Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


12/13: Arizona State?

We are roughly one month into the season, and as everyone expected, a team from Arizona is right near the top of the rankings. Of course, everyone thought that team would be the Arizona Wildcats, a preseason top 3 team loaded with talent. But after 3 losses, they are barely scraping the AP top 25. Instead say hello to the Arizona State Sun Devils, the new number 1 team in the BOW+ rankings this week. ASU came into the season with very little expectations, but have taken the country by storm with big wins at Kansas and versus Xavier. Couple those juggernaut wins with nice victories over Kansas State and St Johns and zero losses, and you have what is probably the best resume in college basketball up to this point.

Since these rankings attempt to rank teams on what has been done so far (with a sprinkle of subjectivity), ASU comes in at #1. However, more predictive systems like KenPom and Sagarin’s rankings have not yet bought into the Sun Devil hype. KenPom has ASU at 34th in the country, even though they started the season way down at 100th. Sagarin has them higher at 13th, but overall the advanced metrics are a little hesitant with ASU. These models, despite being successful predicting games over the long run, seem to occassionally just “miss” on certain teams. For example, this year KenPom has UVA 3rd in the country and Sagarin has Purdue 3rd. Now I think those are two great teams, but third in the nation? We’ll see. Another odd example comes from ESPN’s BPI ratings - ESPN’s version of KenPom-like rankings. This system gives Virginia Tech a 52% of chance of winning AT Kentucky on Saturday. Sometimes the advanced models can give awkward outputs.

Here are the 12/13 BOW+ rankings:

This includes all games through Tuesday, December 12th:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Arizona St 7.25 9-0 (0-0) 7
2 Michigan State 6.75 9-1 (2-0) 3
3 Villanova 6.25 10-0 (0-0) 6
4 Duke 5 11-1 (0-0) 1
5 Wichita St 5 8-1 (0-0) 8
6 Texas AM 4.75 8-1 (0-0) 2
7 North Carolina 4.5 9-1 (0-0) 13
8 Xavier 4.5 9-1 (0-0) 5
9 Miami 3.75 8-0 (0-0) 9
10 Purdue 3.75 10-2 (2-0) 19
11 Gonzaga 3.75 8-2 (0-0) 12
12 Seton Hall 3.5 9-1 (0-0) 14
13 Tennessee 3.5 7-1 (0-0) 17
14 TCU 3.25 10-0 (0-0) 22
15 West Virginia 3.25 9-1 (0-0) 23
16 Florida State 3 9-0 (0-0) 15
17 Virginia 2.5 8-1 (0-0) 11
18 Kansas 2.25 7-2 (0-0) 4
19 Kentucky 2 8-1 (0-0) 16
20 Baylor 2 7-2 (0-0) 25
21 Texas Tech 2 7-1 (0-0) 26
22 Notre Dame 1.25 8-2 (0-0) 10
23 Creighton 1.25 7-2 (0-0) T27
24 Oklahoma 0.75 7-1 (0-0) 40
25 N Iowa 0.5 8-2 (0-0) 34
26 Arkansas 0.25 7-2 (0-0) 50
27 Syracuse 0.25 8-1 (0-0) 31
28 Louisville 0 7-2 (0-0) 42
29 Cincinnati -0.25 8-2 (0-0) 24
30 Florida -0.25 6-3 (0-0) 20
31 Georgia -0.5 7-1 (0-0) 36
32 Georgetown -0.5 8-0 (0-0) 37
33 Arizona -0.75 7-3 (0-0) 74
34 Clemson -0.75 8-1 (0-0) 38
35 Nevada -0.75 8-2 (0-0) 21
36 OK State -0.75 7-2 (0-0) 39
T37 NC State -1 8-2 (0-0) 49
T37 Missouri -1 8-2 (0-0) 44
39 Houston -1.25 8-1 (0-0) 48
40 St Johns -1.25 8-2 (0-0) 43
41 Minnesota -1.5 9-3 (1-1) 18
42 Auburn -1.5 8-1 (0-0) T45
43 Rhode Island -1.5 5-3 (0-0) T27
44 Mississippi St -1.5 8-0 (0-0) 32
45 Boise St -1.5 9-1 (0-0) 47
46 Virginia Tech -1.75 9-1 (0-0) 51
47 St Bonaventure -1.75 7-2 (0-0) 55
48 Loy Chic -1.75 10-1 (0-0) NA
T49 Kansas State -2 8-2 (0-0) 33
T49 Butler -2 8-2 (0-0) 58
51 Michigan -2 9-3 (1-1) 68
52 Texas -2 6-3 (0-0) 30
53 UCLA -2.25 7-2 (0-0) 29
54 Temple -2.5 6-2 (0-0) 66
55 Marquette -2.5 7-3 (0-0) 69
56 Mid Tennessee -2.5 7-1 (0-0) 72
57 LSU -2.5 5-2 (0-0) 60
58 SMU -2.75 7-3 (0-0) 57
59 UNLV -2.75 8-2 (0-0) 71
60 Boston College -2.75 8-3 (1-0) 91
61 Utah -3 7-2 (0-0) T45
62 USC -3 4-3 (0-0) 35
63 Towson -3 10-1 (0-0) NA
64 Maryland -3.25 10-3 (1-1) 75
T65 Washington -3.25 7-3 (0-0) 82
T65 Uconn -3.25 7-3 (0-0) 54
67 South Carolina -3.5 8-2 (0-0) 76
68 Ohio State -3.5 8-3 (2-0) 65
69 St Marys -3.75 8-2 (0-0) 67
70 Alabama -3.75 7-3 (0-0) 59
71 W Kentucky -3.75 6-3 (0-0) 56
72 UCF -4 7-3 (0-0) 80
73 Valparaiso -4 8-2 (0-0) 41
74 Coll Charl -4 7-2 (0-0) 77
75 Penn State -4.25 8-3 (1-1) 70
76 Rutgers -4.25 9-3 (0-2) 73
77 BYU -4.5 8-2 (0-0) 83
78 Iowa State -4.5 7-2 (0-0) 79
79 Nebraska -4.5 7-4 (0-1) 87
80 Northwestern -4.75 6-4 (1-1) 88
81 Davidson -4.75 4-3 (0-0) 81
82 Memphis -4.75 7-2 (0-0) 84
T83 Oregon -5 7-3 (0-0) 90
T83 Providence -5 7-3 (0-0) 52
85 Tulane -5 7-3 (0-0) 85
86 DePaul -5.25 6-4 (0-0) 89
87 San Diego St -5.5 7-3 (0-0) 63
88 Colorado -6.5 7-3 (0-0) T61
89 UT Arlington -6.5 7-3 (0-0) 53
90 Indiana -7 5-5 (1-1) 94
91 Vermont -7 7-4 (0-0) 64
92 Old Dominion -7.25 7-3 (0-0) 97
93 Oregon State -7.5 7-3 (0-0) 99
94 Illinois -7.75 7-4 (0-2) 92
95 VCU -7.75 5-5 (0-0) 78
96 Ole Miss -8.25 4-4 (0-0) 96
97 G Washington -8.25 5-5 (0-0) 98
98 La Salle -9 5-6 (0-0) 95
99 Washington St -9 6-3 (0-0) T61
100 Wisconsin -9.25 4-7 (1-1) 86
101 Georgia Tech -9.25 4-4 (0-0) 93
102 Tulsa -9.5 5-4 (0-0) T105
103 St Josephs -9.75 4-5 (0-0) 101
104 Wake Forest -10 6-4 (0-0) T105
105 Vanderbilt -10.25 3-6 (0-0) 100
T106 Pittsburgh -10.75 5-5 (0-0) 108
T106 Umass -10.75 5-5 (0-0) 110
108 Duquense -10.75 5-3 (0-0) 109
109 Dayton -11.5 4-5 (0-0) 103
110 Iowa -12.25 5-6 (0-2) 107
111 Stanford -12.5 4-6 (0-0) 113
112 Saint Louis -13.25 5-5 (0-0) T111
113 E Carolina -13.75 5-4 (0-0) 115
114 G Mason -14 5-6 (0-0) 102
115 California -15.75 4-6 (0-0) 114
116 Fordham -16 4-6 (0-0) T111
117 S Florida -18.5 4-6 (0-0) 116
118 Richmond -21 2-8 (0-0) 117



