Over the past few years I have created a straightforward way to rank college football teams. Basically, I wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare resumes of different teams. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.
Basic Idea
I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:
Bin 3: Elite teams, the cream of the crop. Typically the top 6-8 teams in the country. (e.g. Alabama, Oklahoma)
Bin 2: Teams that are “solidly ranked.” Not quite elite, but clearly top 25. (e.g. Louisville, Miami, Auburn)
Bin 1: Teams that are “borderline ranked.” You certainly can make a case they are a top 25 team, but certainly can make the case they are not. (e.g. West Virginia, Notre Dame, NC State)
Bin 0: Teams that are “solidly unranked.” Decent teams that have a pulse, but are not considered close to being top 25. (e.g. Minnesota, Arkansas, Wake Forest)
Bin -1: Starting to get a little worse here. Slightly above-average non-Power 5 teams and below average Power-5 teams are often found here. (e.g. Western Michigan, Illinois, SMU)
Bin -2: Bad/average non-Power 5 teams, and REALLY bad Power 5 teams. (e.g. Florida Atlantic, Ball State, Kansas)
Bin -3: Really really bad. There are typically about 10 of these. (e.g. Georgia State, UMass)
If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc. For example, Washington I would argue is not quite elite yet, but seems to be close enough where a 2.5 bin is warranted.
This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.
The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 22 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.
So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses. For example, Oklahoma is tied for 5th in my rankings with 5 points. They are in bin 3, and received 2 points for beating Ohio State on the road by a non-blowout score (OSU is currently in bin 2). None of their other wins were good enough to warrant any points. Therefore, Oklahoma’s score is 3 + 2 = 5.
Week 5: Clesmon and Alabama on Collision Course
One of the best things about college football is the vast amount of teams at the FBS level. Every season, 130 different teams come in with high aspirations, many with national title hopes. The sheer volume of different contenders is appealing. However, the recent dominance of two programs, Alabama and Clemson, is starting to chip away at the “anyone can win it” spirit. The two teams have of course met in the past two national title games, and everything is pointing towards a third clash between the teams. When did college football become the Warriors vs. Cavs in the NBA??
Alabama is not new to the “dynasty” scene. However, what Clemson has done to join the Tide at the top is remarkable. The Tigers are 36-2 over the past 38 games and have beaten three top-15 teams already this season, the first team to ever do that in September. Their three great wins (two of which came on the road) put them way in first place in this week’s rankings, and they clearly have the best body of work. Kelly Bryant’s seemingly effortless takeover of Deshaun Watson’s role has complemented the most dominant defense in the country (or at least top 2 in the country, Bama is up there too).
Speaking of Alabama, they actually come in at 3rd in this week’s rankings, behind red-hot Georgia. The formula that creates my rankings does not heavily use margin of victory, therefore the total dismemberment of Vanderbilt (59-0) and Ole Miss (66-3) at the hands of Alabama is not reflected in my rankings. Sure, Alabama gets some credit for those wins (especially the Vandy win which was on the road), but they don’t get the “style points” that come with the beatdowns they’ve been having. The collection of teams Bama has beaten this season really isn’t that impressive, especially since FSU has struggled. Hence the slightly low 3rd-place ranking. Still, something tells me we’ll be seeing the Crimson Tide continue to dominate and rise up the rankings.
The scariest part about these two teams is that their remaining schedules are not very daunting. Clemson only has one more game against an AP top 25 team (NC State), but still plays FSU, GT, and the potential ACC Championship game. Not too difficult, especially considering they’ve already beaten three ranked teams. With the inconsistencies in the SEC, Alabama also only has one ranked team left on their schedule (Auburn) plus potentially Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship. In fact, Alabama has not played a ranked team yet this season, meaning Auburn is the only top 25 team on the entire ledger this year. Pretty amazing for an SEC West team that played the preseason 3rd ranked team to start the year.
Given the reputations of these programs, either would probably get in the playoff in they win their respective conferences, even if they lose a game somewhere down the line. It seems the only realistic way one of these teams does not make the playoff is if one of them loses a game to a team that steals the division spot and prevents Alabama or Clemson to play for a conference championship. For example, if Auburn enters the Iron Bowl with one or zero SEC losses, that game against Alabama would decide the winner of the SEC West. So a Bama slip there may cost the team the conference chamiponship, and potentially a playoff spot as well. That being said, Ohio State reached the playoffs last year without winning their division, so anything can happen.
