Welcome
Over the past few years I have created a straightforward way to rank college football teams. Basically, I wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare resumes of different teams. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.
Basic Idea
I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:
- Bin 3: Elite teams, the cream of the crop. Typically the top 6-8 teams in the country. (e.g. Alabama, Penn State)
- Bin 2: Teams that are “solidly ranked.” Not quite elite, but clearly top 25. (e.g. Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, NC State)
- Bin 1: Teams that are “borderline ranked.” You certainly can make a case they are a top 25 team, but certainly can make the case they are not. (e.g. West Virginia, Memphis, Texas AM)
- Bin 0: Teams that are “solidly unranked.” Decent teams that have a pulse, but are not considered close to being top 25. (e.g. Kansas State, Arizona State, Wake Forest)
- Bin -1: Starting to get a little worse here. Slightly above-average non-Power 5 teams and below average Power-5 teams are often found here. (e.g. Arkansas, Colorado State, SMU)
- Bin -2: Bad/average non-Power 5 teams, and REALLY bad Power 5 teams. (e.g. Utah State, UL Lafayette, Kansas)
- Bin -3: Really really bad. There are typically about 10 of these. (e.g. Charlotte, Texas State)
If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc. For example, Clemson should not be considered in bin 3 after their loss this week, but they seem to be close enough where a 2.5 bin is warranted.
This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.
The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 22 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.
So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses.
Week 8: Let’s Talk about Bama
If you’ve been following my page this season, you’ll know that Alabama has been chronically rated low by my rankings. This week, the Tide fall to 6th, getting passed by Penn State and Notre Dame and remaining behind Georgia, TCU, and Clemson. I have been unhappy about how Alabama has been ranked by my system all season, and seeing that they have now fallen to 6th this week, I wanted to focus on them for a few seconds.
As I’ve repeatedly stated, my rankings are not intended to measure the innate ability of a team. They should solely be used to compare bodies of work, while adding just a hint of subjectivity. And the fact of the matter is, Alabama’s schedule simply has not been very strong this season. They have beaten no one currently in the AP top 25 (Texas AM comes close), and have beaten only one power 5 team with a winning record (Texas AM). You could make the case that their second best win this season is FSU - and I’m not talking about Florida State. Fresno State (36th in my rankings) is the third best win for Bama this year according to my rankings, just behind Bama’s win against the other FSU Seminoles (34th). Ultimately, Alabama’s seven wins have been against the rankings of AT 26, 34, 36, 44, 59, AT 66, and 68.
The ultimate disconnect between my rankings and the nationwide perception of the Tide is that my rankings don’t take into account the sheer shellacking that Alabama has been giving their opponents. For better or for worse, my system only takes margin of victory into account in one way: a game is either a “blowout” (22 point win or greater) or a “non-blowout” (21 point win or fewer). This approach keeps things simple for me, but it also makes sense: is a 48 point win really that much more informative than a 28 point win? I didn’t want to split hairs about exact margin of blowout victories, especially considering the randomness of garbarge time scoring. I feel this strategy is effective on a global scale, but misses Alabama’s dominance. At the same time, what is a better body of work: beating several very good teams (like, say, ND winning at MSU and crushing USC) or utterly dominating mediocre teams like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Tennessee?
I still stand by the argument that Alabama’s resume is shallow. They can have a mediocre resume and be the best team in the country at the same time. Since my rankings measure the former and not the latter, I am tepidly okay with Bama falling to 6th, even if people will scoff when they see it.
Playoff Talk: Who Controls Their Destiny?
Starting this week, I will no longer write conference reviews below, but will instead spend some time here discussing the current playoff picture. Believe it or not, there are only five more Saturdays before the conference championship weekend, meaning the opportunities for elite teams to be upset are starting to dwindle. I figured a nice exercise at this point of the year is to examine which teams have their own fate completely 100% in their hands. In other words, which teams are absolutely, no doubt guaranteed to make the playoff if they win their remaining games? I think there are six teams that fit into this category: Miami from the ACC, TCU from the Big 12, Penn State and Wisconsin from the Big 10, and Alabama and Georgia from the SEC. In other words, all undefeated power 5 teams. Everyone else, including “top-notch” one-loss teams like Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame will either need certain teams to lose, or some help from the committee in order to get in. They don’t quite have the luxury of knowing that if they win out, they’ll be in.
