Power Rankings - Week 9

Welcome

Over the past few years I have created a straightforward way to rank college football teams. Basically, I wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare resumes of different teams. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.

Basic Idea

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:

• Bin 3: Elite teams, the cream of the crop. Typically the top 6-8 teams in the country. (e.g. Alabama, Georgia)
• Bin 2: Teams that are “solidly ranked.” Not quite elite, but clearly top 25. (e.g. Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, Auburn)
• Bin 1: Teams that are “borderline ranked.” You certainly can make a case they are a top 25 team, but certainly can make the case they are not. (e.g. Michigan, Memphis, Arizona)
• Bin 0: Teams that are “solidly unranked.” Decent teams that have a pulse, but are not considered close to being top 25. (e.g. Kansas State, Arizona State, Wake Forest)
• Bin -1: Starting to get a little worse here. Slightly above-average non-Power 5 teams and below average Power-5 teams are often found here. (e.g. Arkansas, Colorado State, SMU)
• Bin -2: Bad/average non-Power 5 teams, and REALLY bad Power 5 teams. (e.g. Utah State, UL Lafayette, Kansas)
• Bin -3: Really really bad. There are typically about 10 of these. (e.g. Charlotte, Texas State)

If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc. For example, Clemson should not be considered in bin 3 after their loss this week, but they seem to be close enough where a 2.5 bin is warranted.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 22 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.

Week 9: A Discussion on Head-to-Head, and USC

Later today, the playoff committee will release its first top 25 of the season. The one factor I am most curious about is how the committee handles head-to-head results when determining the ranking. Specifically, the trio of Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Penn State intrigues me. If head-to-head is an important factor to the committee, then it would make sense to have OU > OSU > PSU, but the conventional wisdom currently has OSU ahead of Oklahoma. We shall see. I have my guess as to what the committee will do later on.

In my rankings, head-to-head results are not taken into account at all. As you’ll see, my system currently spits out PSU and OU both ahead of Ohio State, a seemingly odd result given the Buckeyes’ big win this weekend. The main reason for this is that OSU’s resume is very shallow after that big PSU win. Their second best win is… Indiana? Army? Nebraska? Penn State does not have an elite win, but has a nice collection of wins including the beatdown over Michigan, at Iowa, at Northwestern, Indiana, and Pitt. Oklahoma has the elite win at OSU, as well as solid wins over Texas, Texas Tech, and at Kansas State. Ohio State is a sexy team right now, but other than the PSU win, they don’t have much on the resume. When looking at my rankings, keep in mind that head-to-head matchups are irrelevant, for better or for worse.

A puzzling team in my rankings this week is USC, who comes in as the top two-loss team at a very high 11th place. USC is an interesting team this year, since they came into the season with huge expectations and have generally disappointed. Still, they have a pretty decent collection of victories that is going overlooked right now. The win versus Stanford looks nice, and is complemented by wins versus Texas, Utah, Cal, and Arizona State. Couple that with the fact that one of their losses is to the top-5 Fighting Irish, and you have the best two-loss body of work in the country (by a pretty large margin), at least according to how my system values things.

In this week’s installment of “Why the heck is Bama that low??”, the Crimson Tide find themslves 8th in my rankings. 8th?? Alabama currently has played a total of zero teams that have an AP Poll vote, and only have one win versus a power 5 team with a winning record (Clemson, on the other hadn, has six). Bluntly put, Alabama’s resume is a lot closer to Wisconsin’s than most people think. Honestly, even Central Florida’s collection of wins (at ranked Memphis by 28, at Navy, and at Maryland) are better than Alabama’s, in terms of opponent quality.

Playoff Talk: Top 25 Prediction

In honor of the committee releasing its first top 25 of the season, I thought I’d guess how the rankings will look. This is how I guess the committee will do things, not how I personally think they should be. And yes, I definitely will be wrong.

• 1. Georgia I think the Bulldogs get the nod over Alabama for #1. In fact, I would be surprised if they don’t get it. UGA’s win at Notre Dame is light years better than anything Alabama has done on the year, and I think the committee will reward that.
  
  
• 2. Alabama If Bama gets the number 1 spot, then the committee uses the eye test more than I orginally thought. The eye test would be the only logical reason to put Alabama in the top spot. Of course, I wouldn’t be completely against the move, since the Tide have certainly looked great this year against inferior teams.
  
  
• 3. Notre Dame I predict the Irish come in at #3. They have beaten three AP top 25 teams (NC State, USC, and Michigan State) and have a very excuseable loss (Georgia).
  
