library(stats)
library(readxl)
veh <- read_excel("D:/PG Business Analytics/AS/Regression/data_test.xlsx")head(veh)Now, performing Setpwise Linear Regression to get best fit
step(lm(Sales ~ Hist_Sales+PassengerCars+OECD+PMI+Confidence+PLR+IIP_perc+IIP+Mahindra_sales+GDP_Agri+GDP_Total+Production+SCO_Prodn+MCY_Prodn+MPD_Prodn+JanD+FebD+MarD+AprD+MayD+JunD+JulD+AugD+SepD+OctD+NovD+Petrol_Delhi_prices+Time_Dummy+Dummy2008,
data = veh))Start: AIC=2177.42
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + PassengerCars + OECD + PMI + Confidence +
PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + Mahindra_sales + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total +
Production + SCO_Prodn + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD +
MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + AugD + SepD + OctD + NovD +
Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy + Dummy2008
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- Dummy2008 1 931162 6.0138e+10 2175.4
- Mahindra_sales 1 3960937 6.0141e+10 2175.4
- AugD 1 8213194 6.0146e+10 2175.4
- SCO_Prodn 1 39255692 6.0177e+10 2175.5
- MCY_Prodn 1 99882578 6.0237e+10 2175.6
- Confidence 1 127444100 6.0265e+10 2175.7
- PassengerCars 1 156643856 6.0294e+10 2175.7
- GDP_Agri 1 165002042 6.0302e+10 2175.7
- Production 1 166849411 6.0304e+10 2175.7
- JunD 1 168894930 6.0306e+10 2175.7
- GDP_Total 1 193330070 6.0331e+10 2175.8
- JulD 1 196739674 6.0334e+10 2175.8
- Hist_Sales 1 224902135 6.0362e+10 2175.8
- FebD 1 297743298 6.0435e+10 2175.9
- NovD 1 316981909 6.0454e+10 2176.0
- IIP 1 354853129 6.0492e+10 2176.0
- MPD_Prodn 1 418131974 6.0556e+10 2176.2
- MayD 1 459861689 6.0597e+10 2176.2
- AprD 1 461114359 6.0599e+10 2176.2
- SepD 1 521258929 6.0659e+10 2176.3
- IIP_perc 1 542824867 6.0680e+10 2176.4
- JanD 1 667281870 6.0805e+10 2176.6
- PMI 1 761273392 6.0899e+10 2176.7
- Time_Dummy 1 1099799460 6.1237e+10 2177.3
<none> 6.0137e+10 2177.4
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1516294824 6.1654e+10 2178.0
- PLR 1 1524345889 6.1662e+10 2178.1
- OECD 1 1841345254 6.1979e+10 2178.6
- OctD 1 3031336243 6.3169e+10 2180.6
- MarD 1 3298700912 6.3436e+10 2181.0
Step: AIC=2175.43
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + PassengerCars + OECD + PMI + Confidence +
PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + Mahindra_sales + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total +
Production + SCO_Prodn + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD +
MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + AugD + SepD + OctD + NovD +
Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- Mahindra_sales 1 4481920 6.0143e+10 2173.4
- AugD 1 8765386 6.0147e+10 2173.4
- SCO_Prodn 1 46539824 6.0185e+10 2173.5
- MCY_Prodn 1 112719935 6.0251e+10 2173.6
- Confidence 1 132969179 6.0271e+10 2173.7
- PassengerCars 1 156128202 6.0295e+10 2173.7
- GDP_Agri 1 165994367 6.0304e+10 2173.7
- JunD 1 172021658 6.0310e+10 2173.7
- Production 1 173786950 6.0312e+10 2173.7
- JulD 1 195815454 6.0334e+10 2173.8
- GDP_Total 1 197865061 6.0336e+10 2173.8
- Hist_Sales 1 232137079 6.0371e+10 2173.8
- FebD 1 311013380 6.0449e+10 2174.0
- NovD 1 335456937 6.0474e+10 2174.0
- IIP 1 362156124 6.0501e+10 2174.1