Two teams that could throw a curveball into the selection process are Notre Dame and Georgia. The conventional season would result in four power 5 conference champions making the playoff. For example, a “conventional” result this year may have something like ACC champ Clemson, Big 10 champ OSU, SEC champ Bama, and Big 12 champ TCU in the playoff. However, the two teams mentioned above have an opportunity to smash that typical playoff structure. Notre Dame is particularly interesting becuase their schedule is just so full of great teams. They have already played Georgia (lost), at MSU, BC (don’t totally sleep on the Eagles), and USC this past Saturday. However, the Irish still play NC State this week, at Miami, and Stanford. If they get through that slate undefeated, it would be very difficult to leave them out. But whose spot would they take? One-loss TCU? Clemson? Ohio State?
The growing dominance of Georgia and Alabama in the SEC is also noteworthy. What if Alabama and Georgia, who both still have some tests remaining, both end the regular season undefeated? If Alabama beats Georgia in a tight championship game, can you really leave out one-loss Georgia? It’s easy to say “no way, they’re in no doubt,” but like with ND, whose spot do they take? I can see a very possible scenario where you have an undefeated Alabama, and then 5 one-loss teams (maybe Big 12 champ TCU, ACC champ Clemson, Big 10 champ Ohio State, and then Georgia and Notre Dame) jockeying for just three spots. Obviously it is too early for the “what-if” playoff scenarios, but I thought this one was fun to reflect on. One more potential question for the committee: would they choose Notre Dame, who would have a plethora of big wins, or one-loss Georgia, who has fewer big wins but a head-to-head win at ND? Good luck to the committee on that one.
Here are the Week 8 rankings:
| 1 |
Georgia |
7.5 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
1 |
29 |
| 2 |
Penn State |
7.25 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
T4 |
36 |
| 3 |
TCU |
6.75 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
2 |
29 |
| 4 |
Notre Dame |
6.75 |
6-1 |
(0-0) |
9 |
2 |
| 5 |
Clemson |
6.5 |
6-1 |
(4-1) |
3 |
52 |
| 6 |
Alabama |
6 |
8-0 |
(5-0) |
T4 |
45 |
| 7 |
Miami |
5.75 |
6-0 |
(4-0) |
6 |
25 |
| 8 |
Michigan State |
4.75 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
10 |
21 |
| 9 |
UCF |
4.5 |
6-0 |
(4-0) |
12 |
69 |
| 10 |
Wisconsin |
4.25 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
7 |
59 |
| 11 |
Oklahoma |
4 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
T14 |
12 |
| 12 |
OK State |
3.75 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
T14 |
29 |
| 13 |
Virginia Tech |
3.5 |
6-1 |
(2-1) |
13 |
25 |
| 14 |
Ohio State |
3.25 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
11 |
12 |
| 15 |
USC |
3 |
6-2 |
(4-1) |
8 |
52 |
| T16 |
Washington St |
2.75 |
7-1 |
(4-1) |
T14 |
16 |
| T16 |
NC State |
2.75 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
T17 |
16 |
| 18 |
S Florida |
2 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
20 |
63 |
| 19 |
Auburn |
2 |
6-2 |
(4-1) |
22 |
3 |
| 20 |
Washington |
1.75 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
21 |
16 |
| 21 |
Stanford |
1.75 |
5-2 |
(4-1) |
19 |
3 |
| 22 |
Michigan |
1.75 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
T17 |
25 |
| 23 |
Memphis |
1.5 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
25 |
85 |
| 24 |
Mississippi St |
1.25 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
29 |
52 |
| 25 |
West Virginia |
1 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
24 |
3 |
| 26 |
Texas AM |
0.5 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
26 |
45 |
| 27 |
Iowa State |
-0.25 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
41 |
3 |
| 28 |
LSU |
-0.75 |
6-2 |
(3-1) |
36 |
25 |
| 29 |
Georgia Tech |
-0.75 |
4-2 |
(3-1) |
42 |
1 |
| 30 |
Iowa |
-0.75 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
28 |
12 |
| 31 |
South Carolina |
-1 |
5-2 |
(3-2) |
31 |
29 |
| 32 |
Toledo |
-1 |
6-1 |
(3-0) |
40 |
107 |
| 33 |
Arizona St |
-1.5 |
4-3 |
(3-1) |
47 |
58 |
| 34 |
Florida State |
-1.5 |
2-4 |
(2-3) |
27 |
52 |
| 35 |
Marshall |
-1.5 |
6-1 |
(3-0) |
45 |
95 |
| 36 |
Fresno St |
-1.5 |
5-2 |
(4-0) |
63 |
102 |
| T37 |
Navy |
-1.75 |
5-2 |
(3-2) |
37 |
67 |
| T37 |
Boise State |
-1.75 |
5-2 |
(3-0) |
T34 |
91 |
| T39 |
Northwestern |
-2 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
T48 |
59 |
| T39 |
UCLA |
-2 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
T50 |
21 |
| T41 |
Louisville |
-2.25 |
5-3 |
(2-3) |
T54 |
45 |
| T41 |
Texas Tech |
-2.25 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
T34 |
12 |
| 43 |
Indiana |
-2.25 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
32 |
63 |
| 44 |
Colorado St |
-2.25 |
6-2 |
(4-0) |
T52 |
81 |
| 45 |
Arizona |
-2.5 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
57 |
36 |
| 46 |
Wake Forest |
-2.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
46 |
9 |
| T47 |
Boston College |
-2.75 |
4-4 |
(2-3) |
68 |
45 |
| T47 |
Syracuse |
-2.75 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
T50 |
45 |
| 49 |
Florida |
-2.75 |
3-3 |
(3-2) |
T43 |
52 |
| 50 |
Texas |
-2.75 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
T43 |
39 |
| 51 |
SMU |
-2.75 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
T52 |
45 |
| T52 |
San Diego St |
-3 |
6-2 |
(2-2) |
23 |
110 |
| T52 |
Kentucky |
-3 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
33 |
39 |
| 54 |
App State |
-3 |
5-2 |
(4-0) |
56 |
126 |
| 55 |
Virginia |
-3.25 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
30 |
9 |
| 56 |
Utah |
-3.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
38 |
16 |
| 57 |
Maryland |
-3.5 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
T59 |
9 |
| 58 |
California |
-4 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
39 |
52 |
| 59 |
Tennessee |
-4 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
T61 |
63 |
| 60 |
Troy |
-4 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
64 |
130 |
| 61 |
Kansas State |
-4.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
