Welcome

If you’ve been following my college football rankings this fall, you already know the drill of how these rankings work. Basically, I have wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. It is essentially a ranking of the resumes of teams, plus a sprinkle of subjectivity (not my personal opinion, but the general consensus opinion of the media/other rankings, etc.). If I were to come up with a snazzy name for this system, it would be the BOW+ rankings - or the Bodies Of Work (+ subjectivity) rankings.

Within the context of college football, I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare bodies of work of different teams. For the first time ever, I am attempting to apply this approach to college basketball teams. It may provide valuable insight into which teams are favored by the tournament selection committee, or it could crash and burn. Who knows! Consider this season a test run for applying my rankings approach to college basketball. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

The approach is identical to what I do for football. Speaking of which, you can find all of my football rankings and previous basketball rankings here: (http://rpubs.com/ditrapani4)

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 21 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.


11/22: Early Reactions

Welcome to an experiment. As I discuss above, I am trying out this method for the first time ever on college basketball. I feel it went relatively well for football, so I thought the same principles could fruitfully be applied to basketball as well. However, I really have no idea what will happen, so we will find out together and don’t hold it against me if Fordham ends up at #1 at the end of the season!

Some basic info: I will only be ranking teams from the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, AAC, and Atlantic 10, as well as a handful of other teams like Gonzaga, St Mary’s, etc. (these teams will bounce in and out of the page as random teams emerge throughout the season). I will try to update the page twice a week, maybe something like every Friday and Monday. The page will clearly show when the rankings have been updated last (today’s rankings consist of all games through Tuesday night). If you are familiar with the football rankings, you know that there are some cool plots that I make for each division/conference. I WILL have those, but a little later in the season. They are a little messy right now due to so many ties.

Things are a bit wonky at the beginning of the season. The first thing you may notice is that there are a large amount of ties. This makes sense early in the year: we generally think that, say, Syracuse and Florida State are roughly on the same level (tier 0), and neither team has played anyone of note so far, so they end up tied. A bunch of teams fall into that category. You may also notice that when there have been informative results, they have been wildly influential and lead to some puzzling outcomes.

For example, Texas AM has one of the best wins of the season thus far, beating a ranked West Virginia by over 20 points (and decent wins against OK State and Penn State). That, coupled with the fact that they are considered a consensus ranked team, has them all the way at the #3 spot. Arizona, a team that is widely considered to be better than Texas AM, is below the Aggies at T4th. Remember, this is a ranking of bodies of work, so anyone who has a great win like Texas AM will be rewarded handsomely at this point. The same goes in the opposite direction: if a team has lost thus far this season, there is a good chance they will be behind a “bad” undefeated team that hasn’t been tested yet (for example, Rutgers is ahead of Wisconsin).

The same phenomenon happened in the college football rankings, and things leveled off as more results trickled in. Of course, the football season only has 12 games, so it will be interesting to see what happens with a sport with around 30 games per season.

One last note. You will see there is a column for the “previous rank” of each team. Since this is the first batch of rankings, today this column indicates where the team was ranked before any games were played, so it’s an indicator of how a team has moved up/down early in the season relative to preseason expectations.

Here is the inaugural BOW+ rankings for college basketball. You will then find conference rankings later on. Remember, plots will come later in the season.

This includes all games through Tuesday, Novermber 22nd:

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank
1 Duke 4.75 5-0 (0-0) T1
2 Kansas 4.5 4-0 (0-0) T1
3 Texas AM 4.5 4-0 (0-0) T22
T4 Arizona 3 3-0 (0-0) T1
T4 Villanova 3 3-0 (0-0) T1
6 Wichita St 3 4-0 (0-0) T6
T7 Minnesota 2.75 5-0 (0-0) T9
T7 Purdue 2.75 4-0 (0-0) T18
T7 USC 2.75 3-0 (0-0) T9
T7 Xavier 2.75 4-0 (0-0) T9
11 Florida 2.5 3-0 (0-0) T6
12 Michigan State 2.5 2-1 (0-0) T1
13 North Carolina 2.5 3-0 (0-0) T9
14 Notre Dame 2.25 5-0 (0-0) T9
15 Baylor 2.25 5-0 (0-0) T22
T16 Louisville 2 3-0 (0-0) T9
T16 Miami 2 3-0 (0-0) T9
T16 Cincinnati 2 5-0 (0-0) T9
19 Kentucky 2 4-1 (0-0) T6
20 Seton Hall 1.75 4-0 (0-0) T22
21 Texas Tech 1.75 4-0 (0-0) T34
T22 Gonzaga 1.5 3-0 (0-0) T18
T22 St Marys 1.5 4-0 (0-0) T18
T24 Virginia 1.25 4-0 (0-0) T22
T24 Alabama 1.25 4-0 (0-0) T22
26 Creighton 1.25 4-1 (0-0) T34
27 Maryland 1 5-0 (0-0) T34
28 Temple 1 3-0 (0-0) T71
29 UCLA 0.75 4-1 (0-0) T22
T30 Utah 0.75 4-0 (0-0) T34
T30 Nevada 0.75 5-0 (0-0) T34
32 West Virginia 0.5 3-1 (0-0) T9
33 TCU 0.5 4-0 (0-0) T29
T34 Florida State 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Syracuse 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Illinois 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Tennessee 0 2-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Georgia 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Arkansas 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Mississippi St 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Oklahoma 0 2-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Texas 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Kansas State 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Oregon 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
T34 Arizona St 0 4-0 (0-0) T71
T34 Uconn 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 UCF 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T34 SMU 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
T34 St Johns 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
50 Penn State -0.5 5-1 (0-0) T34
T51 NC State -0.5 4-0 (0-0) T71
T51 Ohio State -0.5 4-0 (0-0) T71
T51 Colorado -0.5 5-0 (0-0) T71
T51 Georgetown -0.5 3-0 (0-0) T71
55 Providence -0.75 3-1 (0-0) T29
56 Marquette -0.75 2-2 (0-0) T34
57 Georgia Tech -1 1-1 (0-0) T34
58 OK State -1 4-1 (0-0) T71
59 LSU -1 3-1 (0-0) T71
60 Rutgers -1 5-0 (0-0) T88
61 Butler -1.25 3-1 (0-0) T34
62 UT Arlington -1.25 2-1 (0-0) T88
63 Coll Charl -1.25 2-1 (0-0) T88
64 Clemson -1.5 4-1 (0-0) T34
T65 Ole Miss -1.5 3-1 (0-0) T34
T65 Auburn -1.5 3-1 (0-0) T34
67 Rhode Island -1.5 2-1 (0-0) T22
T68 Washington St -1.5 3-0 (0-0) T103
T68 Tulane -1.5 4-0 (0-0) T109
70 Michigan -1.75 4-1 (0-0) T34
71 Missouri -1.75 3-1 (0-0) T29
72 Vermont -1.75 3-1 (0-0) T71
73 Virginia Tech -2 4-1 (0-0) T29
74 Davidson -2 2-1 (0-0) T34
75 Boston College -2 4-1 (0-0) T88
76 Memphis -2 2-1 (0-0) T88
77 Boise St -2.25 4-1 (0-0) T88
78 South Carolina -2.5 4-1 (0-0) T34
79 Old Dominion -2.5 4-1 (0-0) T88
80 Saint Louis -2.5 3-1 (0-0) T103
81 Northwestern -2.75 3-2 (0-0) T18
82 Vanderbilt -2.75 2-2 (0-0) T34
83 Wisconsin -2.75 2-3 (0-0) T29
84 BYU -2.75 2-1 (0-0) T71
85 Houston -3 3-1 (0-0) T34
86 Oregon State -3 2-1 (0-0) T71
T87 Nebraska -3 3-1 (0-0) T88
T87 San Diego St -3 3-1 (0-0) T71
89 St Josephs -3.25 2-1 (0-0) T71
90 DePaul -3.25 1-2 (0-0) T88
91 VCU -3.5 3-2 (0-0) T34
92 Mid Tennessee -3.5 4-1 (0-0) T88
93 Umass -3.75 3-1 (0-0) T103
94 St Bonaventure -4 2-1 (0-0) T71
95 G Mason -4 3-2 (0-0) T103
T96 Iowa -4.5 3-2 (0-0) T34
T96 Stanford -4.5 3-2 (0-0) T34
98 Indiana -4.5 2-2 (0-0) T34
99 La Salle -4.5 3-2 (0-0) T88
100 Washington -4.5 2-2 (0-0) T88
101 Iowa State -4.75 3-2 (0-0) T71
T102 Dayton -5.25 2-2 (0-0) T71
T102 Oakland -5.25 2-2 (0-0) T88
104 Duquense -5.5 2-1 (0-0) T109
105 G Washington -6 2-2 (0-0) T103
106 Yale -6.25 2-3 (0-0) T88
107 Harvard -6.5 2-2 (0-0) T103
108 California -6.75 2-3 (0-0) T88
109 S Florida -7.25 2-2 (0-0) T109
110 Tulsa -7.75 2-3 (0-0) T71
111 E Carolina -8.25 2-2 (0-0) T109
112 Richmond -9.25 1-3 (0-0) T88
113 Fordham -9.5 1-3 (0-0) T113
114 Pittsburgh -10.25 1-4 (0-0) T88
115 Wake Forest -11 1-4 (0-0) T34