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 0.425
2 Big East -0.1
3 ACC -1.0667
4 SEC -1.6071
5 Other -3.1912
6 Big 10 -3.8393
7 Amer -5.0417
8 Pac 12 -5.1042
9 A10 -10



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Duke 5 11-1 (0-0) 4
2 North Carolina 4.5 9-1 (0-0) 7
3 Miami 3.75 8-0 (0-0) 9
4 Florida State 3 9-0 (0-0) 16
5 Virginia 2.5 8-1 (0-0) 17
6 Notre Dame 1.25 8-2 (0-0) 22
7 Syracuse 0.25 8-1 (0-0) 27
8 Louisville 0 7-2 (0-0) 28
9 Clemson -0.75 8-1 (0-0) 34
10 NC State -1 8-2 (0-0) T37
11 Virginia Tech -1.75 9-1 (0-0) 46
12 Boston College -2.75 8-3 (1-0) 60
13 Georgia Tech -9.25 4-4 (0-0) 101
14 Wake Forest -10 6-4 (0-0) 104
15 Pittsburgh -10.75 5-5 (0-0) T106


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Michigan State 6.75 9-1 (2-0) 2
2 Purdue 3.75 10-2 (2-0) 10
3 Minnesota -1.5 9-3 (1-1) 41
4 Michigan -2 9-3 (1-1) 51
5 Maryland -3.25 10-3 (1-1) 64
6 Ohio State -3.5 8-3 (2-0) 68
7 Penn State -4.25 8-3 (1-1) 75
8 Rutgers -4.25 9-3 (0-2) 76
9 Nebraska -4.5 7-4 (0-1) 79
10 Northwestern -4.75 6-4 (1-1) 80
11 Indiana -7 5-5 (1-1) 90
12 Illinois -7.75 7-4 (0-2) 94
13 Wisconsin -9.25 4-7 (1-1) 100
14 Iowa -12.25 5-6 (0-2) 110


