Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


11/28: Post-Feast Week

If you are a normal person, you spent Thanksgiving week eating gobs of food and enjoying time with your friends and family. If you are not a normal person, like me, you probably spent an inordinate amount of time absorbing as much college basketball as you possibly could. There were tons of games this week, and if you weren’t constantly paying attention then you probably missed a few interesting results. We saw Alabama play 3-on-5 versus Minnesota (and almost win!), preseason title contender Arizona lose three games in three days, and teams like Arizona State, Tennessee, and Virginia make a name for themselves. It was very overwhelming. If you need to catch up, the BOW+ rankings are here to help.

Since we acquired so many informative data points over the past seven days, the rankings are starting to look more sensible. The large amount of new information gives much fewer ties this week. Teams that have gone out and won multiple quality games - Texas AM, Arizona St, Virginia, Baylor, etc. - are going to be higher here than in the human polls because their bodies of work are better at this point. Texas AM in particular is a BOW+ darling early in the year - two top-25 victories (WV and at USC) in addition to several other solid wins will do that for you.

Here are the 11/28 power rankings. For now, I intend to release the rankings once a week, perhaps every Tuesday afternoon like this week.

This includes all games through Monday, November 27th:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Duke 7.5 8-0 (0-0) 1
2 Texas AM 6.5 6-0 (0-0) 3
3 Kansas 4.75 5-0 (0-0) 2
4 Michigan State 4.75 5-1 (0-0) 12
5 Notre Dame 4.25 6-0 (0-0) 14
6 Minnesota 4.25 7-0 (0-0) T7
7 Florida 4 5-1 (0-0) 11
8 Villanova 3.5 6-0 (0-0) T4
T9 Virginia 3.5 7-0 (0-0) T24
T9 Baylor 3.5 5-0 (0-0) 15
11 North Carolina 3 5-1 (0-0) 13
12 Arizona St 3 6-0 (0-0) T34
13 Kentucky 2.75 6-1 (0-0) 19
14 Gonzaga 2.75 5-1 (0-0) T22
15 Wichita St 2.25 4-1 (0-0) 6
16 Creighton 2.25 5-1 (0-0) 26
T17 Louisville 2 4-0 (0-0) T16
T17 Miami 2 5-0 (0-0) T16
T17 Cincinnati 2 7-0 (0-0) T16
20 Texas Tech 1.75 6-0 (0-0) 21
21 USC 1.5 4-1 (0-0) T7
22 West Virginia 1.25 6-1 (0-0) 32
23 Xavier 1.25 5-1 (0-0) T7
24 TCU 1.25 6-0 (0-0) 33
25 Nevada 1.25 6-0 (0-0) T30
26 Tennessee 1.25 4-1 (0-0) T34
27 UCLA 1 5-1 (0-0) 29
28 Washington St 1 6-0 (0-0) T68
29 Alabama 0.75 5-1 (0-0) T24
30 Arkansas 0.75 4-1 (0-0) T34
31 Texas 0.5 4-2 (0-0) T34
32 Syracuse 0.5 6-0 (0-0) T34
33 UNLV 0.25 6-0 (0-0) NA
34 Seton Hall 0 5-1 (0-0) 20
T35 Florida State 0 5-0 (0-0) T34
T35 Illinois 0 6-0 (0-0) T34
T35 Mississippi St 0 5-0 (0-0) T34
38 Providence -0.25 5-1 (0-0) 55
39 Purdue -0.5 5-2 (0-0) T7
40 Penn State -0.5 6-1 (0-0) 50
T41 Colorado -0.5 6-0 (0-0) T51
T41 Georgetown -0.5 4-0 (0-0) T51
43 Oklahoma -0.75 4-1 (0-0) T34
44 Rhode Island -0.75 3-2 (0-0) 67
45 Vermont -0.75 5-1 (0-0) 72
46 N Iowa -0.75 5-2 (0-0) NA
T47 Georgia -1 5-1 (0-0) T34
T47 Kansas State -1 5-1 (0-0) T34
T49 Georgia Tech -1 3-1 (0-0) 57
T49 Temple -1 3-1 (0-0) 28
51 OK State -1 5-1 (0-0) 58
T52 Rutgers -1 6-0 (0-0) 60
T52 Loy Chic -1 7-0 (0-0) NA
54 St Johns -1.25 6-1 (0-0) T34
55 Utah -1.25 5-1 (0-0) T30
56 Michigan -1.5 6-1 (0-0) 70
57 Clemson -1.5 5-1 (0-0) 64
T58 Ole Miss -1.5 4-1 (0-0) T65
T58 Auburn -1.5 4-1 (0-0) T65
60 Missouri -1.5 5-2 (0-0) 71
61 Marquette -1.5 3-2 (0-0) 56
62 UT Arlington -1.5 5-1 (0-0) 62
63 Uconn -1.75 4-2 (0-0) T34
64 LSU -2 3-2 (0-0) 59
65 Memphis -2 3-1 (0-0) 76
66 W Kentucky -2 4-2 (0-0) NA
67 Virginia Tech -2.25 5-1 (0-0) 73
68 Boise St -2.25 5-1 (0-0) 77
69 St Marys -2.5 5-2 (0-0) T22
70 Butler -2.5 5-2 (0-0) 61
71 Northwestern -2.5 4-2 (0-0) 81
72 South Carolina -2.5 5-1 (0-0) 78
73 Maryland -2.75 6-2 (0-0) 27
74 Houston -3 4-1 (0-0) 85
T75 Ohio State -3 5-2 (0-0) T51
T75 San Diego St -3 5-2 (0-0) T87
T77 Oregon -3.25 5-2 (0-0) T34
T77 SMU -3.25 5-2 (0-0) T34
79 Wisconsin -3.25 3-4 (0-0) 83
80 NC State -3.25 5-2 (0-0) T51
81 UCF -3.25 4-2 (0-0) T34
82 Boston College -3.25 5-2 (0-0) 75
83 Mid Tennessee -3.5 4-1 (0-0) 92
84 Tulane -3.75 5-1 (0-0) T68
85 St Bonaventure -4 3-2 (0-0) 94
86 Arizona -4.25 3-3 (0-0) T4
T87 VCU -4.25 3-3 (0-0) 91
T87 Davidson -4.25 2-2 (0-0) 74
T89 Washington -4.25 4-2 (0-0) 100
T89 BYU -4.25 4-2 (0-0) 84
T89 Coll Charl -4.25 4-2 (0-0) 63
T92 Iowa -4.5 4-2 (0-0) T96
T92 Iowa State -4.5 4-2 (0-0) 101
94 La Salle -4.5 4-3 (0-0) 99
95 DePaul -4.5 2-4 (0-0) 90
96 Indiana -4.75 4-2 (0-0) 98
97 Nebraska -4.75 5-2 (0-0) T87
98 Vanderbilt -5.25 2-4 (0-0) 82
99 Old Dominion -5.25 5-2 (0-0) 79
100 Dayton -5.25 3-2 (0-0) T102
101 Saint Louis -6 3-2 (0-0) 80
102 G Mason -6 3-3 (0-0) 95
103 Umass -6.25 3-3 (0-0) 93
104 St Josephs -7 3-3 (0-0) 89
105 Oregon State -7.5 3-3 (0-0) 86
106 Tulsa -7.75 3-3 (0-0) 110
107 Yale -8.25 4-4 (0-0) 106
108 G Washington -8.25 2-4 (0-0) 105
109 Duquense -8.5 2-2 (0-0) 104
110 Stanford -9.5 3-5 (0-0) T96
111 Fordham -9.5 2-3 (0-0) 113
112 S Florida -10 4-3 (0-0) 109
113 Pittsburgh -10.25 2-4 (0-0) 114
114 California -10.5 2-4 (0-0) 108
115 Wake Forest -11 2-4 (0-0) 115
116 Richmond -13.5 1-5 (0-0) 112
117 E Carolina -13.75 2-4 (0-0) 111



