9
3 Ohio State 2.75 18-4 (9-0) 13
4 Michigan 1 17-5 (6-3) 18
T5 Maryland -6.75 15-7 (4-5) 53
T5 Nebraska -6.75 14-8 (5-4) 54
7 Northwestern -9.5 13-9 (4-5) 72
8 Indiana -10.75 12-8 (5-3) 77
9 Minnesota -12.75 14-9 (3-7) 82
10 Rutgers -13.5 12-9 (2-6) 90
11 Wisconsin -14.25 10-11 (3-5) 91
12 Penn State -15.25 13-8 (3-5) 94
13 Iowa -18.75 11-11 (2-7) 103
14 Illinois -19 10-11 (0-8) 105


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Auburn 1.25 17-2 (5-1) 16
2 Florida 0.5 14-5 (6-1) 20
3 Tennessee 0.25 14-5 (5-3) 21
4 Kentucky -1.25 15-5 (5-3) 30
5 Arkansas -4.25 14-6 (4-4) 40
6 Texas AM -5.25 13-7 (2-6) 44
T7 Missouri -6.5 13-6 (3-3) 51
T7 Alabama -6.5 13-7 (5-3) 52
9 Mississippi St -7 14-6 (2-5) 55
10 Georgia -8.25 12-7 (3-5) 60
11 LSU -10 12-7 (3-4) 73
12 South Carolina -10.5 12-7 (3-4) 76
13 Ole Miss -14.5 11-9 (4-4) 92
14 Vanderbilt -18.75 7-13 (2-6) 104


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Oklahoma 7 15-4 (5-3) 4
2 Kansas 6.25 16-4 (6-2) 5
3 West Virginia 5.5 16-4 (5-3) 8
4 Texas Tech 4.25 16-4 (5-3) 10
5 TCU 1 15-5 (3-5) 17
6 Kansas State 0.25 15-5 (5-3) 22
7 Texas -2.5 13-7 (4-4) 35
8 OK State -4 13-7 (3-5) 39
9 Baylor -6 12-8 (2-6) 46
10 Iowa State -10.75 11-8 (2-6) 78


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona -0.25 16-4 (6-1) 24
2 Arizona St -0.5 15-4 (3-4) 25
T3 USC -8.5 15-6 (6-2) 61
T3 Washington -8.5 14-6 (4-3) 62
5 UCLA -8.75 13-7 (4-4) 65
6 Oregon -9 13-7 (3-4) 68
7 Utah -9 12-7 (4-4) 71
T8 Colorado -13 12-8 (4-4) 85
T8 Stanford -13 11-9 (5-2) 86
10 Oregon State -15 11-8 (3-4) 93
11 Washington St -21 9-10 (1-6) 109
12 California -27 7-13 (1-6) 115


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Cincinnati 2.25 17-2 (6-0) 14
2 Wichita St -1.25 15-4 (5-2) 29
3 Houston -3.75 15-4 (5-2) 38
4 SMU -4.5 14-6 (4-3) 41
5 UCF -8.5 13-6 (4-3) 63
6 Uconn -11.25 10-9 (3-3) 79
7 Memphis -12.5 13-7 (4-3) 81
T8 Tulane -13.25 12-7 (3-4) 87
T8 Temple -13.25 10-9 (2-5) 88
10 Tulsa -17.5 11-9 (4-4) 101
11 E Carolina -28 8-11 (2-6) 116
12 S Florida -34.25 7-13 (0-7) 119


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 7.75 19-1 (7-1) 3
2 Xavier 5.5 18-3 (6-2) 7
3 Seton Hall -1 15-5 (4-3) 28
4 Creighton -1.75 16-5 (6-3) 33
5 Marquette -2.5 13-6 (4-3) 34
6 Butler -3.5 14-7 (4-4) 36
7 Providence -6.25 14-7 (5-3) 47
8 Georgetown -10 13-6 (3-5) 74
9 St Johns -16.25 10-11 (0-9) 97
10 DePaul -17.75 8-11 (1-6) 102


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island 0 15-3 (7-0) 23
2 St Bonaventure -8.5 12-6 (2-4) 64
3 Davidson -13 10-8 (5-2) 84
4 VCU -15.25 13-8 (5-3) 95
5 Duquense -16.75 14-6 (5-2) 99
6 St Josephs -19.75 9-9 (4-3) 106
7 Dayton -20 10-10 (4-4) 107
8 Umass -22.25 10-10 (3-4) 110
9 G Washington -23 9-11 (2-5) 111
10 La Salle -23.25 8-12 (2-5) 112
11 G Mason -24 9-11 (3-4) 113
12 Saint Louis -26 10-11 (3-5) 114
13 Richmond -31.75 6-13 (4-3) 117
14 Fordham -32.25 6-13 (1-6) 118


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 2 17-4 (7-1) 15
2 St Marys 0.5 19-2 (8-0) 19
3 Nevada -0.75 18-3 (7-0) 27
4 New Mexico St -3.75 17-3 (5-0) 37
5 Boise St -6 16-4 (6-2) 45
6 UL Lafayette -6.25 17-3 (7-0) 49
7 ETSU -7.25 16-4 (5-0) 57
8 BYU -7.5 17-4 (6-2) 58
9 Mid Tennessee -8 14-5 (6-1) 59
T10 Loy Chic -8.75 16-4 (6-2) 66
T10 Buffalo -8.75 15-5 (7-0) 67
T12 Old Dominion -9 15-4 (6-1) 69
T12 W Kentucky -9 14-6 (6-1) 70
14 Vermont -10 16-5 (6-0) 75
15 Fresno St -12.5 15-6 (5-3) 80
16 UNLV -12.75 14-6 (3-4) 83
17 San Diego St -13.5 11-7 (3-4) 89
18 Missouri St -16.75 15-7 (5-4) 98