Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


1/2: A New (Surprising) Leader as Conference Play Begins

Cheer up Sooner fans, your football team may have lost a heartbreaking classic Rose Bowl playoff game last night, but I have some good news. Out of nowhere, your basketball team is… #1 in this week’s rankings! I’m surprised too! Freshman phenom Trae Young has led the Sooners to a one-loss start with impressive road wins over top 15 teams Wichita State and TCU last Saturday (where Young went for 39 points and 14 assists). I don’t think any other teams can claim to have two road wins of that caliber. Couple those wins with decent victories over Oregon, USC, and Northwestern (by 26) and you have the best resume according to my system (their one loss was to now-ranked Arkansas early in the season). OU comes out at number 1 despite the fact I only place them in bin 2 (“solidly ranked”) in the subjective component of my rankings. That’s how favorably their resume is viewed by my formula.

Let’s chat about Trae Young for a second. He is currently averaging 29.6 points and 10.7 assists per game, first in the country for BOTH categories. Not only is he first in these stats, he’s WAY in first: 25.3 PPG is the second-highest points/game, and 9.1 APG is the 2nd highest assists/game. He’s not just a ballhog who chucks up inefficient shots all game: he’s shooting 41.3% behind the arc, and has the number 1 assist rate in the country, meaning the proportion of possessions when he’s on the floor that end with him getting an assist are the highest of any player in the country. So he passes a ton, and scores a tons efficiently. All for a team that has the best resume in the country. As a freshman. There’s a great chance that Oklahoma will own both the Hesiman and the Naismith awards this Spring.

As conference plays starts up, the discussion of the “bubble” will start heating up. The rankings here are still a little volatile as teams like Georgetown and Mississippi State are finally starting to play teams with an actual pulse, but as it stands this week, the at-large cut-off is #45 (meaning Florida would be the last team in according to these rankings). Take that with a large grain of salt of course.