Here are the Week 5 rankings:
Rank
Team
Score
Record
Conf
Prev Rank
Rem Sched Rank
1
Clemson
9
5-0
(3-0)
1
60
2
Georgia
6
5-0
(2-0)
2
40
3
Alabama
5.25
5-0
(2-0)
T5
60
4
TCU
5.25
4-0
(1-0)
3
51
5
Oklahoma
5
4-0
(1-0)
T5
23
6
Penn State
4.75
5-0
(2-0)
8
40
7
Michigan
4.5
4-0
(1-0)
7
17
8
Washington St
3.75
5-0
(2-0)
T18
23
9
OK State
3.75
4-1
(1-1)
16
52
10
Washington
3.5
5-0
(2-0)
9
18
11
USC
3.5
4-1
(2-1)
4
55
12
Miami
3.25
3-0
(1-0)
T18
33
13
San Diego St
3
5-0
(1-0)
10
110
14
Florida
3
3-1
(3-0)
13
60
T15
Virginia Tech
2.75
4-1
(0-1)
11
52
T15
Ohio State
2.75
4-1
(2-0)
12
18
T15
Auburn
2.75
4-1
(2-0)
22
33
18
UCF
2.75
3-0
(1-0)
T28
73
19
Wisconsin
2.5
4-0
(1-0)
15
48
20
Louisville
2.5
4-1
(1-1)
14
52
21
S Florida
2
5-0
(2-0)
21
70
22
Notre Dame
2
4-1
(0-0)
20
14
23
Utah
1.5
4-0
(1-0)
24
2
24
NC State
1.25
4-1
(2-0)
27
23
25
Texas Tech
0.75
3-1
(0-1)
26
33
26
West Virginia
0.5
3-1
(1-0)
32
6
27
Navy
0.5
4-0
(2-0)
T35
68
28
Stanford
0.5
3-2
(2-1)
30
10
29
Florida State
0.25
1-2
(1-1)
41
23
30
Duke
0.25
4-1
(1-1)
17
48
31
Oregon
0
4-1
(1-1)
T47
23
32
Georgia Tech
-0.5
3-1
(2-0)
T47
1
T33
Wake Forest
-0.5
4-1
(1-1)
T28
4
T33
Kentucky
-0.5
4-1
(1-1)
T39
40
T33
Texas AM
-0.5
4-1
(2-0)
T45
18
T33
Maryland
-0.5
3-1
(1-0)
T50
2
T37
Vanderbilt
-0.5
3-2
(0-2)
34
60
T37
Indiana
-0.5
2-2
(0-2)
37
48
T39
Tennessee
-0.75
3-2
(0-2)
T39
55
T39
Mississippi St
-0.75
3-2
(1-2)
23
65
T39
Purdue
-0.75
2-2
(0-1)
43
60
42
Kansas State
-1
3-1
(1-0)
44
6
T43
Troy
-1
4-1
(1-0)
69
128
T43
Michigan State
-1
3-1
(1-0)
T50
14
T43
Memphis
-1
3-1
(0-1)
25
78
T46
Iowa
-1.25
3-2
(0-2)
33
33
T46
California
-1.25
3-2
(0-2)
31
40
48
SMU
-1.25
4-1
(1-0)
49
66
49
Virginia
-1.5
3-1
(0-0)
T50
18
50
Toledo
-1.5
3-1
(0-0)
54
110
51
UTSA
-1.5
3-0
(0-0)
55
128
52
Arkansas
-1.75
2-2
(0-1)
56
55
53
Minnesota
-2
3-1
(0-1)
T35
30
54
Texas
-2
2-2
(1-0)
T57
10
T55
UCLA
-2.25
3-2
(1-1)
61
14
T55
Colorado
-2.25
3-2
(0-2)
42
33
57
Houston
-2.25
3-1
(1-0)
62
67
58
Ole Miss
-2.25
2-2
(0-1)
59
55
T59
South Carolina
-2.5
3-2
(1-2)
T45
23
T59
Northwestern
-2.5
2-2
(0-1)
T50
45
61
Boise State
-2.5
2-2
(1-0)
70
91
62
Colorado St
-2.5
3-2
(1-0)
T64
95
63
Marshall
-2.5
3-1
(0-0)
67
121
64
App State
-2.75
2-2
(1-0)
68
130
65
Pittsburgh
-2.75
2-3
(0-1)
71
23
66
Arizona St
-3
2-3
(1-1)
T57
30
67
W Michigan
-3
3-2
(1-0)
T64
95
68
Tulane
-3
2-2
(0-0)
72
73
69
Nebraska
-3.5
3-2
(2-0)
83
4
70
Ohio
-3.5
4-1
(1-0)
73
110
71
Fresno St
-3.5
2-2
(1-0)
77
84
72
LSU
-3.75
3-2
(0-1)
38
10
73
N Illinois
-4
2-2
(0-0)
T75
116
74
FIU
-4
2-1
(2-0)
82
88
75
Iowa State
-4.5
2-2
(0-1)
63
10
T76
Illinois
-4.5
2-2
(0-1)
60
45
T76
Arizona
-4.5
2-2
(0-1)
80
33
78
Army
-4.75