- MPD_Prodn 1 452813669 6.0591e+10 2174.2
- MayD 1 467136196 6.0606e+10 2174.2
- AprD 1 467646228 6.0606e+10 2174.2
- SepD 1 536252013 6.0675e+10 2174.4
- IIP_perc 1 550698669 6.0689e+10 2174.4
- JanD 1 685590062 6.0824e+10 2174.6
- PMI 1 786044843 6.0924e+10 2174.8
- Time_Dummy 1 1141227873 6.1280e+10 2175.4
<none> 6.0138e+10 2175.4
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1515515120 6.1654e+10 2176.0
- PLR 1 1604331493 6.1743e+10 2176.2
- OECD 1 1945513210 6.2084e+10 2176.8
- MarD 1 3300020367 6.3438e+10 2179.0
- OctD 1 3304526092 6.3443e+10 2179.0
Step: AIC=2173.43
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + PassengerCars + OECD + PMI + Confidence +
PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total + Production +
SCO_Prodn + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD + MarD +
AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + AugD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- AugD 1 10600054 6.0153e+10 2171.4
- SCO_Prodn 1 42543181 6.0185e+10 2171.5
- MCY_Prodn 1 108286550 6.0251e+10 2171.6
- Confidence 1 141669784 6.0285e+10 2171.7
- GDP_Agri 1 169132724 6.0312e+10 2171.7
- PassengerCars 1 169581981 6.0312e+10 2171.7
- Production 1 191020776 6.0334e+10 2171.8
- JulD 1 191350772 6.0334e+10 2171.8
- JunD 1 191448900 6.0334e+10 2171.8
- GDP_Total 1 201837117 6.0345e+10 2171.8
- Hist_Sales 1 253339549 6.0396e+10 2171.9
- FebD 1 312926695 6.0456e+10 2172.0
- IIP 1 358477975 6.0501e+10 2172.1
- NovD 1 381706416 6.0525e+10 2172.1
- MPD_Prodn 1 484320908 6.0627e+10 2172.3
- MayD 1 495331371 6.0638e+10 2172.3
- AprD 1 500122686 6.0643e+10 2172.3
- SepD 1 561111233 6.0704e+10 2172.4
- IIP_perc 1 610988234 6.0754e+10 2172.5
- JanD 1 681798983 6.0825e+10 2172.6
- PMI 1 825696689 6.0969e+10 2172.9
<none> 6.0143e+10 2173.4
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1528900179 6.1672e+10 2174.1
- Time_Dummy 1 1588850479 6.1732e+10 2174.2
- PLR 1 1652237751 6.1795e+10 2174.3
- OECD 1 2472257216 6.2615e+10 2175.7
- MarD 1 3302964991 6.3446e+10 2177.1
- OctD 1 3330387055 6.3473e+10 2177.1
Step: AIC=2171.45
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + PassengerCars + OECD + PMI + Confidence +
PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total + Production +
SCO_Prodn + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD + MarD +
AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- SCO_Prodn 1 34660938 6.0188e+10 2169.5
- MCY_Prodn 1 97928907 6.0251e+10 2169.6
- Confidence 1 147050327 6.0301e+10 2169.7
- PassengerCars 1 159852045 6.0313e+10 2169.7
- Production 1 237796996 6.0391e+10 2169.9
- Hist_Sales 1 268115496 6.0422e+10 2169.9
- IIP 1 348225684 6.0502e+10 2170.1
- GDP_Total 1 369091143 6.0523e+10 2170.1
- MPD_Prodn 1 491116153 6.0645e+10 2170.3
- GDP_Agri 1 546483940 6.0700e+10 2170.4
- NovD 1 579450528 6.0733e+10 2170.5
- IIP_perc 1 601005324 6.0754e+10 2170.5
- PMI 1 872955055 6.1026e+10 2171.0
<none> 6.0153e+10 2171.4
- JunD 1 1224412380 6.1378e+10 2171.6
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1518615042 6.1672e+10 2172.1
- Time_Dummy 1 1589850720 6.1743e+10 2172.2
- PLR 1 1653085765 6.1807e+10 2172.3
- FebD 1 1864541679 6.2018e+10 2172.7
- OECD 1 2462043519 6.2616e+10 2173.7
- JanD 1 3153105723 6.3307e+10 2174.8