T61 |
29 |
| 62 |
Pittsburgh |
-4.25 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
72 |
21 |
| 63 |
Army |
-4.25 |
6-2 |
(0-0) |
T65 |
71 |
| 64 |
Oregon |
-4.5 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
T54 |
44 |
| 65 |
N Illinois |
-4.5 |
5-2 |
(3-0) |
T65 |
102 |
| 66 |
Vanderbilt |
-5 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
70 |
69 |
| 67 |
Purdue |
-5.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
T48 |
67 |
| 68 |
Ole Miss |
-5.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
T59 |
59 |
| 69 |
Minnesota |
-5.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
73 |
16 |
| 70 |
FIU |
-5.5 |
4-2 |
(2-1) |
T80 |
95 |
| 71 |
Duke |
-5.75 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
58 |
39 |
| T72 |
Colorado |
-5.75 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
71 |
39 |
| T72 |
Nebraska |
-5.75 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
77 |
29 |
| 74 |
Arkansas St |
-5.75 |
4-2 |
(3-0) |
78 |
110 |
| 75 |
Houston |
-6 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
67 |
63 |
| 76 |
Arkansas |
-6 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
69 |
71 |
| 77 |
Southern Miss |
-6 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
T74 |
110 |
| 78 |
W Michigan |
-6 |
5-3 |
(3-1) |
79 |
85 |
| 79 |
FAU |
-6.5 |
4-3 |
(3-0) |
T84 |
107 |
| T80 |
Ohio |
-6.75 |
6-2 |
(3-1) |
T82 |
85 |
| T80 |
UTSA |
-6.75 |
4-2 |
(1-2) |
T82 |
116 |
| 82 |
W Kentucky |
-7 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
87 |
88 |
| 83 |
Wyoming |
-7 |
4-3 |
(2-1) |
T74 |
95 |
| 84 |
Tulane |
-7.25 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
T84 |
77 |
| 85 |
Rutgers |
-7.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
90 |
3 |
| 86 |
Air Force |
-8.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
89 |
80 |
| 87 |
Akron |
-8.5 |
4-4 |
(3-1) |
86 |
95 |
| T88 |
N Texas |
-8.75 |
4-3 |
(3-1) |
T74 |
128 |
| T88 |
Georgia St |
-8.75 |
3-3 |
(2-1) |
T80 |
126 |
| 90 |
Missouri |
-9 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
93 |
75 |
| 91 |
Utah State |
-9.25 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
T95 |
81 |
| 92 |
N Mexico St |
-10 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
T99 |
122 |
| T93 |
C Michigan |
-10.75 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
105 |
91 |
| T93 |
S Alabama |
-10.75 |
3-4 |
(2-1) |
T101 |
116 |
| 95 |
UAB |
-10.75 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
88 |
105 |
| 96 |
Temple |
-11 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
T95 |
59 |
| T97 |
Uconn |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(2-3) |
108 |
71 |
| T97 |
New Mexico |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
94 |
76 |
| T97 |
Louisiana Tech |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
91 |
122 |
| T97 |
UL Monroe |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(3-2) |
92 |
71 |
| 101 |
Oregon State |
-11.75 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
106 |
36 |
| 102 |
Cincinnati |
-12 |
2-6 |
(0-4) |
97 |
81 |
| 103 |
Illinois |
-12.25 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
103 |
3 |
| 104 |
Hawaii |
-12.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
114 |
91 |
| 105 |
UL Lafayette |
-12.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
98 |
105 |
| 106 |
North Carolina |
-13 |
1-7 |
(0-5) |
109 |
39 |
| 107 |
E Michigan |
-13 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
T99 |
116 |
| 108 |
Baylor |
-13.5 |
0-7 |
(0-4) |
113 |
29 |
| 109 |
Miami OH |
-13.5 |
3-5 |
(2-2) |
120 |
95 |
| 110 |
Kansas |
-13.5 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
118 |
21 |
| 111 |
E Carolina |
-13.5 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
119 |
77 |
| 112 |
UNLV |
-13.75 |
2-5 |
(1-3) |
T101 |
116 |
| 113 |
Buffalo |
-14 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
107 |
102 |
| 114 |
Tulsa |
-14.25 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
110 |
45 |
| 115 |
Mid Tennessee |
-14.25 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
104 |
110 |
| 116 |
Kent State |
-15 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
112 |
95 |
| 117 |
Old Dominion |
-15.25 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
111 |
128 |
| 118 |
BYU |
-16 |
1-7 |
(0-0) |
115 |
122 |
| 119 |
Idaho |
-16.25 |
2-5 |
(1-3) |
117 |
110 |
| 120 |
Ball State |
-16.5 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
116 |
95 |
| 121 |
Nevada |
-17.25 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
122 |
77 |
| 122 |
Rice |
-17.25 |
1-6 |
(1-2) |
121 |
116 |
| 123 |
GA Southern |
-18.75 |
0-6 |
(0-3) |
123 |
122 |
| 124 |
Umass |
-19 |
1-6 |
(0-0) |
126 |
81 |
| 125 |
San Jose St |
-19.5 |
1-7 |
(0-4) |
128 |
88 |
| 126 |
Texas St |
-19.75 |
1-6 |
(0-3) |
127 |
107 |
| 127 |
Co Carolina |
-20 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
125 |
116 |
| 128 |
Bowling Green |
-20.5 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
124 |
88 |
| 129 |
UTEP |
-20.75 |
0-7 |
(0-3) |
129 |
110 |
| 130 |
Charlotte |
-22.25 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
130 |
91 |
Interesting Plot of the Week
The Pac 12 South has been a mess to try to decipher this season. USC has been the perceived favorite, but with their blowout loss on Saturday, perhaps a door is opening for another team to take the division. Two teams that have shot up the rankings recently are the two Arizona schools. Neither team had high expectations coming into the season, but the Wildcats look like a different team with Khalil Tate under center, and Arizona State has shut down Washington and Utah in back-to-back weeks. This plot shows their recent ascension. Utah, on the other hand, is free-falling after three straight losses.