This includes all games through Monday, January 1st:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Oklahoma 7 11-1 (1-0) 7
2 Arizona St 6.75 12-1 (0-1) 1
3 Michigan State 5.75 14-1 (2-0) 4
4 Duke 5.5 13-1 (1-1) 5
5 Xavier 5.5 14-1 (2-0) 6
6 West Virginia 5.25 13-1 (2-0) 9
7 Villanova 4.5 13-1 (1-1) 2
8 Texas Tech 4.25 12-1 (1-0) 18
9 Purdue 4.25 13-2 (2-0) 8
10 Texas AM 3.5 11-2 (0-1) 3
11 Virginia 3 12-1 (1-0) 13
T12 Kansas 3 11-2 (1-0) T15
T12 Wichita St 3 11-2 (1-0) 11
14 TCU 2.75 12-1 (0-1) 10
15 North Carolina 2.75 12-2 (1-0) 12
16 Kentucky 2 11-2 (1-0) 23
17 Seton Hall 2 13-2 (2-0) 21
18 Arkansas 2 11-2 (1-0) 25
19 Arizona 1.75 11-3 (1-0) 24
20 Miami 1.25 12-1 (1-0) 19
21 Cincinnati 1.25 12-2 (1-0) 27
22 Tennessee 1.25 9-3 (0-1) 14
23 Gonzaga 1 12-3 (2-0) 17
24 Clemson 1 12-1 (1-0) 22
25 Creighton 0.75 11-3 (1-1) 20
26 Florida State 0.25 11-2 (0-1) 26
27 Baylor 0.25 10-3 (0-1) T15
28 Butler 0.25 12-3 (2-0) T41
29 St Bonaventure -0.5 11-2 (1-0) 29
30 OK State -0.5 10-3 (0-1) 28
31 UCLA -1.25 11-3 (2-0) 43
32 Mississippi St -1.25 12-1 (0-0) 34
33 Auburn -1.5 12-1 (0-0) 32
34 Syracuse -1.5 12-2 (1-0) 38
35 SMU -1.5 12-3 (2-0) T41
36 Notre Dame -1.75 11-3 (1-0) 37
37 Houston -1.75 12-2 (2-0) T45
38 Michigan -1.75 12-3 (1-1) 36
39 Rhode Island -1.75 9-3 (1-0) 40
40 Texas -1.75 10-4 (1-1) 31
41 Minnesota -2 12-3 (1-1) 47
42 Kansas State -2.25 11-3 (1-1) 35
43 Louisville -2.5 10-3 (0-0) 30
44 Marquette -2.5 10-4 (1-1) 51
45 Florida -2.5 9-4 (1-0) 53
46 Boise St -2.75 12-2 (2-0) 56
47 Nevada -2.75 13-3 (2-0) 55
48 Maryland -2.75 12-3 (1-1) 52
49 Missouri -2.75 10-3 (0-0) 48
50 Boston College -2.75 10-4 (1-1) 54
51 Georgia -3 9-3 (0-1) 39
52 Alabama -3 9-4 (1-0) 70
53 St Marys -3.5 13-2 (2-0) 59
54 Ohio State -3.5 11-4 (2-0) 62
55 Utah -3.75 10-3 (2-0) T68
56 Virginia Tech -4 11-3 (0-1) T45
57 UNLV -4.25 11-3 (0-1) 44
58 Washington -5 11-4 (1-1) 64
59 St Johns -5 10-4 (0-2) 33
60 New Mexico St -5 12-3 (0-0) 71
61 Northwestern -5.25 10-5 (1-1) 72
62 LSU -5.25 9-3 (0-0) 75
T63 NC State -5.25 10-4 (0-1) 57
T63 UCF -5.25 10-4 (1-1) 66
65 Georgetown -5.75 10-3 (0-2) 49
66 Nebraska -5.75 10-5 (0-1) 78
67 Coll Charl -5.75 10-3 (1-0) T73
68 BYU -6 12-3 (1-1) 63
T69 San Diego St -6.25 9-4 (1-1) 58
T69 Mid Tennessee -6.25 9-4 (1-0) 77
71 Oregon -6.5 11-4 (1-1) 67
72 Old Dominion -6.5 10-3 (1-0) 81
73 Uconn -6.5 7-6 (0-1) 79
74 Loy Chic -6.75 11-3 (1-1) 85
75 South Carolina -7 9-4 (0-1) T68
76 N Iowa -7 8-6 (0-2) 50
T77 USC -7.25 10-5 (1-1) 65
T77 Providence -7.25 10-5 (1-1) 82
79 VCU -7.25 9-5 (1-0) 86
80 Penn State -7.5 11-4 (1-1) 84
81 Tulane -7.5 10-4 (1-1) 76
82 Fresno St -8 11-4 (1-1) 80
83 Iowa State -8.25 9-4 (0-2) 61
84 Temple -8.25 7-6 (0-2) 60
85 Missouri St -8.25 12-3 (2-0) NA
86 DePaul -8.5 7-7 (0-2) 88
87 Wisconsin -9 8-7 (1-1) 89
88 Vermont -9 8-5 (0-0) 91
89 Illinois -9.25 10-5 (0-2) 92
90 G Washington -9.25 8-6 (1-0) 93
91 Indiana -9.75 8-6 (1-1) 94
92 Rutgers -10 10-5 (0-2) 83
93 Memphis -10.25 9-5 (0-1) T73
94 Ole Miss -10.75 8-5 (1-0) 101
95 Tulsa -11 9-5 (2-0) 99
96 Pittsburgh -11 8-6 (0-1) 100
97 La Salle -11.5 7-7 (1-0) 103
98 Wake Forest -12 7-6 (0-1) 102
99 Oregon State -12.25 9-5 (1-1) 95
100 Iowa -12.5 9-6 (0-2) 105
101 Vanderbilt -12.75 5-8 (0-1) 98
102 Davidson -13 5-7 (0-1) 97
103 Colorado -13 8-6 (0-2) 90
104 Duquense -13 10-4 (1-0) 108
105 Washington St -13.25 8-6 (0-2) 96
106 St Josephs -14 5-7 (0-1) 104
107 Umass -14.75 7-7 (0-1) 107
108 Georgia Tech -15.25 6-7 (0-1) 110
109 California -15.75 7-7 (1-0) 112
110 Dayton -15.75 6-7 (0-1) 106
111 Stanford -17 6-8 (0-1) 109
112 Saint Louis -17.25 7-7 (0-1) 111
113 G Mason -18 6-8 (0-1) 113
114 Fordham -18 5-8 (0-1) 114
115 E Carolina -22 6-7 (0-2) 115
116 S Florida -22.5 7-8 (0-2) 116
117 Richmond -24.75 3-10 (1-0) 117