- AprD 1 3958280654 6.4112e+10 2176.1
- JulD 1 4073811708 6.4227e+10 2176.3
- MayD 1 4188597639 6.4342e+10 2176.5
- OctD 1 6011000658 6.6164e+10 2179.4
- MarD 1 7395126481 6.7549e+10 2181.6
- SepD 1 7594596278 6.7748e+10 2181.9
Step: AIC=2169.51
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + PassengerCars + OECD + PMI + Confidence +
PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total + Production +
MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD +
JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- Confidence 1 1.3485e+08 6.0323e+10 2167.8
- PassengerCars 1 1.6208e+08 6.0350e+10 2167.8
- Hist_Sales 1 2.7494e+08 6.0463e+10 2168.0
- GDP_Total 1 3.4855e+08 6.0537e+10 2168.1
- IIP 1 3.8018e+08 6.0568e+10 2168.2
- MCY_Prodn 1 3.9532e+08 6.0583e+10 2168.2
- NovD 1 5.4956e+08 6.0738e+10 2168.5
- GDP_Agri 1 5.8523e+08 6.0773e+10 2168.5
- IIP_perc 1 5.9805e+08 6.0786e+10 2168.6
- MPD_Prodn 1 7.0825e+08 6.0896e+10 2168.7
- PMI 1 8.4231e+08 6.1030e+10 2169.0
<none> 6.0188e+10 2169.5
- JunD 1 1.1908e+09 6.1379e+10 2169.6
- Time_Dummy 1 1.5663e+09 6.1754e+10 2170.2
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1.5732e+09 6.1761e+10 2170.2
- PLR 1 1.6376e+09 6.1826e+10 2170.3
- FebD 1 1.8301e+09 6.2018e+10 2170.7
- OECD 1 2.4449e+09 6.2633e+10 2171.7
- JanD 1 3.1267e+09 6.3315e+10 2172.8
- AprD 1 3.9266e+09 6.4115e+10 2174.2
- JulD 1 4.1168e+09 6.4305e+10 2174.5
- MayD 1 4.1542e+09 6.4342e+10 2174.5
- OctD 1 5.9819e+09 6.6170e+10 2177.5
- MarD 1 7.3605e+09 6.7549e+10 2179.6
- SepD 1 7.6750e+09 6.7863e+10 2180.1
- Production 1 1.5079e+10 7.5267e+10 2191.0
Step: AIC=2167.75
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + PassengerCars + OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc +
IIP + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total + Production + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn +
JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD +
NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- PassengerCars 1 1.0100e+08 6.0424e+10 2165.9
- Hist_Sales 1 2.9750e+08 6.0621e+10 2166.3
- MCY_Prodn 1 3.5825e+08 6.0681e+10 2166.4
- GDP_Total 1 3.6076e+08 6.0684e+10 2166.4
- NovD 1 4.6088e+08 6.0784e+10 2166.6
- IIP 1 5.3450e+08 6.0858e+10 2166.7
- IIP_perc 1 6.0098e+08 6.0924e+10 2166.8
- MPD_Prodn 1 6.8383e+08 6.1007e+10 2166.9
- GDP_Agri 1 8.5592e+08 6.1179e+10 2167.2
- PMI 1 9.9953e+08 6.1323e+10 2167.5
<none> 6.0323e+10 2167.8
- JunD 1 1.2607e+09 6.1584e+10 2167.9
- PLR 1 1.5233e+09 6.1846e+10 2168.4
- Time_Dummy 1 1.5678e+09 6.1891e+10 2168.4
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1.7131e+09 6.2036e+10 2168.7
- FebD 1 1.8495e+09 6.2173e+10 2168.9
- OECD 1 2.5104e+09 6.2833e+10 2170.0
- JanD 1 3.3267e+09 6.3650e+10 2171.4
- JulD 1 3.9827e+09 6.4306e+10 2172.5
- AprD 1 4.0768e+09 6.4400e+10 2172.6
- MayD 1 4.3104e+09 6.4633e+10 2173.0
- OctD 1 5.8473e+09 6.6170e+10 2175.5
- SepD 1 7.6430e+09 6.7966e+10 2178.3
- MarD 1 7.8531e+09 6.8176e+10 2178.6
- Production 1 1.5321e+10 7.5644e+10 2189.5
Step: AIC=2165.92
Sales ~ Hist_Sales + OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri +
GDP_Total + Production + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD +
MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- Hist_Sales 1 3.0606e+08 6.0730e+10 2164.4