Conference Ranks

| 1 |
SEC |
-1.3929 |
| 2 |
ACC |
-1.4464 |
| 3 |
Big 10 |
-1.6786 |
| 4 |
Big 12 |
-2.1 |
| 5 |
Pac 12 |
-2.1875 |
| 6 |
Amer |
-5.9792 |
| 7 |
Ind |
-8.125 |
| 8 |
MW |
-8.9375 |
| 9 |
MAC |
-10.8333 |
| 10 |
CUSA |
-10.9821 |
| 11 |
S Belt |
-11.7292 |
Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:
ACC
| 1 |
Clemson |
6.5 |
6-1 |
(4-1) |
13 |
5 |
| 2 |
Miami |
5.75 |
6-0 |
(4-0) |
6 |
7 |
| 3 |
Virginia Tech |
3.5 |
6-1 |
(2-1) |
6 |
13 |
| 4 |
NC State |
2.75 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
4 |
T16 |
| 5 |
Georgia Tech |
-0.75 |
4-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
29 |
| 6 |
Florida State |
-1.5 |
2-4 |
(2-3) |
13 |
34 |
| 7 |
Louisville |
-2.25 |
5-3 |
(2-3) |
10 |
T41 |
| 8 |
Wake Forest |
-2.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
2 |
46 |
| T9 |
Boston College |
-2.75 |
4-4 |
(2-3) |
10 |
T47 |
| T9 |
Syracuse |
-2.75 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
10 |
T47 |
| 11 |
Virginia |
-3.25 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
2 |
55 |
| 12 |
Pittsburgh |
-4.25 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
5 |
62 |
| 13 |
Duke |
-5.75 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
8 |
71 |
| 14 |
North Carolina |
-13 |
1-7 |
(0-5) |
8 |
106 |
Big 10
| 1 |
Penn State |
7.25 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
10 |
2 |
| 2 |
Michigan State |
4.75 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
7 |
8 |
| 3 |
Wisconsin |
4.25 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
11 |
10 |
| 4 |
Ohio State |
3.25 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
4 |
14 |
| 5 |
Michigan |
1.75 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
8 |
22 |
| 6 |
Iowa |
-0.75 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
4 |
30 |
| 7 |
Northwestern |
-2 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
11 |
T39 |
| 8 |
Indiana |
-2.25 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
13 |
43 |
| 9 |
Maryland |
-3.5 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
3 |
57 |
| 10 |
Purdue |
-5.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
14 |
67 |
| 11 |
Minnesota |
-5.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
6 |
69 |
| 12 |
Nebraska |
-5.75 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
9 |
T72 |
| 13 |
Rutgers |
-7.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
1 |
85 |
| 14 |
Illinois |
-12.25 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
1 |
103 |
SEC
| 1 |
Georgia |
7.5 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
3 |
1 |
| 2 |
Alabama |
6 |
8-0 |
(5-0) |
6 |
6 |
| 3 |
Auburn |
2 |
6-2 |
(4-1) |
1 |
19 |
| 4 |
Mississippi St |
1.25 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
8 |
24 |
| 5 |
Texas AM |
0.5 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
6 |
26 |
| 6 |
LSU |
-0.75 |
6-2 |
(3-1) |
2 |
28 |
| 7 |
South Carolina |
-1 |
5-2 |
(3-2) |
3 |
31 |
| 8 |
Florida |
-2.75 |
3-3 |
(3-2) |
8 |
49 |
| 9 |
Kentucky |
-3 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
5 |
T52 |
| 10 |
Tennessee |
-4 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
11 |
59 |
| 11 |
Vanderbilt |
-5 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
12 |
66 |
| 12 |
Ole Miss |
-5.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
10 |
68 |
| 13 |
Arkansas |
-6 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
13 |
76 |
| 14 |
Missouri |
-9 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
14 |
90 |
Big 12
| 1 |
TCU |
6.75 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
6 |
3 |
| 2 |
Oklahoma |
4 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
3 |
11 |
| 3 |
OK State |
3.75 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
6 |
12 |
| 4 |
West Virginia |
1 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
25 |
| 5 |
Iowa State |
-0.25 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
27 |
| 6 |
Texas Tech |
-2.25 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
3 |
T41 |
| 7 |
Texas |
-2.75 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
10 |
50 |
| 8 |
Kansas State |
-4.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
6 |
61 |
| 9 |
Baylor |
-13.5 |
0-7 |
(0-4) |
6 |
108 |
| 10 |
Kansas |
-13.5 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
5 |
110 |
Pac 12
| 1 |
USC |
3 |
6-2 |
(4-1) |
10 |
15 |
| 2 |
Washington St |
2.75 |
7-1 |
(4-1) |
2 |
T16 |
| 3 |
Washington |
1.75 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
2 |
20 |
| 4 |
Stanford |
1.75 |
5-2 |
(4-1) |
1 |
21 |
| 5 |
Arizona St |
-1.5 |
4-3 |
(3-1) |
12 |
33 |
| 6 |
UCLA |
-2 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
5 |
T39 |
| 7 |
Arizona |
-2.5 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
6 |
45 |
| 8 |
Utah |
-3.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
2 |
56 |
| 9 |
California |
-4 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
10 |
58 |