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 0.575
2 SEC 0.0536
3 Big East -0.35
4 ACC -0.65
5 Big 10 -1.4286
6 Other -2.1875
7 Pac 12 -2.875
8 Amer -3.7708
9 A10 -6.2857



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Duke 7.5 8-0 (0-0) 1
2 Notre Dame 4.25 6-0 (0-0) 5
3 Virginia 3.5 7-0 (0-0) T9
4 North Carolina 3 5-1 (0-0) 11
T5 Louisville 2 4-0 (0-0) T17
T5 Miami 2 5-0 (0-0) T17
7 Syracuse 0.5 6-0 (0-0) 32
8 Florida State 0 5-0 (0-0) T35
9 Georgia Tech -1 3-1 (0-0) T49
10 Clemson -1.5 5-1 (0-0) 57
11 Virginia Tech -2.25 5-1 (0-0) 67
12 NC State -3.25 5-2 (0-0) 80
13 Boston College -3.25 5-2 (0-0) 82
14 Pittsburgh -10.25 2-4 (0-0) 113
15 Wake Forest -11 2-4 (0-0) 115


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Michigan State 4.75 5-1 (0-0) 4
2 Minnesota 4.25 7-0 (0-0) 6
3 Illinois 0 6-0 (0-0) T35
4 Purdue -0.5 5-2 (0-0) 39
5 Penn State -0.5 6-1 (0-0) 40
6 Rutgers -1 6-0 (0-0) T52
7 Michigan -1.5 6-1 (0-0) 56
8 Northwestern -2.5 4-2 (0-0) 71
9 Maryland -2.75 6-2 (0-0) 73
10 Ohio State -3 5-2 (0-0) T75
11 Wisconsin -3.25 3-4 (0-0) 79
12 Iowa -4.5 4-2 (0-0) T92
13 Indiana -4.75 4-2 (0-0) 96
14 Nebraska -4.75 5-2 (0-0) 97