- GDP_Total 1 3.3426e+08 6.0758e+10 2164.5
- MCY_Prodn 1 3.4214e+08 6.0766e+10 2164.5
- NovD 1 3.8645e+08 6.0810e+10 2164.6
- IIP_perc 1 5.7147e+08 6.0995e+10 2164.9
- MPD_Prodn 1 5.8329e+08 6.1007e+10 2164.9
- IIP 1 6.9359e+08 6.1118e+10 2165.1
- GDP_Agri 1 9.4884e+08 6.1373e+10 2165.6
<none> 6.0424e+10 2165.9
- JunD 1 1.3159e+09 6.1740e+10 2166.2
- PMI 1 1.3178e+09 6.1742e+10 2166.2
- PLR 1 1.4267e+09 6.1851e+10 2166.4
- Time_Dummy 1 1.5554e+09 6.1979e+10 2166.6
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1.6766e+09 6.2101e+10 2166.8
- FebD 1 1.7490e+09 6.2173e+10 2166.9
- OECD 1 2.4574e+09 6.2881e+10 2168.1
- JanD 1 3.2443e+09 6.3668e+10 2169.4
- JulD 1 3.9249e+09 6.4349e+10 2170.5
- AprD 1 4.1318e+09 6.4556e+10 2170.9
- MayD 1 4.3732e+09 6.4797e+10 2171.3
- OctD 1 5.7655e+09 6.6190e+10 2173.5
- SepD 1 7.5526e+09 6.7977e+10 2176.3
- MarD 1 7.8340e+09 6.8258e+10 2176.7
- Production 1 1.5319e+10 7.5743e+10 2187.7
Step: AIC=2164.45
Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri + GDP_Total +
Production + MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD + MarD +
AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- GDP_Total 1 2.0655e+08 6.0937e+10 2162.8
- MCY_Prodn 1 2.4453e+08 6.0975e+10 2162.9
- NovD 1 2.9404e+08 6.1024e+10 2163.0
- MPD_Prodn 1 6.1893e+08 6.1349e+10 2163.5
- IIP_perc 1 6.1990e+08 6.1350e+10 2163.5
- GDP_Agri 1 7.4205e+08 6.1472e+10 2163.7
- IIP 1 7.4736e+08 6.1477e+10 2163.7
- JunD 1 1.1451e+09 6.1875e+10 2164.4
<none> 6.0730e+10 2164.4
- PMI 1 1.4915e+09 6.2222e+10 2165.0
- Time_Dummy 1 1.5488e+09 6.2279e+10 2165.1
- PLR 1 1.5918e+09 6.2322e+10 2165.2
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1.5922e+09 6.2322e+10 2165.2
- FebD 1 1.6015e+09 6.2332e+10 2165.2
- OECD 1 2.2423e+09 6.2972e+10 2166.3
- AprD 1 3.8928e+09 6.4623e+10 2169.0
- JanD 1 4.0364e+09 6.4766e+10 2169.2
- JulD 1 4.1550e+09 6.4885e+10 2169.4
- MayD 1 4.3547e+09 6.5085e+10 2169.7
- OctD 1 5.5981e+09 6.6328e+10 2171.7
- MarD 1 7.6391e+09 6.8369e+10 2174.9
- SepD 1 7.6405e+09 6.8371e+10 2174.9
- Production 1 1.6009e+10 7.6739e+10 2187.0
Step: AIC=2162.81
Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri + Production +
MCY_Prodn + MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD +
JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- MCY_Prodn 1 3.3377e+08 6.1270e+10 2161.4
- NovD 1 4.4287e+08 6.1379e+10 2161.6
- GDP_Agri 1 5.3873e+08 6.1475e+10 2161.7
- IIP_perc 1 6.3970e+08 6.1576e+10 2161.9
- MPD_Prodn 1 1.0532e+09 6.1990e+10 2162.6
- JunD 1 1.0730e+09 6.2010e+10 2162.6
<none> 6.0937e+10 2162.8
- IIP 1 1.3514e+09 6.2288e+10 2163.1
- PLR 1 1.4202e+09 6.2357e+10 2163.2
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1.5566e+09 6.2493e+10 2163.5
- PMI 1 1.6092e+09 6.2546e+10 2163.6
- Time_Dummy 1 1.6700e+09 6.2607e+10 2163.7
- FebD 1 1.7878e+09 6.2724e+10 2163.8
- OECD 1 2.1259e+09 6.3062e+10 2164.4
- AprD 1 3.7826e+09 6.4719e+10 2167.1
- JanD 1 3.9808e+09 6.4917e+10 2167.4
- MayD 1 4.1738e+09 6.5110e+10 2167.8
- JulD 1 4.6001e+09 6.5537e+10 2168.4
- OctD 1 5.9005e+09 6.6837e+10 2170.5
- MarD 1 7.5575e+09 6.8494e+10 2173.1
- SepD 1 7.7503e+09 6.8687e+10 2173.4
- Production 1 1.5864e+10 7.6800e+10 2185.1
Step: AIC=2161.38
Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + GDP_Agri + Production +
MPD_Prodn + JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD +
SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- GDP_Agri 1 3.9608e+08 6.1666e+10 2160.1
- NovD 1 5.5048e+08 6.1821e+10 2160.3
- IIP_perc 1 9.1573e+08 6.2186e+10 2160.9
- IIP 1 1.0758e+09 6.2346e+10 2161.2
<none> 6.1270e+10 2161.4
- JunD 1 1.2991e+09 6.2569e+10 2161.6
- MPD_Prodn 1 1.3433e+09 6.2614e+10 2161.7
- PMI 1 1.4740e+09 6.2744e+10 2161.9
- FebD 1 1.5740e+09 6.2844e+10 2162.1
- Time_Dummy 1 1.6258e+09 6.2896e+10 2162.1
- OECD 1 1.8741e+09 6.3145e+10 2162.6
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 2.2692e+09 6.3540e+10 2163.2
- PLR 1 2.4844e+09 6.3755e+10 2163.6
- JanD 1 3.7498e+09 6.5020e+10 2165.6
- AprD 1 4.1757e+09 6.5446e+10 2166.3
- MayD 1 4.6820e+09 6.5952e+10 2167.1
- JulD 1 5.9167e+09 6.7187e+10 2169.1
- OctD 1 6.8450e+09 6.8115e+10 2170.5
- MarD 1 7.4263e+09 6.8697e+10 2171.4
- SepD 1 7.5844e+09 6.8855e+10 2171.6
- Production 1 1.9467e+11 2.5594e+11 2309.5
Step: AIC=2160.06
Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + IIP + Production + MPD_Prodn +
JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD +
NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- IIP 1 6.8207e+08 6.2349e+10 2159.2
- MPD_Prodn 1 1.0578e+09 6.2724e+10 2159.8
<none> 6.1666e+10 2160.1
- JunD 1 1.3002e+09 6.2967e+10 2160.2
- IIP_perc 1 1.3730e+09 6.3039e+10 2160.4
- FebD 1 1.6465e+09 6.3313e+10 2160.8
- Time_Dummy 1 1.8126e+09 6.3479e+10 2161.1
- OECD 1 1.8801e+09 6.3547e+10 2161.2
- NovD 1 1.8857e+09 6.3552e+10 2161.2
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 2.0187e+09 6.3685e+10 2161.4
- PLR 1 2.1984e+09 6.3865e+10 2161.7
- PMI 1 2.2339e+09 6.3900e+10 2161.8
- JanD 1 3.3600e+09 6.5027e+10 2163.6
- AprD 1 4.2865e+09 6.5953e+10 2165.1
- MayD 1 4.4927e+09 6.6159e+10 2165.4
- MarD 1 7.2167e+09 6.8883e+10 2169.7
- SepD 1 7.6767e+09 6.9343e+10 2170.4
- JulD 1 8.0135e+09 6.9680e+10 2170.9
- OctD 1 1.1908e+10 7.3575e+10 2176.6
- Production 1 2.1155e+11 2.7321e+11 2314.3
Step: AIC=2159.21
Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + Production + MPD_Prodn +
JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD +
NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
- MPD_Prodn 1 4.8815e+08 6.2837e+10 2158.0
<none> 6.2349e+10 2159.2
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 1.9434e+09 6.4292e+10 2160.4
- JunD 1 2.0059e+09 6.4354e+10 2160.5
- PLR 1 2.1075e+09 6.4456e+10 2160.7
- FebD 1 2.1321e+09 6.4481e+10 2160.8
- OECD 1 2.6144e+09 6.4963e+10 2161.5
- JanD 1 2.6910e+09 6.5040e+10 2161.7
- NovD 1 2.8924e+09 6.5241e+10 2162.0
- Time_Dummy 1 3.1073e+09 6.5456e+10 2162.3
- IIP_perc 1 3.4895e+09 6.5838e+10 2162.9
- PMI 1 4.2543e+09 6.6603e+10 2164.2
- MayD 1 5.3249e+09 6.7673e+10 2165.8
- AprD 1 6.5376e+09 6.8886e+10 2167.7
- JulD 1 7.3323e+09 6.9681e+10 2168.9
- MarD 1 7.4416e+09 6.9790e+10 2169.1
- SepD 1 8.2456e+09 7.0594e+10 2170.3
- OctD 1 1.3092e+10 7.5441e+10 2177.2
- Production 1 2.4398e+11 3.0633e+11 2324.4
Step: AIC=2158.03
Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + Production + JanD + FebD +
MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy
Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
