Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: Various beta distributions (Figure 5.1)

References

Beta distribution

The beta distribution has a form of \( \theta^{a-1} (1 - \theta)^{b-1} / B(a,b) \), where the denominator is a normalizing constant.

This is the same form as the Bernoulli likelihood function: \( p(\{y_1,...,Y_N\}|\theta) = \prod_i \theta^{y_i}(1-\theta)^{(1-y_i)} \).

Thus, the posterior distribution which is proportional to the product of the prior distribution and likelihood will also be a beta distribution if the prior distribution is a beta distribution.

Various beta distributions

## Functions that returns probability density
BetaDist <- function(x, a, b) {
    dbeta(x = x, shape1 = a, shape2 = b)
}

## Create data
dat <- expand.grid(a = c(0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4),
                   b = c(0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4),
                   x = seq(from = 0.01, to = 1, by = 0.01))

## Create probability density
dat <- within(dat, {
    BetaDist <- BetaDist(x, a, b)
})



library(ggplot2)
p1 <- ggplot(data = dat, mapping = aes(x = x, y = BetaDist)) +
    layer(geom = "line",
          stat = "identity") +
    scale_y_continuous(name = "Probability density of theta", limits = c(0, 3)) +
    scale_x_continuous(name = "theta", breaks = c(0,0.5,1), labels = c("0",".5","1")) +
    facet_grid(b ~ a)


library(grid)
VP     <- viewport(width = 0.975, height = 0.975, x = 0.0, y = 0.0, just = c(0,0))
InPlot <- p1 + labs(title = "a")
print(InPlot, vp = VP)
grid.text(label = "b", x = 0.975, y = 0.5, rot = 270)

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-2

When a = 1 and b = 1, the prior is uninformative. A larger \( a \) causes a right shift in the peak, whereas a larger \( b \) causes a left shift in the peak.