| 10 |
Oregon |
-4.5 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
9 |
64 |
| 11 |
Colorado |
-5.75 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
8 |
T72 |
| 12 |
Oregon State |
-11.75 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
6 |
101 |
American
| 1 |
UCF |
4.5 |
6-0 |
(4-0) |
7 |
9 |
| 2 |
S Florida |
2 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
4 |
18 |
| 3 |
Memphis |
1.5 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
12 |
23 |
| 4 |
Navy |
-1.75 |
5-2 |
(3-2) |
6 |
T37 |
| 5 |
SMU |
-2.75 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
1 |
51 |
| 6 |
Houston |
-6 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
4 |
75 |
| 7 |
Tulane |
-7.25 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
9 |
84 |
| 8 |
Temple |
-11 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
3 |
96 |
| 9 |
Uconn |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(2-3) |
8 |
T97 |
| 10 |
Cincinnati |
-12 |
2-6 |
(0-4) |
11 |
102 |
| 11 |
E Carolina |
-13.5 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
9 |
111 |
| 12 |
Tulsa |
-14.25 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
1 |
114 |
Mountain West
| 1 |
Fresno St |
-1.5 |
5-2 |
(4-0) |
10 |
36 |
| 2 |
Boise State |
-1.75 |
5-2 |
(3-0) |
7 |
T37 |
| 3 |
Colorado St |
-2.25 |
6-2 |
(4-0) |
4 |
44 |
| 4 |
San Diego St |
-3 |
6-2 |
(2-2) |
11 |
T52 |
| 5 |
Wyoming |
-7 |
4-3 |
(2-1) |
9 |
83 |
| 6 |
Air Force |
-8.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
3 |
86 |
| 7 |
Utah State |
-9.25 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
4 |
91 |
| 8 |
New Mexico |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
1 |
T97 |
| 9 |
Hawaii |
-12.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
7 |
104 |
| 10 |
UNLV |
-13.75 |
2-5 |
(1-3) |
12 |
112 |
| 11 |
Nevada |
-17.25 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
2 |
121 |
| 12 |
San Jose St |
-19.5 |
1-7 |
(0-4) |
6 |
125 |
MAC
| 1 |
Toledo |
-1 |
6-1 |
(3-0) |
11 |
32 |
| 2 |
N Illinois |
-4.5 |
5-2 |
(3-0) |
9 |
65 |
| 3 |
W Michigan |
-6 |
5-3 |
(3-1) |
1 |
78 |
| 4 |
Ohio |
-6.75 |
6-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
T80 |
| 5 |
Akron |
-8.5 |
4-4 |
(3-1) |
5 |
87 |
| 6 |
C Michigan |
-10.75 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
4 |
T93 |
| 7 |
E Michigan |
-13 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
12 |
107 |
| 8 |
Miami OH |
-13.5 |
3-5 |
(2-2) |
5 |
109 |
| 9 |
Buffalo |
-14 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
9 |
113 |
| 10 |
Kent State |
-15 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
5 |
116 |
| 11 |
Ball State |
-16.5 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
5 |
120 |
| 12 |
Bowling Green |
-20.5 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
3 |
128 |
CUSA
| 1 |
Marshall |
-1.5 |
6-1 |
(3-0) |
3 |
35 |
| 2 |
FIU |
-5.5 |
4-2 |
(2-1) |
3 |
70 |
| 3 |
Southern Miss |
-6 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
7 |
77 |
| 4 |
FAU |
-6.5 |
4-3 |
(3-0) |
6 |
79 |
| 5 |
UTSA |
-6.75 |
4-2 |
(1-2) |
10 |
T80 |
| 6 |
W Kentucky |
-7 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
82 |
| 7 |
N Texas |
-8.75 |
4-3 |
(3-1) |
13 |
T88 |
| 8 |
UAB |
-10.75 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
5 |
95 |
| 9 |
Louisiana Tech |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
12 |
T97 |
| 10 |
Mid Tennessee |
-14.25 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
7 |
115 |
| 11 |
Old Dominion |
-15.25 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
13 |
117 |
| 12 |
Rice |
-17.25 |
1-6 |
(1-2) |
10 |
122 |
| 13 |
UTEP |
-20.75 |
0-7 |
(0-3) |
7 |
129 |
| 14 |
Charlotte |
-22.25 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
2 |
130 |
Sun Belt
| 1 |
App State |
-3 |
5-2 |
(4-0) |
10 |
54 |
| 2 |
Troy |
-4 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
12 |
60 |
| 3 |
Arkansas St |
-5.75 |
4-2 |
(3-0) |
4 |
74 |
| 4 |
Georgia St |
-8.75 |
3-3 |
(2-1) |
10 |
T88 |
| 5 |
N Mexico St |
-10 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
8 |
92 |
| 6 |
S Alabama |
-10.75 |
3-4 |
(2-1) |
6 |
T93 |
| 7 |
UL Monroe |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(3-2) |
1 |
T97 |
| 8 |
UL Lafayette |
-12.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
2 |
105 |
| 9 |
Idaho |
-16.25 |
2-5 |
(1-3) |
4 |
119 |
| 10 |
GA Southern |
-18.75 |
0-6 |
(0-3) |
8 |
123 |
| 11 |
Texas St |
-19.75 |
1-6 |
(0-3) |
3 |
126 |
| 12 |
Co Carolina |
-20 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
6 |
127 |
Independents
| 1 |
Notre Dame |
6.75 |
6-1 |
(0-0) |
1 |
4 |
| 2 |
Army |
-4.25 |
6-2 |
(0-0) |
2 |
63 |
| 3 |
BYU |
-16 |
1-7 |
(0-0) |
4 |
118 |
| 4 |
Umass |
-19 |
1-6 |
(0-0) |
3 |
124 |
Division Ranks
For those who are even more curious, here are the same analyses but by division instead of conference. I know the plot is a little busy, but it gives a decent idea of how the divisions fall.