3-2
(0-0)
85
78
79
Utah State
-5
3-2
(1-0)
88
83
80
Wyoming
-5.25
3-2
(1-0)
T90
88
81
Air Force
-5.25
1-3
(0-2)
T64
86
T82
Louisiana Tech
-5.5
3-2
(1-0)
87
119
T82
N Texas
-5.5
3-2
(2-0)
T97
110
T82
Arkansas St
-5.5
1-2
(0-0)
T92
125
85
Syracuse
-5.75
2-3
(0-1)
78
6
86
Boston College
-5.75
2-3
(0-2)
89
33
T87
E Michigan
-5.75
2-2
(0-1)
79
102
T87
Southern Miss
-5.75
2-2
(0-1)
T75
123
T89
Buffalo
-5.75
3-2
(1-0)
T94
95
T89
Old Dominion
-5.75
2-2
(0-0)
T94
123
91
Cincinnati
-6
2-3
(0-1)
74
71
T92
New Mexico
-6.25
3-2
(1-1)
107
75
T92
W Kentucky
-6.25
2-2
(0-1)
99
121
94
UL Monroe
-6.25
2-2
(2-0)
T94
82
95
UNLV
-6.5
2-2
(1-0)
104
102
96
Akron
-6.5
2-3
(1-0)
108
91
97
Temple
-6.75
2-3
(0-2)
81
75
98
Georgia St
-6.75
1-2
(0-0)
105
119
99
North Carolina
-7
1-4
(0-3)
86
40
100
Missouri
-7
1-3
(0-2)
T109
59
101
N Mexico St
-7
2-3
(0-1)
T97
106
102
FAU
-7.25
2-3
(1-0)
113
106
103
Idaho
-7.5
2-2
(1-0)
112
110
104
Rutgers
-7.5
1-4
(0-2)
100
18
105
Oregon State
-7.75
1-4
(0-2)
T109
45
106
UAB
-7.75
2-2
(0-1)
117
102
107
Mid Tennessee
-8
2-3
(0-1)
T90
125
108
Tulsa
-8.25
1-4
(0-2)
106
69
109
Miami OH
-8.5
2-3
(1-0)
103
116
110
Ball State
-8.75
2-3
(0-1)
101
88
111
E Carolina
-9
1-4
(1-1)
116
81
T112
Hawaii
-9.25
2-3
(0-2)
T92
95
T112
C Michigan
-9.25
2-3
(0-1)
111
86
T112
Kansas
-9.25
1-3
(0-1)
119
6
115
BYU
-9.25
1-4
(0-0)
84
116
116
Kent State
-9.5
1-4
(0-1)
102
95
117
GA Southern
-9.5
0-3
(0-0)
120
125
118
Uconn
-9.75
1-3
(0-2)
115
78
119
UL Lafayette
-10
1-3
(0-1)
122
110
120
S Alabama
-10
1-4
(0-1)
114
106
121
Baylor
-10.75
0-5
(0-2)
118
30
122
Rice
-12
1-4
(1-1)
121
95
123
Co Carolina
-12.5
1-3
(0-1)
124
95
124
Texas St
-12.75
1-4
(0-1)
123
106
125
San Jose St
-13
1-5
(0-2)
125
84
126
Nevada
-14
0-5
(0-1)
126
77
127
UTEP
-14.75
0-5
(0-1)
128
91
128
Bowling Green
-15.25
0-5
(0-1)
127
91
129
Charlotte
-17.25
0-5
(0-1)
129
102
130
Umass
-18.25
0-6
(0-0)
130
71
Interesting Plot of the Week
LSU should not lose to Troy. It just shouldn’t happen. That being said, Troy is actually not a horrible team. The Trojans went 10-3 last year, and lost to the National Champion Clemson Tigers just 30-24 early in the year. Their only loss so far this year was a 24-13 setback at Boise State early in the year, so they actually end up in the top 50 of my rankings this week. LSU, on the other hand, falls way down into the 70’s. They have no quality win (sorry, BYU definitely does not count) and their blowout loss to Mississippi State looks worse and worse by the week. They are probably better than a lot of teams ahead of them in my rankings (including in-state opponent Tulane!), but their resume screams “70’s” right now.