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Texas AM 4.75 8-1 (0-0) 6
2 Tennessee 3.5 7-1 (0-0) 13
3 Kentucky 2 8-1 (0-0) 19
4 Arkansas 0.25 7-2 (0-0) 26
5 Florida -0.25 6-3 (0-0) 30
6 Georgia -0.5 7-1 (0-0) 31
7 Missouri -1 8-2 (0-0) T37
8 Auburn -1.5 8-1 (0-0) 42
9 Mississippi St -1.5 8-0 (0-0) 44
10 LSU -2.5 5-2 (0-0) 57
11 South Carolina -3.5 8-2 (0-0) 67
12 Alabama -3.75 7-3 (0-0) 70
13 Ole Miss -8.25 4-4 (0-0) 96
14 Vanderbilt -10.25 3-6 (0-0) 105


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 TCU 3.25 10-0 (0-0) 14
2 West Virginia 3.25 9-1 (0-0) 15
3 Kansas 2.25 7-2 (0-0) 18
4 Baylor 2 7-2 (0-0) 20
5 Texas Tech 2 7-1 (0-0) 21
6 Oklahoma 0.75 7-1 (0-0) 24
7 OK State -0.75 7-2 (0-0) 36
8 Kansas State -2 8-2 (0-0) T49
9 Texas -2 6-3 (0-0) 52
10 Iowa State -4.5 7-2 (0-0) 78


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona St 7.25 9-0 (0-0) 1
2 Arizona -0.75 7-3 (0-0) 33
3 UCLA -2.25 7-2 (0-0) 53
4 Utah -3 7-2 (0-0) 61
5 USC -3 4-3 (0-0) 62
6 Washington -3.25 7-3 (0-0) T65
7 Oregon -5 7-3 (0-0) T83
8 Colorado -6.5 7-3 (0-0) 88
9 Oregon State -7.5 7-3 (0-0) 93
10 Washington St -9 6-3 (0-0) 99
11 Stanford -12.5 4-6 (0-0) 111
12 California -15.75 4-6 (0-0) 115


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Wichita St 5 8-1 (0-0) 5
2 Cincinnati -0.25 8-2 (0-0) 29
3 Houston -1.25 8-1 (0-0) 39
4 Temple -2.5 6-2 (0-0) 54
5 SMU -2.75 7-3 (0-0) 58
6 Uconn -3.25 7-3 (0-0) T65
7 UCF -4 7-3 (0-0) 72
8 Memphis -4.75 7-2 (0-0) 82
9 Tulane -5 7-3 (0-0) 85
10 Tulsa -9.5 5-4 (0-0) 102
11 E Carolina -13.75 5-4 (0-0) 113
12 S Florida -18.5 4-6 (0-0) 117


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 6.25 10-0 (0-0) 3
2 Xavier 4.5 9-1 (0-0) 8
3 Seton Hall 3.5 9-1 (0-0) 12
4 Creighton 1.25 7-2 (0-0) 23
5 Georgetown -0.5 8-0 (0-0) 32
6 St Johns -1.25 8-2 (0-0) 40
7 Butler -2 8-2 (0-0) T49
8 Marquette -2.5 7-3 (0-0) 55
9 Providence -5 7-3 (0-0) T83
10 DePaul -5.25 6-4 (0-0) 86


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island -1.5 5-3 (0-0) 43
2 St Bonaventure -1.75 7-2 (0-0) 47
3 Davidson -4.75 4-3 (0-0) 81
4 VCU -7.75 5-5 (0-0) 95
5 G Washington -8.25 5-5 (0-0) 97
6 La Salle -9 5-6 (0-0) 98
7 St Josephs -9.75 4-5 (0-0) 103
8 Umass -10.75 5-5 (0-0) T106
9 Duquense -10.75 5-3 (0-0) 108
10 Dayton -11.5 4-5 (0-0) 109
11 Saint Louis -13.25 5-5 (0-0) 112
12 G Mason -14 5-6 (0-0) 114
13 Fordham -16 4-6 (0-0) 116
14 Richmond -21 2-8 (0-0) 118


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 3.75 8-2 (0-0) 11
2 N Iowa 0.5 8-2 (0-0) 25
3 Nevada -0.75 8-2 (0-0) 35
4 Boise St -1.5 9-1 (0-0) 45
5 Loy Chic -1.75 10-1 (0-0) 48
6 Mid Tennessee -2.5 7-1 (0-0) 56
7 UNLV -2.75 8-2 (0-0) 59
8 Towson -3 10-1 (0-0) 63
9 St Marys -3.75 8-2 (0-0) 69
10 W Kentucky -3.75 6-3 (0-0) 71
11 Valparaiso -4 8-2 (0-0) 73
12 Coll Charl -4 7-2 (0-0) 74
13 BYU -4.5 8-2 (0-0) 77
14 San Diego St -5.5 7-3 (0-0) 87
15 UT Arlington -6.5 7-3 (0-0) 89
16 Vermont -7 7-4 (0-0) 91
17 Old Dominion -7.25 7-3 (0-0) 92