Data:

1. USDA surveillance data from 2006-2011 and from 2014-2017.

Data includes over 46 thousand samples from 88 unique bird species, and only includes the first sample from each band.

The species collected most in the dataset were Mallard (MALL: 16669), Wood Duck (WODU: 7369), Northern Pintail (NOPI: 4441), Canada goose (CAGO: 4403), Green-winged teal (AGWT: 1916); Blue-wingted teal (BWTE: 1910), American Black Duck (AMDU: 1783), and Gadwall (GADW: 1183). Only species with more than 100 samples collected are displayed.

The figure, below, shows AI prevalence based on pcr from a combined cloacal and oropharyngeal swab sample (other sample types were removed for consistency between years during data cleaning). Species with the highest AI prevalence were, Mallards (MALL), Cinnamon Teal (CITE), Blue-winged Teal (BWTE); Green-winged teal (AGWT); Ruddy Turnstone (RUTU), Northern Shoveler (NSHO), and Redhead (REDH)

2. Band Recovery data

-> band recovery defines movement patterns - spatial patterns in AVHS dataset below

3. Sequence Data

-> from Mia Torchetti (NVSL) -> don’t yet have but Sarah has started a request (?)


Objectives

1. Compare migration pattterns in wild waterfowl with and without active AIV to provide a list of priority watersheds for surveillance.

–> Build networks based on Band recovery movements and analyze them.

–> (If desired) Incorporate/ test for potential differences in recovery with infection and potential diagnostic test uncertainty.

–> *At last meeting, suggested looking at how well do the AIV patterns in teh 2011-2014 data match predictions in the current surveillance plan.

2. Evaluate the role of waterfowl migration in transmission.

–> Make a ‘transmission network’ to map out where transmission moved.

–> Test for drivers of transmission, including movement, environmental conditions, and bird densities.