<none> 6.2837e+10 2158.0
- JunD 1 2.1363e+09 6.4973e+10 2159.5
- OECD 1 2.6021e+09 6.5439e+10 2160.3
- JanD 1 2.6132e+09 6.5450e+10 2160.3
- FebD 1 2.7710e+09 6.5608e+10 2160.6
- Petrol_Delhi_prices 1 2.8920e+09 6.5729e+10 2160.8
- NovD 1 2.8929e+09 6.5730e+10 2160.8
- PLR 1 2.9416e+09 6.5778e+10 2160.8
- Time_Dummy 1 3.0636e+09 6.5900e+10 2161.0
- IIP_perc 1 3.7468e+09 6.6583e+10 2162.1
- PMI 1 3.7665e+09 6.6603e+10 2162.2
- MayD 1 5.4643e+09 6.8301e+10 2164.8
- JulD 1 6.9427e+09 6.9779e+10 2167.0
- AprD 1 7.0363e+09 6.9873e+10 2167.2
- SepD 1 7.8747e+09 7.0711e+10 2168.4
- MarD 1 9.5709e+09 7.2408e+10 2170.9
- OctD 1 1.3089e+10 7.5926e+10 2175.9
- Production 1 2.7881e+11 3.4165e+11 2333.8
Call:
lm(formula = Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + Production +
JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD +
NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy, data = veh)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) OECD PMI PLR IIP_perc Production
-5.825e+05 8.724e+03 5.708e+02 -1.049e+04 -2.003e+03 8.629e-01
JanD FebD MarD AprD MayD JunD
2.157e+04 2.182e+04 4.076e+04 3.499e+04 3.112e+04 1.917e+04
JulD SepD OctD NovD Petrol_Delhi_prices Time_Dummy
-3.479e+04 3.951e+04 5.263e+04 2.321e+04 1.833e+03 -6.251e+03 Using the output to perform Regression
fit<-lm(Sales ~OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + Production + JanD + FebD +
MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD + NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices +
Time_Dummy,data = veh)
summary(fit)
Call:
lm(formula = Sales ~ OECD + PMI + PLR + IIP_perc + Production +
JanD + FebD + MarD + AprD + MayD + JunD + JulD + SepD + OctD +
NovD + Petrol_Delhi_prices + Time_Dummy, data = veh)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-66348 -13968 2496 13331 66470
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -5.825e+05 3.626e+05 -1.606 0.111794
OECD 8.724e+03 4.596e+03 1.898 0.061002 .
PMI 5.708e+02 2.500e+02 2.284 0.024831 *
PLR -1.049e+04 5.196e+03 -2.018 0.046662 *
IIP_perc -2.003e+03 8.796e+02 -2.278 0.025200 *
Production 8.629e-01 4.392e-02 19.648 < 2e-16 ***
JanD 2.157e+04 1.134e+04 1.902 0.060464 .
FebD 2.182e+04 1.114e+04 1.959 0.053349 .
MarD 4.076e+04 1.120e+04 3.640 0.000462 ***
AprD 3.499e+04 1.121e+04 3.121 0.002444 **
MayD 3.112e+04 1.131e+04 2.751 0.007237 **
JunD 1.917e+04 1.114e+04 1.720 0.089020 .
JulD -3.479e+04 1.122e+04 -3.100 0.002604 **
SepD 3.951e+04 1.197e+04 3.302 0.001394 **
OctD 5.263e+04 1.236e+04 4.257 5.21e-05 ***
NovD 2.321e+04 1.160e+04 2.001 0.048471 *
Petrol_Delhi_prices 1.833e+03 9.159e+02 2.001 0.048507 *
Time_Dummy -6.251e+03 3.035e+03 -2.060 0.042432 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 26870 on 87 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9927, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9912
F-statistic: 693 on 17 and 87 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16The Best fit output gives an R-square of 0.9927 and Adjusted R-Square of 0.9912. The P-value of 2.2e-16.
Interestingly the sales take a dip in July and are maxinum in the month of October. This can be further explained by seasonality Index.
Also petrol prices have a significant impact on Sales.