Snowbirds, simply defined as “one who travels to warm climes for the winter” per Merriam Webster, inhibit a migratory pattern come the colder winter months that, a state like Maine, has a strong tendency offering. Scientists have taken a particular interest in this behavior, and in January 2016 researchers began observing approximately 445,827 various flight patterns across the United States.
Limiting their research specifically to the Northeastern Snowbird (as defined by the Census Bureau as Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhodes Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania), scientists narrowed their dataset from 445,827 to 50,575 flights that originated in the Northeast throughout January. What scientists soon uncovered though, was that 11,1333 of those flights (almost 25%) were to the warm and sunny state of Florida.
In an attempt to capture a Northeastern Snowbird in flight en route to Florida, analysts combed through historic data to identify the optimal day of week to spot a Snowbird in flight. What they soon uncovered was that Friday was the most likely day of the week that these Snowbirds would begin their migration South [Ed. Note: Sunday and Saturday were also top contenders].
As scientists uncovered which days Snowbirds were most likely to depart the harsh winter for more habitable warmer temperatures, their next discovery was in trying to locate which Floridian destinations these Snowbirds were traveling to exactly. Based on the same data set of 11,133 flight patterns leaving the Northeast, they observed that destinations such as Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Miami were amongst some of the most top-visited ecosystems. Theories have swirled that many Snowbirds have migrated in and around Disney, causing such high volume in and around Orlando.
Lastly, what scientists tried to account for was the conditions provided to determine whether these Snowbirds would return to the Northeast. To do so, they mathematically calculated a “Happiness Factor” which considered that for a Snowbird to truly be happy with their migratory pattern they would have to get to their destination as soon as possible being as efficient in the air as they possibly can. To factor for that scientists established the following theorem:
What was identified were that some flight paths drove considerably high levels of Happiness when compared to others. In fact, scientists hypothesized that the further north the origin location perhaps the greater levels of happiness transpired - this theory was later proven inaccurate (as seen in Table 3.2). Perhaps a state of euphoria transpired in simply escaping the cold. The top five Flight Courses, based on their Happiness Factor, are listed in the table below.
[Ed. Note: Scientists are reexamining the Boston to Fort Lauderdale Happiness Factor to possibly account for an overnight/past midnight arrival that may be ineffectively skewing the results.]
| Flight | Course | Trip_Distance | Avg_AirSpeed_mph | HappinessFactor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B6 #2019 | Boston to Fort Lauderdale | 1237 | 356.8 | 12833.9 |
| B6 #1511 | Poughkeepsie to Fort Myers | 1120 | 425.3 | 3138.8 |
| UA #711 | Newark to Fort Lauderdale | 1065 | 359.1 | 1646.3 |
| B6 #499 | New York to Orlando | 950 | 340.1 | 1000.0 |
| B6 #2227 | Newark to Orlando | 937 | 339.0 | 615.0 |
On the flip side of this, scientists were curious to look into which locations scored the lowest when ranked by their Happiness Factor. It was no surprise to them that Snowbirds hailing from the Newark, New Jersey area were amongst some of the lowest Happiness Factor scoring … which, lets be honest, sounds about right. Hey-OH!
| Flight | Course | Trip_Distance | Avg_AirSpeed_mph | HappinessFactor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA #1972 | Newark to Fort Lauderdale | 1065 | 394.4 | 0.0 |
| UA #641 | Newark to West Palm Beach | 1023 | 366.3 | 0.0 |
| UA #1919 | Newark to Tampa | 997 | 339.9 | 1.0 |
| B6 #2251 | Boston to Orlando | 1121 | 346.0 | 1.6 |
| B6 #153 | New York to West Palm Beach | 1028 | 336.7 | 2.1 |