I am also including Central Florida in this plot, since they have shot up the rankings with two big wins the past two weeks.
Conference Ranks: Despite Struggles, SEC Still First
The SEC is taking a lot of heat right now. The struggles at LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, and others is fun to watch, but the conference is still among the top in the country. My rankings has it #1, even though its lead isn’t as big as it’s been. The conference, despite the drama, had a solid nonconference performance (except for LSU vs. Troy of course!). Don’t forget that Alabama beat FSU, Vanderbilt beat Kansas St, South Carolina beat NC State, Tennessee beat Georgia Tech, and Georgia beat Notre Dame. The conference is not as dominant as it once was, but it is still arguably as good as any other conference. I can’t believe I’m defending the SEC…
Rank
Conf
Avg
1
SEC
-0.2321
2
ACC
-0.3214
3
Big 10
-0.6786
4
Pac 12
-0.6875
5
Big 12
-1.225
6
Amer
-3.5
7
MW
-5.8333
8
MAC
-6.7708
9
CUSA
-7.4107
10
Ind
-7.5625
11
S Belt
-7.625
Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:
ACC: Miami Ready to Shine
Last week I highighted that both Duke and Wake were undefeated and looking pretty good. Well, they promptly both lost this week, preserving some balance in the universe. Duke got beat up at home by Miami, who we haven’t seen much of this season but has really shined so far. The U features a new starting QB in Malik Rosier who has looked good so far, and a scary, talented defense that held Duke to 6 points. They have kind of slipped under the radar due to a soft opening scedule and Hurricane Irma, but they were favored to win the Costal division for a reason, and have done nothing but impress so far. We’ll learn more about the Canes this weekend when they play at FSU. Is the U finally “back?”
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Clemson
9
5-0
(3-0)
14
1
2
Miami
3.25
3-0
(1-0)
8
12
3
Virginia Tech
2.75
4-1
(0-1)
12
T15
4
Louisville
2.5
4-1
(1-1)
12
20
5
NC State
1.25
4-1
(2-0)
5
24
6
Florida State
0.25
1-2
(1-1)
5
29
7
Duke
0.25
4-1
(1-1)
11
30
8
Georgia Tech
-0.5
3-1
(2-0)
1
32
9
Wake Forest
-0.5
4-1
(1-1)
2
T33
10
Virginia
-1.5
3-1
(0-0)
4
49
11
Pittsburgh
-2.75
2-3
(0-1)
5
65
12
Syracuse
-5.75
2-3
(0-1)
3
85
13
Boston College
-5.75
2-3
(0-2)
8
86
14
North Carolina
-7
1-4
(0-3)
10
99
Big 10: Maryland Roller Coaster
I talked last week about how the Big 10 had four great teams and a bunch of confusion after that. Could Maryland be the conference’s 5th best team? My rankings say that they have currently have the cobference’s 5th best body of work. The Terps have two nice road wins - at Texas and at Minnesota this past week. I ruled them dead after Week 4, when they got smoked by UCF at home and lost their second string QB for the season. In response, they went out and beat a previously-unbeaten Minnesota team to get to 3-1 on the year. They’ll probably get toasted by Ohio State this Saturday, but they have some impressive road wins this season.