  
• 4. Oklahoma Here is where things get incredibly messy. I am not very comfortable with this pick at all, but I think the committee will make a point to emphasize head-to-head results this week. I have a hunch that they will want to rank OSU high after the big Penn State win, but will ultimately put Oklahoma ahead because of the head-to-head result. Head-to-head results should not always be used (for example, OSU would be way ahead of Oklahoma if OU had two losses), but I think it can used as a tiebreaker of sorts when two teams have similar resumes, which seems to be the case here. Especially when the road team won the matchup. I haven’t seen anyone else predicting Oklahoma 4th, so I will probably be wrong about this pick… but I just can’t see an argument other then pure “eye test” for Ohio State being ahead.
  
  
• 5. Ohio State Depite being a little low at #5, I have a feeling the committee will like Ohio State moving forward, if they keep winning of course.
  
  
• 6. Clemson The Tigers are an incredibly difficult team to peg. On one hand, they have a deep body of work, beating VT, Auburn, Louisville, Wake, GT, and Boston College. However, they are the only top 10 team to have a loss to an unranked team (Syracuse), and they are lacking an “elite” win like OU over OSU, OSU over PSU, or UGA over ND. I predict the committee is a little lukewarm on them and puts them 6th. The Syracuse loss hurts.
  
  
• 7. Penn State College football can be brutal. The Nittany Lions lose on the road against an elite foe by one point after leading the entire time, and as a result may fall clean out of the top 5. Their playoff hopes are in trouble, as it looks very unlikely that they will be able to win the conference.
  
  
• 8. Miami Teams 3-11 or so are incredibly difficult to predict. I am guessing that the “shaky undefeated” teams - Miami and Wisconsin - are ranked relatively low this week. Miami has had their troubles this season, but their collection of wins are much better than Wisconsin’s. GT, FSU, Syracuse, and Toledo don’t move the needle too much, but they are much better than the teams Wisconsin has beaten. The Canes will be on the move - one way or the other- after playing VT and ND the next two weeks.
  
  
• 9. TCU The Frogs certainly fall out of the top tier after losing to Iowa State, but their resume is still sneaky-good. Their main accomplishment is a win at OK State, ensuring they stay ahead of the Cowboys (one would think).
  
  
• 10. Wisconsin I predict the Badgers (and Washington later on) is punished by the committee. Wisconsin has not played anybody, with their best win being Northwestern. They also have been lacking style points in their wins, which doesn’t help. Beating Illinois 24-10 is not going to cut it.
  
  
• 11. Oklahoma State We’ll see what the Cowboys can do against OU this weekend. They need an elite win like that to get themselves into the national conversation. They are a dangerous lurking team.
  
  
• 12. Central Florida Surprise! I think the committee will view UCF’s undefeated season favorably. The Knights have three nice road wins (Memphis, Navy, and Maryland) and have blown everyone else out. The teams immediately behind them will have their opportunities to jump UCF, but for now I think this high spot is well-deserved.
  
  
• 13. Virginia Tech The Hokies have looked good in their non-Clemson games this season, but have yet to prove themselves in a big win. Their chance comes this weekend at Miami. Win that game, and VT could jump into the top 10.
  
  
• 14. Iowa State A very interesting team for the committee. The Cyclones have the best pair of wins of anyone in the country - at Oklahoma and versus TCU. I think they will be rewarded handsomely and will be the highest two-loss team. However, ISU has some skeletons in its closet - home losses to Iowa and Texas haven’t held up well.
  
  
• 15. Washington I think the Huskies will be ranked lower by the committee than by the AP Poll. They played no one out of conference and have little wins of consequence in the Pac 12. Sure, teams like Virginia Tech and OK State haven’t had great wins either, but at least those teams lost to top 10 competition - Washington’s loss was at home to unranked Arizona State. Look for a low number here.
  
  
• 16. Auburn Here comes the parade of two-loss teams. Auburn is a collapse against LSU away from being in the thick of everything. They will at least get the opportunity to play spoiler this season, as they have Alabama and Georgia in upcoming weeks.
  
  
• 17. USC As I mentioned above, the Trojans actually have a nice collection of wins. The head-to-head win over Stanford helps here too.
  
  
• 18. Stanford The Cardinal looked horrible in a close win versus Oregon State last Thursday, but I say the committee gives them a bit of a pass because Bryce Love wasn’t playing. Love is awesome, but they certainly rely on him.
  
  
• 19. Mississippi State The Bulldogs actually have a decent resume, including their 37-7 beatdown of LSU. I would be surprised if they are not ahead of LSU because of that game.
  
  
• 20. NC State The Wolfpack are a classic beneficiary of “good timing” wins. They received a lot of credit for beating FSU and Louisville before those teams collapsed. Now people instinctively think they have great wins, when in fact they just beat mediocre teams that were ranked high at the time.
  