| 1 |
Big 10 E |
0.5357 |
| 2 |
SEC W |
-0.3214 |
| 3 |
ACC Atl |
-0.3571 |
| 4 |
Pac 12 S |
-2.0417 |
| 5 |
Big 12 |
-2.1 |
| 6 |
Pac 12 N |
-2.3333 |
| 7 |
SEC E |
-2.4643 |
| 8 |
ACC Coast |
-2.5357 |
| 9 |
Big 10 W |
-3.8929 |
| 10 |
Amer W |
-5.0833 |
| 11 |
MW Moun |
-6.6667 |
| 12 |
Amer E |
-6.875 |
| 13 |
Ind |
-8.125 |
| 14 |
MAC W |
-8.625 |
| 15 |
CUSA E |
-10.3214 |
| 16 |
MW West |
-11.2083 |
| 17 |
CUSA W |
-11.6429 |
| 18 |
S Belt |
-11.7292 |
| 19 |
MAC E |
-13.0417 |
Next are the rankings within every division, as well as each team’s national ranking (now with plots!):
ACC Coastal
| 1 |
Miami |
5.75 |
6-0 |
(4-0) |
4 |
7 |
| 2 |
Virginia Tech |
3.5 |
6-1 |
(2-1) |
4 |
13 |
| 3 |
Georgia Tech |
-0.75 |
4-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
29 |
| 4 |
Virginia |
-3.25 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
2 |
55 |
| 5 |
Pittsburgh |
-4.25 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
3 |
62 |
| 6 |
Duke |
-5.75 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
6 |
71 |
| 7 |
North Carolina |
-13 |
1-7 |
(0-5) |
6 |
106 |

ACC Atlantic
| 1 |
Clemson |
6.5 |
6-1 |
(4-1) |
6 |
5 |
| 2 |
NC State |
2.75 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
2 |
T16 |
| 3 |
Florida State |
-1.5 |
2-4 |
(2-3) |
6 |
34 |
| 4 |
Louisville |
-2.25 |
5-3 |
(2-3) |
3 |
T41 |
| 5 |
Wake Forest |
-2.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
1 |
46 |
| T6 |
Boston College |
-2.75 |
4-4 |
(2-3) |
3 |
T47 |
| 7 |
Syracuse |
-2.75 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
3 |
T47 |