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Penn State
4.75
5-0
(2-0)
9
6
2
Michigan
4.5
4-0
(1-0)
4
7
3
Ohio State
2.75
4-1
(2-0)
5
T15
4
Wisconsin
2.5
4-0
(1-0)
12
19
5
Maryland
-0.5
3-1
(1-0)
1
T33
6
Indiana
-0.5
2-2
(0-2)
12
T37
7
Purdue
-0.75
2-2
(0-1)
14
T39
8
Michigan State
-1
3-1
(1-0)
3
T43
9
Iowa
-1.25
3-2
(0-2)
8
T46
10
Minnesota
-2
3-1
(0-1)
7
53
11
Northwestern
-2.5
2-2
(0-1)
10
T59
12
Nebraska
-3.5
3-2
(2-0)
2
69
13
Illinois
-4.5
2-2
(0-1)
10
T76
14
Rutgers
-7.5
1-4
(0-2)
5
104
SEC: Florida has an Impressive Resume
The SEC has some struggling teams right now. Tennessee and LSU are at the top of that list, but many pundits are including Florida in the group of disappointments. However, the Gators have a sneaky-good resume thus far, resulting in them being ranked much higher in my rankings relative to human polls. UF is sort of like a reverse Alabama: Bama has destroyed mediocre teams in dominating fashion, while UF has beaten some pretty good teams in very lackluster ways. Since my method ignores the style points (or lack thereof) and focuses on actual wins/losses, the Gators have been rewarded well in my system. Their wins include Tennessee, at Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Those three teams are not worldbeaters, but having three solid wins like that at this point of the season is not horrible. Remember, Tennessee did beat GT, Vandy beat KSU, and Kentucky won at a South Carolina team that took down NC State.
Do I think Florida is an amazing team? Not really, but they have three quality wins and a forgivable loss (to Michigan). Can Wisconsin, Louisville, or Ohio State (teams currently behind UF in my rankings but ahead of them in the AP poll) say the same thing?
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Georgia
6
5-0
(2-0)
5
2
2
Alabama
5.25
5-0
(2-0)
11
3
3
Florida
3
3-1
(3-0)
11
14
4
Auburn
2.75
4-1
(2-0)
4
T15
T5
Kentucky
-0.5
4-1
(1-1)
5
T33
T5
Texas AM
-0.5
4-1
(2-0)
2
T33
7
Vanderbilt
-0.5
3-2
(0-2)
11
T37
T8
Tennessee
-0.75
3-2
(0-2)
7
T39
T8
Mississippi St
-0.75
3-2
(1-2)
14
T39
10
Arkansas
-1.75
2-2
(0-1)
7
52
11
Ole Miss
-2.25
2-2
(0-1)
7
58
12
South Carolina
-2.5
3-2
(1-2)
3
T59
13
LSU
-3.75
3-2
(0-1)
1
72
14
Missouri
-7
1-3
(0-2)
10
100
Big 12: West Virginia Test Coming
After losing to Virginia Tech in Week 1, West Virginia has disappeared into a soft schedule that included East Carolina, Delaware State, and Kansas. The Mounatineers have actually looked really good destroying these cupcakes, but my system hasn’t bought in (WV is stuck at 26th in this week’s rankings). This week West Virginia goes at TCU, so we will see how Will Grier and company really are. I think their offense is going to be very impressive, but how will their defense hold up against a red-hot Kenny Hill and Darius Anderson?
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
TCU
5.25
4-0
(1-0)
9
4
2
Oklahoma
5
4-0
(1-0)
6
5
3
OK State
3.75
4-1
(1-1)
10
9
4
Texas Tech
0.75
3-1
(0-1)
8
25
5
West Virginia
0.5
3-1
(1-0)
1
26
6
Kansas State
-1
3-1
(1-0)
1
42
7
Texas
-2
2-2
(1-0)
4
54
8
Iowa State
-4.5
2-2
(0-1)
4
75
9
Kansas
-9.25
1-3
(0-1)
1
T112
10
Baylor
-10.75
0-5
(0-2)
7
121
Pac 12: Gotta Love Love
If you haven’t noticed, Stanford running back Bryce Love has been putting up ridiculous numbers out west. In just 5 games, Christian McCaffrey’s replacement already has over 1,000 rushing yards after gouging Arizona State for 301 yards this past Saturday. Love, who is averaging 11.1 (!) yards per carry so far, already has more 20+ yard rushes than McCaffrey did ALL of last year. He is putting up Heisman-level numbers for the Cardinal, who is the the highest ranked two-loss team in this week’s rankings.