  
• 21. LSU In case people forgot, LSU lost to Troy… sure, the Tigers beat Auburn, but the committee won’t forget Troy.
  
  
• 22. Memphis Riley Ferguson and the Tigers have a solid resume worthy of a borderline ranked spot.
  
  
• 23. Michigan State The Spartans should be ahead of Michigan due to the head-to-head matchup, but the loss to Northwestern and a general lack of style points will have them near the top-25 cutoff line.
  
  
• 24. Arizona The Wildcats are in a similar position to Iowa State - no one wants to play them right now. Khalil Tate is a beast, but they also have skeletons in their closet - home losses to Houston and Utah - that the committee can’t ignore.
  
  
• 25. Washington State I have the Cougars slipping in over Michigan. Washington State versus Michigan is actually an interesting case study for the committee - WSU has the better win (over USC), but they have “worse” losses (Cal by 34 and Arizona by 21). I am guessing the committee rewards the big win and leans towards Washington State, but we shall see. Michigan doesn’t have any great wins.

Here are the Week 9 rankings, calculated using my system. Obviously, this is not what I think the committee will do (Bama will be higher than 8th!):

Rank	Team	Score	Record	Conf	Prev Rank	Rem Sched Rank
1	Georgia	8	8-0	(5-0)	1	20
2	Notre Dame	8	7-1	(0-0)	4	2
3	Clemson	7.25	7-1	(5-1)	5	60
T4	Penn State	6	7-1	(4-1)	2	60
T4	Oklahoma	6	7-1	(4-1)	11	23
6	Miami	5.25	7-0	(5-0)	7	6
7	Ohio State	5.25	7-1	(5-0)	14	46
8	Alabama	4.75	8-0	(5-0)	6	30
9	UCF	4.75	6-0	(4-0)	9	74
10	TCU	4.75	7-1	(4-1)	3	30
11	USC	4.75	7-2	(5-1)	15	37
12	Wisconsin	4	8-0	(5-0)	10	46
13	OK State	4	7-1	(4-1)	12	20
14	Virginia Tech	3.25	7-1	(3-1)	13	23
15	Auburn	3	6-2	(4-1)	19	6
16	Mississippi St	3	6-2	(3-2)	24	55
17	Washington	2.75	7-1	(4-1)	20	14
18	Stanford	2.75	6-2	(5-1)	21	1
19	Iowa State	2.5	6-2	(4-1)	27	37
20	NC State	2	6-2	(4-0)	T16	37
21	Michigan State	2	6-2	(4-1)	8	14
22	Memphis	1.75	7-1	(4-1)	23	82
23	Washington St	1.75	7-2	(4-2)	T16	6
24	Michigan	0.25	6-2	(3-2)	22	6
25	LSU	0	6-2	(3-1)	28	30
26	Arizona	0	6-2	(4-1)	45	42
27	Toledo	-0.5	7-1	(4-0)	32	98
28	Iowa	-0.5	5-3	(2-3)	30	6
29	S Florida	-1	7-1	(4-1)	18	42
30	South Carolina	-1	6-2	(4-2)	31	23
31	West Virginia	-1	5-3	(3-2)	25	2
32	Texas	-1	4-4	(3-2)	50	46
33	Northwestern	-1.25	5-3	(3-2)	T39	73
34	Navy	-1.5	5-2	(3-2)	T37	60
35	Georgia Tech	-1.5	4-3	(3-2)	29	2
36	Texas AM	-2	5-3	(3-2)	26	42
37	UCLA	-2	4-4	(2-3)	T39	23
T38	Kentucky	-2.25	6-2	(3-2)	T52	30
T38	Boise State	-2.25	6-2	(4-0)	T37	93
T40	Texas Tech	-2.25	4-4	(1-4)	T41	37
T40	Arizona St	-2.25	4-4	(3-2)	33	51
42	Wake Forest	-2.5	5-3	(2-3)	46	12
43	Boston College	-2.5	5-4	(3-3)	T47	51
44	Syracuse	-2.75	4-4	(2-2)	T47	51
45	San Diego St	-3	7-2	(3-2)	T52	102
46	Maryland	-3	4-4	(2-3)	57	14
47	SMU	-3	6-2	(3-1)	51	30
48	Houston	-3.25	5-3	(3-2)	75	51