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 0.975
2 Big East -1.6
3 ACC -2.8167
4 SEC -2.9286
5 Big 10 -4.9286
6 Other -5.4375
7 Pac 12 -7.2083
8 Amer -7.6875
9 A10 -12.7679



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Duke 5.5 13-1 (1-1) 4
2 Virginia 3 12-1 (1-0) 11
3 North Carolina 2.75 12-2 (1-0) 15
4 Miami 1.25 12-1 (1-0) 20
5 Clemson 1 12-1 (1-0) 24
6 Florida State 0.25 11-2 (0-1) 26
7 Syracuse -1.5 12-2 (1-0) 34
8 Notre Dame -1.75 11-3 (1-0) 36
9 Louisville -2.5 10-3 (0-0) 43
10 Boston College -2.75 10-4 (1-1) 50
11 Virginia Tech -4 11-3 (0-1) 56
12 NC State -5.25 10-4 (0-1) T63
13 Pittsburgh -11 8-6 (0-1) 96
14 Wake Forest -12 7-6 (0-1) 98
15 Georgia Tech -15.25 6-7 (0-1) 108


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Michigan State 5.75 14-1 (2-0) 3
2 Purdue 4.25 13-2 (2-0) 9
3 Michigan -1.75 12-3 (1-1) 38
4 Minnesota -2 12-3 (1-1) 41
5 Maryland -2.75 12-3 (1-1) 48
6 Ohio State -3.5 11-4 (2-0) 54
7 Northwestern -5.25 10-5 (1-1) 61
8 Nebraska -5.75 10-5 (0-1) 66
9 Penn State -7.5 11-4 (1-1) 80
10 Wisconsin -9 8-7 (1-1) 87
11 Illinois -9.25 10-5 (0-2) 89
12 Indiana -9.75 8-6 (1-1) 91
13 Rutgers -10 10-5 (0-2) 92
14 Iowa -12.5 9-6 (0-2) 100


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Texas AM 3.5 11-2 (0-1) 10
2 Kentucky 2 11-2 (1-0) 16
3 Arkansas 2 11-2 (1-0) 18
4 Tennessee 1.25 9-3 (0-1) 22
5 Mississippi St -1.25 12-1 (0-0) 32
6 Auburn -1.5 12-1 (0-0) 33
7 Florida -2.5 9-4 (1-0) 45
8 Missouri -2.75 10-3 (0-0) 49
9 Georgia -3 9-3 (0-1) 51
10 Alabama -3 9-4 (1-0) 52
11 LSU -5.25 9-3 (0-0) 62
12 South Carolina -7 9-4 (0-1) 75
13 Ole Miss -10.75 8-5 (1-0) 94
14 Vanderbilt -12.75 5-8 (0-1) 101


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Oklahoma 7 11-1 (1-0) 1
2 West Virginia 5.25 13-1 (2-0) 6
3 Texas Tech 4.25 12-1 (1-0) 8
4 Kansas 3 11-2 (1-0) T12
5 TCU 2.75 12-1 (0-1) 14
6 Baylor 0.25 10-3 (0-1) 27
7 OK State -0.5 10-3 (0-1) 30
8 Texas -1.75 10-4 (1-1) 40
9 Kansas State -2.25 11-3 (1-1) 42
10 Iowa State -8.25 9-4 (0-2) 83