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Texas AM 6.5 6-0 (0-0) 2
2 Florida 4 5-1 (0-0) 7
3 Kentucky 2.75 6-1 (0-0) 13
4 Tennessee 1.25 4-1 (0-0) 26
5 Alabama 0.75 5-1 (0-0) 29
6 Arkansas 0.75 4-1 (0-0) 30
7 Mississippi St 0 5-0 (0-0) T35
8 Georgia -1 5-1 (0-0) T47
T9 Ole Miss -1.5 4-1 (0-0) T58
T9 Auburn -1.5 4-1 (0-0) T58
11 Missouri -1.5 5-2 (0-0) 60
12 LSU -2 3-2 (0-0) 64
13 South Carolina -2.5 5-1 (0-0) 72
14 Vanderbilt -5.25 2-4 (0-0) 98


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Kansas 4.75 5-0 (0-0) 3
2 Baylor 3.5 5-0 (0-0) T9
3 Texas Tech 1.75 6-0 (0-0) 20
4 West Virginia 1.25 6-1 (0-0) 22
5 TCU 1.25 6-0 (0-0) 24
6 Texas 0.5 4-2 (0-0) 31
7 Oklahoma -0.75 4-1 (0-0) 43
8 Kansas State -1 5-1 (0-0) T47
9 OK State -1 5-1 (0-0) 51
10 Iowa State -4.5 4-2 (0-0) T92


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona St 3 6-0 (0-0) 12
2 USC 1.5 4-1 (0-0) 21
3 UCLA 1 5-1 (0-0) 27
4 Washington St 1 6-0 (0-0) 28
5 Colorado -0.5 6-0 (0-0) T41
6 Utah -1.25 5-1 (0-0) 55
7 Oregon -3.25 5-2 (0-0) T77
8 Arizona -4.25 3-3 (0-0) 86
9 Washington -4.25 4-2 (0-0) T89
10 Oregon State -7.5 3-3 (0-0) 105
11 Stanford -9.5 3-5 (0-0) 110
12 California -10.5 2-4 (0-0) 114


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Wichita St 2.25 4-1 (0-0) 15
2 Cincinnati 2 7-0 (0-0) T17
3 Temple -1 3-1 (0-0) T49
4 Uconn -1.75 4-2 (0-0) 63
5 Memphis -2 3-1 (0-0) 65
6 Houston -3 4-1 (0-0) 74
7 SMU -3.25 5-2 (0-0) T77
8 UCF -3.25 4-2 (0-0) 81
9 Tulane -3.75 5-1 (0-0) 84
10 Tulsa -7.75 3-3 (0-0) 106
11 S Florida -10 4-3 (0-0) 112
12 E Carolina -13.75 2-4 (0-0) 117


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 3.5 6-0 (0-0) 8
2 Creighton 2.25 5-1 (0-0) 16
3 Xavier 1.25 5-1 (0-0) 23
4 Seton Hall 0 5-1 (0-0) 34
5 Providence -0.25 5-1 (0-0) 38
6 Georgetown -0.5 4-0 (0-0) T41
7 St Johns -1.25 6-1 (0-0) 54
8 Marquette -1.5 3-2 (0-0) 61
9 Butler -2.5 5-2 (0-0) 70
10 DePaul -4.5 2-4 (0-0) 95


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island -0.75 3-2 (0-0) 44
2 St Bonaventure -4 3-2 (0-0) 85
T3 VCU -4.25 3-3 (0-0) T87
T3 Davidson -4.25 2-2 (0-0) T87
5 La Salle -4.5 4-3 (0-0) 94
6 Dayton -5.25 3-2 (0-0) 100
7 Saint Louis -6 3-2 (0-0) 101
8 G Mason -6 3-3 (0-0) 102
9 Umass -6.25 3-3 (0-0) 103
10 St Josephs -7 3-3 (0-0) 104
11 G Washington -8.25 2-4 (0-0) 108
12 Duquense -8.5 2-2 (0-0) 109
13 Fordham -9.5 2-3 (0-0) 111
14 Richmond -13.5 1-5 (0-0) 116


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Gonzaga 2.75 5-1 (0-0) 14
2 Nevada 1.25 6-0 (0-0) 25
3 UNLV 0.25 6-0 (0-0) 33
4 Vermont -0.75 5-1 (0-0) 45
5 N Iowa -0.75 5-2 (0-0) 46
6 Loy Chic -1 7-0 (0-0) T52
7 UT Arlington -1.5 5-1 (0-0) 62
8 W Kentucky -2 4-2 (0-0) 66
9 Boise St -2.25 5-1 (0-0) 68
10 St Marys -2.5 5-2 (0-0) 69
11 San Diego St -3 5-2 (0-0) T75
12 Mid Tennessee -3.5 4-1 (0-0) 83
T13 BYU -4.25 4-2 (0-0) T89
T13 Coll Charl -4.25 4-2 (0-0) T89
15 Old Dominion -5.25 5-2 (0-0) 99
16 Yale -8.25 4-4 (0-0) 107