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Washington St
3.75
5-0
(2-0)
5
8
2
Washington
3.5
5-0
(2-0)
4
10
3
USC
3.5
4-1
(2-1)
12
11
4
Utah
1.5
4-0
(1-0)
1
23
5
Stanford
0.5
3-2
(2-1)
2
28
6
Oregon
0
4-1
(1-1)
5
31
7
California
-1.25
3-2
(0-2)
10
T46
T8
UCLA
-2.25
3-2
(1-1)
3
T55
T8
Colorado
-2.25
3-2
(0-2)
8
T55
10
Arizona St
-3
2-3
(1-1)
7
66
11
Arizona
-4.5
2-2
(0-1)
8
T76
12
Oregon State
-7.75
1-4
(0-2)
11
105
American: Navy Still Undefeated
There are three undefeated teams remaining in the American: the preseason favorite South Florida, the hot team of the week Central Florida, and… Navy? The Midshipmen have been very consistent over the past few years, and have a silent undefeated start thus far. Have they beaten anyone of note? No, but their offensive style is always a challenge and they’ve done well. They almost crack my top 25 due to their clean resume, coming in at 27th.
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
UCF
2.75
3-0
(1-0)
7
18
2
S Florida
2
5-0
(2-0)
5
21
3
Navy
0.5
4-0
(2-0)
3
27
4
Memphis
-1
3-1
(0-1)
10
T43
5
SMU
-1.25
4-1
(1-0)
1
48
6
Houston
-2.25
3-1
(1-0)
2
57
7
Tulane
-3
2-2
(0-0)
7
68
8
Cincinnati
-6
2-3
(0-1)
6
91
9
Temple
-6.75
2-3
(0-2)
9
97
10
Tulsa
-8.25
1-4
(0-2)
4
108
11
E Carolina
-9
1-4
(1-1)
12
111
12
Uconn
-9.75
1-3
(0-2)
10
118
Mountain West: Fresno State’s Rankings
The one team that I have been the most frustrated with the way my rankings have treated it so far is Fresno State. The Bulldogs were not supposed to be very good this year, but are curretly 71st in this week’s rankings, which, coincindentally, is one spot above LSU! However, their resume is a perfect example of how my system should not be used for predictive purposes. Fresno State is currently 2-2, with their two losses being beatdowns at Alabama and Washington. Their two wins are… Incarnate Word and Nevada. The logic that my system uses is that we really haven’t learned anything about Fresno State this season; they’ve won against teams they were supposed to beat, and have gotten creamed by their tough opponents. Since none of their games have been particularly informative, my system has kind of kept them around the middle of pack, at least until they start playing some more intriguing games. Still, I’m not really pleased how they get spit out in my rankings. Florida International is another team with a similar situation.
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
San Diego St
3
5-0
(1-0)
12
13
2
Boise State
-2.5
2-2
(1-0)
8
61
3
Colorado St
-2.5
3-2
(1-0)
9
62
4
Fresno St
-3.5
2-2
(1-0)
4
71
5
Utah State
-5
3-2
(1-0)
3
79
6
Wyoming
-5.25
3-2
(1-0)
7
80
7
Air Force
-5.25
1-3
(0-2)
6
81
8
New Mexico
-6.25
3-2
(1-1)
1
T92
9
UNLV
-6.5
2-2
(1-0)
11
95
10
Hawaii
-9.25
2-3
(0-2)
9
T112
11
San Jose St
-13
1-5
(0-2)
4
125
12
Nevada
-14
0-5
(0-1)
2
126
MAC: Some Impressive Losses
The most noteworthy encouraging results from the MAC this weekend came from two losses. Northern Illinois, already with a win at Nebraska, nearly upset San Diego State on the road, and Eastern Michigan lost a close 24-20 game at Kentucky. Some teams in the MAC - namely Toledo, W Michigan, E Michigan, N Illinois, and Ohio - have a pulse this year. Everyone else, meh… Also, for those who care, there is a HUGE difference between divisions, where the West division is far superior to the East.