SEC East
| 1 |
Georgia |
7.5 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
1 |
1 |
| 2 |
South Carolina |
-1 |
5-2 |
(3-2) |
1 |
31 |
| 3 |
Florida |
-2.75 |
3-3 |
(3-2) |
4 |
49 |
| 4 |
Kentucky |
-3 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
3 |
T52 |
| 5 |
Tennessee |
-4 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
5 |
59 |
| 6 |
Vanderbilt |
-5 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
6 |
66 |
| 7 |
Missouri |
-9 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
7 |
90 |

SEC West
| 1 |
Alabama |
6 |
8-0 |
(5-0) |
3 |
6 |
| 2 |
Auburn |
2 |
6-2 |
(4-1) |
1 |
19 |
| 3 |
Mississippi St |
1.25 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
5 |
24 |
| 4 |
Texas AM |
0.5 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
3 |
26 |
| 5 |
LSU |
-0.75 |
6-2 |
(3-1) |
2 |
28 |
| 6 |
Ole Miss |
-5.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
6 |
68 |
| 7 |
Arkansas |
-6 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
7 |
76 |

Big 10 East
| 1 |
Penn State |
7.25 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
6 |
2 |
| 2 |
Michigan State |
4.75 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
4 |
8 |
| 3 |
Ohio State |
3.25 |
6-1 |
(4-0) |
3 |
14 |
| 4 |
Michigan |
1.75 |
5-2 |
(2-2) |
5 |
22 |
| 5 |
Indiana |
-2.25 |
3-4 |
(0-4) |
7 |
43 |
| 6 |
Maryland |
-3.5 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
2 |
57 |
| 7 |
Rutgers |
-7.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
1 |
85 |

Big 10 West
| 1 |
Wisconsin |
4.25 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
5 |
10 |
| 2 |
Iowa |
-0.75 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
2 |
30 |
| 3 |
Northwestern |
-2 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
5 |
T39 |
| 4 |
Purdue |
-5.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
7 |
67 |
| 5 |
Minnesota |
-5.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
3 |
69 |
| 6 |
Nebraska |
-5.75 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
4 |
T72 |
| 7 |
Illinois |
-12.25 |
2-5 |
(0-4) |
1 |
103 |

Big 12
| 1 |
TCU |
6.75 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
6 |
3 |
| 2 |
Oklahoma |
4 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
3 |
11 |
| 3 |
OK State |
3.75 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
6 |
12 |
| 4 |
West Virginia |
1 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
25 |
| 5 |
Iowa State |
-0.25 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
27 |
| 6 |
Texas Tech |
-2.25 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
3 |
T41 |
| 7 |
Texas |
-2.75 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
10 |
50 |
| 8 |
Kansas State |
-4.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
6 |
61 |
| 9 |
Baylor |
-13.5 |
0-7 |
(0-4) |
6 |
108 |
| 10 |
Kansas |
-13.5 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
5 |
110 |

Pac 12 North
| 1 |
Washington St |
2.75 |
7-1 |
(4-1) |
2 |
T16 |
| 2 |
Washington |
1.75 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
2 |
20 |
| 3 |
Stanford |
1.75 |
5-2 |
(4-1) |
1 |
21 |
| 4 |
California |
-4 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
6 |
58 |
| 5 |
Oregon |
-4.5 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
5 |
64 |
| 6 |
Oregon State |
-11.75 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
4 |
101 |

Pac 12 South
| 1 |
USC |
3 |
6-2 |
(4-1) |
5 |
15 |
| 2 |
Arizona St |
-1.5 |
4-3 |
(3-1) |
6 |
33 |
| 3 |
UCLA |
-2 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
2 |
T39 |
| 4 |
Arizona |
-2.5 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
3 |
45 |
| 5 |
Utah |
-3.5 |
4-3 |
(1-3) |
1 |
56 |
| 6 |
Colorado |
-5.75 |
4-4 |
(1-4) |
4 |
T72 |

American East
| 1 |
UCF |
4.5 |
6-0 |
(4-0) |
3 |
9 |
| 2 |
S Florida |
2 |
7-0 |
(4-0) |
2 |
18 |
| 3 |
Temple |
-11 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
1 |
96 |
| 4 |
Uconn |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(2-3) |
4 |
T97 |
| 5 |
Cincinnati |
-12 |
2-6 |
(0-4) |
6 |
102 |
| 6 |
E Carolina |
-13.5 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
5 |
111 |

American West
| 1 |
Memphis |
1.5 |
6-1 |
(3-1) |
6 |
23 |
| 2 |
Navy |
-1.75 |
5-2 |
(3-2) |
4 |
T37 |
| 3 |
SMU |
-2.75 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
1 |
51 |
| 4 |
Houston |
-6 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
3 |
75 |
| 5 |
Tulane |
-7.25 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
5 |
84 |
| 6 |
Tulsa |
-14.25 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
1 |
114 |

