Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


1/16: Who Does My System Love/Hate?

As we dive deeper into the season, more and more “bracketologists” are starting to release mock brackets. This gives us a very early glimpse of who may be comfortably in the tournament right now and who may be a bubble team. It also gives me an idea of where the general consensus may be very different from my rankings generated here. There are several teams that for whatever reason my system loves relative to the Joe Lunardi’s of the world, and some teams my system hates. This week I will highlight a few of these teams.

LOVE:

HATE:

All of this will work itself out over time. Teams like NC State will either crash and burn and fall in my rankings, or continue to do well and get the attention of the “experts” (wouldn’t it be great to just make mock brackets for a living?). Still, it’s interesting to see where my rankings differ from the consensus.

Note that 47th place in this week’s rankings is the current tournament bubble “cut-off line” for any at-large team. So, according to my rankings, this week Boise State would be the last at-large team to make the tournament. The bubble line has now been added to the conference plots later down on the page as a dotted red line.

This includes all games through Monday, January 15th:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Oklahoma 8.5 14-2 (4-1) 4
2 Virginia 7.75 16-1 (5-0) 2
3 Texas Tech 7.5 15-2 (4-1) 3
4 Villanova 7 16-1 (4-1) 5
5 Purdue 7 17-2 (6-0) 8
6 Kansas 6 15-3 (5-1) 12
7 West Virginia 5.25 15-3 (4-2) 1
8 Xavier 4.75 16-3 (4-2) 11
9 Duke 4.25 16-2 (4-2) 9
10 Clemson 3.5 15-2 (4-1) 10
11 Wichita St 3.25 15-2 (5-0) 13
12 North Carolina 3.25 14-4 (3-2) 22
13 Auburn 3 16-1 (4-0) 19
14 Tennessee 2.75 12-4 (3-2) 26
T15 Michigan State 2.25 16-3 (4-2) 6
T15 Gonzaga 2.25 16-3 (6-0) 16
17 Kentucky 2.25 14-3 (4-1) 21
18 Arizona St 2 14-3 (2-3) 7
19 Seton Hall 1.75 15-3 (4-1) 14
20 Michigan 1.75 16-4 (5-2) 35
21 Cincinnati 1.5 16-2 (5-0) 17
22 Ohio State 1.25 15-4 (6-0) 28
23 TCU 0.25 13-4 (1-4) 15
24 Creighton 0 14-4 (4-2) T23
25 Rhode Island 0 13-3 (5-0) 32
26 Arizona -0.5 14-4 (4-1) 25
27 Louisville -1 13-4 (3-1) 39
28 Marquette -1.5 13-6 (4-3) 36
29 Miami -2.25 13-4 (2-3) 27
30 Nevada -2.25 15-3 (4-0) 40
31 Florida -2.25 12-5 (4-1) 18
32 St Marys -2.5 17-2 (6-0) 46
33 Houston -3 14-3 (4-1) 42
34 NC State -3 12-6 (2-3) 50
35 Butler -3 13-7 (3-4) 33
36 Boston College -3.25 13-6 (3-3) 44
37 Baylor -3.25 12-6 (2-4) T29
38 Florida State -3.5 13-5 (2-4) 20
T39 Arkansas -3.5 12-5 (2-3) 37
T39 Kansas State -3.5 12-5 (2-3) 43
41 Notre Dame -3.75 13-5 (3-2) T23
42 Texas -3.75 11-6 (2-3) 48
43 Texas AM -4.25 11-6 (0-5) 31
44 OK State -4.5 12-6 (2-4) T29
45 Mississippi St -4.5 13-4 (1-3) 34
46 New Mexico St -4.75 15-3 (3-0) 60
47 Boise St -5 15-3 (5-1) 59
48 UCLA -5 13-5 (4-2) 47
49 LSU -5.75 11-5 (2-2) 52
50 Mid Tennessee -5.75 13-4 (5-0) 62
51 Virginia Tech -6 13-5 (2-3) 53
52 Georgia -6 11-5 (2-3) 41
53 Maryland -6.25 14-6 (3-4) 38
54 Missouri -6.5 12-5 (2-2) 45
55 Alabama -6.5 11-6 (3-2) 65
56 ETSU -6.75 14-4 (5-0) NA
57 Oregon -7 12-6 (2-3) 77
58 St Bonaventure -7 12-5 (2-3) 57
59 Providence -7.25 13-6 (4-2) 66
60 Syracuse -7.25 12-6 (1-4) 55
T61 Washington -7.25 13-5 (3-2) 56
T61 W Kentucky -7.25 13-5 (5-0) NA
63 SMU -7.25 12-6 (2-3) 49
64 BYU -8 15-4 (4-2) 71
65 Uconn -8 10-7 (3-2) 73
66 UCF -8.25 12-5 (3-2) 51
67 San Diego St -8.25 11-5 (3-2) 64
68 Nebraska -8.25 13-7 (3-3) 58
69 UNLV -8.25 13-4 (2-2) 67
70 Georgetown -8.5 12-5 (2-4) 72
71 Old Dominion -9 13-4 (4-1) 63
72 Minnesota -9 14-6 (3-4) 54
73 Utah -9 10-7 (2-4) 61
74 Northwestern -9.25 11-8 (2-4) 69
75 Vermont -9.25 14-5 (4-0) 80
76 South Carolina -9.5 11-6 (2-3) 74
77 Loy Chic -9.5 14-4 (4-2) 75
78 USC -9.75 13-6 (4-2) 84
79 Iowa State -9.75 10-6 (1-4) 79
80 Indiana -10.5 11-7 (4-2) 85
81 Colorado -10.75 11-7 (3-3) 83
82 Memphis -11 12-6 (3-2) 89
83 VCU -11.25 11-7 (3-2) 78
84 Davidson -11.5 9-7 (4-1) 96
85 St Johns -11.5 10-8 (0-6) 70
86 Ole Miss -12.25 10-7 (3-2) 91
87 Missouri St -12.5 14-5 (4-2) 86
88 Tulane -12.5 11-6 (2-3) 68
89 Fresno St -12.75 13-6 (3-3) 88
90 Temple -13 8-9 (1-5) 87
91 Wisconsin -13.25 9-9 (2-3) 92
92 Oregon State -13.25 10-7 (2-3) 93
93 Penn State -13.75 13-7 (3-4) 76
94 Rutgers -13.75 11-8 (1-5) 81
95 Georgia Tech -14.5 10-7 (3-1) 101
96 Duquense -14.5 13-5 (4-1) 94
97 Stanford -15 10-8 (4-1) 104
98 Tulsa -15.25 10-8 (3-3) 97
99 Wake Forest -15.25 8-9 (1-4) 98
100 Vanderbilt -15.25 6-11 (1-4) 99
101 Dayton -16 9-8 (3-2) 108
102 DePaul -16.25 8-10 (1-5) 90
103 Illinois -17 10-9 (0-7) 95
104 Iowa -17.25 10-9 (1-5) 107
105 Umass -18 10-8 (3-2) 109
106 Washington St -18 9-8 (1-4) 106
107 Pittsburgh -19.25 8-10 (0-5) T102
108 St Josephs -19.75 7-9 (2-3) 100
109 G Mason -19.75 9-9 (3-2) 112
110 La Salle -21 7-11 (1-3) 105
111 G Washington -21 8-10 (1-4) T102
112 Saint Louis -23.75 8-10 (1-3) 110
113 California -25 7-11 (1-4) 111
114 E Carolina -26.75 7-10 (1-5) 114
115 Fordham -27.25 6-11 (1-4) 113
116 S Florida -28.5 7-11 (0-5) 115
117 Richmond -31.5 4-13 (2-3) 116