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Toledo
-1.5
3-1
(0-0)
9
50
2
W Michigan
-3
3-2
(1-0)
5
67
3
Ohio
-3.5
4-1
(1-0)
9
70
4
N Illinois
-4
2-2
(0-0)
11
73
5
E Michigan
-5.75
2-2
(0-1)
8
T87
6
Buffalo
-5.75
3-2
(1-0)
5
T89
7
Akron
-6.5
2-3
(1-0)
3
96
8
Miami OH
-8.5
2-3
(1-0)
11
109
9
Ball State
-8.75
2-3
(0-1)
2
110
10
C Michigan
-9.25
2-3
(0-1)
1
T112
11
Kent State
-9.5
1-4
(0-1)
5
116
12
Bowling Green
-15.25
0-5
(0-1)
3
128
CUSA: UTSA Undefeated
Let’s give some props to the UTSA Roadrunners, who have the last remaining undefeated record in the CUSA. UTSA was able to win at Baylor earlier this year, so they were at least able to snag one win over Power 5 opposition. They come in at 51st in my rankings this week, making them (by a pretty large margin) the lowest-ranked undefeated team in the country.
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
UTSA
-1.5
3-0
(0-0)
14
51
2
Marshall
-2.5
3-1
(0-0)
9
63
3
FIU
-4
2-1
(2-0)
1
74
T4
Louisiana Tech
-5.5
3-2
(1-0)
8
T82
T4
N Texas
-5.5
3-2
(2-0)
7
T82
6
Southern Miss
-5.75
2-2
(0-1)
11
T87
7
Old Dominion
-5.75
2-2
(0-0)
11
T89
8
W Kentucky
-6.25
2-2
(0-1)
9
T92
9
FAU
-7.25
2-3
(1-0)
6
102
10
UAB
-7.75
2-2
(0-1)
4
106
11
Mid Tennessee
-8
2-3
(0-1)
13
107
12
Rice
-12
1-4
(1-1)
3
122
13
UTEP
-14.75
0-5
(0-1)
2
127
14
Charlotte
-17.25
0-5
(0-1)
4
129
Sun Belt: TROY!!
Here’s Troy University’s awesome tweet following their win at LSU:
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Troy
-1
4-1
(1-0)
11
T43
2
App State
-2.75
2-2
(1-0)
12
64
3
Arkansas St
-5.5
1-2
(0-0)
9
T82
4
UL Monroe
-6.25
2-2
(2-0)
1
94
5
Georgia St
-6.75
1-2
(0-0)
8
98
6
N Mexico St
-7
2-3
(0-1)
3
101
7
Idaho
-7.5
2-2
(1-0)
6
103
8
GA Southern
-9.5
0-3
(0-0)
9
117
9
UL Lafayette
-10
1-3
(0-1)
6
119
10
S Alabama
-10
1-4
(0-1)
3
120
11
Co Carolina
-12.5
1-3
(0-1)
2
123
12
Texas St
-12.75
1-4
(0-1)
3
124
Independents
Notre Dame still looks pretty strong, while the wheels have completely fallen off of BYU’s season. They lost 40-16 against Utah State this weekend, ouch…
Rank
Team
Score
Record
(Conf)
Rem Sched Rank
NatlRank
1
Notre Dame
2
4-1
(0-0)
1
22
2
Army
-4.75
3-2
(0-0)
3
78
3
BYU
-9.25
1-4
(0-0)
4
115
4
Umass
-18.25
0-6
(0-0)
2
130
Bonus Video of the Week
Thanks for reading this far! Here’s a bonus video for the week. Let’s all be like Jim Harbaugh and dive into Week 6…
Division Ranks
For those who are even more curious, here are the same analyses but by division instead of conference. I know the plot is a little busy, but it gives a decent idea of how the divisions fall.
Rank
Div
Avg
1
Big 10 E
0.3571
2
ACC Atl
0.1429
3
SEC W
-0.1429
4
Pac 12 N
-0.2083
5
SEC E
-0.3214
6
ACC Coast
-0.7857
7
Pac 12 S
-1.1667
8
Big 12
-1.225
9
Big 10 W
-1.7143
10
Amer W
-2.5417
11.5
Amer E
-4.4583
11.5
MW Moun
-4.4583
13
MAC W
-5.375
14
MW West
-7.2083
15
CUSA E
-7.2857
16
CUSA W
-7.5357
17
Ind
-7.5625
18
S Belt
-7.625
19
MAC E
-8.1667
Next are the rankings within every division, as well as each team’s national ranking (now with plots!):