Conference Ranks


Rank Conf Avg
1 Big 12 0.375
2 Big East 0.225
3 SEC -0.0536
4 Big 10 -0.875
5 ACC -0.9
6 Pac 12 -1.125
7 Amer -1.9792
8 Other -2.3214
9 A10 -4.6071



Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Duke 4.75 5-0 (0-0) 1
2 North Carolina 2.5 3-0 (0-0) 13
3 Notre Dame 2.25 5-0 (0-0) 14
T4 Louisville 2 3-0 (0-0) T16
T4 Miami 2 3-0 (0-0) T16
6 Virginia 1.25 4-0 (0-0) T24
T7 Florida State 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T7 Syracuse 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
9 NC State -0.5 4-0 (0-0) T51
10 Georgia Tech -1 1-1 (0-0) 57
11 Clemson -1.5 4-1 (0-0) 64
12 Virginia Tech -2 4-1 (0-0) 73
13 Boston College -2 4-1 (0-0) 75
14 Pittsburgh -10.25 1-4 (0-0) 114
15 Wake Forest -11 1-4 (0-0) 115


Big 10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
T1 Minnesota 2.75 5-0 (0-0) T7
T1 Purdue 2.75 4-0 (0-0) T7
3 Michigan State 2.5 2-1 (0-0) 12
4 Maryland 1 5-0 (0-0) 27
5 Illinois 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
6 Penn State -0.5 5-1 (0-0) 50
7 Ohio State -0.5 4-0 (0-0) T51
8 Rutgers -1 5-0 (0-0) 60
9 Michigan -1.75 4-1 (0-0) 70
10 Northwestern -2.75 3-2 (0-0) 81
11 Wisconsin -2.75 2-3 (0-0) 83
12 Nebraska -3 3-1 (0-0) T87
13 Iowa -4.5 3-2 (0-0) T96
14 Indiana -4.5 2-2 (0-0) 98


SEC

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Texas AM 4.5 4-0 (0-0) 3
2 Florida 2.5 3-0 (0-0) 11
3 Kentucky 2 4-1 (0-0) 19
4 Alabama 1.25 4-0 (0-0) T24
T5 Tennessee 0 2-0 (0-0) T34
T5 Georgia 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T5 Arkansas 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T5 Mississippi St 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
9 LSU -1 3-1 (0-0) 59
T10 Ole Miss -1.5 3-1 (0-0) T65
T10 Auburn -1.5 3-1 (0-0) T65
12 Missouri -1.75 3-1 (0-0) 71
13 South Carolina -2.5 4-1 (0-0) 78
14 Vanderbilt -2.75 2-2 (0-0) 82