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 0.275
2 Big East -3.45
3 ACC -4.0167
4 SEC -4.875
5 Other -6.8438
6 Big 10 -7.5714
7 Pac 12 -9.875
8 Amer -10.7292
9 A10 -17.3036



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Virginia 7.75 16-1 (5-0) 2
2 Duke 4.25 16-2 (4-2) 9
3 Clemson 3.5 15-2 (4-1) 10
4 North Carolina 3.25 14-4 (3-2) 12
5 Louisville -1 13-4 (3-1) 27
6 Miami -2.25 13-4 (2-3) 29
7 NC State -3 12-6 (2-3) 34
8 Boston College -3.25 13-6 (3-3) 36
9 Florida State -3.5 13-5 (2-4) 38
10 Notre Dame -3.75 13-5 (3-2) 41
11 Virginia Tech -6 13-5 (2-3) 51
12 Syracuse -7.25 12-6 (1-4) 60
13 Georgia Tech -14.5 10-7 (3-1) 95
14 Wake Forest -15.25 8-9 (1-4) 99
15 Pittsburgh -19.25 8-10 (0-5) 107


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Purdue 7 17-2 (6-0) 5
2 Michigan State 2.25 16-3 (4-2) T15
3 Michigan 1.75 16-4 (5-2) 20
4 Ohio State 1.25 15-4 (6-0) 22
5 Maryland -6.25 14-6 (3-4) 53
6 Nebraska -8.25 13-7 (3-3) 68
7 Minnesota -9 14-6 (3-4) 72
8 Northwestern -9.25 11-8 (2-4) 74
9 Indiana -10.5 11-7 (4-2) 80
10 Wisconsin -13.25 9-9 (2-3) 91
11 Penn State -13.75 13-7 (3-4) 93
12 Rutgers -13.75 11-8 (1-5) 94
13 Illinois -17 10-9 (0-7) 103
14 Iowa -17.25 10-9 (1-5) 104