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona St 6.75 12-1 (0-1) 2
2 Arizona 1.75 11-3 (1-0) 19
3 UCLA -1.25 11-3 (2-0) 31
4 Utah -3.75 10-3 (2-0) 55
5 Washington -5 11-4 (1-1) 58
6 Oregon -6.5 11-4 (1-1) 71
7 USC -7.25 10-5 (1-1) T77
8 Oregon State -12.25 9-5 (1-1) 99
9 Colorado -13 8-6 (0-2) 103
10 Washington St -13.25 8-6 (0-2) 105
11 California -15.75 7-7 (1-0) 109
12 Stanford -17 6-8 (0-1) 111


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Wichita St 3 11-2 (1-0) T12
2 Cincinnati 1.25 12-2 (1-0) 21
3 SMU -1.5 12-3 (2-0) 35
4 Houston -1.75 12-2 (2-0) 37
5 UCF -5.25 10-4 (1-1) T63
6 Uconn -6.5 7-6 (0-1) 73
7 Tulane -7.5 10-4 (1-1) 81
8 Temple -8.25 7-6 (0-2) 84
9 Memphis -10.25 9-5 (0-1) 93
10 Tulsa -11 9-5 (2-0) 95
11 E Carolina -22 6-7 (0-2) 115
12 S Florida -22.5 7-8 (0-2) 116


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Xavier 5.5 14-1 (2-0) 5
2 Villanova 4.5 13-1 (1-1) 7
3 Seton Hall 2 13-2 (2-0) 17
4 Creighton 0.75 11-3 (1-1) 25
5 Butler 0.25 12-3 (2-0) 28
6 Marquette -2.5 10-4 (1-1) 44
7 St Johns -5 10-4 (0-2) 59
8 Georgetown -5.75 10-3 (0-2) 65
9 Providence -7.25 10-5 (1-1) T77
10 DePaul -8.5 7-7 (0-2) 86


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 St Bonaventure -0.5 11-2 (1-0) 29
2 Rhode Island -1.75 9-3 (1-0) 39
3 VCU -7.25 9-5 (1-0) 79
4 G Washington -9.25 8-6 (1-0) 90
5 La Salle -11.5 7-7 (1-0) 97
6 Davidson -13 5-7 (0-1) 102
7 Duquense -13 10-4 (1-0) 104
8 St Josephs -14 5-7 (0-1) 106
9 Umass -14.75 7-7 (0-1) 107
10 Dayton -15.75 6-7 (0-1) 110
11 Saint Louis -17.25 7-7 (0-1) 112
12 G Mason -18 6-8 (0-1) 113
13 Fordham -18 5-8 (0-1) 114
14 Richmond -24.75 3-10 (1-0) 117


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 1 12-3 (2-0) 23
2 Boise St -2.75 12-2 (2-0) 46
3 Nevada -2.75 13-3 (2-0) 47
4 St Marys -3.5 13-2 (2-0) 53
5 UNLV -4.25 11-3 (0-1) 57
6 New Mexico St -5 12-3 (0-0) 60
7 Coll Charl -5.75 10-3 (1-0) 67
8 BYU -6 12-3 (1-1) 68
T9 San Diego St -6.25 9-4 (1-1) T69
T9 Mid Tennessee -6.25 9-4 (1-0) T69
11 Old Dominion -6.5 10-3 (1-0) 72
12 Loy Chic -6.75 11-3 (1-1) 74
13 N Iowa -7 8-6 (0-2) 76
14 Fresno St -8 11-4 (1-1) 82
15 Missouri St -8.25 12-3 (2-0) 85
16 Vermont -9 8-5 (0-0) 88