49	Utah	-3.25	4-4	(1-4)	56	14
50	Florida	-3.75	3-4	(3-3)	49	71
T51	Troy	-3.75	6-2	(3-1)	60	125
T51	Army	-3.75	6-2	(0-0)	63	74
T53	Louisville	-4.25	5-4	(2-4)	T41	46
T53	Kansas State	-4.25	4-4	(2-3)	61	6
55	Oregon	-4.5	5-4	(2-4)	64	30
56	N Illinois	-4.5	6-2	(4-0)	65	88
57	California	-4.75	4-5	(1-5)	58	42
58	Florida State	-4.75	2-5	(2-4)	34	55
59	Colorado	-5	5-4	(2-4)	T72	23
60	Pittsburgh	-5	4-5	(2-3)	62	14
T61	Marshall	-5	6-2	(3-1)	35	88
T61	FIU	-5	5-2	(3-1)	70	93
63	Fresno St	-5	5-3	(4-1)	36	84
64	Nebraska	-5.25	4-4	(3-2)	T72	23
65	Indiana	-5.25	3-5	(0-5)	43	60
66	Colorado St	-5.25	6-3	(4-1)	44	74
67	Virginia	-5.5	5-3	(2-2)	55	2
68	Tennessee	-5.75	3-5	(0-5)	59	66
69	Arkansas St	-5.75	5-2	(4-0)	74	110
70	W Michigan	-5.75	5-3	(3-1)	78	88
71	App State	-6	5-3	(4-0)	54	120
72	FAU	-6.25	5-3	(4-0)	79	110
73	Arkansas	-6.25	3-5	(1-4)	76	60
74	Vanderbilt	-6.5	3-5	(0-5)	66	71
75	Wyoming	-6.5	5-3	(3-1)	83	98
76	Southern Miss	-6.5	6-2	(4-1)	77	110
77	Ohio	-6.75	6-2	(3-1)	T80	84
78	Duke	-7	4-5	(1-5)	71	55
79	UTSA	-7	5-2	(2-2)	T80	98
80	Akron	-7	5-4	(4-1)	87	88
81	Ole Miss	-7.25	3-5	(1-4)	68	55
82	Minnesota	-7.5	4-4	(1-4)	69	14
83	Purdue	-7.75	3-5	(1-4)	67	68
84	Missouri	-8.25	3-5	(0-4)	90	68
85	Air Force	-8.5	4-4	(3-2)	86	74
86	Rutgers	-8.5	3-5	(2-3)	85	20
87	N Texas	-8.5	5-3	(4-1)	T88	120
88	Tulane	-8.75	3-5	(1-3)	84	84
89	Georgia St	-9	4-3	(3-1)	T88	125
90	W Kentucky	-9.5	5-3	(3-2)	82	84
91	UAB	-10.25	5-3	(3-2)	95	110
92	C Michigan	-10.5	4-4	(2-2)	T93	102
93	Louisiana Tech	-10.75	4-4	(2-2)	T97	102
94	Temple	-11	3-5	(1-3)	96	60
95	Utah State	-12	4-5	(2-3)	91	88
96	Oregon State	-12.5	1-7	(0-5)	101	37
97	Cincinnati	-12.75	2-6	(0-4)	102	110
98	UL Lafayette	-13	3-4	(2-2)	105	125
T99	S Alabama	-13	3-5	(2-2)	T93	118
T99	N Mexico St	-13	3-5	(1-3)	92	120
101	Illinois	-13	2-6	(0-5)	103	30
102	North Carolina	-13.75	1-8	(0-6)	106	66
T103	UNLV	-13.75	3-5	(2-3)	112	120
T103	Miami OH	-13.75	3-5	(2-2)	109	102
T105	Mid Tennessee	-14	3-5	(1-3)	115	129
T105	UL Monroe	-14	3-5	(3-3)	T97	55
T107	Uconn	-14.25	3-5	(2-4)	T97	68
T107	New Mexico	-14.25	3-5	(1-4)	T97	74
109	Hawaii	-14.25	3-5	(1-4)	104	102
110	E Michigan	-14.75	2-6	(0-4)	107	120
111	E Carolina	-15	2-6	(1-3)	111	80
112	BYU	-15.25	2-7	(0-0)	118	110
113	Kent State	-15.25	2-6	(1-3)	116	102
114	Tulsa	-15.5	2-7	(1-4)	114	46
115	Idaho	-16	3-5	(2-3)	119	110
116	Buffalo	-16	3-6	(1-4)	113	93
117	Baylor	-16.25	0-8	(0-5)	108	23
118	Kansas	-16.25	1-7	(0-5)	110	12
119	Old Dominion	-17.75	2-6	(0-4)	117	125
120	Nevada	-18	1-7	(1-3)	121	82
121	Umass	-18.5	2-6	(0-0)	124	74
122	Ball State	-18.75	2-6	(0-4)	120	102
123	Rice	-19.25	1-7	(1-3)	122	118
124	Texas St	-19.5	2-6	(1-3)	126	93
125	Bowling Green	-20.75	1-7	(1-3)	128	93
126	GA Southern	-21	0-7	(0-4)	123	130
127	Charlotte	-22.25	1-7	(1-3)	130	102
128	UTEP	-22.5	0-8	(0-4)	129	110
129	Co Carolina	-23.5	1-7	(0-5)	127	98
130	San Jose St	-23.5	1-8	(0-4)	125	80