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Auburn 3 16-1 (4-0) 13
2 Tennessee 2.75 12-4 (3-2) 14
3 Kentucky 2.25 14-3 (4-1) 17
4 Florida -2.25 12-5 (4-1) 31
5 Arkansas -3.5 12-5 (2-3) T39
6 Texas AM -4.25 11-6 (0-5) 43
7 Mississippi St -4.5 13-4 (1-3) 45
8 LSU -5.75 11-5 (2-2) 49
9 Georgia -6 11-5 (2-3) 52
T10 Missouri -6.5 12-5 (2-2) 54
T10 Alabama -6.5 11-6 (3-2) 55
12 South Carolina -9.5 11-6 (2-3) 76
13 Ole Miss -12.25 10-7 (3-2) 86
14 Vanderbilt -15.25 6-11 (1-4) 100


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Oklahoma 8.5 14-2 (4-1) 1
2 Texas Tech 7.5 15-2 (4-1) 3
3 Kansas 6 15-3 (5-1) 6
4 West Virginia 5.25 15-3 (4-2) 7
5 TCU 0.25 13-4 (1-4) 23
6 Baylor -3.25 12-6 (2-4) 37
7 Kansas State -3.5 12-5 (2-3) T39
8 Texas -3.75 11-6 (2-3) 42
9 OK State -4.5 12-6 (2-4) 44
10 Iowa State -9.75 10-6 (1-4) 79


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona St 2 14-3 (2-3) 18
2 Arizona -0.5 14-4 (4-1) 26
3 UCLA -5 13-5 (4-2) 48
4 Oregon -7 12-6 (2-3) 57
5 Washington -7.25 13-5 (3-2) T61
6 Utah -9 10-7 (2-4) 73
7 USC -9.75 13-6 (4-2) 78
8 Colorado -10.75 11-7 (3-3) 81
9 Oregon State -13.25 10-7 (2-3) 92
10 Stanford -15 10-8 (4-1) 97
11 Washington St -18 9-8 (1-4) 106
12 California -25 7-11 (1-4) 113


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Wichita St 3.25 15-2 (5-0) 11
2 Cincinnati 1.5 16-2 (5-0) 21
3 Houston -3 14-3 (4-1) 33
4 SMU -7.25 12-6 (2-3) 63
5 Uconn -8 10-7 (3-2) 65
6 UCF -8.25 12-5 (3-2) 66
7 Memphis -11 12-6 (3-2) 82
8 Tulane -12.5 11-6 (2-3) 88
9 Temple -13 8-9 (1-5) 90
10 Tulsa -15.25 10-8 (3-3) 98
11 E Carolina -26.75 7-10 (1-5) 114
12 S Florida -28.5 7-11 (0-5) 116


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 7 16-1 (4-1) 4
2 Xavier 4.75 16-3 (4-2) 8
3 Seton Hall 1.75 15-3 (4-1) 19
4 Creighton 0 14-4 (4-2) 24
5 Marquette -1.5 13-6 (4-3) 28
6 Butler -3 13-7 (3-4) 35
7 Providence -7.25 13-6 (4-2) 59
8 Georgetown -8.5 12-5 (2-4) 70
9 St Johns -11.5 10-8 (0-6) 85
10 DePaul -16.25 8-10 (1-5) 102


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island 0 13-3 (5-0) 25
2 St Bonaventure -7 12-5 (2-3) 58
3 VCU -11.25 11-7 (3-2) 83
4 Davidson -11.5 9-7 (4-1) 84
5 Duquense -14.5 13-5 (4-1) 96
6 Dayton -16 9-8 (3-2) 101
7 Umass -18 10-8 (3-2) 105
8 St Josephs -19.75 7-9 (2-3) 108
9 G Mason -19.75 9-9 (3-2) 109
10 La Salle -21 7-11 (1-3) 110
11 G Washington -21 8-10 (1-4) 111
12 Saint Louis -23.75 8-10 (1-3) 112
13 Fordham -27.25 6-11 (1-4) 115
14 Richmond -31.5 4-13 (2-3) 117


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 2.25 16-3 (6-0) T15
2 Nevada -2.25 15-3 (4-0) 30
3 St Marys -2.5 17-2 (6-0) 32
4 New Mexico St -4.75 15-3 (3-0) 46
5 Boise St -5 15-3 (5-1) 47
6 Mid Tennessee -5.75 13-4 (5-0) 50
7 ETSU -6.75 14-4 (5-0) 56
8 W Kentucky -7.25 13-5 (5-0) T61
9 BYU -8 15-4 (4-2) 64
10 San Diego St -8.25 11-5 (3-2) 67
11 UNLV -8.25 13-4 (2-2) 69
12 Old Dominion -9 13-4 (4-1) 71
13 Vermont -9.25 14-5 (4-0) 75
14 Loy Chic -9.5 14-4 (4-2) 77
15 Missouri St -12.5 14-5 (4-2) 87
16 Fresno St -12.75 13-6 (3-3) 89