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Kansas 4.5 4-0 (0-0) 2
2 Baylor 2.25 5-0 (0-0) 15
3 Texas Tech 1.75 4-0 (0-0) 21
4 West Virginia 0.5 3-1 (0-0) 32
5 TCU 0.5 4-0 (0-0) 33
T6 Oklahoma 0 2-0 (0-0) T34
T6 Texas 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T6 Kansas State 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
9 OK State -1 4-1 (0-0) 58
10 Iowa State -4.75 3-2 (0-0) 101


Pac 12

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Arizona 3 3-0 (0-0) T4
2 USC 2.75 3-0 (0-0) T7
3 UCLA 0.75 4-1 (0-0) 29
4 Utah 0.75 4-0 (0-0) T30
T5 Oregon 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
T5 Arizona St 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
7 Colorado -0.5 5-0 (0-0) T51
8 Washington St -1.5 3-0 (0-0) T68
9 Oregon State -3 2-1 (0-0) 86
10 Stanford -4.5 3-2 (0-0) T96
11 Washington -4.5 2-2 (0-0) 100
12 California -6.75 2-3 (0-0) 108


American

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Wichita St 3 4-0 (0-0) 6
2 Cincinnati 2 5-0 (0-0) T16
3 Temple 1 3-0 (0-0) 28
T4 Uconn 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T4 UCF 0 3-0 (0-0) T34
T4 SMU 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
7 Tulane -1.5 4-0 (0-0) T68
8 Memphis -2 2-1 (0-0) 76
9 Houston -3 3-1 (0-0) 85
10 S Florida -7.25 2-2 (0-0) 109
11 Tulsa -7.75 2-3 (0-0) 110
12 E Carolina -8.25 2-2 (0-0) 111


Big East

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Villanova 3 3-0 (0-0) T4
2 Xavier 2.75 4-0 (0-0) T7
3 Seton Hall 1.75 4-0 (0-0) 20
4 Creighton 1.25 4-1 (0-0) 26
5 St Johns 0 4-0 (0-0) T34
6 Georgetown -0.5 3-0 (0-0) T51
7 Providence -0.75 3-1 (0-0) 55
8 Marquette -0.75 2-2 (0-0) 56
9 Butler -1.25 3-1 (0-0) 61
10 DePaul -3.25 1-2 (0-0) 90


A10

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
1 Rhode Island -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 67
2 Davidson -2 2-1 (0-0) 74
3 Saint Louis -2.5 3-1 (0-0) 80
4 St Josephs -3.25 2-1 (0-0) 89
5 VCU -3.5 3-2 (0-0) 91
6 Umass -3.75 3-1 (0-0) 93
7 St Bonaventure -4 2-1 (0-0) 94
8 G Mason -4 3-2 (0-0) 95
9 La Salle -4.5 3-2 (0-0) 99
10 Dayton -5.25 2-2 (0-0) T102
11 Duquense -5.5 2-1 (0-0) 104
12 G Washington -6 2-2 (0-0) 105
13 Richmond -9.25 1-3 (0-0) 112
14 Fordham -9.5 1-3 (0-0) 113


Other

Rank Team Score Record Conf NatlRank
T1 Gonzaga 1.5 3-0 (0-0) T22
T1 St Marys 1.5 4-0 (0-0) T22
3 Nevada 0.75 5-0 (0-0) T30
4 UT Arlington -1.25 2-1 (0-0) 62
5 Coll Charl -1.25 2-1 (0-0) 63
6 Vermont -1.75 3-1 (0-0) 72
7 Boise St -2.25 4-1 (0-0) 77
8 Old Dominion -2.5 4-1 (0-0) 79
9 BYU -2.75 2-1 (0-0) 84
10 San Diego St -3 3-1 (0-0) T87
11 Mid Tennessee -3.5 4-1 (0-0) 92
12 Oakland -5.25 2-2 (0-0) T102
13 Yale -6.25 2-3 (0-0) 106
14 Harvard -6.5 2-2 (0-0) 107