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Conference Ranks

Rank	Conf	Avg
1	SEC	-1.7321
2	Pac 12	-1.8542
3	ACC	-2.2679
4	Big 12	-2.375
5	Big 10	-2.4643
6	Amer	-6.625
7	Ind	-7.375
8	MW	-10.5208
9	MAC	-11.1875
10	CUSA	-11.75
11	S Belt	-13.125

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Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Clemson	7.25	7-1	(5-1)	13	3
2	Miami	5.25	7-0	(5-0)	3	6
3	Virginia Tech	3.25	7-1	(3-1)	6	14
4	NC State	2	6-2	(4-0)	7	20
5	Georgia Tech	-1.5	4-3	(3-2)	1	35
6	Wake Forest	-2.5	5-3	(2-3)	4	42
7	Boston College	-2.5	5-4	(3-3)	9	43
8	Syracuse	-2.75	4-4	(2-2)	9	44
9	Louisville	-4.25	5-4	(2-4)	8	T53
10	Florida State	-4.75	2-5	(2-4)	11	58
11	Pittsburgh	-5	4-5	(2-3)	5	60
12	Virginia	-5.5	5-3	(2-2)	1	67
13	Duke	-7	4-5	(1-5)	11	78
14	North Carolina	-13.75	1-8	(0-6)	14	102

Big 10

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Penn State	6	7-1	(4-1)	11	T4
2	Ohio State	5.25	7-1	(5-0)	9	7
3	Wisconsin	4	8-0	(5-0)	9	12
4	Michigan State	2	6-2	(4-1)	3	21
5	Michigan	0.25	6-2	(3-2)	1	24
6	Iowa	-0.5	5-3	(2-3)	1	28
7	Northwestern	-1.25	5-3	(3-2)	14	33
8	Maryland	-3	4-4	(2-3)	3	46
9	Nebraska	-5.25	4-4	(3-2)	7	64
10	Indiana	-5.25	3-5	(0-5)	11	65
11	Minnesota	-7.5	4-4	(1-4)	3	82
12	Purdue	-7.75	3-5	(1-4)	13	83
13	Rutgers	-8.5	3-5	(2-3)	6	86
14	Illinois	-13	2-6	(0-5)	8	101

SEC

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Georgia	8	8-0	(5-0)	2	1
2	Alabama	4.75	8-0	(5-0)	4	8
3	Auburn	3	6-2	(4-1)	1	15
4	Mississippi St	3	6-2	(3-2)	8	16
5	LSU	0	6-2	(3-1)	4	25
6	South Carolina	-1	6-2	(4-2)	3	30
7	Texas AM	-2	5-3	(3-2)	7	36
8	Kentucky	-2.25	6-2	(3-2)	4	T38
9	Florida	-3.75	3-4	(3-3)	13	50
10	Tennessee	-5.75	3-5	(0-5)	11	68
11	Arkansas	-6.25	3-5	(1-4)	10	73
12	Vanderbilt	-6.5	3-5	(0-5)	13	74
13	Ole Miss	-7.25	3-5	(1-4)	8	81
14	Missouri	-8.25	3-5	(0-4)	12	84

Big 12

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Oklahoma	6	7-1	(4-1)	5	T4
2	TCU	4.75	7-1	(4-1)	7	10
3	OK State	4	7-1	(4-1)	4	13
4	Iowa State	2.5	6-2	(4-1)	8	19
5	West Virginia	-1	5-3	(3-2)	1	31
6	Texas	-1	4-4	(3-2)	10	32
7	Texas Tech	-2.25	4-4	(1-4)	8	T40
8	Kansas State	-4.25	4-4	(2-3)	2	T53
9	Baylor	-16.25	0-8	(0-5)	5	117
10	Kansas	-16.25	1-7	(0-5)	3	118

Pac 12

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	USC	4.75	7-2	(5-1)	8	11
2	Washington	2.75	7-1	(4-1)	3	17
3	Stanford	2.75	6-2	(5-1)	1	18
4	Washington St	1.75	7-2	(4-2)	2	23
5	Arizona	0	6-2	(4-1)	10	26
6	UCLA	-2	4-4	(2-3)	5	37
7	Arizona St	-2.25	4-4	(3-2)	12	T40
8	Utah	-3.25	4-4	(1-4)	3	49
9	Oregon	-4.5	5-4	(2-4)	7	55
10	California	-4.75	4-5	(1-5)	10	57
11	Colorado	-5	5-4	(2-4)	5	59
12	Oregon State	-12.5	1-7	(0-5)	8	96