MW Mountain
| 1 |
Boise State |
-1.75 |
5-2 |
(3-0) |
5 |
T37 |
| 2 |
Colorado St |
-2.25 |
6-2 |
(4-0) |
3 |
44 |
| 3 |
Wyoming |
-7 |
4-3 |
(2-1) |
6 |
83 |
| 4 |
Air Force |
-8.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
2 |
86 |
| 5 |
Utah State |
-9.25 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
3 |
91 |
| 6 |
New Mexico |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
1 |
T97 |

MW West
| 1 |
Fresno St |
-1.5 |
5-2 |
(4-0) |
4 |
36 |
| 2 |
San Diego St |
-3 |
6-2 |
(2-2) |
5 |
T52 |
| 3 |
Hawaii |
-12.25 |
3-4 |
(1-3) |
3 |
104 |
| 4 |
UNLV |
-13.75 |
2-5 |
(1-3) |
6 |
112 |
| 5 |
Nevada |
-17.25 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
1 |
121 |
| 6 |
San Jose St |
-19.5 |
1-7 |
(0-4) |
2 |
125 |

MAC East
| 1 |
Ohio |
-6.75 |
6-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
T80 |
| 2 |
Akron |
-8.5 |
4-4 |
(3-1) |
3 |
87 |
| 3 |
Miami OH |
-13.5 |
3-5 |
(2-2) |
3 |
109 |
| 4 |
Buffalo |
-14 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
6 |
113 |
| 5 |
Kent State |
-15 |
2-6 |
(1-3) |
3 |
116 |
| 6 |
Bowling Green |
-20.5 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
2 |
128 |

MAC West
| 1 |
Toledo |
-1 |
6-1 |
(3-0) |
5 |
32 |
| 2 |
N Illinois |
-4.5 |
5-2 |
(3-0) |
4 |
65 |
| 3 |
W Michigan |
-6 |
5-3 |
(3-1) |
1 |
78 |
| 4 |
C Michigan |
-10.75 |
4-4 |
(2-2) |
2 |
T93 |
| 5 |
E Michigan |
-13 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
6 |
107 |
| 6 |
Ball State |
-16.5 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
3 |
120 |

C-USA East
| 1 |
Marshall |
-1.5 |
6-1 |
(3-0) |
3 |
35 |
| 2 |
FIU |
-5.5 |
4-2 |
(2-1) |
3 |
70 |
| 3 |
FAU |
-6.5 |
4-3 |
(3-0) |
5 |
79 |
| 4 |
W Kentucky |
-7 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
1 |
82 |
| 5 |
Mid Tennessee |
-14.25 |
3-5 |
(1-3) |
6 |
115 |
| 6 |
Old Dominion |
-15.25 |
2-5 |
(0-3) |
7 |
117 |
| 7 |
Charlotte |
-22.25 |
1-7 |
(1-3) |
2 |
130 |

C-USA West
| 1 |
Southern Miss |
-6 |
5-2 |
(3-1) |
2 |
77 |
| 2 |
UTSA |
-6.75 |
4-2 |
(1-2) |
4 |
T80 |
| 3 |
N Texas |
-8.75 |
4-3 |
(3-1) |
7 |
T88 |
| 4 |
UAB |
-10.75 |
4-3 |
(2-2) |
1 |
95 |
| 5 |
Louisiana Tech |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
6 |
T97 |
| 6 |
Rice |
-17.25 |
1-6 |
(1-2) |
4 |
122 |
| 7 |
UTEP |
-20.75 |
0-7 |
(0-3) |
2 |
129 |

Sun Belt
| 1 |
App State |
-3 |
5-2 |
(4-0) |
10 |
54 |
| 2 |
Troy |
-4 |
5-2 |
(2-1) |
12 |
60 |
| 3 |
Arkansas St |
-5.75 |
4-2 |
(3-0) |
4 |
74 |
| 4 |
Georgia St |
-8.75 |
3-3 |
(2-1) |
10 |
T88 |
| 5 |
N Mexico St |
-10 |
3-4 |
(1-2) |
8 |
92 |
| 6 |
S Alabama |
-10.75 |
3-4 |
(2-1) |
6 |
T93 |
| 7 |
UL Monroe |
-11.25 |
3-4 |
(3-2) |
1 |
T97 |
| 8 |
UL Lafayette |
-12.5 |
3-4 |
(2-2) |
2 |
105 |
| 9 |
Idaho |
-16.25 |
2-5 |
(1-3) |
4 |
119 |
| 10 |
GA Southern |
-18.75 |
0-6 |
(0-3) |
8 |
123 |
| 11 |
Texas St |
-19.75 |
1-6 |
(0-3) |
3 |
126 |
| 12 |
Co Carolina |
-20 |
1-6 |
(0-4) |
6 |
127 |

Independents
| 1 |
Notre Dame |
6.75 |
6-1 |
(0-0) |
1 |
4 |
| 2 |
Army |
-4.25 |
6-2 |
(0-0) |
2 |
63 |
| 3 |
BYU |
-16 |
1-7 |
(0-0) |
4 |
118 |
| 4 |
Umass |
-19 |
1-6 |
(0-0) |
3 |
124 |