American

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	UCF	4.75	6-0	(4-0)	8	9
2	Memphis	1.75	7-1	(4-1)	10	22
3	S Florida	-1	7-1	(4-1)	2	29
4	Navy	-1.5	5-2	(3-2)	5	34
5	SMU	-3	6-2	(3-1)	1	47
6	Houston	-3.25	5-3	(3-2)	4	48
7	Tulane	-8.75	3-5	(1-3)	11	88
8	Temple	-11	3-5	(1-3)	5	94
9	Cincinnati	-12.75	2-6	(0-4)	12	97
10	Uconn	-14.25	3-5	(2-4)	7	T107
11	E Carolina	-15	2-6	(1-3)	9	111
12	Tulsa	-15.5	2-7	(1-4)	3	114

Mountain West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Boise State	-2.25	6-2	(4-0)	8	T38
2	San Diego St	-3	7-2	(3-2)	10	45
3	Fresno St	-5	5-3	(4-1)	6	63
4	Colorado St	-5.25	6-3	(4-1)	1	66
5	Wyoming	-6.5	5-3	(3-1)	9	75
6	Air Force	-8.5	4-4	(3-2)	1	85
7	Utah State	-12	4-5	(2-3)	7	95
8	UNLV	-13.75	3-5	(2-3)	12	T103
9	New Mexico	-14.25	3-5	(1-4)	1	T107
10	Hawaii	-14.25	3-5	(1-4)	10	109
11	Nevada	-18	1-7	(1-3)	5	120
12	San Jose St	-23.5	1-8	(0-4)	4	130

MAC

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Toledo	-0.5	7-1	(4-0)	7	27
2	N Illinois	-4.5	6-2	(4-0)	2	56
3	W Michigan	-5.75	5-3	(3-1)	2	70
4	Ohio	-6.75	6-2	(3-1)	1	77
5	Akron	-7	5-4	(4-1)	2	80
6	C Michigan	-10.5	4-4	(2-2)	8	92
7	Miami OH	-13.75	3-5	(2-2)	8	T103
8	E Michigan	-14.75	2-6	(0-4)	12	110
9	Kent State	-15.25	2-6	(1-3)	8	113
10	Buffalo	-16	3-6	(1-4)	5	116
11	Ball State	-18.75	2-6	(0-4)	8	122
12	Bowling Green	-20.75	1-7	(1-3)	5	125

CUSA

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
T1	Marshall	-5	6-2	(3-1)	2	T61
T1	FIU	-5	5-2	(3-1)	3	T61
3	FAU	-6.25	5-3	(4-0)	7	72
4	Southern Miss	-6.5	6-2	(4-1)	7	76
5	UTSA	-7	5-2	(2-2)	4	79
6	N Texas	-8.5	5-3	(4-1)	12	87
7	W Kentucky	-9.5	5-3	(3-2)	1	90
8	UAB	-10.25	5-3	(3-2)	7	91
9	Louisiana Tech	-10.75	4-4	(2-2)	5	93
10	Mid Tennessee	-14	3-5	(1-3)	14	T105
11	Old Dominion	-17.75	2-6	(0-4)	13	119
12	Rice	-19.25	1-7	(1-3)	11	123
13	Charlotte	-22.25	1-7	(1-3)	5	127
14	UTEP	-22.5	0-8	(0-4)	7	128

Sun Belt

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Troy	-3.75	6-2	(3-1)	9	T51
2	Arkansas St	-5.75	5-2	(4-0)	4	69
3	App State	-6	5-3	(4-0)	7	71
4	Georgia St	-9	4-3	(3-1)	9	89
5	UL Lafayette	-13	3-4	(2-2)	9	98
T6	S Alabama	-13	3-5	(2-2)	6	T99
T6	N Mexico St	-13	3-5	(1-3)	7	T99
8	UL Monroe	-14	3-5	(3-3)	1	T105
9	Idaho	-16	3-5	(2-3)	4	115
10	Texas St	-19.5	2-6	(1-3)	2	124
11	GA Southern	-21	0-7	(0-4)	12	126
12	Co Carolina	-23.5	1-7	(0-5)	3	129

Independents

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Notre Dame	8	7-1	(0-0)	1	2
2	Army	-3.75	6-2	(0-0)	2	T51
3	BYU	-15.25	2-7	(0-0)	4	112
4	Umass	-18.5	2-6	(0-0)	2	121

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Division Ranks

For those who are even more curious, here are the same analyses but by division instead of conference. I know the plot is a little busy, but it gives a decent idea of how the divisions fall.

Rank	Div	Avg
1	Big 10 E	-0.4643
2	SEC W	-0.6786
3	ACC Atl	-1.0714
4	Pac 12 S	-1.2917
5	Big 12	-2.375
6	Pac 12 N	-2.4167
7	SEC E	-2.7857
8	ACC Coast	-3.4643
9	Big 10 W	-4.4643
10	Amer W	-5.0417
11	Ind	-7.375
12	MW Moun	-8.125
13	Amer E	-8.2083
14	MAC W	-9.125
15	CUSA E	-11.3929
16	CUSA W	-12.1071
17	MW West	-12.9167
18	S Belt	-13.125
19	MAC E	-13.25

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Next are the rankings within every division, as well as each team’s national ranking (now with plots!):

ACC Coastal

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Miami	5.25	7-0	(5-0)	3	6
2	Virginia Tech	3.25	7-1	(3-1)	5	14
3	Georgia Tech	-1.5	4-3	(3-2)	1	35
4	Pittsburgh	-5	4-5	(2-3)	4	60
5	Virginia	-5.5	5-3	(2-2)	1	67
6	Duke	-7	4-5	(1-5)	6	78
7	North Carolina	-13.75	1-8	(0-6)	7	102

ACC Atlantic

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Clemson	7.25	7-1	(5-1)	7	3
2	NC State	2	6-2	(4-0)	2	20
3	Wake Forest	-2.5	5-3	(2-3)	1	42
4	Boston College	-2.5	5-4	(3-3)	4	43
5	Syracuse	-2.75	4-4	(2-2)	4	44
6	Louisville	-4.25	5-4	(2-4)	3	T53
7	Florida State	-4.75	2-5	(2-4)	6	58

SEC East

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Georgia	8	8-0	(5-0)	1	1
2	South Carolina	-1	6-2	(4-2)	2	30
3	Kentucky	-2.25	6-2	(3-2)	3	T38
4	Florida	-3.75	3-4	(3-3)	6	50
5	Tennessee	-5.75	3-5	(0-5)	4	68
6	Vanderbilt	-6.5	3-5	(0-5)	6	74
7	Missouri	-8.25	3-5	(0-4)	5	84

SEC West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Alabama	4.75	8-0	(5-0)	2	8
2	Auburn	3	6-2	(4-1)	1	15
3	Mississippi St	3	6-2	(3-2)	5	16
4	LSU	0	6-2	(3-1)	2	25
5	Texas AM	-2	5-3	(3-2)	4	36
6	Arkansas	-6.25	3-5	(1-4)	7	73
7	Ole Miss	-7.25	3-5	(1-4)	5	81

Big 10 East

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Penn State	6	7-1	(4-1)	6	T4
2	Ohio State	5.25	7-1	(5-0)	5	7
3	Michigan State	2	6-2	(4-1)	2	21
4	Michigan	0.25	6-2	(3-2)	1	24
5	Maryland	-3	4-4	(2-3)	2	46
6	Indiana	-5.25	3-5	(0-5)	6	65
7	Rutgers	-8.5	3-5	(2-3)	4	86

Big 10 West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Wisconsin	4	8-0	(5-0)	5	12
2	Iowa	-0.5	5-3	(2-3)	1	28
3	Northwestern	-1.25	5-3	(3-2)	7	33
4	Nebraska	-5.25	4-4	(3-2)	3	64
5	Minnesota	-7.5	4-4	(1-4)	2	82
6	Purdue	-7.75	3-5	(1-4)	6	83
7	Illinois	-13	2-6	(0-5)	4	101

Big 12

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Oklahoma	6	7-1	(4-1)	5	T4
2	TCU	4.75	7-1	(4-1)	7	10
3	OK State	4	7-1	(4-1)	4	13
4	Iowa State	2.5	6-2	(4-1)	8	19
5	West Virginia	-1	5-3	(3-2)	1	31
6	Texas	-1	4-4	(3-2)	10	32
7	Texas Tech	-2.25	4-4	(1-4)	8	T40
8	Kansas State	-4.25	4-4	(2-3)	2	T53
9	Baylor	-16.25	0-8	(0-5)	5	117
10	Kansas	-16.25	1-7	(0-5)	3	118

Pac 12 North

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Washington	2.75	7-1	(4-1)	3	17
2	Stanford	2.75	6-2	(5-1)	1	18
3	Washington St	1.75	7-2	(4-2)	2	23
4	Oregon	-4.5	5-4	(2-4)	4	55
5	California	-4.75	4-5	(1-5)	6	57
6	Oregon State	-12.5	1-7	(0-5)	5	96

Pac 12 South

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	USC	4.75	7-2	(5-1)	4	11
2	Arizona	0	6-2	(4-1)	5	26
3	UCLA	-2	4-4	(2-3)	2	37
4	Arizona St	-2.25	4-4	(3-2)	6	T40
5	Utah	-3.25	4-4	(1-4)	1	49
6	Colorado	-5	5-4	(2-4)	2	59

American East

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	UCF	4.75	6-0	(4-0)	4	9
2	S Florida	-1	7-1	(4-1)	1	29
3	Temple	-11	3-5	(1-3)	2	94
4	Cincinnati	-12.75	2-6	(0-4)	6	97
5	Uconn	-14.25	3-5	(2-4)	3	T107
6	E Carolina	-15	2-6	(1-3)	5	111

American West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Memphis	1.75	7-1	(4-1)	5	22
2	Navy	-1.5	5-2	(3-2)	4	34
3	SMU	-3	6-2	(3-1)	1	47
4	Houston	-3.25	5-3	(3-2)	3	48
5	Tulane	-8.75	3-5	(1-3)	6	88
6	Tulsa	-15.5	2-7	(1-4)	2	114

MW Mountain

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Boise State	-2.25	6-2	(4-0)	5	T38
2	Colorado St	-5.25	6-3	(4-1)	1	66
3	Wyoming	-6.5	5-3	(3-1)	6	75
4	Air Force	-8.5	4-4	(3-2)	1	85
5	Utah State	-12	4-5	(2-3)	4	95
6	New Mexico	-14.25	3-5	(1-4)	1	T107

MW West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	San Diego St	-3	7-2	(3-2)	4	45
2	Fresno St	-5	5-3	(4-1)	3	63
3	UNLV	-13.75	3-5	(2-3)	6	T103
4	Hawaii	-14.25	3-5	(1-4)	4	109
5	Nevada	-18	1-7	(1-3)	2	120
6	San Jose St	-23.5	1-8	(0-4)	1	130

MAC East

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Ohio	-6.75	6-2	(3-1)	1	77
2	Akron	-7	5-4	(4-1)	2	80
3	Miami OH	-13.75	3-5	(2-2)	5	T103
4	Kent State	-15.25	2-6	(1-3)	5	113
5	Buffalo	-16	3-6	(1-4)	3	116
6	Bowling Green	-20.75	1-7	(1-3)	3	125

MAC West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Toledo	-0.5	7-1	(4-0)	3	27
2	N Illinois	-4.5	6-2	(4-0)	1	56
3	W Michigan	-5.75	5-3	(3-1)	1	70
4	C Michigan	-10.5	4-4	(2-2)	4	92
5	E Michigan	-14.75	2-6	(0-4)	6	110
6	Ball State	-18.75	2-6	(0-4)	4	122

C-USA East

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
T1	Marshall	-5	6-2	(3-1)	2	T61
T1	FIU	-5	5-2	(3-1)	3	T61
3	FAU	-6.25	5-3	(4-0)	5	72
4	W Kentucky	-9.5	5-3	(3-2)	1	90
5	Mid Tennessee	-14	3-5	(1-3)	7	T105
6	Old Dominion	-17.75	2-6	(0-4)	6	119
7	Charlotte	-22.25	1-7	(1-3)	4	127

C-USA West

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Southern Miss	-6.5	6-2	(4-1)	3	76
2	UTSA	-7	5-2	(2-2)	1	79
3	N Texas	-8.5	5-3	(4-1)	7	87
4	UAB	-10.25	5-3	(3-2)	3	91
5	Louisiana Tech	-10.75	4-4	(2-2)	2	93
6	Rice	-19.25	1-7	(1-3)	6	123
7	UTEP	-22.5	0-8	(0-4)	3	128

Sun Belt

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Troy	-3.75	6-2	(3-1)	9	T51
2	Arkansas St	-5.75	5-2	(4-0)	4	69
3	App State	-6	5-3	(4-0)	7	71
4	Georgia St	-9	4-3	(3-1)	9	89
5	UL Lafayette	-13	3-4	(2-2)	9	98
T6	S Alabama	-13	3-5	(2-2)	6	T99
T6	N Mexico St	-13	3-5	(1-3)	7	T99
8	UL Monroe	-14	3-5	(3-3)	1	T105
9	Idaho	-16	3-5	(2-3)	4	115
10	Texas St	-19.5	2-6	(1-3)	2	124
11	GA Southern	-21	0-7	(0-4)	12	126
12	Co Carolina	-23.5	1-7	(0-5)	3	129

Independents

Rank	Team	Score	Record	(Conf)	Rem Sched Rank	NatlRank
1	Notre Dame	8	7-1	(0-0)	1	2
2	Army	-3.75	6-2	(0-0)	2	T51
3	BYU	-15.25	2-7	(0-0)	4	112
4	Umass	-18.5	2-6	(0-0)	2	121